PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[chez]

At 75, that's my biggest concern.  What I'm doing is staying hidden and hoping that the thing dies out soon never to return.  The alternative, is to stay hidden until they come up with a vaccine and/or a antiviral shot to cure or reduce the effect when I get it.  Other than that, I really rolling the dice.

I'm not quite your age...but still in the critical zone, but my wife has Parkinson's and if I get the virus and bring it home...I can be giving my wife her death sentence. I'm hoping summer slows this thing down and they speed through a vaccine for early next year.

Or maybe head out to a remote Tahiti island and live off my fishing.

[JoeKitchen]

And all this after you guys were all over that piece from medium.com that the lockdown doesn't lead to less deaths. Oh, well, if it fits it ships.

Never said that.  Only "lockdowns lead to less death" is nothing but a truism; just look at all of the car fatalities we have avoided.  Pollution is down too; I'm sure asthma sufferers are in a pig's heaven right now.  But anyway

Point is, Bernard keeps on acting like no Dem, not a single Dem, holds any responsibility here.  And it obvious he has a soft spot for Cuomo.  But the media is finally truly accessing what went so wrong, and Cuomo is in the crosshairs.  Sure, Trump got hit too, but you cant have a NYTs story without hitting Trump, but now even the Times is going after Cuomo.

[Alan Klein]

Lack of leadership at all levels. Maybe they learn from the commander.

Governors don't report to the president in a federal republic which the USA is.    In fact, in this case, the NY governor is a Democrat and President Trump is a Republican.  Governor Cuomo is responsible for his state.  He's the chief executive officer of New York like President Trump is the CEO of the Federal government.  Their responsibilities are separate.

[chez]

I never said a lockdown doesn't work.  What I said was that a lockdown earlier on didn't seem to fit the facts at the time.  You don't go to war because the other guy is sailing some ships nearby.

But there was proof lockdowns worked. China and South Korea were two examples that could have been followed. I agree locking down too soon might not have been warranted...but planning a lockdown with all the logistics would definitely been warranted.

[chez]

I never said a lockdown doesn't work.  What I said was that a lockdown earlier on didn't seem to fit the facts at the time.  You don't go to war because the other guy is sailing some ships nearby.

But there was proof lockdowns worked. China and South Korea were two examples that could have been followed. I agree locking down too soon might not have been warranted...but planning a lockdown with all the logistics would definitely been warranted.

[JoeKitchen]

Oh certainly. I am in no way giving a pass to Cuomo.

But I don't see who the failure of the governors to act as quickly as they could have contradicts in any way what I wrote above. They were still far faster than Trump would have liked.

You are too stuck in your partisan views of the world to look objectively at the actions of Trump.

And the worse is happening now.

Do you at least agree that Trump's attitude in pushing to States to reopen according to his federal agenda is totally insane?

Cheers,
Bernard

LOL Bernard. 

As has been told to you repeatably, in our form of government, it is the governors that hold the power here, not Trump.  Your boy Cuomo waited longer then all the other governors in the states that had cases. 

According to your standards, he is just as, if not more so, culpable.

As for me, I am giving Cuomo a pass for the same reason I am giving Trump a pass, I don't give into the hindsight fallacy like you do.


PS In response to the bold, no.  Why?  Because we have no idea yet what that plan, or agenda, is or how he intends on opening it.  Judging his plan/agenda before he releases it makes no sense what so ever.  At least give him until tomorrow after you can actually see the plan before judgement, otherwise you're just making it ever so obvious how much of a partisan you are. 

[Alan Klein]

Never said that.  Only "lockdowns lead to less death" is nothing but a truism; just look at all of the car fatalities we have avoided.  Pollution is down too; I'm sure asthma sufferers are in a pig's heaven right now.  But anyway

Point is, Bernard keeps on acting like no Dem, not a single Dem, holds any responsibility here.  And it obvious he has a soft spot for Cuomo.  But the media is finally truly accessing what went so wrong, and Cuomo is in the crosshairs.  Sure, Trump got hit too, but you cant have a NYTs story without hitting Trump, but now even the Times is going after Cuomo.

Speaking of car accidents, did anyone get any rebates on their insurance?  Allstate and Farmers were giving them since accidents are way down since people are hardly driving.  I've discovered that not only is the price of gasoline really cheap.  It's actually free if you don't drive. 

[JoeKitchen]

Trump blames the governors, WHO and China.  Governor Cuomo blames Trump and Mayor Di Blasio, and De Blasio Blames Cuomo and Trump.  I've lived in New York and NJ all my life.  Nothing changes.  It's like a circular firing squad.

Success has many fathers, failure is an orphan.

