COVID-19 updates

[John Camp]

It will be good if this does work as it is very easy to manufacture in bulk.  It's an oral drug but apparently is not active in the airway as per one published paper that looked at it versus influenza.  We'll have to see what the clinical data looks like.  There is an article in today's NY Times about how academic researchers have scaled up testing in looking at targets.\:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/science/coronavirus-treatment.html   What was most interesting to me is the interaction between these viruses and over 400 proteins in the cell it hijacks.  This could mean that there are many possible targets for drug discovery.

I saw that yesterday (published online) and several more like it. I find it interesting that companies and researchers are sticking to protocols despite the urgency of the problem -- that they have a possible drug that could be effective but they still go through these bureaucratic forms of testing and approval. The testing I see, both for efficacy and safety, but I would think that in the current case, if they see some efficacy and no major red flags regarding safety, they would begin immediate bulk manufacturing and the bureaucratic approvals would be short-circuited to get it out there. In the case of Washington state, there were a couple of weeks of back-and-forth on who had the right to test and who had the power to approve testing before people were allowed to test, even though the tests were obviously working. That was ridiculous.

Among other things I think Congress needs to do, is some kind of protection against lawsuits for pharmaceutical companies who do abbreviated trials of Covus-19 treatments, especially those aimed at critical cases. If somebody is 95% likely to die, I don't think we need a drug that has been proven to be 100% safe. 

[Paulo Bizarro]

Like I said, I dont see the point to it to a full shut down for 45 days or more.  Two to three weeks to help flatten the curve, then take measures to protect older people, and let others get back to their lives. 

I am being realistic here.  People are going to boil over and start doing this regardless.  Plus we need to develop an heard immunity to this, or it wont matter anyway.  We'll just come out and it will start up again. 

In Philadelphia, the courts have nearly completely shut down and all bail hearings have stopped.  To help keep the jails from overflowing, the police department yesterday announced they will no longer be making arrests for anything but major felonies.  If this is the case, how will they enforce a curfew or anything else.  Are they actually going to arrest someone for breaking a curfew but not for robbing his neighbor?  It just wont happen.  Politically it is a total non-starter. 

We are not China; the military is not going to descend into every town.  Even if this was an option, we are too large a country and our military is far too small to do so.

2 or 3 weeks will not flatten the curve.

[Alan Klein]

I'm not sure that the administration and president know more than some of the posters on this forum.
At the current rate of 12,500 new infections and 600 deaths per day, by end of the week we'll have globally 250,000 infections and 10,000 deaths.

Les, 10,000 dead is a lot, and especially if your know one of them.  But from a statistical point of view, by comparison, 500,000 people died from the regular flu in the world last year.  The current situation seems to have settle down in Korea and China, I believe.  Let's hope this thing burns out quickly.

[Alan Klein]

Just spoke with a friend from Florida.
Apparently, in Broward County they banned now also people from walking on the beach. I'd agree with banning all men wearing those silly 2 1/2 ft long swimming trunks, but how would a shapely woman in bikini infect anybody from a 6 ft distance?

Well, it would help me.  My wife told me that she'd hand me my head if I got within 5 feet of a girl in a bikini.

[Alan Klein]

Just spoke with a friend from Florida.
Apparently, in Broward County they banned now also people from walking on the beach. I'd agree with banning all men wearing those silly 2 1/2 ft long swimming trunks, but how would a shapely woman in bikini infect anybody from a 6 ft distance?

Well, it would help me.  My wife told me that she'd hand me my head if I got within 5 feet of a girl in a bikini.

My golf club has announced that we will no longer allow guests, and that members will not allowed to ride in the same cart unless they're domestic partners. Of all the sports I can think of, golf and swimming seem likely to be the safest. No spectators, no contact necessary. Probably stay away from wrestling.

Landscape photography in the woods by yourself.

[armand]

And there you go again with the political comments you say you dislike.  You got called on this by others but you still can’t see what you are doing.  You got “ dragged” into this by yourself and your own comments.  Deal with it.

Ok, anything that says something about Trump and administration response to covid is political comment, got it.
Just keep the replies strictly on how the administration dealt/deals with Covid.

In interest of disclosure, and maybe I should have done it sooner, I work as a critical care physician in tertiary hospital with 30+ ICU beds so I'll see a lot of this.
When I say the response had been poor and is far behind I base it on real stuff, not what is said on TV. And I know other hospitals are in a similar situation.

Just this morning the administration told us we are running out of protective equipment and alluded we should take one for the team. Let that sink in for a moment and tell me later how fun is that.

The testing still takes now than 3 days before it comes back, we have no idea if we or others have been exposed. The logistics are a nightmare and it's difficult to keep the medical personal and other patients from getting infected.

[Craig Lamson]

There are some who will find it unpleasant, most wont care.  I keep my cards pretty close to the chest and would not discuss with them how or when I made the images unless they were complicate in hiring me. 

