PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[Alan Klein]

One last time Alan...then I give up. It's weekly deaths...not entire year totals. So you can see the Covid deaths for the last week we have data is much much higher than deaths from the flu in previous years.

A weekly statistic comparing two diseases is a useless statistic unless you're trying to fool people.  See my last post.  It reminds me of the guy who drowned in a lake that had an average depth of two feet.  He just happened to fall in the spot that's 15 feet deep. 

[faberryman]

You explanation is three pages too late.  To present a chart without explaining it is exactly how you can lie with statistics.  In any case, looking at weekly comparisons is game playing.  So we know that with Covid, in NY for example, there were a few weeks that had terrible numbers. It's when death and cases peaked out. What about the rest of the year? No one cares about weekly totals, certainly in the future,  except people who are trying to deceive and make it look worse than other diseases.  The fact is for the season, regular flu is worse.  And the graph should have compared the cumulative totals to make it meaningful.  It it did, it would have looked very different.  Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Honestly, Alan, I don't know why you are wearing a mask and gloves to the grocery store, or going around spritzing you door knobs with alcohol in the middle of the night.  You clearly believe this is no more than the seasonal flu. We know you don't trust the experts, but don't you trust your own judgment?

[Alan Klein]

Last week, they started testing random pregnant women in NYC, who came for check-ups, for COVID-19 and found 14% of them have it and only 1.9% had symptoms.  And that is currently have it, not had it since no one is doing anti-body tests yet. 

It is already ripping through the community and the vast majority don't have any symptoms.  If something like 30% of the population has had it already or currently does, all of this is really for not.  Also, testing and keeping track of people will be impossible not to mention pointless since we would be close to heard immunity already. 

But like I said, if you are 55 or old, stay inside if you want to.  Life will be the same regardless if only you or everyone stays inside.  But life will be considerably worse for those who are young if we stay in side much longer. 

14% is a huge number if an accurate sample of the whole population.  I heard yesterday that there's speculation that the disease has been around since October.  If true, it could have been circulating like you said.  I hope the 14% is accurate because it means it's not as deadly as we think.  Of course for a boomer as you affectionately call me, I still have to be careful being in the target group. 

[Alan Klein]

And he (Al) also believes "we have the best healthcare system in the world" only that he can no longer access the best docs because of price; maybe he thinks he's also in Cuba?

Although Rob won't read this because he doesn;t like what I have to say and has blocked me, I have to correct him.  At least others will know what the score is.

It's not price that affects access. It's government sponsored Medicare that forces the better doctors to opt out of Medicare.  That means neither my Medicare insurance or my private secondary insurance will pay for even ten cents of those doctor's bills. I have to pay the full 100% out of my own pocket. Before Medicare, I was able to see those doctors because their fees were picked up by my private insurance coverage.  Once I went on government Medicare, I was screwed.  So will everyone else be when they start Medicare. 

[Alan Klein]

Here liquor store sales are up 40%.

They're probably using it a an antiseptic.  It's impossible to find Isopropyl. 

[chez]

A weekly statistic comparing two diseases is a useless statistic unless you're trying to fool people.  See my last post.  It reminds me of the guy who drowned in a lake that had an average depth of two feet.  He just happened to fall in the spot that's 15 feet deep.

That's all the data we have...and in those few weeks, look at the damage the virus has done...what over 36,000 deaths. Do you still believe the flu this season is more dangerous than this virus?

You didn't answer me on whether or not you lock yourself in your house during the 6 month flu season every year. If not...and you truly believe this virus is less dangerous than the flu...why are you locking yourself in now?

[Alan Klein]

So is letting the world economy collapse by staying inside for over a year.  Not to mention, it is almost always the case that you develop immunity if you catch a virus and survive. 


Anyway, I was coming here to post about this same story  because if you also increase the denominator in the case fatality equations to being 3% of the population of the Netherlands, the fatality rate goes down to 0.6%. 

