PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[JoeKitchen]

The good thing about this study is that they picked a really typical American county -- Santa Clara County, better known as Silicon Valley, and, according to Wiki, the place with "the third highest GDP in the world, after Zurich, Switzerland and Oslo, Norway" and "the most affluent county on the West Coast of the United States..." with an income of "$94587 per capita, roughly on a par with Qatar..."

The average age there is...37.

It was also one of the earliest places to enforce social distancing and lockdown, and has some of the best medical facilities in the world, including free clinics. Think any of that might have had an impact on the number of deaths? Remember, there are two components to this study -- the number of infected and the number of deaths. Changing either one of them impacts the mortality rate. I would suggest that the mortality rate there is unusually low.

Unlike what Joe suggests, it's not "85 times" the number of confirmed cases -- the study suggests the number may be 50 to 85 times the number. He cherry-picked the high number. And just out of curiosity, I'd like to know why that range is so large. In fact, it doesn't sound like a random study to me. It sounds like something else, but anything else probably would have been shot down by now. A typical range for a good random study with a 95 percent confidence level (the standard for most social research) would be closer to 6%, not 40%.

 

50 times is still damn higher that what we have been thinking.   Most sources are saying 10 with 20 being the supremum.   

And if this is one of the easiest places to enforce social distancing, which you feel is so effective, wouldn't that imply the rates would be even higher in the rest of the country? 

By the way, I'm loving the optimism, or really I should say, you putting your foot on the throat of optimism. 

[JoeKitchen]

He should have stuck to his guns when he called it a hoax and that it would end when the weather got warm.  Of course, all the people who blamed him for not shutting down the economy earlier will blame him for listening to them and shutting it down anyway.

I am waiting for that switch. 

"Trump ruined the economy by not opening it up sooner."  I know it is coming. 

[JoeKitchen]

Exactly, I do not understand why people are so selfish. Ok, as an individual, I might not care if I catch the virus and feel like I could go about my business. But with an R0 of 2 or 3, pretty soon I would potentially infect others, and even sooner, hospitals would be beyond breaking point. Simply locking down older people or people at risk (cancer, asthma, diabetes, etc) is no sufficient.

I see this as a phased approach: first you lock down almost everybody (in many countries the essential services and workers have not stopped). Then, after R0 goes below 1, you start to open slowly. Of course, depending on economic differences between countries, the non-essential workers and services are either into lay off or into unemployment - it is then the duty of the government to try and help as much as they can.

You are noticing that in places opening up, they are getting a 2nd wave.  So what do we do when we open up and also get that 2nd wave, go back inside for a few months.  Anyone  who thinks I'm doing that can  screw themselves. 

So instead of isolating seniors and letting this rip through the population so develop heard immunity, instead we will give everyone a false sense of safety upon opening, including seniors, and those vulnerable will come out and get infected.  Sounds like a great plan. 

And I am glad you are finally coming to the conclusion that if you get it, you have a 99.9% of being fine.  Then you will quickly become immune and no longer be a carrier. 

[JoeKitchen]

I want to enjoy life, but I don't mind to sacrifice some of my enjoyment to avoid hospitals crashing down. You are selfish - imagine you go out with all your enjoyment, catch the virus, and go to the hospital. You may survive it, as many do; but in the meantime, it may take 3 to 4 weeks for you to recover in the hospital, and you are occupying a bed or ICU unit and staff, robbing an older person from that care.

People thinking like you was it caused the collapse in Spain and Italy. PErhaps you need to watch how doctors had to decide who to live and who to die a few weeks ago.

If only out of respect for health personnel, who work 12 hour shifts or more under extreme conditions, you should be less selfish and think about others. Even if you catch it and can recover from home, you still occupy one nurse that has to call you twice a day to check on you. Just think about others for a while. It is not that tough to stay home for 8 weeks.

All of my suggestions are for the USA, which has a significantly better healthcare system then the rest.  We can handle it, which is obvious if you look at NYC.  Other countries may be different. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

As I said in another post yesterday, everyone has made mis-steps (our government, Australia and others did very well, actually), what is frustrating is that you guys do not acknowledge that simple fact when it comes to Trump (as does he)...

Will, what you call "that simple fact" is determined as a "mis-step" only in hindsight. That is what we've been saying all along.

In that sense, it does matter what "experts," media, other leaders were saying on a particular day in the past (more or less the same as Trump). The decision that was made on each day has to be evaluated based on the available information on that day, not even the day later. 

