PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[Alan Klein]

In all other countries some of their C19 deaths will be attributed to other causes - pneumonia, flu, heart attacks. In addition, there will be other indirect deaths (due to diabetes, fractures, other infections, late cancer detections, postponed elective surgeries, etc.) because of the lack of the medical resources (doctors, nurses, ambulances, lab tests). 

That's the point I made.  That more people died from this virus than the death certificate in either NYC or in other places would accurately show.

[BernardLanguillier]

But vaccination won't be available for 12-18 months, maybe.  And there's no pre-existing immunity - this is the first time the virus has infected us.  So it seems that it must go through society so we develop herd immunity,  something Slobo recommended weeks ago when he said we shouldn't self-isolate.  At least we would have saved our economies. After all, what advantage is it to me as an old fart with conditions getting the infection now or 6 or 12 months from now?  Well, there could be an antidote.  So that would be helpful.  Otherwise, it's pay now or pay later.

The casualties are proportional to the degree of overload of critical medical facilities.

This why countries have been trying to flatten the curve, meaning to lower the peak and prolounge the duration.

The tool available to slow down propagation is social distancing.

The purpose is to save lives.

Cheers,
Bernard

[chez]

That is usually what happens in the summer.  Very fast observation.

What happens? Distancing or communal get togethers. I know I see way more get togethers when the weather is warm...bars, patios, restaurants, parties...

[chez]

But vaccination won't be available for 12-18 months, maybe.  And there's no pre-existing immunity - this is the first time the virus has infected us.  So it seems that it must go through society so we develop herd immunity,  something Slobo recommended weeks ago when he said we shouldn't self-isolate.  At least we would have saved our economies. After all, what advantage is it to me as an old fart with conditions getting the infection now or 6 or 12 months from now?  Well, there could be an antidote.  So that would be helpful.  Otherwise, it's pay now or pay later.

Yeh...listen to Slobo and not the experts.

[LesPalenik]

How do you know that it won't go away by itself? How else is it going away?  We don't have any vaccine or antidote.  How does the flu go away every year?

Firstly, it's unrealistic to hope that it will go away by itself. Secondly, looking at the current trends and history just in the last three months in the most affected countries (USA, UK, Spain, Italy and Trance), it's obvious that we haven't reached the peak yet.

[chez]

The casualties are proportional to the degree of overload of critical medical facilities.

This why countries have been trying to flatten the curve, meaning to lower the peak and prolounge the duration.

The purpose is to save lives.

Cheers,
Bernard

Exactly. Seems people that just want to get exposed and get over it don't really understand. Maybe they need to spend a night at one of the NY hospitals...or better the make shift morgues so they get a better appreciations of what happens when your medical system is overrun.

[Alan Klein]

Yeh...listen to Slobo and not the experts.

You didn't address my main scientific analysis.  You only took the time to take a cheap shot against Slobo. 

[Alan Klein]

Firstly, it's unrealistic to hope that it will go away by itself. Secondly, looking at the current trends and history just in the last three months in the most affected countries (USA, UK, Spain, Italy and Trance), it's obvious that we haven't reached the peak yet.

How does the flu go away every year?

[JoeKitchen]

What happens? Distancing or communal get togethers. I know I see way more get togethers when the weather is warm...bars, patios, restaurants, parties...

Get togethers, I meant. 

But there is also a lot more sun light and heat, things that kill viruses.  If the additional summer get togethers along with greater sun exposure made things worse, flu season would be June through September.  I think we are looking at a great decrease followed by a second wave in the winter. 

[chez]

You didn't address my main scientific analysis.  You only took the time to take a cheap shot against Slobo.

Elaborate you scientific analysis. I didn't see anything scientific.

[Alan Klein]

Get togethers, I meant. 

But there is also a lot more sun light and heat, things that kill viruses.  If the additional summer get togethers along with greater sun exposure made things worse, flu season would be June through September.  I think we are looking at a great decrease followed by a second wave in the winter. 

