PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[chez]

The text that was not shown with the graph explained the parameters of the graph.  If the originator thought enough to explain his own graph, that explanation should have been included with the graph when it was posted here.  Other people were confused by the graph as well.  It's bad enough we're all guessing when we don't have the facts.  There's no point to guess about these things when the facts are known but not presented such as your name and place you live.   

OK...but the data was there IF you looked for it. You just jumped to conclusions way to fast and started to type. Slow down and read carefully.

[Alan Klein]

OK...but the data was there IF you looked for it. You just jumped to conclusions way to fast and started to type. Slow down and read carefully.

I did look at it closer but came up with a different analysis based on faulty or rather no details given by the poster. It was the poster's responsibility to include the description of what the curves meant.  In fact, so important was the weekly detail, the originator of the report and graph italicised that point in his description. :- "Note that the data sets begin at different points in the year (as marked on the left). Also note that the figures shown here are for new deaths each week, not for cumulative deaths."  Yet the poster here didn't bother to include the explanation.  Your defence of him is misplaced. 
https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/not-like-the-flu-not-like-car-crashes-not-like


More importantly this confusion shows how statistics are often very confusing and used to bias people's true understanding of what's going on. They can be easily manipulated, as it was here (maybe innocently, maybe not), to present a false or at least distorted view of the truth.  That's why I use the phrase, Lies, damn lies, and statistics. 

[chez]

I did look at it closer but came up with a different analysis based on faulty or rather no details given by the poster. It was the poster's responsibility to include the description of what the curves meant.  In fact, so important was the weekly detail, the originator of the report and graph italicised that point in his description. :- "Note that the data sets begin at different points in the year (as marked on the left). Also note that the figures shown here are for new deaths each week, not for cumulative deaths."  Yet the poster here didn't bother to include the explanation.  Your defence of him is misplaced. 
https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/not-like-the-flu-not-like-car-crashes-not-like


More importantly this confusion shows how statistics are often very confusing and used to bias people's true understanding of what's going on. They can be easily manipulated, as it was here (maybe innocently, maybe not), to present a false or at least distorted view of the truth.  That's why I use the phrase, Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Or more accurately, the bias of the person looking at the data can slant their views to whatever suits their bias.

Yes..lies and more importantly preconceived notions affect how people view data.

[JoeKitchen]

Wow, 85 times higher then thought.

Coronavirus antibody testing finds Bay Area infections may be 85 times higher than reported: researchers

The Actual Scientific Study.

[LesPalenik]

Wow, 85 times higher then thought.

Coronavirus antibody testing finds Bay Area infections may be 85 times higher than reported: researchers

85 times higher is a huge difference, but even if in other places it's only 10 times under reported, the total cases would exceed those of the flu.

[armand]

Why does proning work?

http://rc.rcjournal.com/content/60/11/1660

I'm not going to explain it further, it's beyond the time I'm willing to spend.

[JoeKitchen]

85 times higher is a huge difference, but even if in other places it's only 10 times under reported, the total cases would exceed those of the flu.

Yes, very true. 

But if 85 times higher, all this has been for not.  This means it already ripped though the population regardless of what we did.  If it turns out to be 85 times higher, it will be a sad day for many politicians, including Trump.  It would mean many over reacted and destroyed the economy.

[Alan Klein]

Or more accurately, the bias of the person looking at the data can slant their views to whatever suits their bias.

Yes..lies and more importantly preconceived notions affect how people view data.

All the more important that the data is presented in the most coherent way.  Otherwise you just confuse the interpretations.  That's the presenter's fault, not the viewer's.  It happens all the time here when people are discussing photography.  All the more so with a topic in which none of us are experts.

[Ray]

In Thailand, from the 4th of April this year, people have been banned from stepping out of their homes from 10 pm to 4 am, and the authorities state that violators will be punished without any exceptions.

People who violate the curfew under the Emergency Decree will face up to 2 years in prison or up to 40,000 Baht (almost US$13,000) in fines, or both.

Apparently, more than 7,000 people have been arrested during the past two weeks for violating this night time curfew.

Here's a recent example.
https://www.thaipbsworld.com/18-foreign-tourists-arrested-at-party-on-pha-ngan-island/

"Eighteen foreign tourists were today detained by Thai police for partying at a rented house on Pha-ngan Island, home to the popular full-moon parties, in violation of state of emergency restrictions.

Police later escorted the foreigners, including the tenant, to the police station to be charged with violating the ban on social gatherings, intended to prevent the spread of COVID-19."

Thailand's reported death rate from Covid-19 is amazingly low. The current reported death rate is a mere 47, in a population of almost 70 million

[Alan Klein]

Why so low?

[LesPalenik]

Why so low?

to a large degree, due to the above policies.