From the assumed 11% to 0.6%, which is much lower then what we have been assuming by a factor of 20, and the fatality rate goes even lower for young people if you break it down by age. 

Using the fact that 3% have had it, the new rates for under 24, a fatality is 0%, and for 25 to 49 it is 0.1%

Dr. Birx said it's most likely that getting it is an effective antidote against getting it again.   They don't have proof at this time.  But that's the usually path it follows, so she says.

See?  I can trust an expert. 

[JoeKitchen]

14% is a huge number if an accurate sample of the whole population.  I heard yesterday that there's speculation that the disease has been around since October.  If true, it could have been circulating like you said.  I hope the 14% is accurate because it means it's not as deadly as we think.  Of course for a boomer as you affectionately call me, I still have to be careful being in the target group. 

Certainly a selection biased is at play here but not necessarily off from the general population.  If not, I would predict it would be lower with pregnant women.  This is why we need overall testing of true random samples. 

[JoeKitchen]

I know some will scoff at this, but Dave Rubin just posted a podcast with the My Pillow guy.  It’s a good interview.  He does touch on religion a bit  but it is a good listen.  You can tell he’s a big personality. 

[Robert Roaldi]

You explanation is three pages too late.  To present a chart without explaining it is exactly how you can lie with statistics.  In any case, looking at weekly comparisons is game playing.  So we know that with Covid, in NY for example, there were a few weeks that had terrible numbers. It's when death and cases peaked out. What about the rest of the year? No one cares about weekly totals, certainly in the future,  except people who are trying to deceive and make it look worse than other diseases.  The fact is for the season, regular flu is worse.  And the graph should have compared the cumulative totals to make it meaningful.  It it did, it would have looked very different.  Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Three pages too late?  What does that even mean.

The point is that the linked article contains the info you wanted. It's not stale dated because he only replied to you 3 pages "later". Did you go read it? Of course you didn't. You are not here for explanations or understanding, you're just here to drown out information with noise. I assume there are instructions on the Trump Troll FAQ site on how to do this most effectively, along with all the "on message" quotes that you regularly and repeatedly post.

I saw a photo online today of a large trench dug by a bulldozer that New York will be using as a mass grave for all their Covid-19 related unclaimed bodies. Why don't you telephone that bulldozer contractor and ask them how many times he was called out to do this for the flu? We'll wait for your answer.

[Alan Klein]

Alan, you're actually referring to the 2017-18 death totals. The 2018-19 death totals that you keep referring to are about 34,000 flu deaths. The 2019-2020 totals are not completely in yet. But the 60,000, which was by far the highest in the last decade, are two years ago, not the last full season.

Also, on the 15th of March, there were about 100 Covid deaths in the US. On the 15th of April, there were about 30,000. That's a one-month total, with near total shutdown during the latter part of that time to prevent the spread. You keep comparing full flu seasons, which run roughly from October to April, with December, January, February and March being the highest infection rates, with a one-month total. By the end of this month, the total may be close to 60,000, and that would be in a month and a half, not a full season. And that's with the shutdown and social distancing. Covid is not really comparable to the flu; it's far, far worse. 

Again, statistics can been deceiving.  Flu vaccines reduce the flu rate by 20% of cases and 10% of deaths (including anti-viral medicine for those who caught it).  Half the cases and death are in NY Metro area, a congested area that has 60 million visitors from around the world annually. The governor and mayor should have shut down the city earlier.     Also, the world had about half a million deaths from flu. I believe that's a much higher number than Covid. 

I'm not saying Covid is not dangerous.  If I believed that I wouldn't be hiding out at home. The questions is did we over-react?  And what do we do going forward?  At this point, even the experts don't know.  When you listen to them, they qualify every statement they make.  Yet people want our officials to have firm answers to these things. That's not going to happen.  Frankly, we're going to muddle along, try this and that to some success and some failure until we get through this. 

[Alan Klein]

Sure, if you do not lock down older people. 

As I said before, lock the elderly and let the young out to work with common sense measures.  It makes not difference to the elderly but makes a huge difference for the young.   