If that's true, we better come up with an antidote.  Of course they say we get the common cold more often in the winter because we're cooped up with each other.  Kids in schools and at home.  Not being out as much.  Maybe our experience with Covid will get us to be more careful in the future with other infectious diseases.  More washing our hands, isolation when you get sick.  How many times do you go out with friends or to a poker game or whatever, and someone's coughing and sneezing all over the place?  Maybe we'll be more considerate, wear masks and stay home when we're not feeling well. Maybe employers will see the advantage of giving let's say 4 days of annual sick leave just for colds.  Keeping people home means less downtime for their other employees.  It could mean a lot less seasonal flu cases and deaths.  MAybe our experience with Covid may protect us against a more serious disease in the future that could be a worse killer like the Spanish FLu was.  Maybe that's the silver lining in this dark cloud.

[LesPalenik]

How does the flu go away every year?

Alan, you'll have to ask someone else. I am more a statistician than a doctor or biochemist.

[chez]

Get togethers, I meant. 

But there is also a lot more sun light and heat, things that kill viruses.  If the additional summer get togethers along with greater sun exposure made things worse, flu season would be June through September.  I think we are looking at a great decrease followed by a second wave in the winter.

Possibly...but then it seems to be quite active in traditional hot zones like New Orleans and Florida. And in hot muggy countries like Brazil where it appears to be getting out of control.

[Alan Klein]

Why does the seasonal flu go away every year and just not continue through the whole year?

[Alan Klein]

Possibly...but then it seems to be quite active in traditional hot zones like New Orleans and Florida. And in hot muggy countries like Brazil where it appears to be getting out of control.

CO2.

[JoeKitchen]

Possibly...but then it seems to be quite active in traditional hot zones like New Orleans and Florida. And in hot muggy countries like Brazil where it appears to be getting out of control.

I think part of the reason it is active through out the globe is that it is either spring or autumn everywhere.  The temps and sun exposure are the same regardless, but we will have to see. 

[Alan Klein]

Here's a post I did regarding possible help to patients.  It's on another thread.  But I'm reposting it here.

Quote from: JoeKitchen on Today at 10:37:33 pm
Here's an English Stilton I started two weeks ago that is just starting to turn blue.  Stilton and Rochefort are essentially the same cheese, only Rochefort is aged at 98% RH (the ideal humidity for Penicillium Roqueforti growth) with Stilton being aged at 84% RH.  At 98% RH that mold will just go out of control and will never really die.  Great for blue mold development, but not so great for flavor to develop from the bacteria culture.

At 84% the growth is slowly allowing for longer aging and more flavor development from the bacteria instead.  In a month the entire wheel will be blue, at two months hairy and wrinkly, at 4 month the mold on the outside will start to die, and at 6 months the wheel will have turned yellow and start to produce a natural rind.  You can then age it for another 6 months after that.

Rochefort will be too far along to even smell without passing out at around 7 months just due to the better conditions for the mold.  So a lot depends on the aging conditions.

Your experience with cheeses got me thinking about coronavirus.  While molds are bacteria, not viruses, it's interesting that it's both temperature and humidity that affect the process.
Warmer air can carry more water vapor.  The higher the temperature the higher the amount of water vapor in the air.  Yet the relative humidity stays the same.  That's why they call it relative humidity.

For example, there's ten times the amount of water vapor in the air at 50C degrees than at 10C degrees. Yet the RH relative humidity is the same 50%

So maybe viruses are more affected by humidity or water vapor that changes its viability during certain seasons.  Maybe the way to treat sick people is to place them in enclosures where the humidity and temperature can be controlled to kill off the virus or at least present conditions that slow down its effectiveness and spread within the patient.  Breathing higher or lower humidified air at higher or lower temperatures ought to be researched to see if patients improve.  I think I'll send another email to NIH.  Anyone want to pass along ideas before I do, please post here.

[LesPalenik]

If the virus is already in your body, that's a different climate than outside, so I'm not sure how the external humidity and temperature affects the virus in the lungs.

[Rob C]

For a bunch of photographers at best (one or two people who have also studied medicine excluded), we seem to be an amazing collection of experts on matters medical, on strategy to prevent disease, and upon practically everything else.

Thank goodness we have the denizens of deepest LuLa to hold the guiding candle for us all. We would never make it through this blackest of nights without your light!

[Craig Lamson]

For a bunch of photographers at best (one or two people who have also studied medicine excluded), we seem to be an amazing collection of experts on matters medical, on strategy to prevent disease, and upon practically everything else.

Thank goodness we have the denizens of deepest LuLa to hold the guiding candle for us all. We would never make it through this blackest of nights without your light!

But Rob, we have Google.