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Author Topic: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political  (Read 510080 times)

elliot_n

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1740 on: April 17, 2020, 02:24:16 pm »

Listening to a Hoover podcast, using CDC stats here are the total deaths from C-19 by age group from February 1st to last week in USA:

Under Age 1: 0 deaths
Age 2 to 4: 2 deaths
5 to 14: 1 death
15 to 24: 13 deaths (btw over 5000 deaths in this age group total have occurred over this period)
25 to 34:  113 (out of 11,000 total deaths in this period)
35 to 44: 289 (out of 16,000 total deaths)
45 to 54: 751 (out of 30,500 total)
55 to 64: 1773 (out of 74,000)
65 to 74: 2900 (out of ~115,000)
75 to 84: 3576 (out of 144,000)

Surely some mistake. That's 9,500 Covid deaths. The current US death toll is 35,500. You're missing 26,000 bodies.
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chez

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1741 on: April 17, 2020, 02:25:34 pm »

You missed the part of my underline where they said, "The safety and well-being of our patients continue to be our primary concern. "

How do they do that by staying closed?  I will admit that they have a phone number for emergencies.  What do they do then?   My question is, how are doctors going to care for their patients?  Do they have any intention or should they just say upfront that we're on our own.  Sending a self-serving email that looks good but provides no services is, well, self serving. What they're really saying is, look, we're not going to risk ourselves taking care of your medical needs.  But please don't forget about us when this is over even if we passed the buck.  Better if they sent nothing rather than feeding us a line of BS. 

How are cancer patients getting their chemo treatments?  Are they suppose to die?  Don;t doctors take oaths?  Or is it just about big paychecks?  Why can hospital workers, EMT, police etc.  sacrifice for peanuts, and high paying doctors and dentists tell us we're on our own.  Why don;t they suit up in PPE to protect themselves and provide services? Their assistants could do the same.  They could pay for a service to come in once a day to sterilize and do sterilizations between patients, a lot better than what happens in an emergency ward at a hospital.  After all, the State, that is the people, our society,  license these people and give them special privileges where they earn a lot of money  They should act responsibly.  Governors should demand they fulfill them or have their licenses revoked.  How many nurses are telling their hospital administrators they're not coming in because its dangerous?  Shouldn't we have the same expectations from our medical and dental practitioners?

Alan, you are mixing up life threatening procedures with a toothache. Big difference...and if your tooth gets really bad...call the emergency line for you dentist and arrange a visit. Why get your panties into knots.

Doctors have also cancelled or postponed elective surgeries.
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1742 on: April 17, 2020, 02:26:11 pm »

The y-axis is labeled deaths per million.  They did not say per million what?  Is it to the USA population, which we know, or to the confirmed cases. 

Really, I'm just trying to save face here.   ;)

Furthermore, I would like to know the health status and ages of those deaths.  Like I said before, as young healthy persons, my wife and I are not scared of this virus at all and would rather just get out there and start working.

There is  a lot of younger people being killed by this. I don't know how old are you, but the average mortality rate in Portugal is around 3.6 %. Above 70 years it jumps to 9%.

Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1743 on: April 17, 2020, 02:26:29 pm »

The y-axis is labeled deaths per million.  They did not say per million what?  Is it to the USA population, which we know, or to the confirmed cases. 

Really, I'm just trying to save face here.   ;)

Furthermore, I would like to know the health status and ages of those deaths.  Like I said before, as young healthy persons, my wife and I are not scared of this virus at all and would rather just get out there and start working. 
DOn't apologize.  You're right.  First off, any chart that doesn't explain what the X axis represents is playing games with statistics.  You shouldn't trust it.  Second, it can not be millions of population because there are more 2018-2019 flu deaths than Covid.  So the flu line would be higher than the Covid line. The opposite is shown. So we're back to million of cases comparison.  Since we don't know how many Covid cases there really are, the graph is worthless for COvid and only has any use for the other disease comparisons.   Lies, Damn lies, and statistics.

chez

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1744 on: April 17, 2020, 02:26:56 pm »

Until you get accurate tallies of those who contracted the disease but didn't die, the rate of deaths cannot be accurately determined.

