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Author Topic: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political  (Read 501640 times)

JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4480 on: May 15, 2020, 12:49:39 pm »

New York (tests per million) = 67 035.
Georgia (tests per million) = 26 926.
Florida (tests per million) = 28 382.

Trump is correct when he says tests are silly - the more you test the more bloody positive cases you get!

I don’t care about positives; I care about deaths.  For heard immunity you need more positives anyway, and we now know who this kills.  Protect vulnerable groups and let it rip through the young is the best strategy we have with out a vaccine. 

18 months is best cause on a vaccine then 4 more years to produce enough doses to vaccinate 20% of the population.  Given that time frame, what are we suppose to do? 
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William Walker

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4481 on: May 15, 2020, 12:57:30 pm »

I don’t care about positives; I care about deaths.  For heard immunity you need more positives anyway, and we now know who this kills.  Protect vulnerable groups and let it rip through the young is the best strategy we have with out a vaccine. 

18 months is best cause on a vaccine then 4 more years to produce enough doses to vaccinate 20% of the population.  Given that time frame, what are we suppose to do?

Then how will you know what people died of....? Oh wait! I see now....!

(The article you posted referred to positive cases.... :D)
« Last Edit: May 15, 2020, 01:04:36 pm by William Walker »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4482 on: May 15, 2020, 01:13:55 pm »

... Comparing apples with pears...

I posted earlier an infographic that compares seven US states without lockdowns with seven states similar in population size and density with lockdowns that shows no significant difference in fatalities.

Quote
... BTW compare Sweden with the neighbours countries Norway, Finland and Denmark and conclude a lockdown is very effective.
But also that statement could be completely beside the point.

Well, it is beside the point, because Sweden, like the seven US states, did not ruin their economy, and is doing much, much better than some other EU countries, like Belgium and UK.

chez

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4483 on: May 15, 2020, 01:21:29 pm »

I posted earlier an infographic that compares seven US states without lockdowns with seven states similar in population size and density with lockdowns that shows no significant difference in fatalities.

Well, it is beside the point, because Sweden, like the seven US states, did not ruin their economy, and is doing much, much better than some other EU countries, like Belgium and UK.

This tells a totally different story than you do.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

"Sweden has attracted global attention for not imposing a full lockdown, as seen in most of Europe, to contain the coronavirus pandemic.

Nonetheless, data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse."
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4484 on: May 15, 2020, 01:53:49 pm »

This tells a totally different story than you do.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

"Sweden has attracted global attention for not imposing a full lockdown, as seen in most of Europe, to contain the coronavirus pandemic.

Nonetheless, data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse."

These are projections for the time being. Time will tell the real figures. It also matters the level of dependency on export and import, both independent of the local measures. It could be argued that with a lockdown in place, Sweden would fare much worse economically (although I personally do not like such hypotheticals).

However, if the final results show the article was right, I would stand corrected.

In any case, the third factor, people's happiness, will be in Sweden's favor, given that they could leave their houses for a beer, meeting friends, and some fresh air in parks :)

John Camp

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4485 on: May 15, 2020, 02:25:25 pm »

I don’t care about positives; I care about deaths.  For heard immunity you need more positives anyway, and we now know who this kills.  Protect vulnerable groups and let it rip through the young is the best strategy we have with out a vaccine. 

18 months is best cause on a vaccine then 4 more years to produce enough doses to vaccinate 20% of the population.  Given that time frame, what are we suppose to do?

Actually, best case on a vaccine is four months (the Oxford candidate) and a few more -- not many -- for widespread use. Johnson and Johnson is now talking about 300 million doses by January.
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kers

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4486 on: May 15, 2020, 02:27:00 pm »

...
In any case, the third factor, people's happiness, will be in Sweden's favor, given that they could leave their houses for a beer, meeting friends, and some fresh air in parks :)

Not if that beer lead to the persons death or that of some friends.


Not only is the equation    how much economy/money is a life worth.
but also

How much is the economy affected if the corona virus stays out of control,
and

Will the (economic) traffic across borders open to other countries when they think they are in control of corona but the USA is not.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4487 on: May 15, 2020, 03:01:46 pm »

Actually, best case on a vaccine is four months (the Oxford candidate) and a few more -- not many -- for widespread use. Johnson and Johnson is now talking about 300 million doses by January.

With best case being key. 

I have read a couple of interview with epidemiologists, one at Harvard, that these are pie in the sky predictions.  Not to mention we have never made a highly effective vaccine for any corona virus.  Many doctors seem to think we will need 2 or 3 different vaccines for it to be effective. 

Not that I am being pessimistic, just realistic. 

Maybe Godot will show up tomorrow, but he did not show up today nor yesterday. 
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faberryman

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4488 on: May 15, 2020, 03:18:03 pm »

Trump introduced Operation Warp Speed today whose goal is to develop and distribute a couple of hundred million doses of vaccine by the end of the year. They are supposedly evaluating 14 different candidates now. It is unclear to me exactly what they would be doing.

Actually I was asking myself why I should feel any safer going out now than I was on March 15th. The virus hasn't gone anywhere, has it?  Restaurants are still death traps, right?

« Last Edit: May 15, 2020, 04:48:19 pm by faberryman »
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John Camp

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4489 on: May 15, 2020, 03:33:41 pm »

Trump introduced Operation Warp Speed today whose goal is to develop and distribute a couple of hundred million doses of vaccine by the end of the year. They are supposedly evaluating 14 different candidates now. It is unclear to me exactly what they would actually be doing.

Actually I was asking myself why I should feel any safer going out now than I was on March 15th. The virus hasn't gone anywhere has it?  Restaurants are still death traps, right?

