PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[elliot_n]

Boris Johnson back from the dead and addressing the nation:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52439348

His key message: the lockdown must continue.

[Craig Lamson]

Interesting that the rest of the world sees it different.
Of the top 6 countries for deaths, none are Asian.
The country coming first has more deaths than the next 5 put together, which are all in Europe.
Total deaths in all of Asia (admittedly questionable) is 17,000.

I suggest you re-read my post, I exempted several Asian countries.

And instead of looking at total deaths look at deaths per million.

[Craig Lamson]

As of yesterday, taken from the daily report on a Portuguese newspaper. On the top - 7 days average of cases versus number of days after 100th case. On the bottom - number of deaths per day, versus days after 10th death.

USA curve is the higher one on both plots, Portugal in black. It is clear that several countries could have acted sooner, based on the information available first from China, and then from Italy.

In a lot of cases its not the actions of Countries that need examined, its the actions of indivuduals.  People are the ones spreading this, not Countries.  I won't speak of other Nations but there is a real stubborn streak in many Americans and for lots of people here just said screw it, I'll do as I please.  Look at the USA as 50 Countries. When you exclude just 3 States our numbers fall by half.  The States run the game.  Trump stands at the top even though he has little control over the actions of each State, so yea, he takes the heat.  So be it. But if one wants to be objective you must consider this not as a whole but as 50 pieces.  When you do that you see a very different picture of how American has handled the crisis.

You guys have fun today...I'm off to work.

[JoeKitchen]

Boris Johnson back from the dead and addressing the nation:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52439348

His key message: the lockdown must continue.

And yet ...

Do lockdowns save many lives? In most places, data say no

[JoeKitchen]

Interesting that the rest of the world sees it different.
Of the top 6 countries for deaths, none are Asian.
The country coming first has more deaths than the next 5 put together, which are all in Europe.
Total deaths in all of Asia (admittedly questionable) is 17,000.

We all know China is lying Bob, and more then likely the number one country right now.  And dont give their numbers as proof I am wrong; you  cant trust a communist further then you can throw them and Xi is a larger version of Winnie the Pooh, tummy and all. 

[elliot_n]

And yet ...

Do lockdowns save many lives? In most places, data say no

Paywalled.

[JoeKitchen]

Paywalled.

Sorry. 

Basically if you look at the lockdowns vs. deaths there is a 5.5% correlation coefficient, which is pretty much no correlation what so ever. 

The biggest correlation found is population density (which I have been pointing out is not the same as social distancing) and subway use. 

[LesPalenik]

And yet ...

Do lockdowns save many lives? In most places, data say no

The lockdowns save lives, but sadly they also cause deaths. Time to adjust the strategy.
Cancer treatments cancelled or postponed, hip and knee replacements not happening, dental surgeries deferred, domestic abuses on the rise, etc.
CBC reports that up to 100,000 surgeries in Canada are now in the queue. If just 3% of the waiting patients perish, that would exceed the C19 deaths. (2,500 at this time). And that's not taking into consideration the economic problems which no doubt will cause more deaths and hardships.

Getting a cancer diagnosis is stressful enough at the best of times. But the pandemic has certainly added to the anxiety of many patients and their families. To prepare for the expected surge in COVID-19 cases, hospitals have been putting on hold all elective or non-emergency operations – including many cancer surgeries.

As some hospital operating rooms sit empty in anticipation of more COVID-19 patients, Canadians with postponed elective surgeries are forced to wait in pain. Robin McGee of Port Williams, N.S., developed cataracts on both her eyes due to cancer treatment. The condition is reversible with surgery and she had scheduled an operation on March 25, but it was postponed indefinitely due to the COVID-19 outbreak. “Left untreated, I'll be too blind to drive in six months and completely blind in 12 months,” she told CTV News.

Shortly after the COVID-19 outbreak began, doctors across Canada began cancelling elective surgeries, such as cataract operations, cosmetic procedures and even some cancer operations, to prepare for an influx of COVID-19 patients. This spike hasn’t materialized to the extent they thought, leaving some hospital operating rooms between 30 and 50 per cent empty -- unheard of under normal circumstances.

The longer elective surgeries continue to be postponed or cancelled, doctors worry of a potential backlog and further delays for patients once COVID-19 subsides. Some doctors privately speculate wait times for procedures could run a year or longer. Dr. Leyland knows it’s an issue. “Wait times are always a concern, even before the pandemic and access to health care in a timely fashion,” said Leyland. “What we're going to need to do is come up with strategies to be able to increase the capacity within the health-care system to deal with the backlog effectively, so patients don't have to wait.”

Dr. Chris Simpson is the Chief Medical Information Officer, for Novari Health a medical software firm. He says,  “Canada has always struggled with providing timely access to care for “elective” procedures and surgeries, as well as access to specialist consultation. This pandemic now promises to create a further, unprecedented negative impact on wait lists that are already too long. Not only will patients need to endure more suffering and pain as they wait longer for necessary care, but we’re going to see things that were “elective” turn to urgent”. That concern was echoed by Dr. Leanne Casaubon, a stroke neurologist and director of the TIA and Minor Stroke Unit at Toronto Western Hospital. Quoted in the Toronto Star she said, delayed care for some patients could well mean extended care filling beds in hospitals in the future if symptoms get worse.

 “Our concern is that an unintended consequence of this will be a potential increase in stroke into the near future, that we certainly want to help to avoid as best we can,” said Casaubon. There are concerns that as more people arrive needing surgery in a system already stressed before the pandemic, the backlog will mean wait times increasing by more months or even years.

http://health.sunnybrook.ca/navigator/many-cancer-surgeries-have-been-delayed-by-the-covid-19-pandemic-what-will-this-mean-for-patients/
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/many-operating-rooms-are-empty-as-patients-wait-in-pain-after-surgeries-cancelled-1.4910699
https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2020/04/23/covid-19-hospital-surgeries-facing-massive-backlog/

[elliot_n]

Sorry. 

