COVID-19 updates

[chez]

I'm not doubting your point.  The questions are how long do we have to shut down society and is the time frame realistic and acceptable?

I'll throw it back to you. How many lives are we willing to sacrifice in order to get the stock market back on track? How many lives is worth getting basketball back playing. How many lives is it worth being able to have a nice dinner out and a movie?

[Alan Klein]

I'll throw it back to you. How many lives are we willing to sacrifice in order to get the stock market back on track? How many lives is worth getting basketball back playing. How many lives is it worth being able to have a nice dinner out and a movie?

I agree we can forego basketball games.  Heck, I don;t watch them anyway.,  But my point is other real-world survival stuff.  I just cancelled an appointment with my endocrinologist which I had set-up because I'm a diabetic.  How long should I forego that checkup?  I've got four steaks left in the freezer?  What do I do when I run out?  Pull out my Second Amendment gun and start shooting birds flying by?  What about the popcorn seller at the basketball game who has lost income to feed his family?  What's he suppose to do?  Of course we can all sacrifice.  My wife and I are retired.  So we can stay at home and relax.  But how far and how long before it becomes intolerable for others and they say screw-it?  They'll take their chances?

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

“Flattening the curve” = prolonging the misery.

Let it run its course, be done with it, and move on. 

[chez]

I agree we can forego basketball games.  Heck, I don;t watch them anyway.,  But my point is other real-world survival stuff.  I just cancelled an appointment with my endocrinologist which I had set-up because I'm a diabetic.  How long should I forego that checkup?  I've got four steaks left in the freezer?  What do I do when I run out?  Pull out my Second Amendment gun and start shooting birds flying by?  What about the popcorn seller at the basketball game who has lost income to feed his family?  What's he suppose to do?  Of course we can all sacrifice.  My wife and I are retired.  So we can stay at home and relax.  But how far and how long before it becomes intolerable for others and they say screw-it?  They'll take their chances?

Common sense dictates here. If you need food, medication etc...go out and get it. Just don't get close to anyone and wash hands when you return. Heck...I just got back from walking my dog along a beach which had maybe 6 other people. No one got close to anyone.

[Alan Klein]

“Flattening the curve” = prolonging the misery.

Let it run its course, be done with it, and move on. 

Your advice will be accepted next year, if it comes back.  Right now people are too scared.

[chez]

“Flattening the curve” = prolonging the misery.

Let it run its course, be done with it, and move on.

No...it's reducing the misery.

[Alan Klein]

Common sense dictates here. If you need food, medication etc...go out and get it. Just don't get close to anyone and wash hands when you return. Heck...I just got back from walking my dog along a beach which had maybe 6 other people. No one got close to anyone.

Walking on the beach with your dog is not the same as going to a doctor's office for a checkup, or going to the supermarket to go shopping.  How do you get close to anyone at Disneyland when its shut down and all the employees are out of work eating beans at home because that's all they can afford?

[Alan Klein]

No...it's reducing the misery.

Extending the curve doesn;t change much.  If everyone that's going to get sick gets sick anyway, just over a longer period, deaths will remain pretty much the same.  The misery from being isolated and not working is spread out.  Pay now or pay later.  But you're going to pay.  Maybe more.

[chez]

Walking on the beach with your dog is not the same as going to a doctor's office for a checkup, or going to the supermarket to go shopping.  How do you get close to anyone at Disneyland when its shut down and all the employees are out of work eating beans at home because that's all they can afford?

Don't know what your supermarket is like, but I can go to mine at 8:00am and it's almost totally vacant...or after 9:00pm. Again use common sense.

As far as seeing your doctor, phone him/her to see what they suggest.

You can view things as extreme cases and run around like a chicken without a head, or just use common sense.

[chez]

Extending the curve doesn;t change much.  If everyone that's going to get sick gets sick anyway, just over a longer period, deaths will remain pretty much the same.  The misery from being isolated and not working is spread out.  Pay now or pay later.  But you're going to pay.  Maybe more.

You are totally wrong if you think deaths will remain the same. Right now in Italy they don't have enough equipment to handle all the critical cases so they are deciding who gets the help and who dies. If the critical cases arrived at an extended timeframe, there would be equipment available for them and they would have a better chance of living.

And I'm sorry but I don't equate dying as the same as being without income for a few weeks...especially when billions has been promised to ensure people that need food will get food. I think you'd view this the same way if you would be one of those that required critical care but was chosen to just slowly die because of the lack of equipment and personnel.