I think that's pretty much correct. We are slowly getting to some kind of plateau, but a plateau isn't the same as a decline -- we're actually spreading the virus at a fairly high rate. We'll be at 100,000 dead before the end of May, could be at 200,000 dead by mid-July.

I think the main thing in the new Trump plan is to begin manufacture before efficacy is proven. Once given a "signal" that suggests both efficacy and safety, production would begin, even if the trials aren't completed. If later we find problems, we'd dump whatever had already been manufactured, at significant cost, but the cost/benefit of getting a vaccine early outweighs the cost/loss of having to dump.

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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4490 on: May 15, 2020, 04:31:10 pm »

A surprisingly candid article that discusses FL's success along with the inherent media bias against republicans in coverage. 

Politico: Florida man beats Covid, for now

Yes, there’s media bias, too. Cuomo also has something else DeSantis doesn’t: a press that defers to him, one that preferred to cover “Florida Morons” at the beach (where it’s relatively hard to get infected) over New Yorkers riding cramped subway cars (where it’s easy to get infected).
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4491 on: May 15, 2020, 06:36:03 pm »

...Restaurants are still death traps, right?

Yep.

Belgrade will be gone in a matter of days.

faberryman

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4492 on: May 15, 2020, 06:47:16 pm »

Belgrade will be gone in a matter of days.
Doesn't sound like such a great place to catch the virus.

https://balkaninsight.com/2020/04/08/the-torture-of-a-coronavirus-test-in-serbia/
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4493 on: May 15, 2020, 07:20:21 pm »

Yep.

Belgrade will be gone in a matter of days.

Two weeks Slobodan, and if not, just wait two more and the two more and ...
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Ray

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4494 on: May 15, 2020, 08:53:40 pm »

First, let me say this was a example that I studied in college in statistics to show the reason why you need to set up a proper control. 

The gist of it is that in the 60s vaccines were still relatively new and not fully accepted by the population.  Those who were fine with vaccines, and giving them to their children, at the time happened to better educated, and better educated people tend to be cleanlier.  If you have a clean childhood, your immune system does not develop as much as those whom have an unwashed childhood (cant think of a good way to put that, but you know what I mean).  So, the students who's parent did not give permission had a better developed immune, more likely to naturally fight off Polio (but certainly not 100%), and giving the vaccine to the child of the better educated group was just evening the playing field. 

Therefore, there was no real difference between the groups.

Interesting example, Joe. There does seem to be sound evidence that excessive cleanliness during childhood can lead to harmful conditions such as asthma, various allergies and autoimmune disease.

I also wonder if the children of wealthier and more educated parents would get less exposure to sunlight because they were more often indoors doing their school homework, and were driven back and forth to school, and elsewhere, in a car rather than having to walk to school and elsewhere, exposed to the sun, as the children of poorer parents might have done, as well as playing around more often in both the dirt and the sun.

Vitamin D deficiency is now a major problem world-wide. Vitamin D is essential for a strong immune system and sun exposure is the main source.

The current emphasis on excessive cleanliness, due to Covid-19, might have future consequences for the immune system of today's children.
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chez

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4495 on: May 15, 2020, 09:13:40 pm »

These are projections for the time being. Time will tell the real figures. It also matters the level of dependency on export and import, both independent of the local measures. It could be argued that with a lockdown in place, Sweden would fare much worse economically (although I personally do not like such hypotheticals).

However, if the final results show the article was right, I would stand corrected.

In any case, the third factor, people's happiness, will be in Sweden's favor, given that they could leave their houses for a beer, meeting friends, and some fresh air in parks :)

Just got back from visiting with my brother...had a couple of beer on his deck and in the morning took my dog for a walk along a nature path by a lake. Locked down does not mean jailed.
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Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4496 on: May 15, 2020, 11:19:44 pm »

Actually, best case on a vaccine is four months (the Oxford candidate) and a few more -- not many -- for widespread use. Johnson and Johnson is now talking about 300 million doses by January.
I think they're going to make them and then release them for use without the usual testing. That would change if the virus disappears on it's own.

LesPalenik

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4497 on: May 15, 2020, 11:55:45 pm »

I think they're going to make them and then release them for use without the usual testing. That would change if the virus disappears on it's own.

Why would want the virus disappear on its own? I thought, it was more in the Veni Vidi Vici spirit.
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4498 on: May 16, 2020, 04:28:38 am »

https://wmbriggs.com/post/30833/?fbclid=IwAR0his0BD0lnf7fGktrPKTZOoeNy4qqO9wAW16z6Loy8HbazqcFciwVKexo

There Is No Evidence Lockdowns Saved Lives. It Is Indisputable They Caused Great Harm

Data as per yesterday. Plot is number of cumulative deaths versus number of days after 10th death. Portugal is black line. I labeled two countries that have more or less the same population as Portugal (Sweden and Belgium) and who implemented quarantine measures later than us and/or less restrictive. You can see the results.

And as already stated, Sweden will face an economic recession as dire as the rest of the EU. One can argue about plus or minus a couple of points of deficit on GDP. What is undisouted is that lockdown saved lives. Portugal and Sweden were growing initially at the comparable rates, but we implemented lockdown on March 16, after we reached 100 infection cases.

I have also labeled Brasil, whose infection curve and consequently death curve is still rising. USA on the top, as always, curve still not flat yet.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4499 on: May 16, 2020, 04:36:19 am »

Why would want the virus disappear on its own?

Why wouldn't it? It can't reproduce, and its lifespan on various surfaces is just a few days, no?
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