[kers]

All of my suggestions are for the USA, which has a significantly better healthcare system then the rest.  We can handle it, which is obvious if you look at NYC.  Other countries may be different.

At the same time 800 people die every day in NY and even mass burials (25 a day) are necessary at Hart Island for the unknown.
The 'better health care' is for the ones that can afford it and bought it on time.

[JoeKitchen]

At the same time 800 people die every day in NY and even mass burials (25 a day) are necessary at Hart Island for the unknown.
The 'better health care' is for the ones that can afford it and bought it on time.

You write as if that 800 figure has been and will continue to be 800.  How quickly you forget the results from a week prior, and the curve many of you talk about so much, which is drawn going down as well. 

On top of that, you are wrong about our healthcare.  By law, if you go to the hospital, they have to treat you and the President worked to make coverage for C-19 free. 

[William Walker]

Will, what you call "that simple fact" is determined as a "mis-step" only in hindsight. That is what we've been saying all along.

In that sense, it does matter what "experts," media, other leaders were saying on a particular day in the past (more or less the same as Trump). The decision that was made on each day has to be evaluated based on the available information on that day, not even the day later.

So all he has to do is say, "OK, I cocked that one up!". Please show me one instance of Trump admitting that he might have done better. As far as he's concerned, everything he does and has done has been "perfect" or "10 out of 10"....It is not human to not make mistakes.

[JoeKitchen]

So all he has to do is say, "OK, I cocked that one up!" - Please show me one instance of Trump admitting that he might have done better. As far as he's concerned, everything he does and has done has been "perfect" or "10 out of 10"....It is not human to not make mistakes

There is plenty of mistakes made in hindsight to go around, especially with Cuomo.

So, what other politicians are admitting they screwed up.  Cuomo has become just as defensive lately when questioned on this.

[Robert Roaldi]

Some photos and videos of the mass burial site on Hart Island, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/hart-island-mass-graves-coronavirus-new-york/2020/04/16/a0c413ee-7f5f-11ea-a3ee-13e1ae0a3571_story.html. This seems antiquated, why not cremation?

[William Walker]

There is plenty of mistakes made in hindsight to go around, especially with Cuomo.

So, what other politicians are admitting they screwed up.  Cuomo has become just as defensive lately when questioned on this.

Good morning Joe, I see you are awake!

You are also deflecting....I could not give a stuff about Cuomo, we are not talking about him. (Surely you have heard about two wrongs not making a right?)
But since we are talking about that, how come Cuomo's "defensiveness" bugs you but not Trump's?

[Craig Lamson]

So all he has to do is say, "OK, I cocked that one up!". Please show me one instance of Trump admitting that he might have done better. As far as he's concerned, everything he does and has done has been "perfect" or "10 out of 10"....It is not human to not make mistakes.

Slobodan said it perfectly, you make decisions based on what have for information on any given day.  It’s not a screw up if you made your decision on that data.  It’s really easy to say, oh if only a week sooner, but when you look at the statements of the experts a week earlier, you can see why decisions were made.  What was perfect yesterday may not be perfect tomorrow.  Calling it a mistake is silly. 

[William Walker]

There is plenty of mistakes made in hindsight to go around, especially with Cuomo.

So, what other politicians are admitting they screwed up.  Cuomo has become just as defensive lately when questioned on this.

A quick search: "What we did was we closed everything down. Closed everything. If you re-thought that, or had time to analyze it, I don't know that you would say, "quarantine everyone."

'I don't even know that was the best public health strategy. Young people quarantining with old people was probably not the best public health strategy,' he said." Cuomo admitting to a mistake. WOW!

[JoeKitchen]

Good morning Joe, I see you are awake!

You are also deflecting....I could not give a stuff about Cuomo, we are not talking about him. (Surely you have heard about two wrongs not making a right?)
But since we are talking about that, how come Cuomo's "defensiveness" bugs you but not Trump's?

Sure, two wrong dont make a right, and Cuomo's defensiveness does not bug me.  As I said in the past, I dont give into the hindsight fallacy like you do.  I am judging his actions by the information available on the day that he made that decision on, not by information that was discovered later that you so desperately want  to hold Trump's decisions accountable to. 

What I find so annoying is that you are attacking Trump with so much vigor but insist on ignoring Cuomo who took the longest out of any governor with C-19 cases to act.  CA shut down two days before NY (could have been three days) with significantly less cases.  Not to mention Cuomo shut down after Trump had made the suggestion.  So, by your standards Cuomo is the most at fault, and yet you ignore him. 