For the last time...it is not a rate but number of deaths per 1M population.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1745 on: April 17, 2020, 02:27:36 pm »

Surely some mistake. That's 9,500 Covid deaths. The current US death toll is 35,500. You're missing 26,000 bodies.

Data is from 2/1 to 4/11, which was last week like I wrote. 
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chez

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1746 on: April 17, 2020, 02:28:57 pm »

Indeed, and you still do not grasp it... this is number of killed versus 1 million people. It is not versus 1 million of tests.

You can only tell them so many times...if they can't comprehend...just skip them.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1747 on: April 17, 2020, 02:30:38 pm »

There is  a lot of younger people being killed by this. I don't know how old are you, but the average mortality rate in Portugal is around 3.6 %. Above 70 years it jumps to 9%.

Overall, maybe.  But as a rate, and fatality, the data just does not bare this out, at least not in the USA. 

Like I said, I have 0 fear of this right now just based off of the number. 

As a matter of fact, my basement flood today due to a clog in the U trap near the sewer line.  I had to have my plumber stop over, who is about 65 and he had no fear of this.  Personally, given his age, I felt it was a bit foolish of him, but looking at the numbers the fatality rate is still very low even for him. 
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 02:35:45 pm by JoeKitchen »
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1748 on: April 17, 2020, 02:31:30 pm »

You can only tell them so many times...if they can't comprehend...just skip them.

And I admitted you were right when you pointed that out, so ...
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Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1749 on: April 17, 2020, 02:32:35 pm »

I think you need to do better than that plot, even low budget movies fare better...
Paulo, Why would you trust the Chinese?  You didn't trust the Soviet Union and I don't think you trust Russia. Do you really think China's your friend?  Why is Portugal in NATO? You don't think China wouldn't like to see the Portuguese working for them?

chez

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1750 on: April 17, 2020, 02:32:39 pm »

DOn't apologize.  You're right.  First off, any chart that doesn't explain what the X axis represents is playing games with statistics.  You shouldn't trust it.  Second, it can not be millions of population because there are more 2018-2019 flu deaths than Covid.  So the flu line would be higher than the Covid line. The opposite is shown. So we're back to million of cases comparison.  Since we don't know how many Covid cases there really are, the graph is worthless for COvid and only has any use for the other disease comparisons.   Lies, Damn lies, and statistics.

Alan...rather than being quick to fire off more posts...why don't you actually look at that graph and see what it is saying because so far everyone of your posts regarding the graph are totally WRONG. Spend more time reading...less time typing.
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Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1751 on: April 17, 2020, 02:33:52 pm »

Protection... right...
Why doesn't Portugal drop out of NATO.  Trust me.  Americans are tired of bleeding for others. 

JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1752 on: April 17, 2020, 02:34:14 pm »

Spain has ghost cities too: brand new developments that were never bought. They brought down banks and builders at 2008. Ironically (anyone else note how much irony is doing the rounds this season?), at the same time, there is a massive shortage of affordable property for young Spaniards to buy or even to rent, levels of prices in both options being above their means. I don't think it can all be laid at the feet of tourism: it seems unlikely to me that tourists would be inclined to buy deeply inland, as in the periphery of Madrid.

Never said it was not a Chine only problem. 

Many place over built in the early 2000s.  Difference is China want totally bananas compared to other countries. 
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Rob C

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1753 on: April 17, 2020, 02:35:19 pm »

I was referencing your comment about Chavez, who obviously got that VIP treatment.

Maybe you were and maybe you were not; the problem with the post to which I took exception is that you use a bold highlight, crediting me, and then follow it with your own literature. It appears as if that is a direct quotation from something that I wrote, but in fact, did not.

elliot_n

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1754 on: April 17, 2020, 02:35:34 pm »

Data is from 2/1 to 4/11, which was last week like I wrote. 

