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Author Topic: COVID-19 updates  (Read 81949 times)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1380 on: March 27, 2020, 08:36:54 am »

Well - as I said a few days ago - let's wait and see.

Correct. It's too soon to declare anything with certainty at this stage, including going back to business as usual by Easter (which BTW almost certainly is a bad plan). We learn more as we go, and it's better to travel the safer route because there's no turning back after taking the wrong turn.

As I said earlier, in my country this is a decisive week. Will we be able and avoid ICU capacity and personnel overload? If we do, then we can start planning on when and how to slowely relax the Social Distancing regime. Changes will take some 10-14 days to have an effect on ICU needs. So what we're currently witnessing, a slow down of the speed of newly recorded infections due to actions from 2 weeks ago, can be turned into a manageable growth rate. A decline will not occur for months, because for that something like 60% of the population needs to have developed antibodies (either from recovery, or in a year's time from a vaccine).
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William Walker

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1381 on: March 27, 2020, 08:48:51 am »

This is the USA I imagined: Lt. Gen. Todd Semonite.

https://youtu.be/xCsidYDqWo0
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Craig Lamson

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1382 on: March 27, 2020, 09:41:56 am »

Can you get your 107 license completely online, or do you have to go somewhere to get tested?

(Sorry for stepping off topic for a moment.)

You need to take the test at an FAA designated testing center.  I went to a local university where they had a testing center. No watches keys etc allowed.  They made me turn my pockets inside out and checked my socks.  They give you an FAA booklet with charts etc you will need to answer questions, a calculator and a piece of paper and a pencil.  The test was computer based, and each testing station was video monitored   60 questions, randomized so no test is the same.  They give you two hours.  After the test they take all the materials back and you can’t even know exactly what questions you missed.  You need to get a 70 to pass

It took me about 25 mins to take the test which was pretty much the average of all the practice tests I took.  My score was basically what the averages of my practice test.  I went back and started the test over again and I changed a few answers.  I’ll bet dollars to donuts I had them right the first time 😁. The test is multiple choice, and the FAA has some tricky answers.  In some cases there are two right answers but one is “more right” and wording on some is intentionally confusing.  The prep course warned about this and in at least one example used but the prep course was on the test.

All told I spent 250 on the course and the test was 160.  You can find cheaper prep courses.  All of them look pretty similar.  I can’t really tell you why I chose this one but I read tons of reviews etc and then threw a dart.  Don’t worry about being off topic, we have beaten the covid 19 thing to death, and I’m even trying to stay away from the news for awhile.

All in all I enjoyed the process.  Being 67 and not having studied and tested for many decades made me leery but it was fun, I enjoyed learning about the aviation system and it felt good to pass.

Drone Pilot Ground School
https://www.dronepilotgroundschool.com/enroll/?msclkid=65f5cbdffdd51bfdfe0495a1fd070ac4&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=**LP%20-%20NonTM%20-%20General&utm_term=%2BDrone%20%2BGround%20%2BSchool&utm_content=Drone%20Ground%20School


Some challenging test questions

https://www.dronepilotgroundschool.com/missed-part-107-test-prep-questions/




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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1383 on: March 27, 2020, 09:49:57 am »

Alan - I'm no economist, but I find it hard to believe that the US will not weather this storm.  This is the mighty USA, the richest nation on earth, the nation that built an enormous military machine to defeat the Nazis and Japanese in the 1940's, the nation that ran a hugely expensive Apollo programme to put men on the moon, that invested 10 years, untold billions of dollars and tens of thousands of lives into a (failed) military adventure in Vietnam.  Then after the 9/11 attack which killed thousands of citizens, spent billions more dollars and thousands of lives battling terrorist supporters in the Middle East. 

Money always somehow seems to be found to fight wars or prepare for the next one.  Pandemics are just as dangerous as war - why do you not spend money building things that will better lives instead of taking them.  The US is not alone in this of course.

