PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Data as per yesterday. Plot is number of cumulative deaths versus number of days after 10th death...

Is there a similar graph per capita?

[BernardLanguillier]

Why wouldn't it? It can't reproduce, and its lifespan on various surfaces is just a few days, no?

How do you explain the 86,000 American lives lost to the virus till date?

Don't you think that it's enough of a demonstration that the virus is rather proficient at using human hosts to prograde itself from person to person?

You know, I could understand that some people think that losing another 50,000 extra people is worth it for the sake of the economy. It shows a very different perception of the worth of a human life, but there would be a logic to this.

But your blind denial of the obvious fact that re-opening without taking the right measures is going to cost these lives is just incredible. Like in "cannot be believed".

Since I cannot for a second think that you honestly think what you are saying, the only rational explanation is that your blind devotion to the reelection of Trump is such that you are willing to make yourself look like an idiot for the sake of defending his decisions...

I have rarely seen such a level of blind adoration.

Regards,
Bernard

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Just got back from visiting with my brother...had a couple of beer on his deck and in the morning took my dog for a walk along a nature path by a lake. Locked down does not mean jailed.

Lucky you, in many countries you would be jailed for what you described.

[LesPalenik]

Why wouldn't it? It can't reproduce, and its lifespan on various surfaces is just a few days, no?

So far, that was not case. From the existing observations it seems that the virus is very adept at jumping to other hosts.
The only way to stop it from spreading and forcing it to die would be extremely strict social distancing rules. Which seems to work in some countries.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

I found an incontrovertible scientific evidence the Chinese virus is, like all made-in-China things, short-lived and already falling apart: at the height of the panic, it would take me at least five pages to catch up with this thread (due to the time difference between Europe and America - when I go to sleep, you North Americans are busy posting). In the last day or two, I am just one or two pages behind.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

So far...

That's my point. So far. Since the virus can't last forever, whether inside or outside the body, the pandemic can't last forever either. Or could it?... what's the counterargument?

[LesPalenik]

That's my point. So far. Since the virus can't last forever, whether inside or outside the body, the pandemic can't last forever either. Or could it?... what's the counterargument?

The counterargument as confirmed by the experts is "This is a unique and tricky situation. Nobody knows how it will evolve next".

[elliot_n]

what's the counterargument?

229E, NL63, OC43 and HKU1

(The four coronaviruses that cause the common cold.)

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

229E, NL63, OC43 and HKU1

(The four coronaviruses that cause the common cold.)

But that doesn't answer my (genuine) question: how do they go from season to season? Hibernate like bears? Where are they in summer? Migrate like birds?

Are you saying that they never really go away, they go from person to person all year long, just fewer people carry the virus through summer (one would be enough)?

Even if so, virus is not a living thing, it can not reproduce, so the usual lifespan wear and tear should apply here too. So, what is the lifespan of a virus?

Or, comes fall, someone in China will eat a bat soup again?

[Paulo Bizarro]

Is there a similar graph per capita?

Check this site:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data?country=PRT

You can select countries. PRT is Portugal, the last one I chose. We have 116 deaths per 1 million. USA is around 250 deaths per million.

[Paulo Bizarro]

That's my point. So far. Since the virus can't last forever, whether inside or outside the body, the pandemic can't last forever either. Or could it?... what's the counterargument?

Several virologists have already pointed out that there is a very good chance that this virus will become endemic in the population, once the pandemic is over. That has happened with several other viruses, e.g. HIV, SARS, MERS, and influenza. Viruses do not simply "go away".

[elliot_n]

But that doesn't answer my (genuine) question: how do they go from season to season? Hibernate like bears? Where are they in summer? Migrate like birds?

Are you saying that they never really go away, they go from person to person all year long, just fewer people carry the virus through summer (one would be enough)?

I don't know. But people catch colds in the summer, so I guess the virus just carries on.

[Paulo Bizarro]

But that doesn't answer my (genuine) question: how do they go from season to season? Hibernate like bears? Where are they in summer? Migrate like birds?

