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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 76564 times)

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1080 on: May 11, 2020, 10:23:17 am »

Social distancing now mandated everywhere.

« Last Edit: May 11, 2020, 10:40:58 am by LesPalenik »
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1081 on: May 11, 2020, 11:41:11 am »

Social distancing now mandated everywhere.


At the theatre, that's going to make Men's Room lines as long as the Women's.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1082 on: May 11, 2020, 01:17:25 pm »

If it's going to be a hard call, why is everyone saying we need to have a lot of testing?

When the economy is restarted, as soon as someone develops symptoms then he/she needs to be tested if it indeed is SARS-CoV-2. So there must be no shortage of testing capabilities. If he/she is tested positive then that person must be isolated, and then all contacts since the moment one is assumed to have been contagious must be quarantined and also tested, and if positive put in isolation.

That will reduce the spread of the virus, while those who test negative can resume their (economic) activities.

Quote
It seems to be an issue that people are making political points.

No, it's not a conspiracy, it's plain logical thinking.
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== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1083 on: May 11, 2020, 02:37:49 pm »

What does track and trace have to do with testing and opening the economy?  There's no way to test 340 million people daily to see who has the virus.  How would you track the million people who use the NYC subways every day (before the shutdown), coughing and sneezing on each other, etc. ?  Over two million New Yorkers already have had the infection according to sampling tests.  How do the Chinese and the So Koreans track and isolate?  Again, the question is how does testing stop the virus and allow leaders to make decisions on when to open their economies? YOur answer isn't clear.
The South Koreans use smart phone apps to track contacts using blue tooth technology.  There is an MIT group that has developed the same thing.  You don't test everyone all the time.  You do need a lot more testing capacity than we have today.  This will answer your questions:  https://www.businessinsider.com/how-contact-tracing-works-to-stop-coronavirus-spread-2020-4   I'm sorry that I don't have time to write something out for you.
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1084 on: May 11, 2020, 02:52:33 pm »

At the theatre, that's going to make Men's Room lines as long as the Women's.

No worry, the theatre won't be full, as inside there will be 3 empty seats required for the minimum 6ft distance from the next patron.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1085 on: May 11, 2020, 03:50:58 pm »

No worry, the theatre won't be full, as inside there will be 3 empty seats required for the minimum 6ft distance from the next patron.
So I can sit 3 seats away from my wife?

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1087 on: May 11, 2020, 04:07:06 pm »

When the economy is restarted, as soon as someone develops symptoms then he/she needs to be tested if it indeed is SARS-CoV-2. So there must be no shortage of testing capabilities. If he/she is tested positive then that person must be isolated, and then all contacts since the moment one is assumed to have been contagious must be quarantined and also tested, and if positive put in isolation.

That will reduce the spread of the virus, while those who test negative can resume their (economic) activities.

No, it's not a conspiracy, it's plain logical thinking.
Testing doesn;t seem to be a problem here in Central NJ if you want to get a test. It seems all the towns in the area have these set up. Anyone can have a test if they want.  No symptoms required. Currently 29% of those tested in my town were positive.  Of course, those are not random tests so there's no way to know the true rate.  If the random rate is over 20% as was discovered in NYC, there no way to testing will help you find anyone except those that ask for the tests.  You can't test two million people.  That's just in NYC. 

My friend apparently had the virus.  But he recovered at home.  Never went to the hospital and was never tested. So how to you trace and track?

It's still not clear how testing helps determine when to open the economy in an area which is what testing was touted.  While trace and track might be a good idea, how do you do that if most people are asymptomatic and are never tested?  Sure you can track those that come in sick.  But those who stay home like my friend or who don;t have symptoms but still pass along the virus won't be tracked.  Maybe I'm missing something someone you could explain here.

As an aside, who's tracing and tracking and quarantining in any of the 50 states?  Is that constitutional?  You're going to lock people up for 14 days without a court order?   Shades of Japanese internment camps of WWII?   Who's doing this in Europe?  Canada?  Australia?

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1088 on: May 11, 2020, 05:56:56 pm »

Testing doesn;t seem to be a problem here in Central NJ if you want to get a test. It seems all the towns in the area have these set up. Anyone can have a test if they want.  No symptoms required. Currently 29% of those tested in my town were positive.  Of course, those are not random tests so there's no way to know the true rate.  If the random rate is over 20% as was discovered in NYC, there no way to testing will help you find anyone except those that ask for the tests.  You can't test two million people.  That's just in NYC. 

My friend apparently had the virus.  But he recovered at home.  Never went to the hospital and was never tested. So how to you trace and track?

It's still not clear how testing helps determine when to open the economy in an area which is what testing was touted.  While trace and track might be a good idea, how do you do that if most people are asymptomatic and are never tested?  Sure you can track those that come in sick.  But those who stay home like my friend or who don;t have symptoms but still pass along the virus won't be tracked.  Maybe I'm missing something someone you could explain here.

You have lots of questions for me an others.  Here are some for you:
When will you and your wife go out for dinner at a restaurant?
When will you book a plane ticket?
When will you go on a cruise ship for a vacation?
When will you go out shopping at a mall?
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Chris Kern

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1089 on: May 11, 2020, 06:37:28 pm »

As an aside, who's tracing and tracking and quarantining in any of the 50 states?  Is that constitutional?  You're going to lock people up for 14 days without a court order?   Shades of Japanese internment camps of WWII?   Who's doing this in Europe?  Canada?  Australia?

