PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[armand]

Where did I say it has something to do with that article title?

Besides... "my misinterpretation"... what is there to misinterpret? Here is the title, for people to see what possible (mis)interpretation there could  be:

"String of unrest around the world portend turmoil as economies collapse"

String of unrest = explained in the subtitle: Coronavirus LOCKDOWNS prompt protests in India, Lebanon, Iraq (emphasis mine). "Economies collapse" because of lockdowns, not because of the virus.

EDITED to add your reading of the title in one place:

You didn't, you replied after me and I thought it was addressed to me.

Regarding misinterpretation, I had an issue when you said the unrest is because of the totalitarian rights grab. That was your misinterpretation; the unrest is because of the economics of the lockdown. If those people would get the same money they were making before the lockdown, the majority will care less that the government will take away they right to roam free for a couple of months. I guess that's why the Chinese didn't revolt much yet, a full stomach goes a long way (that and not dying).

[armand]

Why are you hiding behind average-per-year? 2018 was 61,000, for instance. But get this... this was an after-the-fact estimate. Initial estimates had an interval from 30+ to 90+. Noticed that? 90+ estimate at the beginning of 2017/2018 season. But nobody noticed, nobody bothered, nobody crashed the economy. Natural event.

Cherry picking only to fit your argument it's a nice try but won't work.

Use this data: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Average is ~ 40k distributed over 6+ months.
That's less than 1.5k/week. We also have treatments and know what to expect while with Covid there is still uncertainty.

Here is a graph with flu and Covid

[armand]

Sure, but in a year, what if he does?  Will you take the responsibility that you, and others who gave into hysteria, destroyed the economy for no reason?

What if he doesn't?

We will still have a hit economy (people will be sick because not only those in the  20-30s are working and things will still close), and lots more deaths.

Hmmm, uncertainty .... human lives vs money.


Again, I understand the economic argument for opening. But it has to be done right if you want to be on the plus on overall human lives saved.

[chez]

I believe the reason the US instituted the lockdown was that the estimated deaths if we did nothing was 2,200,000, which is 24x the 2017/2018 estimated number of deaths from influenza. Perhaps if the do nothing estimated number of deaths from COVID-19 had been the same as for influenza, a different choice would have been made. Or maybe Trump, the governors and the mayors just wanted to exercise totalitarian authority under the guise of a public health emergency, and this seemed like a perfect opportunity.

I'd hate to see what NY would be like without a lockdown. People would be scared to go out of their homes.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

I believe the reason the US instituted the lockdown was that the estimated deaths if we did nothing was 2,200,000, which is 24x the 2017/2018 estimated number of deaths from influenza. Perhaps if the do nothing estimated number of deaths from COVID-19 had been the same as for influenza, a different choice would have been made. Or maybe Trump, the governors and the mayors just wanted to exercise totalitarian authority under the guise of a public health emergency, and this seemed like a perfect opportunity.

Who are you and what did you do to our friend faberryman!?

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

If you ever needed a proof of the rise of a totalitarian state, how about total merging of the state and media? Facebook, Twitter, Google, etc, are taking down posts that are... get this.. against government orders.

Like the example I posted earlier, police blasting over bullhorns: "You must obey government orders."

Absolutely scary.

[JoeKitchen]

What if he doesn't?

We will still have a hit economy (people will be sick because not only those in the  20-30s are working and things will still close), and lots more deaths.

Hmmm, uncertainty .... human lives vs money.


Again, I understand the economic argument for opening. But it has to be done right if you want to be on the plus on overall human lives saved.

So what you are saying is that it is not fair to judge your actions now based off of information we discovered in the future? 

[faberryman]

So what you are saying is that it is not fair to judge your actions now based off of information we discovered in the future?

I don't know about not being fair, but I have been told by some here that you can't call those actions in the past a "mistake".

[elliot_n]

Another expert saying this is not working nor the best path forward.  Worth the watch. 

Why lockdowns are the wrong policy - Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke

Interesting interview.

Of course it's not impartial. As one of the architects of Sweden's coronavirus policy, he's obliged to defend it. (Though credit to him for admitting that they failed to protect the elderly - a protection that was the cornerstone of their policy.)

When asked why Sweden has more deaths per capita than its neighbours, he wrongly says 'it's not true for Denmark' (Sweden has 156 deaths per million, whereas Denmark has 63).

More questionable is his suggestion that some Asian countries have thrown in the towel and have now decided to let the virus run its course:

‘I don’t think you can stop it. It’s spreading. You can stop it for some time. Countries that have been successful, like South Korea, are giving up now, they can’t maintain their policy.’

I don't see any evidence for this. South Korea has done a fantastic job in reducing its cases. What makes him think they've done a u-turn?

[Chris Kern]

Now I agree that full lockdown might not be the best option, but to go the other way around you need:
- a clear, rationale plan
- population buy in and some civic duty
- testing, testing, testing combined with a good infrastructure to isolate and follow the sick contacts.

Kind of a combo of what Korea and Singapore did. . . .

It didn't work out too well in the latter.  My wife and I have been following the situation in Singapore closely because her brother and his large multi-generational family live there.

The Singaporean government attempted to control the spread of the disease without closing schools and non-essential businesses.  It instituted fever monitoring in buildings accessible to the public and aggressive contact-tracing of individuals who might have been infected.  It also enacted 14-day mandatory isolation periods for anyone entering the country.  (My wife's brother and his wife rushed back from a visit to the United States to beat the deadline for the isolation period, but their kids insisted they isolate themselves for two weeks, anyway, before they would bring their grandchildren to see them!)

