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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 76559 times)

PeterAit

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1140 on: May 14, 2020, 04:57:26 pm »

Required reading for those who are doubtful about the utility of wearing a mask.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infections-would-plummet-new-study-says

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John Camp

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1141 on: May 14, 2020, 08:06:29 pm »

Nicholas Kristoff has an interesting statistics-based column in the NYT that says the US has already had around 110,000 deaths from the corona virus. He also notes that there is a fairly large number of people who didn't die from a decline in traffic accidents, crime, etc.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1142 on: May 14, 2020, 08:45:14 pm »

Nicholas Kristoff has an interesting statistics-based column in the NYT that says the US has already had around 110,000 deaths from the corona virus. He also notes that there is a fairly large number of people who didn't die from a decline in traffic accidents, crime, etc.
NYC had 68 day run of no pedestrian deaths.  Considering NYC is the jaywalking capital of the world, that's pretty good. 

Ray

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1143 on: May 14, 2020, 09:09:54 pm »

I had the same kind of diet you did growing up but that doesn't mean much.  What works for you, works for you and that's about all one can say.

I wonder if you really did have the same kind of diet, apart from fish and eggs. I was also given lots of fresh vegetables. I recall my mother once beating me with a wooden spoon because I refused to eat the spinach on my plate, because I didn't like the taste of spinach.  ;D

White bread was banned from my household. Wholemeal bread, Kellogg's All Bran, Wheat Germ, Full-Cream milk, pure cream, cheese, yoghurt, and of course, unrefined raw cane sugar, were among the staple foods when I was young.

Now in my 70's, my diet is pretty much the same. I always insist on full-cream milk and I still have a mixture of Kellogg's All Bran, Wheat Germ, Whole Grain Oats, and fresh fruit for breakfast.

I eat in moderation. I don't avoid or worry about natural fats, and I'm not overweight. However, I also exercise regularly, taking a long walk on most days and sometimes do intermittent jogging for brief moments up a steep hill, to get myself breathing really heavily.  ;)
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1144 on: May 15, 2020, 03:36:05 am »

This should perhaps go in the humour section, but it's a serious thing, and shows how stupid and cruel the government and city officials can be. It happened in Switzerland, but it could happen also in other countries. According to the Covid-19 regulation, couples and families when outside must also keep a distance of two meters in public.

Quote
Neue Zuercher Zeitung, May 15:
A young woman from Zurich has been fined by the city police for violating the distance rules, even though she and her partner have lived in the same household for one and a half years. She lodged an appeal against the city police.

A few days ago, she received a negative decision: You and her partner must pay the fine of CHF 100 each. "The requirement for the minimum distance between people in the public space must also be met by larger families or household groups," it says in the letter that is available to the NZZ. The woman works as a lawyer in the financial sector and has been living in Zurich for a good decade.

https://www.nzz.ch/zuerich/coronavirus-polizei-buesst-paar-weil-sie-abstand-nicht-einhalten-ld.1556203
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1145 on: May 15, 2020, 11:11:28 am »

Here's a question for Alan G.  Why is it that every year we get the seasonal flu vaccine that's different than the year before. Apparently, the flu strain changes year to year.  But do we test it teh vaccine?  How is it developed and made effecable so quickly?  We don;t need 12-18 months.  Why can't we do something similar with Covid 19? 

Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1146 on: May 15, 2020, 11:19:03 am »

Here's a question for Alan G.  Why is it that every year we get the seasonal flu vaccine that's different than the year before. Apparently, the flu strain changes year to year.  But do we test it teh vaccine?  How is it developed and made effecable so quickly?  We don;t need 12-18 months.  Why can't we do something similar with Covid 19?

I may have posted this before, a good description of how vaccines are developed, good info to know, under an hour long, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cYWd0N8nO4. And no, I can't summarize it in a paragraph or two for you.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1147 on: May 15, 2020, 11:22:30 am »

I'll wait for Alan G's answer. Thanks. :)

Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1148 on: May 15, 2020, 01:13:51 pm »

I'll wait for Alan G's answer. Thanks. :)

The explanation that you want about the new yearly flu vaccine is discussed starting a minute 31 of that video I gave in the earlier post.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1149 on: May 15, 2020, 03:20:02 pm »

The explanation that you want about the new yearly flu vaccine is discussed starting a minute 31 of that video I gave in the earlier post.
That was helpful.  Thanks Rob.  Regular flu doesn't vary year to year that much.  So the approving agencies don't require the same testing regimen.  As an aside,  I recall reading that the flu vaccine reduces death and cases 10% and 20%.  Rather minor amounts which surprised me.  I may have those numbers reversed.

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1150 on: May 15, 2020, 04:22:20 pm »

Here's a question for Alan G.  Why is it that every year we get the seasonal flu vaccine that's different than the year before. Apparently, the flu strain changes year to year.  But do we test it teh vaccine?  How is it developed and made effecable so quickly?  We don;t need 12-18 months.  Why can't we do something similar with Covid 19?
The influenza virus mutates every year.  Scientists evaluate the strains that are prevalent in January and make a decision about which are important to include in the vaccine strain for production.  Flu vaccine is produced in fertilized eggs and a lot of them!!!!  It is a slow process and one that has been used for many years.  They don't do clinical trials on the vaccine but rely on the manufacturing process.  There have been some attempts to use more modern technologies but these have been slow to develop.