In spite of your current president and all the negative, greedy, selfish people we hear about - most US citizens must be better than that.  This episode will pass, the vast majority will survive, and in spite of a temporary hit to the economy - life will carry on.

I wish you well.

Jim
America use to be the richest creditor nation in the world.  We produced something like 25% of the world's goods and services.  Now we are the largest debtor nation in the world. There have been other great nations that have spent themselves into oblivion. 

Hopefully, you're right and we're going to weather this storm.  But the carnage is going to be great I'm afraid.   We're already almost at the percentage debt we were at during WWII.  With the amount they want to spend now we're going to exceed that by a lot especially since the economy will shrink during the upcoming recession.  Also, remember when America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.   We're all tied together especially more so today then ever before. So you're country is going to suffer regardless of measures you take independently.  How long do you think your country can handle an economic shutdown?  How would you pay your bills, feed your family, heat your home, pay for doctors (through taxes)?

My government isn't finding money.  They can't raise taxes.  They're printing it.  Currency isn't wealth.  It's paper.  And it's no longer backed by gold or silver.  If money was wealth, why not print $10 trillion instead of $2T or $6T and make everyone rich?  All that does is inflate the currency making it less valuable, less able to buy things as the cost of everything goes up.  There's no such thing as a free lunch.

Now, I'm not saying that the government shouldn't help.  But they're going overboard.  They should help individuals out and that's pretty much it.  But this is going to be a bailout of corporations mainly just like in 2008.  $4 trillion (separate from the $2 trillion) is being given to the US Treasury to pass through the Fed to banks for money to large corporations.  While individuals will be looking at a couple of thousand for themselves, the bulk will be going to the wealthy.  Again.  This will all be paid for by the middle class and retired, the people less able to afford it.  Both parties now believe in socialism.  Republicans have forgotten their roots of fiscal responsibility.  Having stupidly gone off the gold standard years ago, both parties now believe in printing money to make up any shortfalls, just like the Weimar Republic after WWI which led to the rise of the Nazis.  We're playing with fire.  What happens next will make the virus a side show.  No one's going to remember the few thousand that died when they can't pay their rent and they're out on the street wondering where there next meal is coming from.  We're all going to have to find the spirit and hope and faith that we're all going to be OK. I certainly hope so. 

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1384 on: March 27, 2020, 10:01:27 am »

Correct. It's too soon to declare anything with certainty at this stage, including going back to business as usual by Easter (which BTW almost certainly is a bad plan). We learn more as we go, and it's better to travel the safer route because there's no turning back after taking the wrong turn.

As I said earlier, in my country this is a decisive week. Will we be able and avoid ICU capacity and personnel overload? If we do, then we can start planning on when and how to slowely relax the Social Distancing regime. Changes will take some 10-14 days to have an effect on ICU needs. So what we're currently witnessing, a slow down of the speed of newly recorded infections due to actions from 2 weeks ago, can be turned into a manageable growth rate. A decline will not occur for months, because for that something like 60% of the population needs to have developed antibodies (either from recovery, or in a year's time from a vaccine).
Trump is suggesting the same thing in our country as you are for your country.  A phased plan to get back to normal times. 

PeterAit

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1385 on: March 27, 2020, 12:22:10 pm »

Trump is suggesting the same thing in our country as you are for your country.  A phased plan to get back to normal times.

But the virus does not follow Trump's plan. Infection rates may start going down tomorrow or not until May (or later). We can't know. Trump cannot be held responsible for the virus, but he can be held responsible for our refusal of test kits from WHO. Earlier testing of more people could have made a big difference. Why he refused these is a mystery to me.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1386 on: March 27, 2020, 12:50:52 pm »

But the virus does not follow Trump's plan. Infection rates may start going down tomorrow or not until May (or later). We can't know. Trump cannot be held responsible for the virus, but he can be held responsible for our refusal of test kits from WHO. Earlier testing of more people could have made a big difference. Why he refused these is a mystery to me.

Spreading more left wing lies Peter? 

No, we did not refuse test kits from WHO, because they never offered them to us.  The provisions and supplies that WHO gives out are directly allocated towards third world and impoverished countries only.  The idea that WHO would offer there limited provisions to the richest country in the world, who can handle the cost of this free of charge, is bonk. 

Additionally, the idea that it would be a looked at as a positive if they did offer and we accepted, thus costing an impoverished country to not receive them, is also bonk.  The media would have ripped Trump up and down over taking resources from a poorer country, as they should. 

What actually happened was that the idea was floated that we could order and pay for testing kits from WHO, whom would have had to then manufacture them before shipping them to us.  They would not have given us their current stock.  As such, the administration felt it would be easier and more efficient to produce them ourselves, which is certainly the case. 

Just to reiterate, WHO never offered the USA any test kits.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1387 on: March 27, 2020, 01:06:19 pm »

This is an interesting extended TED interview with Adam Kucharski, an infectious disease researcher specializing in mathematical models, https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_interview_adam_kucharski_on_what_should_and_shouldn_t_worry_us_about_the_coronavirus?language=en. It is dated March 12 so the data he mentions is not up to the minute. The podcast is about an hour long. The discussion is wide-ranging and not limited to mathematical models and is not overly technical.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1388 on: March 27, 2020, 01:40:41 pm »

This is an interesting extended TED interview with Adam Kucharski, an infectious disease researcher specializing in mathematical models, https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_interview_adam_kucharski_on_what_should_and_shouldn_t_worry_us_about_the_coronavirus?language=en. It is dated March 12 so the data he mentions is not up to the minute. The podcast is about an hour long. The discussion is wide-ranging and not limited to mathematical models and is not overly technical.

Could you sum it up?

Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1389 on: March 27, 2020, 02:50:57 pm »

Could you sum it up?

No. It's an hour long discussion of several ideas used in modelling and other things besides. There is no one sentence or even a one paragraph summary, none that I could write. If you don't want to listen to the podcast, the best I can suggest is to google the guy's name, maybe there is some online written info about his work.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1390 on: March 27, 2020, 03:13:36 pm »

Bad news from China.  Is this precautionary or are there more domestic cases they're not reporting?  Is there a "second wave"?
China Moves to Re-Shutter All Cinemas Nationwide

https://variety.com/2020/biz/entertainment-industry/china-moves-to-re-shutter-all-cinemas-nationwide-1203546923/

JoeKitchen

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1391 on: March 27, 2020, 03:29:07 pm »

Bad news from China.  Is this precautionary or are there more domestic cases they're not reporting?  Is there a "second wave"?
China Moves to Re-Shutter All Cinemas Nationwide

https://variety.com/2020/biz/entertainment-industry/china-moves-to-re-shutter-all-cinemas-nationwide-1203546923/

The day after the kicked out all foreign journalists, they started doing this. 

I am guessing that are lying about very few new cases. 
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1392 on: March 27, 2020, 03:33:12 pm »

Bad news from China.  Is this precautionary or are there more domestic cases they're not reporting?  Is there a "second wave"?
China Moves to Re-Shutter All Cinemas Nationwide

https://variety.com/2020/biz/entertainment-industry/china-moves-to-re-shutter-all-cinemas-nationwide-1203546923/

The way the first paragraph is phrased makes it sound like the municipalities might have been premature in re-opening the cinemas and a higher authority overrode them. You probably have to keep the infection low for a while before assuming it's ok to relax, otherwise you could end up restarting the contagion. I'm just speculating.
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D Fuller

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1393 on: March 27, 2020, 06:06:30 pm »

You need to take the test at an FAA designated testing center.  I went to a local university where they had a testing center. No watches keys etc allowed.  They made me turn my pockets inside out and checked my socks.  They give you an FAA booklet with charts etc you will need to answer questions, a calculator and a piece of paper and a pencil.  The test was computer based, and each testing station was video monitored   60 questions, randomized so no test is the same.  They give you two hours.  After the test they take all the materials back and you can’t even know exactly what questions you missed.  You need to get a 70 to pass

It took me about 25 mins to take the test which was pretty much the average of all the practice tests I took.  My score was basically what the averages of my practice test.  I went back and started the test over again and I changed a few answers.  I’ll bet dollars to donuts I had them right the first time 😁. The test is multiple choice, and the FAA has some tricky answers.  In some cases there are two right answers but one is “more right” and wording on some is intentionally confusing.  The prep course warned about this and in at least one example used but the prep course was on the test.

All told I spent 250 on the course and the test was 160.  You can find cheaper prep courses.  All of them look pretty similar.  I can’t really tell you why I chose this one but I read tons of reviews etc and then threw a dart.  Don’t worry about being off topic, we have beaten the covid 19 thing to death, and I’m even trying to stay away from the news for awhile.

All in all I enjoyed the process.  Being 67 and not having studied and tested for many decades made me leery but it was fun, I enjoyed learning about the aviation system and it felt good to pass.

Drone Pilot Ground School
https://www.dronepilotgroundschool.com/enroll/?msclkid=65f5cbdffdd51bfdfe0495a1fd070ac4&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=**LP%20-%20NonTM%20-%20General&utm_term=%2BDrone%20%2BGround%20%2BSchool&utm_content=Drone%20Ground%20School


Some challenging test questions

https://www.dronepilotgroundschool.com/missed-part-107-test-prep-questions/

Thank you Craig. This is just the kind of info I was hoping for. Guess I'll study now and take te test once tings open up again.
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Craig Lamson

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1394 on: March 27, 2020, 06:37:02 pm »

Thank you Craig. This is just the kind of info I was hoping for. Guess I'll study now and take te test once tings open up again.

That sounds like a great plan. Best of luck!
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James Clark

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1395 on: March 27, 2020, 09:17:13 pm »

Thank you Craig. This is just the kind of info I was hoping for. Guess I'll study now and take te test once tings open up again.

Seconded - Appreciate the time you took to answer these questions on the subject!
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armand

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1396 on: March 28, 2020, 12:12:02 pm »

Craig Lamson

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1397 on: March 28, 2020, 12:19:25 pm »

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-gretchen-whitmer-michigan-coronavirus-feud_n_5e7e962dc5b661492267b21b?fbclid=IwAR1BANsuH9_dzfRx0mIxaGlI8orZb31Er_6zIyM4zUxeWrgOA-0M7eXF3Uc

If this is confirmed Trumps needs to go, this would be one of the most asinine action that I've seen in a long time.

Dream on TDS'er...

For days now the complaints were that the feds were not having supplies shipped to them first then sent to the states and thathe states were bidding against the feds.  So not the Feds are making the orders and an havis supplies shipped to them first, before sending them to the states.  So now we have States, at least Michigan complaning the Feds are getting them first.

Its lose loss no matter what Trump does when it comes to those with TDS.


« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 12:26:34 pm by Craig Lamson »
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Craig Lamson

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1398 on: March 28, 2020, 12:38:14 pm »

Why the Strategic National Stockpile isn't meant to solve a crisis like coronavirus

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/why-strategic-national-stockpile-isn-t-meant-solve-crisis-coronavirus-n1170376
But the U.S. strategic stockpile isn't intended to be the solution to a crisis. It's designed to be used as a stopgap during emergencies. The stockpile has limited resources, government officials and public health experts say, which weren't at full capacity even before the coronavirus was on the horizon.

"The Strategic National Stockpile is not designed to be the sole solution to these problems," said Greg Burel, who directed the stockpile program for more than 12 years until his long-planned retirement in January. He said the shortages of personal protective equipment across the country — and the fact that states already need items from the stockpile — illustrate a systemwide failure in American health care.

Yep, its Trumps fault...
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JoeKitchen

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #1399 on: March 28, 2020, 01:06:42 pm »

Well, this is not good. 

First known cat infected with coronavirus reported in Belgium

Did not think this would be spreadable to animals. 
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