Well, 26,000 people haven't died from Covid in the last 5 days. Somethings wrong with your figures.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1755 on: April 17, 2020, 02:37:01 pm »

Maybe you were and maybe you were not; the problem with the post to which I took exception is that you use a bold highlight, crediting me, and then follow it with your own literature. It appears as if that is a direct quotation from something that I wrote, but in fact, did not.

Oh, I see.  I did not mean to imply you wrote that, only it was in response to Chavez's treatment you referenced.  I should have been more clear.
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Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1756 on: April 17, 2020, 02:39:44 pm »

Listening to a Hoover podcast, using CDC stats here are the total deaths from C-19 by age group from February 1st to last April 11th in USA:

Under Age 1: 0 deaths
Age 2 to 4: 2 deaths
5 to 14: 1 death
15 to 24: 13 deaths (btw over 5000 deaths in this age group total have occurred over this period)
25 to 34:  113 (out of 11,000 total deaths in this period)
35 to 44: 289 (out of 16,000 total deaths)
45 to 54: 751 (out of 30,500 total)
55 to 64: 1773 (out of 74,000)
65 to 74: 2900 (out of ~115,000)
75 to 84: 3576 (out of 144,000)

So, like I said, you old farts should certainly stay locked up, which is not going to hurt the economy. 

However, if you're below 45, the chances of you dying form this are near 0.  Even at  45 to 54 you still have a very great chance of not dying. 

Let young people get back out there and start working!  Dont be arrogant boomers and think you know best for everyone, because you dont. 
Hey.  I'm a boomer.  :)

JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1757 on: April 17, 2020, 02:40:07 pm »

Well, 26,000 people haven't died from Covid in the last 5 days. Somethings wrong with your figures.

Two days ago, NYC arbitrarily added 3700 deaths without testing to the figures.  Yesterday a total or 4500 died.  That's 8000+ in 2 days, not including how many people died on the day that 3700 was added.  Add on 4 or 5 more days (the morning this was released did not take into account the deaths on that day) of the highest absolute figures per day and you could get to 26K. 

The point though is that we should not be treating all age groups as equal here with policy.  It just does not make sense given who is dying. 
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 02:46:57 pm by JoeKitchen »
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Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1758 on: April 17, 2020, 02:40:53 pm »

If you ever do table top photography, you'll want to throw that camera out the window if it is not yaw free.  Yaw free movements are a God send!
What's that?

John Camp

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #1759 on: April 17, 2020, 02:44:36 pm »

The USA is broke.  Even before the virus, we had a one trillion dollar deficit. Now, because of the virus, we'll be printing upwards of $6 trillion dollars.  This will become debt and reduce the purchasing power of the US dollar.  Savings retirees have worked their entire lives for will become worth half its value.  Social Security payments might be cut, or more likely, the government will just print more dollars to pay for it devaluing its purchasing power even more.  When the Senate votes 96-0 to print money, you know they're in no mode to cut Social Security and Medicare and other benefits Americans take for granted.  In this way, we're not much different than Europe.  We all want something for nothing.

Alan, the U.S. is broke like a man who owns a million dollar house, free and clear, but doesn't have any cash and so has to borrow. But he still has a million dollar house free and clear. If you draw a line down the 100th parallel in the US, most of the land west of that is owned by the federal government. It could, theoretically, be sold. And for trillions of dollars, if the government wanted to do that.

Here is a note from a federal website:

"BLM oversees 245 million surface acres of public lands for the American people. The agency manages 1 in 10 acres in the U.S., or about 12 percent of the landmass of the U.S. That's a little bit less than the size of Texas."

And that's just the BLM.

Another 193 million acres is controlled by the US forest service. Not quite as much as the BLM, but together, they're well past the size of Texas in landholdings. How much is Texas worth?

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