I bet when this is all written, the story will be Cuomo let his personal animus towards De Blasio cloud his judgement.  It's a sad day for you when someone can say De Blasio was ahead of you twice in one week. 

[chez]

Governors don't report to the president in a federal republic which the USA is.    In fact, in this case, the NY governor is a Democrat and President Trump is a Republican.  Governor Cuomo is responsible for his state.  He's the chief executive officer of New York like President Trump is the CEO of the Federal government.  Their responsibilities are separate.

You don't have to have direct reports to lead...that's a big misunderstanding. The Patriots players did not report to Tom Brady...but he sure was the leader of the team. Trumps style is to bully...does it everywhere, and that does not lead to respect so you have the states flashing the finger at Trump. You end up with a disfunctional government at all levels...which is what you have now.

[Alan Klein]

But there was proof lockdowns worked. China and South Korea were two examples that could have been followed. I agree locking down too soon might not have been warranted...but planning a lockdown with all the logistics would definitely been warranted.

Yeah.  But you're Monday morning quarterbacking again.  Who else locked down like that.  I didn't stop playing poker until mid-March.  And that was only a nickle and dime stakes game.  No president is going to shut down the American economy until there's a dead person laying on the White House doorstep.  Let's face it.  Sure. it's easy to say that now after the facts are in.  But we keep covering this thing, the same thing.  What now?  How do we open up?  Tomorrow fellows, the president will have his plan.  The next 6 months are critical portender of the future for the US and the rest of the world.  No doubt about it. 

[LesPalenik]

It's all in the beer Alan...that and we got the vaccine from the Chinese in trade for releasing Meng Wanzhou.

I've watched both leader address their people. Trudeau comes out of his home everyday at the same time, speaks with authority yet sympathetic to people's concerns, and does not try to put on a show or overstep his knowledge. If he doesn't know something, he says so and leaves the question to be answered by the experts. He is in step with the provinces...one of the premiers who could not get along with Trudeau called it his finest hour. The premiers all say the same message as Trudeau and right down to the chief medical officers of each province...same story. The people of Canada for the most part have followed their leaders lead, the message is always consistent and the same no matter what level of government is talking ( even Trudeau's opposition ). Basically all politicking has been shelved to deal with the crisis. So the social isolation and distancing measures put in place are for the most part being followed...not being rebelled against because of the strong leadership and messages.

Now contrast that with Trump where chaos rules...just like he likes it. Different message to the people every day. Looking to blame anyone he can. No leadership at all. And you need to ask why there are differences...it's all in the leadership starting at the top. Nothing to do with people's freedom being taken away...we have that same freedom here in Canada...but the message has been given to us and we understand what's at stake. The message to the American people changes every damn day...with your leader losing it on national TV yesterday. I too would say Fuck it...lets just go out and play.

+1
Well said. A good summary.

[chez]

Yeah.  But you're Monday morning quarterbacking again.  Who else locked down like that.  I didn't stop playing poker until mid-March.  And that was only a nickle and dime stakes game.  No president is going to shut down the American economy until there's a dead person laying on the White House doorstep.  Let's face it.  Sure. it's easy to say that now after the facts are in.  But we keep covering this thing, the same thing.  What now?  How do we open up?  Tomorrow fellows, the president will have his plan.  The next 6 months are critical portender of the future for the US and the rest of the world.  No doubt about it.

We are still right in the middle of the crisis with the most deaths in one day in the USA. I think rather than worrying about starting up, maybe we need to get past the current mess. I feel many places have not had their day yet...more to come.

[Alan Klein]

I bet when this is all written, the story will be Cuomo let his personal animus towards De Blasio cloud his judgement.  It's a sad day for you when someone can say De Blasio was ahead of you twice in one week. 

Of course, out-to-lunch, or should I say out-to-gym Di Blasio was responsible too.  After all, as mayor, he's CEO of NYC Health and Hospital Corporation which has a $6.8 billion budget and runs 11 major city-owned hospitals in NYC.  Why didn't they have the PPE they needed for such a crisis?  I surprised he didn't blame the stock boy.  Like I said, circular firing squad.

[Alan Klein]

We are still right in the middle of the crisis with the most deaths in one day in the USA. I think rather than worrying about starting up, maybe we need to get past the current mess. I feel many places have not had their day yet...more to come.