We cannot do this for COVID-19 as it's not clear that the virus can be produced in the same manner as with flu vaccine.  We also have no idea how potent the COVID-19 vaccine will be in terms of providing protection or anything about the safety.  The troubling outbreak of Kawasaki Disease in young people and that this might be an autoimmune response.  this will be a red flag with a vaccine that might cause the same syndrome.  All new vaccines are extensively tested for safety in 50-70,000 people.  If they hope to launch a COVID-19 vaccine by January this step will not be done.

To put this in context, the mumps vaccine had the shortest development time of any approved vaccine at just under four years.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1151 on: May 15, 2020, 04:24:36 pm »

That was helpful.  Thanks Rob.  Regular flu doesn't vary year to year that much.  So the approving agencies don't require the same testing regimen.  As an aside,  I recall reading that the flu vaccine reduces death and cases 10% and 20%.  Rather minor amounts which surprised me.  I may have those numbers reversed.
Regular flu can vary a lot and cause big problems as was seen in 1957 and 1968.  Each year had epidemics.  If they guess right about the flu strains to be used in the vaccine, the protective rate is higher than you write.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1152 on: May 15, 2020, 06:22:12 pm »

Very educational.   Thanks Alan.

Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1153 on: May 18, 2020, 12:06:46 pm »

Just a quick report from Portugal. After the first 2 weeks of slow and phased reopening, the indications are positive in terms of the infection rates, with Rt ~0.96. We are having about 200 new cases every day, which is similar to the last days before reopening. Number of deaths has been decreasing, so has number of patients in hospitals and ICUs.

Today we are reopening pre-schools (children up to 3 years old), shops up to 400m2, and restaurants (at 50% capacity), all with strict rules to mitigate risk as much as possible. Classes have also restarted in schools for students who are in the secondary grade and need to take exams for the university.

Next milestone: beach reopening 6th June, again with several measures in place, to limit the amount of people.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1154 on: May 22, 2020, 07:28:32 am »

Interesting complication in testing for infectiousness.

Recovered COVID-19 patients test positive but not infectious
“Re-positive” cases didn't spread disease or shed virus.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/feared-reactivation-of-covid-19-infections-disputed-by-new-data/

Quote
People who recover from COVID-19 but test positive for the virus again days or weeks later are not shedding viral particles and are not infectious, according to data released Tuesday by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The so-called “re-positive” cases have raised fears that an infection with the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, could “reactivate” in recovered patients or that recovering from the infection may fail to produce even short-lived immunity, allowing patients to immediately become re-infected if they are exposed.

The new data from Korea should ease those concerns.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1155 on: May 22, 2020, 10:10:26 am »

Interesting complication in testing for infectiousness.

Recovered COVID-19 patients test positive but not infectious
“Re-positive” cases didn't spread disease or shed virus.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/feared-reactivation-of-covid-19-infections-disputed-by-new-data/

My 70 year old friend who recovered from it will be glad to hear that he can't infect his wife who's coming home soon from Thailand where she's been with their daughter for many months.   However, it also appears that a previously infected person can still suffer again from symptoms although not as bad. Thanks.

armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1156 on: May 22, 2020, 10:31:29 am »

Interesting complication in testing for infectiousness.

Recovered COVID-19 patients test positive but not infectious
“Re-positive” cases didn't spread disease or shed virus.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/feared-reactivation-of-covid-19-infections-disputed-by-new-data/

The jury is still out, I want to see why this is happening (seems a combo of what is tested and some form of milder reactivation?) and the clinical evolution.

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1157 on: May 22, 2020, 10:42:27 am »

The Lancet published the largest observational data set for hydroxychloroquine: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext  covering a lot of hospitals in six countries.  Take away quote:  We were unable to confirm a benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, when used alone or with a macrolide, on in-hospital outcomes for COVID-19. Each of these drug regimens was associated with decreased in-hospital survival and an increased frequency of ventricular arrhythmias when used for treatment of COVID-19.
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Craig Lamson

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1158 on: May 22, 2020, 12:52:18 pm »

The Lancet published the largest observational data set for hydroxychloroquine: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext  covering a lot of hospitals in six countries.  Take away quote:  We were unable to confirm a benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, when used alone or with a macrolide, on in-hospital outcomes for COVID-19. Each of these drug regimens was associated with decreased in-hospital survival and an increased frequency of ventricular arrhythmias when used for treatment of COVID-19.

I found this to be a bit more of a money quote, but thats just me.

"Our study has several limitations. The association of decreased survival with hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine treatment regimens should be interpreted cautiously. Due to the observational study design, we cannot exclude the possibility of unmeasured confounding factors, although we have reassuringly noted consistency between the primary analysis and the propensity score matched analyses."
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1159 on: May 22, 2020, 12:55:50 pm »

I found this to be a bit more of a money quote, but thats just me.

"Our study has several limitations. The association of decreased survival with hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine treatment regimens should be interpreted cautiously. Due to the observational study design, we cannot exclude the possibility of unmeasured confounding factors, although we have reassuringly noted consistency between the primary analysis and the propensity score matched analyses."
And 90% of the positive HCQ papers I have read suffer from this problem and even worse, they don't have anywhere near the number of patients in the analysis.  Anyone is free to believe in magical thinking but if it puts one's life in peril, that's not the approach to take.  There is no question that HCQ and espcially with azithromycin is dangerous at a non-negligible level.  Anyone taking the drug should be monitored by a doctor for arrhythmia before starting therapy.
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