Plus I edit people out of images all of the time by just taking several dozen shots within a 5 minute time period.  Who's to say how I edited them out. 

Like I added to my above post, if people can and now being encouraged to order take out, I shooting exteriors is no big deal.  I don't come in contact with people when doing so, especially if I light up a Churchill to keep people away.  When you order take out, how many people do you come in contact with? 

Edit, there is a large difference between making your own food and paying someone to do it for you.  Yesterday I made a new 6 pound wheel of Gouda, which albeit will take 6 months to be ready, a few loaves of bread, a bunch a vegetables, etc.  Today I have 3 gallons of beef stew stewing and rendering out tallow from the fat I cut away.  I'm doing my part. 

To be honest, I think you are over reacting.  For someone in your age group, sure, I can understand isolating yourself from the world for a few months.  For everyone else, it will just delay the enviable.  As I said before, should we just lock ourselves up for three months only to come out and start it all over again, or should we try to build a heard immunity?  I vote for the latter. 

Even my own mother yesterday, when speaking about my sister's children, told me there is no way she is not seeing her grandchildren.  My brother is like you, wants her to stay locked up indefinitely.  I can see the concern and err on the side of caution, but she just does not care. 

"Death smiles at us all, all a man can do is smile back."

This is an interesting read, I can't vouch for the accuracy of the summary but you can decide if its valid.

For me it comes down to this...How many people do you think is ok if they die from this.?

https://imgur.com/gallery/HAHU4vg

[armand]

This is an interesting read, I can't vouch for the accuracy of the summary but you can decide if its valid.

For me it comes down to this...How many people do you think is ok if they die from this.?

https://imgur.com/gallery/HAHU4vg

Thank you for this. If we can keep like this I'm all good.

[Craig Lamson]

Ok, anything that says something about Trump and administration response to covid is political comment, got it.
Just keep the replies strictly on how the administration dealt/deals with Covid.

In interest of disclosure, and maybe I should have done it sooner, I work as a critical care physician in tertiary hospital with 30+ ICU beds so I'll see a lot of this.
When I say the response had been poor and is far behind I base it on real stuff, not what is said on TV. And I know other hospitals are in a similar situation.

Just this morning the administration told us we are running out of protective equipment and alluded we should take one for the team. Let that sink in for a moment and tell me later how fun is that.

The testing still takes now than 3 days before it comes back, we have no idea if we or others have been exposed. The logistics are a nightmare and it's difficult to keep the medical personal and other patients from getting infected.

No one is dismissing your service, and thank you for it.  I don't think Trump has been perfect, but I also don't think anyone in his position would be.  You seem to think otherwise even though you have no real clue what is going on inside the power structure and what roadblocks are/were in place.  I don't either.  Instead you continue to take cheap shots.  So be it, thats your choice. 

This thing is a mess and you are dealing with the front lines.  Thanks.

[Alan Klein]

The civic duty in Japan and South Korea is likely far higher than US, and most countries for that matter.


Yep. The initial response looks alarmist and but in retrospect it was not enough.

We haven't gotten to the point of doing retrospection. 

[chez]

Les, 10,000 dead is a lot, and especially if your know one of them.  But from a statistical point of view, by comparison, 500,000 people died from the regular flu in the world last year.  The current situation seems to have settle down in Korea and China, I believe.  Let's hope this thing burns out quickly.

But the reason things seem to have slowed down in China and South Korea is because of the measures they took to flatten the curve...which so many here seem to be bitching about. If China and South Korea just went about their normal daily business, I think we'd all be seeing a much different picture. Now look at Italy which delayed doing what China and South Korea did and we are seeing the results. Now they are in panic mode and under a much tighter lock down than anything we have in North America.

[BJL]

I am very much for keeping big, uncrowded parks and beaches open; for one thing, as a preventive for cabin fever which should help compliance with other restrictions. But using club houses and changing rooms seem at odds with “distancing” and with the new US rules on gatherings of more than 10. Our county parks are all open but with all events cancelled, which seems a good balance.

[armand]

They are not intended as cheap shots despite what you think, I'm frustrated beyond belief how fucked up this is.
At least some of those road blocks are self made: when you say that you expect this to be better soon and is almost contained when everybody with a medical degree/epidemiologist knows it's not true, you are just calling it on yourself.
But this is for the history to decide, it's too late to finger the blame. As I said, regardless of what mistakes were made or not, we are in this together and we need to work together.

[JoeKitchen]

This is an interesting read, I can't vouch for the accuracy of the summary but you can decide if its valid.

For me it comes down to this...How many people do you think is ok if they die from this.?

https://imgur.com/gallery/HAHU4vg

Well that's complicated and it is not like I can really put a number on it, which you obviously knew when you penned that question. 

We cant prevent everyone from dying from it, so some death is inevitable, just like with everything else.  Putting in draconian measures aimed to prevent all loss of life while at the same time destroying people's lives economically is unacceptable in my opinion. 