This just shows your only intent is to defame Trump, that's it.  If it was not, you would be talking about Cuomo as well.  You're not after the truth, just ways to hit Trump using hindsight only. 

[JoeKitchen]

A quick search: "What we did was we closed everything down. Closed everything. If you re-thought that, or had time to analyze it, I don't know that you would say, "quarantine everyone."

'I don't even know that was the best public health strategy. Young people quarantining with old people was probably not the best public health strategy,' he said." Cuomo admitting to a mistake. WOW!

I'd suggest you read through this NY Times piece from April 9th and you well see how late to the game Cuomo was. 

How Delays and Unheeded Warnings ...

If you read this and do not come to the conclusion that Cuomo is more culpable then Trump by your standards of hindsight, then it shows you are nothing but a partisan with a serious case of TDS. 

As I said before, neither Cuomo nor Trump is accepting any responsibility, it's just that Cuomo is a practiced politician and knows how to use deceptive language better. 

Last saying "probably not the best" instead of "yes, it was a misstake on my part" are very different.  The former does not really accept that you made a mistake, whereas the latter does. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

So all he has to do is say, "OK, I cocked that one up!". ..

Because he didn't. If something is determined to be a mistake only in hindsight, it wasn't a mistake at the time of the decision making.

[William Walker]

Sure, two wrong dont make a right, and Cuomo's defensiveness does not bug me.  As I said in the past, I dont give into the hindsight fallacy like you do.  I am judging his actions by the information available on the day that he made that decision on, not by information that was discovered later that you so desperately want  to hold Trump's decisions accountable to. 

What I find so annoying is that you are attacking Trump with so much vigor but insist on ignoring Cuomo who took the longest out of any governor with C-19 cases to act.  CA shut down two days before NY (could have been three days) with significantly less cases.  Not to mention Cuomo shut down after Trump had made the suggestion.  So, by your standards Cuomo is the most at fault, and yet you ignore him. 

This just shows your only intent is to defame Trump, that's it.  If it was not, you would be talking about Cuomo as well.

Of course I'm talking about Trump! He is the leader of your country, not Cuomo. Whatever happened to "The Buck Stops Here"? I did not know who Cuomo was until a few weeks ago - if you tell me he has made mis-steps fine, I'm not arguing with that, besides, I have never mentioned him or blown smoke up is arse.

You will also note that I have often started with "no-one has played this thing perfectly..." Everyone has made mistakes, and they can't be blamed for them as long as they acknowledge them.

[JoeKitchen]

Of course I'm talking about Trump! He is the leader of your country, not Cuomo. Whatever happened to "The Buck Stops Here"? I did not know who Cuomo was until a few weeks ago - if you tell me he has made mis-steps fine, I'm not arguing with that, besides, I have never mentioned him or blown smoke up is arse.

You will also note that I have often started with "no-one has played this thing perfectly..." Everyone has made mistakes, and they can't be blamed for them as long as they acknowledge them.

You're obviously a novice when it comes to politics. 

Having Trump, or anyone, go on the record and say definitively that they made a mistake would become the number 1 commercial used by the opposition. 

[Alan Klein]

Frankly, you both disappointed me.

Surely the correct answer would have been, "William, sorry, I can't help you, I am going to need more context in order to properly understand this thing". Instead, you both go into "shoot this down mode" instinctively.

Nothing anyone here says will persuade you allow yourself look at this matter objectively. Everything has to fit into your (Trump) narrative, and look, I understand your predicament: Once you make one concession as to any missteps your government has taken, you get kicked out of the tribe. Not just "kicked out", but vilified and mocked, ask Michael Cohen, John Bolton, Jeff Sessions and the rest.

Please give Mrs Klein my best wishes - surely she must be a "Medal of Honour" recipient when this is all over!

 
"So officer, I wasn't really trying to hold up the bank and steal money.  It was only a test to see how fast you guys would respond to the holdup."

Give me a break.   So you just admitted you presented a tainted chart and was hoping to get away with.  Meanwhile, Joe noticed it was deficient and I confirmed it. And now you actually admit you did it that way for some nefarious purpose.  You just made all those other people who jumped on our backs to defend the chart look as foolish as you are.

[William Walker]

Because he didn't. If something is determined to be a mistake only in hindsight, it wasn't a mistake at the time of the decision making.

Well then, we should remove the word "mistake" from the English language if we are to follow that crazy logic.

No-one consciously makes a mistake in real time, it is only hindsight that allows us determine an incorrect decision. And if we are decent human beings we say, "oh my! It looks like I got that wrong!"