PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[Robert Roaldi]

Thanks for the laughs guys. One nut case in Nova Scotia loses it. One fake nurse video, which is bad but utterly forgettable. Meanwhile, 40,0000 Americans died in 7 weeks, more than the average number of flu deaths PER YEAR, and you ignore that to talk about totalitarian rights violations and small meaningless demonstrations in a few cities.

I watched some footage of one of those demonstrations, and there was at least one guy wearing a mask. I love irony.

But yeah, as the numbers recede then jurisdictions will start to plan how to remove restrictions, which is WHAT WAS ALWAYS GOING TO HAPPEN, except that you found a way to whine about it for the past month. I gather from the subtext that you still believe that Covid-19 was not a big deal, well, believe what you want.

There's not much info here anymore, just propaganda messaging. But at least some of it is funny.

[JoeKitchen]

How about police drones monitoring your every move in your own backyard?

What is next? Police entering your home to see who you are with? Who you are sleeping with in your bedroom? Some municipalities in the States are already prohibiting going to Walmart with your spouse. Or a single parent with their kid.

One of the most horrifying words I heard recently in one of these drone video: "You must obey the government!" over loudspeakers. Like in some dystopian movies. Happening today. Not it theaters near you, but right in your backyard.

Un-freaking-believable!

I would flip off every drone that flies overhead. 

[JoeKitchen]

Another expert saying this is not working nor the best path forward.  Worth the watch. 

Why lockdowns are the wrong policy - Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke

UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based.

The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only.

This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product."

The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown.

The results will eventually be similar for all countries.

Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.

The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%.

FYI, he is an epidemiologist and advisor to the director general at the WHO, obviously another alt-right source.     He also mentions that as soon as other countries open up, they will experience a 2nd wave of deaths that Sweden already had, thus leveling the numbers. 

(Now it appears, just like with architectural, I can spell epidemiologist without thinking about it anymore, a plus indeed.) 

Going back to Slobo's observation, he says what concerns him the most is not the deaths, but the dictatorial consequences this is having in Eastern Europe. 

[armand]

How about police drones monitoring your every move in your own backyard?

What is next? Police entering your home to see who you are with? Who you are sleeping with in your bedroom? Some municipalities in the States are already prohibiting going to Walmart with your spouse. Or a single parent with their kid.

One of the most horrifying words I heard recently in one of these drone video: "You must obey the government!" over loudspeakers. Like in some dystopian movies. Happening today. Not it theaters near you, but right in your backyard.

Un-freaking-believable!

What has this to do with your misinterpretation of that article title?

Sure, there will always be some to use the precarious conditions to their advantage. However, as humans living amongst other humans, we should be able to postpone exercising some freedoms in order to save some who can't protect themselves or don't have a choice. The wheel is always turning, you might be happy when you are above but you could easily go under and have to count on the others to do the right thing.

[armand]

Another expert saying this is not working nor the best path forward.  Worth the watch. 

Why lockdowns are the wrong policy - Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke

UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based.

The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only.

This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product."

The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown.

The results will eventually be similar for all countries.

Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.

The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%.

FYI, he is an epidemiologist and advisor to the director general at the WHO, obviously another alt-right source.   

(Now it appears, just like with architectural, I can spell epidemiologist without thinking about it anymore, a plus indeed.)

Proof is in the pudding.
Here is a comparison of how 2 neighbouring regions in Italy did, one with early lockdown and one with late: https://osf.io/se6wy/
Go to the LCDS final, page 7. The Lodi region did much better than the Bergamo.


Now I agree that full lockdown might not be the best option, but to go the other way around you need:
- a clear, rationale plan
- population buy in and some civic duty
- testing, testing, testing combined with a good infrastructure to isolate and follow the sick contacts.

Kind of a combo of what Korea and Singapore did. Do you think we have this in US at this point?

And regarding the old and the frail only dying first, I'm sure all the healthcare providers dead in Italy and elsewhere would disagree. He is a WHO advisor and yet WHO went a different way.
And we have nothing very well evidence based on this disease. Could he be right? It's possible, but there is nothing out there that says he will be.

[Alan Klein]

Another expert saying this is not working nor the best path forward.  Worth the watch. 

Why lockdowns are the wrong policy - Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke

UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based.