[John Camp]

Wow, 85 times higher then thought.

The good thing about this study is that they picked a really typical American county -- Santa Clara County, better known as Silicon Valley, and, according to Wiki, the place with "the third highest GDP in the world, after Zurich, Switzerland and Oslo, Norway" and "the most affluent county on the West Coast of the United States..." with an income of "$94587 per capita, roughly on a par with Qatar..."

The average age there is...37.

It was also one of the earliest places to enforce social distancing and lockdown, and has some of the best medical facilities in the world, including free clinics. Think any of that might have had an impact on the number of deaths? Remember, there are two components to this study -- the number of infected and the number of deaths. Changing either one of them impacts the mortality rate. I would suggest that the mortality rate there is unusually low.

Unlike what Joe suggests, it's not "85 times" the number of confirmed cases -- the study suggests the number may be 50 to 85 times the number. He cherry-picked the high number. And just out of curiosity, I'd like to know why that range is so large. In fact, it doesn't sound like a random study to me. It sounds like something else, but anything else probably would have been shot down by now. A typical range for a good random study with a 95 percent confidence level (the standard for most social research) would be closer to 6%, not 40%.

 

[John Camp]

Oh, wait. I missed something in the original study. It wasn't a real random study -- the people in the study were recruited through Facebook advertisements. Think that might have had some impact? I would suspect those self-selected people may have agreed to go along with a test because they suspected that they might have been infected or that they might have been exposed. I think the study is junk.

[Alan Klein]

So small business loans for companies under 500 people are going to companies with 5000. Meanwhile, the funding has dried up for small businesses two weeks after the program began begetting cries for more taxpayer money.   From us.  Who else?  So many owners are just taking this money that won't have to be repaid to stick in their pockets.  What a fiasco.  Socialism for the rich.  This is 2008 all over again with the government handing out money.  The banks will be in trouble again with mortgage, automobile and credit card debts not being able to be repaid.  So they'll get bailout money again.  Air carriers, cruise ships, everybody is deserving.  All the marginal companies won't be allowed to fail as they should hurting companies that can survive and making the rest of us poorer as we have to pay off the debt.  Republicans have become Democrats and everyone is for socialism. How are we going to fund infrastructure, medical care, education and all those things we were talking about two months ago?  Like the victims of Covid 19, the whole economy will soon be on life support.  Absolutely no one is watching the safe.  The politicians only want to buy their votes for the election in November.  And the rest of us will vote for them if only they don't forget us. The virus won't do us in.  We will. 

https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/small-business-owners-demand-help-after-sba-funds-dry-up/

[Alan Klein]

Yes, very true. 

But if 85 times higher, all this has been for not.  This means it already ripped though the population regardless of what we did.  If it turns out to be 85 times higher, it will be a sad day for many politicians, including Trump.  It would mean many over reacted and destroyed the economy.

He should have stuck to his guns when he called it a hoax and that it would end when the weather got warm.  Of course, all the people who blamed him for not shutting down the economy earlier will blame him for listening to them and shutting it down anyway.

[Alan Klein]

Oh, wait. I missed something in the original study. It wasn't a real random study -- the people in the study were recruited through Facebook advertisements. Think that might have had some impact? I would suspect those self-selected people may have agreed to go along with a test because they suspected that they might have been infected or that they might have been exposed. I think the study is junk.

But it was run by experts. 

[Ray]

to a large degree, due to the above policies.

True, but Thailand also has a good medical system, which is one of the reasons why it's a popular destination for retirees.

"Medical staff of Sa Kaeo Crown Prince Hospital led by hospital director Dr Surasit Jitpitak on Friday (April 17) bid farewell to the last Covid-19 patient who was treated at the hospital, as he had fully recovered.
...his recovery means Sa Kaeo currently has zero active cases of Covid-19. The accumulated number of confirmed cases in the province stands at 10."

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30386302

[Manoli]

Ray, that’s excellent news but surely Sa Kaeo isn’t the whole of Thailand? I checked the latest stats and though good there’s still a way to go.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/

True, but Thailand also has a good medical system, which is one of the reasons why it's a popular destination for retirees.

"Medical staff of Sa Kaeo Crown Prince Hospital led by hospital director Dr Surasit Jitpitak on Friday (April 17) bid farewell to the last Covid-19 patient who was treated at the hospital, as he had fully recovered.
...his recovery means Sa Kaeo currently has zero active cases of Covid-19. The accumulated number of confirmed cases in the province stands at 10."

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30386302

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

to a large degree, due to the above policies.

Are you saying the virus spreads mostly by night? It is nocturnal? Like bats? Well, makes sense.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

This is too good and too true to languish in the Humor thread: