PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

I haven't seen any concrete data that says you cannot get infected a 2nd time...nor that the virus can mutate over time.

The latest reports (from HK, I think) say that those who were seeming infected for the 2nd time had false positives. I might find a link.

Found it: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-patients-infected-twice-test-a9491986.html?fbclid=IwAR1yoOkam2yHGJ_L6p6UpPGXss9YyJOU_8tU-kmYDuwdmzcMp0AF7pl1QnA

[chez]

Oh, Joe, just stay home like everyone else and wait for the government check.  What?  It's our China's money.  That's like getting a blood transfusion into your left arm from your right arm.   

Fixed it for you Alan.

[Alan Klein]

As I keep pointing out, Sweden is in trouble. Some of the people here seem to have severe problems understanding simple numbers -- Sweden has a higher death rate per million (so far) than anywhere on earth except the central European counties, which got hit hard before they had a chance to defend themselves, and the US, which had millions of visitors from the infested zone, and is also saddled with Dumbo the Orange Elephant as President. Sweden has 263 deaths per million, for Christ's sakes, compared to 39 in its closest neighbor, Norway. It has has more deaths per million than any other Scandinavian country, or, indeed, any of the countries on the European periphery. Why do people to continue to hold it up as an example that we should emulate? (Actually, I know the answer to that question, but I'm too polite to post it.)

Sweden is in trouble now? What about next year or even sooner?  Will they set up herd immunity?  Also, why did the WHO compliment them for their policies?  You weaken your arguments by calling the president names. 

[Robert Roaldi]

We might be using the term "herd immunity" a bit too loosely. Does anyone know what is officially meant by the term?

[Alan Klein]

Fixed it for you Alan.

Don't change my post that's in quotes. That's not polite.  It's wrong.  Paraphrase my words or whatever.  But leave them alone.  Jeremy please advise all posters that changing the words in a quote from another post is not allowed.

[Craig Lamson]

Trump knows a secret and he's not telling https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/donald-trump-coronavirus-chinese-lab-claim, claiming that the virus originated in a Chinese lab, in contradiction to his own intelligence staff.

Let's see, will he walk this back on Saturday or Sunday?

Have we entered the Twilight Zone?

I mean if there was a lab in China working on biological weapons, surely they could do better than this.

More fake news.  Did you actually read the story?  The story claims the Intelligence head  says the virus was not genetically modified or man made.  It do NOT say the virus did not come from the Wuhan lab.  Do you understand there might be a difference between modifed or made and simply a virus under study that may have escaped? 

[Alan Klein]

We might be using the term "herd immunity" a bit too loosely. Does anyone know what is officially meant by the term?

"Herd immunity (also called herd effect, community immunity, population immunity, or social immunity) is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through previous infections or vaccination, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune.[1][2] In a population in which a large proportion of individuals possess immunity, such people being unlikely to contribute to disease transmission, chains of infection are more likely to be disrupted, which either stops or slows the spread of disease.[3] The greater the proportion of immune individuals in a community, the smaller the probability that non-immune individuals will come into contact with an infectious individual, helping to shield non-immune individuals from infection.[1]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

[Craig Lamson]

Carrying automatic guns to a protest?

Those would be SEMI automatic weapons, and open carry of long rifles is legal in many US States.

[JoeKitchen]

Joe, not everything is black or white regardless your desire to do so. Subtleties and actual comprehension are essential.

1. Yes, I wrote it's criminal to defund WHO now. We are in the midst of a pandemic and many countries are depending on WHO, and even if they make mistakes they are a positive force in this fight. If there is an overhaul to be made, now it's not the moment but after this is over, not to mention overhauls don't usually start with defunding. This is just Trump trying to deflect blame.

2. You continually fail to get this: is this official WHO policy that countries should follow Sweden's model?
Or just one of their experts thinking out loud? Until it's official policy there is nothing to discuss here.

And you have yet to actually address what I wrote before but that's not unusual for you, you are only interested in answering where you think you can score points for your mythical windmill battle.

So it’s okay to think out loud? 

FYI I prefer dams to windmills, much more reliable!

[JoeKitchen]

Swedes are working from home.

Last I check the restaurants are open and attended.  Kind of hard to do that work from home. 

[JoeKitchen]

Not the lock downs but the WHO. You call them a bunch of garbage when they make certain statements, but when they make a statement that lines up with your views...you parade around that statement.

Wrong again. 

Just pointing out to the liberals their own exulted institution is suggesting this.  If some both exults a institution and then argues against it, like with liberals and WHO, it makes no sense. 

[faberryman]

So it’s okay to think out loud? 

I think it depends on what you say. There is an aphorism: "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt."

[elliot_n]

Sweden is in trouble now? What about next year or even sooner?  Will they set up herd immunity?

Sweden has had 2,600 Covid deaths. If we assume a Case Fatality Rate of 1%, that means there have been 260,000 Covid cases. Sweden has a population of 10.23 million, so 2.5% of Swedes have had Covid.

97.5% of Swedes have not had Covid. They are a long way from herd immunity (if such a concept even makes sense).

[William Walker]

They're two months closer to herd immunity than everyone else.  Except New Yorkers.

Alan,
"For mumps, you need 92 percent of the population to be immune for the disease to stop spreading entirely. This is what's known as the herd immunity threshold. COVID-19 is, fortunately, much less infectious than mumps, with an estimated R0 of roughly 3.

With this number, the proportion of people who need to be infected is lower but still high, sitting at around 70 percent of the entire population.

Sweden has 21,520 cases - for herd immunity they would need (Pop. 10,099,265) 6, 059, 559cases. At this rate this will be achieved in 281 months, which is 23 years.

[JoeKitchen]

Alan,
"For mumps, you need 92 percent of the population to be immune for the disease to stop spreading entirely. This is what's known as the herd immunity threshold. COVID-19 is, fortunately, much less infectious than mumps, with an estimated R0 of roughly 3.

With this number, the proportion of people who need to be infected is lower but still high, sitting at around 70 percent of the entire population.

Sweden has 21,520 cases - for herd immunity they would need (Pop. 10,099,265) 6, 059, 559cases. At this rate this will be achieved in 281 months, which is 23 years.

Confirmed cases!  Projected based on antibody testing is much higher. 

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Last I check the restaurants are open and attended.  Kind of hard to do that work from home.

Maybe. One could also check alternative sources of information:
See how your community is moving around differently due to COVID-19
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

As global communities respond to COVID-19, we've heard from public health officials that the same type of aggregated, anonymized insights we use in products such as Google Maps could be helpful as they make critical decisions to combat COVID-19.

These Community Mobility Reports aim to provide insights into what has changed in response to policies aimed at combating COVID-19. The reports chart movement trends over time by geography, across different categories of places such as retail and recreation, groceries and pharmacies, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residential.

Swedish people apparently like to visit parks a lot.

[chez]

Those would be SEMI automatic weapons, and open carry of long rifles is legal in many US States.

Just because you can doesn't mean you should.

[chez]

Wrong again. 

Just pointing out to the liberals their own exulted institution is suggesting this.  If some both exults a institution and then argues against it, like with liberals and WHO, it makes no sense.

Makes the same amount of sense as you holding up this article by the WHO while blasting them on other occasions...when they don't align with your biased views. Can't have it both ways.

[JoeKitchen]

Makes the same amount of sense as you holding up this article by the WHO while blasting them on other occasions...when they don't align with your biased views. Can't have it both ways.

I’m not having it both ways, just pointing out the hypocracy of the left.

[Alan Klein]

Alan,
"For mumps, you need 92 percent of the population to be immune for the disease to stop spreading entirely. This is what's known as the herd immunity threshold. COVID-19 is, fortunately, much less infectious than mumps, with an estimated R0 of roughly 3.

With this number, the proportion of people who need to be infected is lower but still high, sitting at around 70 percent of the entire population.

Sweden has 21,520 cases - for herd immunity they would need (Pop. 10,099,265) 6, 059, 559cases. At this rate this will be achieved in 281 months, which is 23 years.

The Swedish administrator stated on TV a few days ago that they have an 20% infection rate in Stockholm, much less outside of the city.