Once again, you really should be using your "playpen" thread for these bizarre rhetorical rants.

BobShaw

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1090 on: May 11, 2020, 07:08:56 pm »

As an aside, who's tracing and tracking and quarantining in any of the 50 states?  Is that constitutional?  You're going to lock people up for 14 days without a court order?   Shades of Japanese internment camps of WWII?   Who's doing this in Europe?  Canada?  Australia?

Well I can only speak for Australia.
Any new arrival from anywhere, even Australians, if they are more than 20 minutes from home, must spend 14 days in quarantine. They are taken by bus from the tarmac.

It is in a 5 star hotel paid for by the state government. They can not leave the room. Police and military (unarmed) enforce it. All meals are brought to them. After 14 days they are given a letter saying they have been quarantined and taken to the airport to catch a flight domestically.

We have a Covid Safe App that works on Bluetooth for Apple and Android. It is voluntary but to date about 5 million out of 25 million population have downloaded it. The Federal government wants 8 million.

This morning we had no new cases (first time) from about 8000 tests and no deaths in NSW which has a population of about 7.5 million. They are testing anyone with any flu like symptoms however mild. Kids are now going back to school and restaurants are being progressively reopened with restrictions from Friday. Many are saying they are staying closed because they are uneconomical to open with reduced seating.

There are a few Covidiots protesting about their freedom and they get a $1000 first offence social distancing fine for their trouble. Most are just doing the right thing. The government is paying $1500 per fortnight as a Jobkeeper Payment to keep people employed, which is more money than they sometimes earn anyway. Not sure how long they will keep doing that.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1091 on: May 11, 2020, 08:01:44 pm »

Once again, you really should be using your "playpen" thread for these bizarre rhetorical rants.
If you don't have an answer to the question, just let others give it a try instead of resorting to insults.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1092 on: May 11, 2020, 08:06:17 pm »

Well I can only speak for Australia.
Any new arrival from anywhere, even Australians, if they are more than 20 minutes from home, must spend 14 days in quarantine. They are taken by bus from the tarmac.

It is in a 5 star hotel paid for by the state government. They can not leave the room. Police and military (unarmed) enforce it. All meals are brought to them. After 14 days they are given a letter saying they have been quarantined and taken to the airport to catch a flight domestically.

We have a Covid Safe App that works on Bluetooth for Apple and Android. It is voluntary but to date about 5 million out of 25 million population have downloaded it. The Federal government wants 8 million.

This morning we had no new cases (first time) from about 8000 tests and no deaths in NSW which has a population of about 7.5 million. They are testing anyone with any flu like symptoms however mild. Kids are now going back to school and restaurants are being progressively reopened with restrictions from Friday. Many are saying they are staying closed because they are uneconomical to open with reduced seating.

There are a few Covidiots protesting about their freedom and they get a $1000 first offence social distancing fine for their trouble. Most are just doing the right thing. The government is paying $1500 per fortnight as a Jobkeeper Payment to keep people employed, which is more money than they sometimes earn anyway. Not sure how long they will keep doing that.
Are people allowed to be quarantined who are found to be sick or possibly sick because they came in contact with a carrier?

John Camp

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1093 on: May 11, 2020, 08:12:08 pm »

The head of Johnson & Johnson says they hope to have a good vaccine by the first of the year.

https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/johnson-and-johnson-aiming-for-1-billion-vaccines-in-2021/
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1094 on: May 11, 2020, 08:45:09 pm »

The head of Johnson & Johnson says they hope to have a good vaccine by the first of the year.

https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/johnson-and-johnson-aiming-for-1-billion-vaccines-in-2021/
I heard today that CHina was caught infiltrating the computer of pharmaceutical companies in America to steal vaccine secrets.  They're at it again,  They never stop.  If they succeed, then the rest of the world could be beholden to them for a cure. 

BobShaw

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1095 on: May 11, 2020, 08:47:23 pm »

Are people allowed to be quarantined who are found to be sick or possibly sick because they came in contact with a carrier?
If you contact a carrier and are not sick you get 14 days at home and they come around or check daily that you are at home.
https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-close-contacts-of-a-confirmed-case
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1096 on: May 11, 2020, 08:50:13 pm »

The head of Johnson & Johnson says they hope to have a good vaccine by the first of the year.

https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/johnson-and-johnson-aiming-for-1-billion-vaccines-in-2021/
This is not really a new statement from J&J.  The production number and clinical trial program was announced a month ago.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1097 on: May 11, 2020, 08:54:46 pm »

If you contact a carrier and are not sick you get 14 days at home and they come around or check daily that you are at home.
https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-close-contacts-of-a-confirmed-case
It says what you should do.  But are these rules mandatory and are there penalties?  We had recommendation where if you visited NYC during the previous 14 days, you ought to self-isolate to prevent disease spreading in your community.  I did isolate but I had visited NYC 13 days earlier so it was only a day.  But there were no penalties as far as I knew. 

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1098 on: May 11, 2020, 08:55:26 pm »

This is not really a new statement from J&J.  The production number and clinical trial program was announced a month ago.
Can it be proven as efficacious by the first of the year so people can start getting it?

BobShaw

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1099 on: May 11, 2020, 09:26:49 pm »

It says what you should do.  But are these rules mandatory and are there penalties? 
In Australia yes and yes. They check you are there daily and if not $1000 first offence.
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