Basically if you look at the lockdowns vs. deaths there is a 5.5% correlation coefficient, which is pretty much no correlation what so ever. 

The biggest correlation found is population density (which I have been pointing out is not the same as social distancing) and subway use. 

So apart from shutting down public transport, do you have any ideas as to how to reduce the spread?

[elliot_n]

Sorry. 

Basically if you look at the lockdowns vs. deaths there is a 5.5% correlation coefficient, which is pretty much no correlation what so ever. 

The biggest correlation found is population density (which I have been pointing out is not the same as social distancing) and subway use. 

If you don't believe that reducing human interaction will slow the spread of the disease, I'm curious how you think the disease is actually spread?

Do you believe that there is a miasma of virus hovering over our big cities, seeping silently through the cracks in our windows and the gaps in our doors? (A while back I posted an article that suggested the virus can attach itself to pollution particles, so perhaps this idea is not so far-fetched.)

However, I still think that close human contact is by far the most likely vector.

[JoeKitchen]

So apart from shutting down public transport, do you have any ideas as to how to reduce the spread?

No, but it is getting more and more obvious that lock downs don't do anything.  So why continue them, especially if the cost is significantly more with a destroyed economy. 

Open it up and have social distancing measures, but lets not destroy the economy using a tactic that does nothing. 

[JoeKitchen]

If you don't believe that reducing human interaction will slow the spread of the disease, I'm curious how you think the disease is actually spread?

Do you believe that there is a miasma of virus hovering over our big cities, seeping silently through the cracks in our windows and the gaps in our doors? (A while back I posted an article that suggested the virus can attach itself to pollution particles, so perhaps this idea is not so far-fetched.)

However, I still think that close human contact is by far the most likely vector.

The data is staring you in the face, all of us in the face, showing it has nothing to do with shut downs, but with population density.  Reducing population density is not the same of locking down.  The disease still spreads on surfaces, through the air, etc. 

This response just shows how much people who insist we pay attention to the experts ignore experts just as much when they dont aline with their political thoughts. 

The fact is, all of the data is showing the lock downs did nothing but destroy the economy, that's it. 

[elliot_n]

Reducing population density is not the same of locking down.

Reducing population density would entail evacuating the populations of all our big cities to the countryside. That would be a massive undertaking. It's a crackpot idea that would be far more destructive than a lockdown.

[elliot_n]

Open it up and have social distancing measures

So lockdowns are bad but social distancing is good? How do you define social distancing? What measure would you like to see in place?

[JoeKitchen]

Reducing population density would entail evacuating the populations of all our big cities to the countryside. That would be a massive undertaking. It's a crackpot idea that would be far more destructive than a lockdown.

I am not suggesting that, just merely pointing out that lock downs will not duplicate the effects of lower population density like people hope, not by any stretch. 

So, since it is looking more and more every day lock downs do nothing, there is no point in continuing them. 

[JoeKitchen]

So lockdowns are bad but social distancing is good? How do you define social distancing? What measure would you like to see in place?

Increased hand washing, decrease crowd size, etc.  Start playing Sweden, which is what everyone will be doing eventually. 

[BernardLanguillier]

So, since it is looking more and more every day lock downs do nothing, there is no point in continuing them.

There is absolutely no data whatsoever demonstrating that lock downs do nothing.

On the other hand we have many comparisons showing that lock downs do help very significantly.

Slobodan provided us recently with eye opening figures showing that the level of contagion is similar in highly populated and urban States that did a lock down compared to low density States that didn't do a lock down. That is the US and is as much evidence as you'll ever need.

A recent scientific study in France demonstrated quite convincingly that the lock down reduced the number of casualties by a factor of 6.

Cheers,
Bernard

[BernardLanguillier]

I obviously think Hussein is the worst president in my lifetime, and Trump the best.

I have asked you the question several times before, but you always declined to answer it.

Why is Obama the worst and Trump the best?

Also, if you lived in Las Vegas, would you be voting for the current mayor at the next opportunity?

Cheers,
Bernard

[LesPalenik]

CBC reports that the C19 crisis and the lockdowns have enabled 20 to 30 per cent increase in domestic abuse and violence rates in certain regions.

Climbing rates of domestic violence have been reported around the world amid orders to stay indoors and limit social interaction to curb the spread of COVID-19. Closures of some shelters and reduced capacity at others is worsening the problem, with the United Nations calling for immediate global action to halt the surge. After the pandemic's onset, Monsef said her department consulted with frontline organizations, provinces and territories and MPs from across Canada to better understand the impact of the crisis.

The discussions uncovered a 20 to 30 per cent increase in rates of gender-based violence and domestic violence in some regions of the country, though data on where the uptick is occurring is not yet available. "In some places the calls for help have gone up by some 400 per cent," Monsef said, referencing the circumstances facing one shelter in the Greater Toronto Area. Last week, York Regional Police, which serves a population north of Toronto, reported a 22 per cent increase in domestic incidents since stay-at-home measures came into effect March 17.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/domestic-violence-rates-rising-due-to-covid19-1.5545851

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

And yet ...

Do lockdowns save many lives? In most places, data say no

Can't judge the statistics mentioned, but in my country (the Netherlands), according to the National Outbreak Management Team, 90% (= 23354) of the number of ICU admissions have been avoided by the lockdown, and as such a large number of deaths as well. To give an idea, our expanded ICU capacity for COVID-19 patients is around 2000, so many deaths have been avoided.