We'll find out tomorrow when they announce their plan.  I suspect they're not going to jeopardize the curve.  They'll go slow opening the areas with the least cases first in middle America.  They'll create benchmarks of the number of cases and deaths before opening up subsequent areas modified by how things work in the early opened areas.  I agree it's fraught with danger.  There probably will be slips and starts and mistakes.  There's no way to avoid that in war.  We're going to need a lot of luck.  I hope God gives us a break.  Maybe we need to do some soul searching.  It's a good time. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Finally, clear, concise Covid-19 laws we can all follow:

The 17 Rules:

1. Basically, you can't leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can.

2. Masks are useless, but maybe you have to wear one, it can save you, it is useless, but maybe it is mandatory as well.

3. Stores are closed, except those that are open.

4. You should not go to hospitals unless you have to go there. Same applies to doctors, you should only go there in case of emergency, provided you are not too sick.

5. Gloves won't help, but they can still help.

6. Everyone needs to stay HOME, but it's important to GO OUT.

7. The virus has no effect on children except those it affects.

8. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…

9. You will have many symptoms when you are sick, but you can also get sick without symptoms, have symptoms without being sick, or be contagious without having symptoms...

10. In order not to get sick, you have to eat well and exercise, but eat whatever you have on hand and it's better not to go out, well, but no…

11. If you are sick, you can't go out, but you can go to the pharmacy.

12. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house, which may have been prepared by people who didn't wear masks or gloves. But you have to have your groceries decontaminated.

13. You are safe if you maintain the appropriate social distance, but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance.

14. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours, no, four, no, six, no, we didn't say hours, maybe days? But it takes a damp environment. Oh no, not necessarily.

15. The virus stays in the air - well no, or yes, maybe, especially in a closed room, in one hour a sick person can infect ten, so if it falls, all our children were already infected at school before it was closed. But remember, if you stay at the recommended social distance, however in certain circumstances you should maintain a greater distance, which, studies show, the virus can travel further, maybe.

16. We count the number of deaths but we don't know how many people are infected as we have only tested so far those who were "almost dead" to find out if that's what they will die of…

17. We should stay locked up until the virus disappears, but it will only disappear if we achieve collective immunity, so when it circulates… but we must no longer be locked up for that?

Credit : Anonymous

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Instead of spending two weeks in bed and be done with it, millions upon millions will spend the next two years in a recession matched only by the 1930s one, leading a truly miserable life. Make it billions world-wide. And in poor countries that means almost certain death for many.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... Btw, Romania (my native country and your neighbor)...

I have a little gift for you. You are welcome 

[Paulo Bizarro]

Whenever an analysis is posted online without being a reputable source/peer reviewed I would start with one question: Cui prodest?
Sometimes we want to make simple things than cannot be, in this case the interactions. If you read the comments there are some good points there, at least one about the incomplete analysis and another one about human behavior, maybe those stay-at-home orders didn't impact that much the actual behavior, in most places wasn't really enforced in the beginning.

Indeed, itrequires at least 70% of people obeying the lockdown for it to be effective. The idea of lockdown is to reduce R0 of the virus. After 1 month in Portugal, where people have obeyed restrictions, the R0 went down from 2.5 to 0.8. Scientists estimate that countries can start to reopen slowly when R0 is 0.7.

Norway is opening up slowly, and their R0 is 0.7.

[Paulo Bizarro]

I don't follow. My understanding is that the Danish government is taking this step because they feel they have flattened the curve enough to open this service. That's not a sign of sanity amidst the hysterics, it's where everyone wants to be. Presumably, that will be everyone's SOP.

Neither the USA or Canada is there yet, nor are many other countries so I don't see why we should be thinking about that yet. I just checked the stats and the USA is on track for another 2000 death day. Canada, unfortunately, just reached 1000 total deaths, but the graphs are still sloping up. Make plans for how to relax restrictions, to be sure, that's what authorities should be doing, but it makes no sense to act on the plans prematurely.

Regardless of what point people think it is ok to relax restrictions, it surely has to be sometime after peaking. But we're certainly not there yet.

Exactly. It depends on where you are relative to the progress of the infection and how effectively the R0 has been reduced. In the USA, which can be looked at as several "countries", each region is on a different part of the curve. Same in Europe, where the countries earlier affected are reopening slowly.

[Rob C]

Right. But we didn't close the whole god damn country because of it, nor intentionally crashed the economy.

No, but you crashed the world in '08 with your mothereffin' bank and mortage money con-artists! I know about that: my dying wife had to try and co-sign papers as we desperately attempted to shift our accounts from one jurisdiction to another one that offered minimal protection if all else failed. Seeing a woman who hardly had the strength to hold a pen struggle to do that made me realise like never before what a gang of thieves we have in control of the world's money: a greedy, amoral, incompetent, criminal bunch of shitheads. So much for your super-capitalists. Now go congratulate them. With luck, maybe Corrina will find them and bite their collective ass just to make up for the legal indolence that let them off the bleedin' hook and afforded them the opportunity to dig even deeper into political power.