The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only.

This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product."

The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown.

The results will eventually be similar for all countries.

Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.

The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%.

FYI, he is an epidemiologist and advisor to the director general at the WHO, obviously another alt-right source.    He also mentions that as soon as other countries open up, they will experience a 2nd wave of deaths that Sweden already had, thus leveling the numbers. 

(Now it appears, just like with architectural, I can spell epidemiologist without thinking about it anymore, a plus indeed.) 

Going back to Slobo's observation, he says what concerns him the most is not the deaths, but the dictatorial consequences this is having in Eastern Europe. 

Pay now or pay more later.

[armand]

My last reply, I don't have much time (and you keep adding info to your posts).

He also mentions that as soon as other countries open up, they will experience a 2nd wave of deaths that Sweden already had, thus leveling the numbers

Very possible. But you won't lose those with other conditions that would not be attended to properly because of overload. Again, he has no evidence backing his way more than the others do.

[William Walker]

Turkeys voting for Christmas.

[JoeKitchen]

Proof is in the pudding.
Here is a comparison of how 2 neighbouring regions in Italy did, one with early lockdown and one with late: https://osf.io/se6wy/
Go to the LCDS final, page 7. The Lodi region did much better than the Bergamo.


Now I agree that full lockdown might not be the best option, but to go the other way around you need:
- a clear, rationale plan
- population buy in and some civic duty
- testing, testing, testing combined with a good infrastructure to isolate and follow the sick contacts.

Kind of a combo of what Korea and Singapore did. Do you think we have this in US at this point?

And regarding the old and the frail only dying first, I'm sure all the healthcare providers dead in Italy and elsewhere would disagree. He is a WHO advisor and yet WHO went a different way.
And we have nothing very well evidence based on this disease. Could he be right? It's possible, but there is nothing out there that says he will be.

Annnnnnnnnnd ... you did not even listen to it. 

For someone who claims we should be listening to the experts, you're pretty fast to discount one of the leading experts on disease in the world. 

We do not need full testing ability for the entirity of the country.  That would not be needed to keep track of the disease, plus it would be cost prohibitive.  Not to mention it would take too long, and Sweden did not have this either. 

Sure, a good plan in needed, but I can assume whom it would matter the most to would not need to be told to follow it.  It would be a life and death decision for them, so they would just simply submit to it without us needing to convince them.  They would stay inside on lockdown.  As for the rest, well they were encouraged to go out and get it, albeit making some adjustments, so they really have nothing much to follow.  You're critique of this just is not sound when you think about it.

[JoeKitchen]

My last reply, I don't have much time (and you keep adding info to your posts).

Very possible. But you won't lose those with other conditions that would not be attended to properly because of overload. Again, he has no evidence backing his way more than the others do.

Sure, but in a year, what if he does?  Will you take the responsibility that you, and others who gave into hysteria, destroyed the economy for no reason? 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

What has this to do with your misinterpretation of that article title?...

Where did I say it has something to do with that article title?

Besides... "my misinterpretation"... what is there to misinterpret? Here is the title, for people to see what possible (mis)interpretation there could  be:

"String of unrest around the world portend turmoil as economies collapse"

String of unrest = explained in the subtitle: Coronavirus LOCKDOWNS prompt protests in India, Lebanon, Iraq (emphasis mine). "Economies collapse" because of lockdowns, not because of the virus.

EDITED to add your reading of the title in one place:

That's not what the screen shot says.
I read it as the pandemic will expose further the current inequalities and that will lead to unrest.

[William Walker]

Another expert saying this is not working nor the best path forward.  Worth the watch. 

Why lockdowns are the wrong policy - Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke

UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based.

The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only.

This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product."

The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown.

The results will eventually be similar for all countries.

Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.

The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%.

FYI, he is an epidemiologist and advisor to the director general at the WHO, obviously another alt-right source.     He also mentions that as soon as other countries open up, they will experience a 2nd wave of deaths that Sweden already had, thus leveling the numbers. 

(Now it appears, just like with architectural, I can spell epidemiologist without thinking about it anymore, a plus indeed.) 

Going back to Slobo's observation, he says what concerns him the most is not the deaths, but the dictatorial consequences this is having in Eastern Europe.