The Singaporean regime seemed to be working well for a while, but recently there have been multiple new outbreaks of COVID-19 infection, including several large-scale ones in housing projects where guest workers live.  The week before last Singapore finally closed the schools, mandated the use of face masks, and instituted "social distancing" restrictions similar to those in North America and Europe.  Last we heard even more stringent controls were being considered.

Apparently the Singaporean authorities underestimated the infectiousness of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and overestimated their ability to control the spread through testing and contact-tracing.  Even in a small country with an authoritarian (albeit benignly so) government, preventing large-scale infection seems to be very difficult with this disease.

[JoeKitchen]

If you ever needed a proof of the rise of a totalitarian state, how about total merging of the state and media? Facebook, Twitter, Google, etc, are taking down posts that are... get this.. against government orders.

Like the example I posted earlier, police blasting over bullhorns: "You must obey government orders."

Absolutely scary.

Another story being completely ignored by the mainstream media, local governments forcing media social media sources to remove protest notices. 

But don't worry, our rights are not being taken away.  It's just us conservatives over-reacting. 

This needs to stop!

We accomplished what we set out to do, keep the hospitals from be overwhelmed.  That was the sole reason this was sold to us for.  It is time to start opening. 

[faberryman]

We accomplished what we set out to do, keep the hospitals from be overwhelmed.  That was the sole reason this was sold to us for.  It is not time to start opening.

I think PA is in the northeastern consortium of states that have extended their lock down orders to May 15. Too bad you don't live in Georgia. I understand you can do dinner and a movie this weekend, and get matching tattoos on the way home.

[John Camp]

Another story being completely ignored by the mainstream media, local governments forcing media social media sources to remove protest notices. 

But don't worry, our rights are not being taken away.  It's just us conservatives over-reacting. 

This needs to stop!

We accomplished what we set out to do, keep the hospitals from be overwhelmed.  That was the sole reason this was sold to us for.  It is not time to start opening.

I certainly agree with that.

[JoeKitchen]

I certainly agree with that.

Fixed it for you John. 

[JoeKitchen]

I think PA is in the northeastern consortium of states that have extended their lock down orders to May 15. Too bad you don't live in Georgia. I understand you can do dinner and a movie this weekend, and get matching tattoos on the way home.

It is May 8th actually. 

The things that gets me, is that the elitist leftist Dems are scoffing their face at the average Americans, falsely making these protesters out to be Nazis and racist.  These are small business owners, gig workers, lower income workers, etc.  The plus is they are setting themselves up for another defeat in November just like HRC did with her deplorables comment. 

[BobShaw]

Meanwhile, the USA now has almost as many Covid cases as Spain, italy, Germany, UK and France combined.

The world is sitting here wondering how a country that is supposed to save the planet can make a political argument over 40,000 people dying.
The President is someone who gets carved into a mountain or has a giant marble monument built about them.
The opponent is someone that nobody ever heard of who doesn't have the support of a lot of his own party and is somehow supposed to go from zero to winning an election.

Here the best a Prime Minister can hope for is to have a suburb in Canberra named after them.
We just ask that they can provide some leadership and guide the country out of a problem.
Most world leaders seem to be doing that and most opposition parties and unions seem to be supporting them.

[armand]

So what you are saying is that it is not fair to judge your actions now based off of information we discovered in the future?

?
Where did you get this from?
What I was trying to say is that if you have 2 futures that you can choose to prepare for, lets say both with equal chances of happening and without proof (although I think we definitely have proof for the distancing policy), would you prepare for the one that will kill more people or the one that will kill less?

As I said, it's wishful thinking to say that, if you let the Covid run it's course, the economy won't be in disarray.

[armand]

It didn't work out too well in the latter.  My wife and I have been following the situation in Singapore closely because her brother and his large multi-generational family live there.

The Singaporean government attempted to control the spread of the disease without closing schools and non-essential businesses.  It instituted fever monitoring in buildings accessible to the public and aggressive contact-tracing of individuals who might have been infected.  It also enacted 14-day mandatory isolation periods for anyone entering the country.  (My wife's brother and his wife rushed back from a visit to the United States to beat the deadline for the isolation period, but their kids insisted they isolate themselves for two weeks, anyway, before they would bring their grandchildren to see them!)

The Singaporean regime seemed to be working well for a while, but recently there have been multiple new outbreaks of COVID-19 infection, including several large-scale ones in housing projects where guest workers live.  The week before last Singapore finally closed the schools, mandated the use of face masks, and instituted "social distancing" restrictions similar to those in North America and Europe.  Last we heard even more stringent controls were being considered.

Apparently the Singaporean authorities underestimated the infectiousness of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and overestimated their ability to control the spread through testing and contact-tracing.  Even in a small country with an authoritarian (albeit benignly so) government, preventing large-scale infection seems to be very difficult with this disease.

Thanks, I wasn't aware of the new developments in Singapore. I guess I still have South Korea to root for.

[armand]

American Medical Association statement regarding reopening: https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/ama-states-should-follow-4-signposts-safely-reopen-america

[faberryman]

The things that gets me, is that the elitist leftist Dems are scoffing their face at the average Americans, falsely making these protesters out to be Nazis and racist.  These are small business owners, gig workers, lower income workers, etc.

I am not seeing that being reported, but I may not follow all of the news sources you do. Can you provide links to a couple of those reports.