Like I said, I'll deal with limited outside activities, but my support of this drops like a boulder off a cliff if you start threatening my shelter, my house.  Likewise, I will not support absurd measures such as restricting hikes outside.  The beach thing posted yesterday, after thinking about it, was more likely in response to spring breakers, who will party in close contact with each other.  However, not allowing walking alone or with your spouse on a beach is absurd.  I don't live near a beach, but if the city suddenly does not want to allow hiking in Wissahicken Park, a 23 mile long 2000+ acre property almost entirely forest, I'll be down there the day the measure is in place. 

We are obviously not going the way of Italy, which did nothing at first and continued to import cheap workers from China to Milan after the outbreak was obvious.  We closed off travel rather fast, so I feel we have already flattened the curve a good deal. 

But at the same time, Italy has had enough exposure to develop heard immunity, as had Wuhan.  Perhaps one of the reasons Wuhan is getting back to normal is because their immunity has stopped it from spreading.  If we dont develop this here, this may not be the case. 

[armand]

We haven't gotten to the point of doing retrospection.

Yes, unfortunately we are far from that point.
Historically this is how the responses have been evaluated. Time will tell although I'm quite positive this time won't be any different.

[Alan Klein]

Yes, I guess it depends on your background too and which source your more comfortable this. I think you have a background in basic sciences and I see why this would be your best source. I have a medical background and gravitate towards the more clinical articles.
Good to have both in this times although information overload is a danger and there is a current rush of so so quality data.

Everybody is in overdrive reading and searching now trying to figure it out how to best approach this. We are awfully unprepared despite having so much warning time. In the hospital where I work we are already in protective equipment sparring mode despite the fact we have yet to get the first confirmed case. It's just a matter of time, the confirmed cases are getting closer and closer and with a 3+ days to get the test results back we might already have some.

Can you tell us where you live, or within 100 miles?

[MattBurt]

Like I said, I dont see the point to it to a full shut down for 45 days or more.  Two to three weeks to help flatten the curve, then take measures to protect older people, and let others get back to their lives. 

Are you an epidemiologist? If not, what makes you think you know better than people who dedicate their lives to studying these things?

This is why we have experts. Epidemiologists are our best resource for guidance. Definitely not politicians who are not listening to epidemiologists.
It sucks for sure but it will suck more if we don't take their advice.

[JoeKitchen]

Are you an epidemiologist? If not, what makes you think you know better than people who dedicate their lives to studying these things?

This is why we have experts. Epidemiologists are our best resource for guidance. Definitely not politicians who are not listening to epidemiologists.
It sucks for sure but it will suck more if we don't take their advice.

Matt, I am speaking from the standpoint of the American mindset.  We just dont care for government telling us what to do.  It is our very nature, end of story, good or bad. 

Do you really think that you can put every expert in the world on TV telling us we need to stay inside indefinite and Americans will actually care.  I got news for you, unless death visits us perceptively, it's going to break. 

I am just being a realist here.  There needs to be plans in place when the damn opens and people start going back outside regardless if big brother wants us to or not. 

[KLaban]

Well that's complicated and it is not like I can really put a number on it, which you obviously knew when you penned that question. 

We cant prevent everyone from dying from it, so some death is inevitable, just like with everything else.  Putting in draconian measures aimed to prevent all loss of life while at the same time destroying people's lives economically is unacceptable in my opinion. 

Like I said, I'll deal with limited outside activities, but my support of this drops like a boulder off a cliff if you start threatening my shelter, my house.  Likewise, I will not support absurd measures such as restricting hikes outside.  The beach thing posted yesterday, after thinking about it, was more likely in response to spring breakers, who will party in close contact with each other.  However, not allowing walking alone or with your spouse on a beach is absurd.  I don't live near a beach, but if the city suddenly does not want to allow hiking in Wissahicken Park, a 23 mile long 2000+ acre property almost entirely forest, I'll be down there the day the measure is in place. 

We are obviously not going the way of Italy, which did nothing at first and continued to import cheap workers from China to Milan after the outbreak was obvious.  We closed off travel rather fast, so I feel we have already flattened the curve a good deal. 

But at the same time, Italy has had enough exposure to develop heard immunity, as had Wuhan.  Perhaps one of the reasons Wuhan is getting back to normal is because their immunity has stopped it from spreading.  If we dont develop this here, this may not be the case.

I'll say it once again, the economy will eventually recover, dead people won't get the chance.

[chez]

We are obviously not going the way of Italy, which did nothing at first and continued to import cheap workers from China to Milan after the outbreak was obvious.  We closed off travel rather fast, so I feel we have already flattened the curve a good deal. 

Just a hunch on your part regarding we already flattened the curve. Any real data. Right now we just don't have enough testing to really know. Looking at the detection and death rates...we are accelerating.