Are you saying that they never really go away, they go from person to person all year long, just fewer people carry the virus through summer (one would be enough)?

Even if so, virus is not a living thing, it can not reproduce, so the usual lifespan wear and tear should apply here too. So, what is the lifespan of a virus?

Or, comes fall, someone in China will eat a bat soup again?

As bacteria, lifespan can be hundreds of millions of years.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

As bacteria, lifespan can be hundreds of millions of years.

Hold on... something doesn't make sense here. Once coughed out, the C19 virus falls on a surface, and can live there for between a couple of hours to a couple of days.

[Paulo Bizarro]

But that doesn't answer my (genuine) question: how do they go from season to season? Hibernate like bears? Where are they in summer? Migrate like birds?

Are you saying that they never really go away, they go from person to person all year long, just fewer people carry the virus through summer (one would be enough)?

Even if so, virus is not a living thing, it can not reproduce, so the usual lifespan wear and tear should apply here too. So, what is the lifespan of a virus?

Or, comes fall, someone in China will eat a bat soup again?

I am glad more attention is being paid to science. Here is some reading:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-viruses-alive-2004/

https://courses.lumenlearning.com/microbiology/chapter/the-viral-life-cycle/

https://science.howstuffworks.com/life/cellular-microscopic/virus-human2.htm

Viruses will lie dormant inside us or in the envirnoment, until conditions are met that allow them to "break" through our immune system and infect. Corona virus will often infect and attack our respiratory system. Tipically, in Autumn and Winter, our immune systems are weaker, and that is when they are more dangerous.

Sars-Cov-2 is unique in the fact that it can infect a host and only cause symptoms after a few days - in the meantime, during the asymptomatic phase the host will infect others, at R0 between 2 and 4. The danger is then that the virus can remain undetected in a host for several days, and the host will keep infecting others because it does not feel sick.

Several virologists are warning that next Winter and Autmun, a potential combination of regular influenza and corona virus can lead to a dramatic situation.

[JoeKitchen]

Lucky you, in many countries you would be jailed for what you described.

We recently heard from a photographer we know that moved to South Korea a few months before this all broke.  Since so many like to ask why cant we be like SK, let me add to this. 

She had to download an App on her phone that allows the government to individually monitor her movement, and she must have that phone on or near her at all times.  She also must take her temperature twice a day and enter it on her app.  If the government thinks she has the virus, she will be removed from her residence and put into a dorm.  On top of that, she (last we heard from her) was not allowed to leave her place and the government would drop off groceries and cleaning supplies for her. 

This is pretty much the case country wide. 

[chez]

Lucky you, in many countries you would be jailed for what you described.

I believe it's the same in the US...people free to go out as long as you follow distancing.

[Robert Roaldi]

Hold on... something doesn't make sense here. Once coughed out, the C19 virus falls on a surface, and can live there for between a couple of hours to a couple of days.

Found this article about seasonality in viral infections, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19#.

It doesn't make much sense to me to hope that this virus will die naturally. Others don't, why should this one. From a glance at the various articles, there seem to be lots of viral strategies for survival. One statement stood out, viruses are not alive (strictly speaking) so we should not expect them to die.

Although it is caused by a bacterium, the Bubonic Plague can still be found in the environment. So these things can be persistent.

[William Walker]

Alan, I am sure you will find this article interesting - it is the most comprehensive timeline regarding China's response to the Virus.

"The Congressional Research Service, the nonpartisan research arm of the House and the Senate, this week released a detailed timeline of the actions China took during the early weeks of the epidemic in December and January".

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/05/a-new-report-shows-what-really-happened-with-chinas-coronavirus-response/

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52676981

Psychiatrists fear 'tsunami' of mental illness after lockdown

"We are already seeing the devastating impact of Covid-19 on mental health, with more people in crisis," said Prof Wendy Burn, president of the Royal College of Psychiatrists.