Very interesting. Only time will tell who had the right approach.

My takeaways:
1. He conceded that they made some earlier mistakes (imagine someone admitting to an early mistake!) in not protecting the elderly soon enough. This might account for the higher death toll?
2. The Swedish people don't need to be told to isolate themselves, they are doing it anyway.
3. Joe, he said the death toll would be .01% (normal flu) and then added "or .02%" (double the normal flu).

[John Camp]

Struck me as one of those guys who is more interested in politics than the disease. I could be wrong.

And I don't know why people hold up Sweden as an example of something that's working -- it has more daily deaths than countries several times as large.

[William Walker]

Struck me as one of those guys who is more interested in politics than the disease. I could be wrong.

I also picked that up, but still, it will be interesting to see how it goes.

Our government expert, a very accomplished man, Professor Salim Abdool Karim (Google him), says the aim of the lockdown was to buy time for us, and according to him we bought four to six weeks. They are planning for our peak to be in September.

To my way of thinking, surely the more time you can buy, the better chance of some sort of therapy being available and thus more lives saved?

[Alan Klein]

Oil collapses into negative territory for the first time ever.  Apparently, producers have to pay people to take oil off their hands because there's no place to store. Storage facilities are full up. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/oil-prices-tumble-lowest-level-1980s-n1187716

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... it has more daily deaths than countries several times as large.

Once again, it is not just the death. Sweden is doing great in all three circles. I wish we do.

[Alan Klein]

Once again, it is not just the death. Sweden is doing great in all three circles. I wish we do.

While Sweden may do better, no country's going to miss the economic mess as we're all interdependent.  We all import and export.  Sweden's major exports include cars and petroleum products.  There's a glut of oil.  Who's going to buy Saabs? Of course, if the basic economy has been holding up, the damage will be less than elsewheres. 
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/swe/

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... Meanwhile, 40,0000 Americans died in 7 weeks, more than the average number of flu deaths PER YEAR...

Why are you hiding behind average-per-year? 2018 was 61,000, for instance. But get this... this was an after-the-fact estimate. Initial estimates had an interval from 30+ to 90+. Noticed that? 90+ estimate at the beginning of 2017/2018 season. But nobody noticed, nobody bothered, nobody crashed the economy. Natural event.

[armand]

Annnnnnnnnnd ... you did not even listen to it. 

For someone who claims we should be listening to the experts, you're pretty fast to discount one of the leading experts on disease in the world. 

We do not need full testing ability for the entirity of the country.  That would not be needed to keep track of the disease, plus it would be cost prohibitive.  Not to mention it would take too long, and Sweden did not have this either. 

Sure, a good plan in needed, but I can assume whom it would matter the most to would not need to be told to follow it.  It would be a life and death decision for them, so they would just simply submit to it without us needing to convince them.  They would stay inside on lockdown.  As for the rest, well they were encouraged to go out and get it, albeit making some adjustments, so they really have nothing much to follow.  You're critique of this just is not sound when you think about it.

You gave me the summary 
If you think I'm going to listen to a 30+ min video you are mistaken. Even if I had time I would not do it, I'm not going to waste half an hour and then realize it was a waste. All good videos should have a summary.

That being said, my points are valid still.

1. In Italy there is hard proof (and not belief) that early lockdown was beneficial vs late lockdown).
2. I didn't disregard, but him being a WHO advisor had less weight of WHO had different recs
3. I didn't say you have to treat the entire country but much more than we are doing right now

[faberryman]

Why are you hiding behind average-per-year? 2018 was 61,000, for instance. But get this... this was an after-the-fact estimate. Initial estimates had an interval from 30+ to 90+. Noticed that? 90+ estimate at the beginning of 2017/2018 season. But nobody noticed, nobody bothered, nobody crashed the economy. Natural event.

I believe the reason the US instituted the lockdown was that the estimated deaths if we did nothing was 2,200,000, which is 24x the 2017/2018 estimated number of deaths from influenza. Perhaps if the do nothing estimated number of deaths from COVID-19 had been the same as for influenza, a different choice would have been made. Or maybe Trump, the governors and the mayors just wanted to exercise totalitarian authority under the guise of a public health emergency, and this seemed like a perfect opportunity.