I'm sure you didn't mean it this way.  But, the old should have just as much choice as you do.  If they choose to be out and take a chance of getting sick and dying, that's their prerogative. It's a free country for all. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

I'm sure you didn't mean it this way.  But, the old should have just as much choice as you do.  If they choose to be out and take a chance of getting sick and dying, that's their prerogative. It's a free country for all. 

Absolutely.

[JoeKitchen]

I'm sure you didn't mean it this way.  But, the old should have just as much choice as you do.  If they choose to be out and take a chance of getting sick and dying, that's their prerogative. It's a free country for all.

Yes, that is what I meant

[Alan Klein]

I don't know how accurate this is, but I also heard that in NYC they are putting those who got this bad on their stomachs in the ICU and it is helping drastically. 

Armand, any thoughts? 

That's an interesting point.  Before my triple bypass past year, (I also have a touch of emphysema) I had trouble breathing, especially on my back.  Even now, after the bypass and a year later, I find I breathe better on my side.  It's hard on my stomach too but that could be a weight problem.  It may have something to do with expansion of my diaphragm when breathing being harder on my back.  That would be an interesting study.

[Chris Kern]

You are not here for explanations or understanding, you're just here to drown out information with noise. I assume there are instructions on the Trump Troll FAQ site on how to do this most effectively . . .

Or perhaps a symptom of Expressive Trumpulsive Disorder, which provokes an irresistible urge to concoct implausible explanations for Trump's most irrational tantrums and tediously insist they are true.

[chez]

Again, statistics can been deceiving.  Flu vaccines reduce the flu rate by 20% of cases and 10% of deaths (including anti-viral medicine for those who caught it).  Half the cases and death are in NY Metro area, a congested area that has 60 million visitors from around the world annually. The governor and mayor should have shut down the city earlier.     Also, the world had about half a million deaths from flu. I believe that's a much higher number than Covid. 

I'm not saying Covid is not dangerous.  If I believed that I wouldn't be hiding out at home. The questions is did we over-react?  And what do we do going forward?  At this point, even the experts don't know.  When you listen to them, they qualify every statement they make.  Yet people want our officials to have firm answers to these things. That's not going to happen.  Frankly, we're going to muddle along, try this and that to some success and some failure until we get through this.

If we didn't react...what do you think our death count would be like. Look at NY that reacted too late and it's hell. Do you think places like Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta etc... would be much better if we just let people go about their business as if nothing happened? It's easy to sit on your chair and type away on the net criticizing the experts, these experts are dealing with something new hear...but do you really think we'd be better off ( even the economy when everyone is hiding at home because of people dying ) if we didn't implement the measures?

I really don't understand what exactly you are trying to say Alan...but you've been saying it over and over and over. Why not try another tack.

[Alan Klein]

Don't tell Alan

Never mind me.  Don't tell my wife. 

[chez]

I'm sure you didn't mean it this way.  But, the old should have just as much choice as you do.  If they choose to be out and take a chance of getting sick and dying, that's their prerogative. It's a free country for all.

Yes, but I don't want Covidiots that think they are immune to death to come near me when I'm out and about. Maybe a cattle prod would do the trick.

[Alan Klein]

Earlier today Joe K wrote that he is not at risk.  How do you know  that Joe?  You may be at low risk, but I don't know how you can write that you are not at risk.  You could move about, meet people etc, and get it very mildly or asymptomatically, but could still infect.  If you infected someone who later died, I hope you could live with your conscience. 

The risk of infecting others is one concept people in the UK are mostly fully aware so complying with restrictions.  They are also aware of other consequences, e.g. how it will affect future work patterns  with far less travel to work and less pollution.  Also the demise of cash, as we are advised to use contactless cards instead.  We may even hug people less!

Jonathan

That's a terrible guilt trip to place on someone who has to work to feed his family.  It's not right.  Do you tell a guy who has to drive to work he should give it up because he might kill someone in an accident on his way to work?