[DP]

What did the Chinese do?

they don't have any stinking democracy - that's what they do

[faberryman]

David Nunes suggested on Fox News this morning that you not panic and that you just take the family out to eat.

[Jeremy Roussak]

His other joke about  Philly was when he said his epitaph should read, "I'd Rather Be Here than in Philadelphia."

Actually, it was "On the whole, I'd rather be in Philadelphia". Much wittier.

Tylenol is toxic to the liver in high doses.  It's a very problematic drug.

It is toxic to the liver in substantial overdose, but paracetamol (acetaminophen) is a very safe, very widely-used and very effective analgesic, given both orally and intravenously, and has been for many decades. There's nothing remotely "problematic" about it.

“Flattening the curve” = prolonging the misery.

Not quite. The misery is prolonged, certainly, but it's also potentially lessened if the peak infection rate is kept within the capacity of the health service to address it. That's the principle the UK government is adopting.

Jeremy

[Alan Klein]

You are totally wrong if you think deaths will remain the same. Right now in Italy they don't have enough equipment to handle all the critical cases so they are deciding who gets the help and who dies. If the critical cases arrived at an extended timeframe, there would be equipment available for them and they would have a better chance of living.

And I'm sorry but I don't equate dying as the same as being without income for a few weeks...especially when billions has been promised to ensure people that need food will get food. I think you'd view this the same way if you would be one of those that required critical care but was chosen to just slowly die because of the lack of equipment and personnel.

I hope you're right. At 75 with medical issues, I'm all for getting the best care I can get.  I'm glad that it will be available by reducing the speed of the infection rate. Of course, I'm retired and could keep up with staying at home.  Well, I do that anyway.  My retirement and social security checks keep coming in the mail.   I'm just wondering how long younger people who apparently aren't getting sick as the same rate as me and my fellow old dodgers, will put up staying at home.

[Alan Klein]

Actually, it was "On the whole, I'd rather be in Philadelphia". Much wittier.

It is toxic to the liver in substantial overdose, but paracetamol (acetaminophen) is a very safe, very widely-used and very effective analgesic, given both orally and intravenously, and has been for many decades. There's nothing remotely "problematic" about it.

Not quite. The misery is prolonged, certainly, but it's also potentially lessened if the peak infection rate is kept within the capacity of the health service to address it. That's the principle the UK government is adopting.

Jeremy

Jeremy, I though Tylenol is acetaminophen.  Why is it more dangerous? 

[Alan Goldhammer]

That said i read about some Dutch scientists that say they have an antibody for the virus and i came across this article:

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/lure-german-firm-working-virus-vaccine-report-200315165703635.html
If it is true it is a bad form of America First.

A US company also has an antibody against the virus (Regeneron) and has clinical material available.  They also have the ability to manufacture this at large scale.  Today this type of work is not rocket science.

[Rob C]

The "doubling" rate for Covid-19 infection cases varies greatly from one country to another.
For example, 33 days in China, 13 days in South Korea, 7 days in Iran, 5 days in Italy, 3 days in Germany, USA, and a few other countries. 27 days globally.
Why are there such huge differences? Is the growth rate accelerating?

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Maybe more rapid reporting without govt. censorship? Bad news gets out faster.

Rob

[Alan Goldhammer]

It is toxic to the liver in substantial overdose, but paracetamol (acetaminophen) is a very safe, very widely-used and very effective analgesic, given both orally and intravenously, and has been for many decades. There's nothing remotely "problematic" about it.

It's not problematic in Europe as it is sold behind the counter.  In the US this is not the case.  In addition it is formulated into a variety of cold and flu medications.  In the US, more patients die of drug induced liver injury from acetaminophen than any other drug, Rx or OTC.  It is also commonly used in suicides with referrals to emergency rooms with acetaminophen poisoning.  Sure this should be preventable by moving it behind the counter but that's not the way it is here.

[josh.reichmann]

“Real time” data : https://coronavirus-realtime.com/?fbclid=IwAR0TDWVzV5JXWP8Fz2QxFfgUfMwwH4NqY8cOrLrIc6SOvzJMqiUJ9XR7bcw

[BJL]

“Flattening the curve” = prolonging the misery.

Let it run its course, be done with it, and move on.

Have you read none of the medical research and mathematical modeling on the benefits of flattening the curve, or are you just choosing to ignore it, perhaps deferring to some other (non-medical) authority that you trust more? Maybe you are right and the medical/epidemiology research community as a whole is wrong, but I severely doubt it.

The US has about 100,000 IC beds and 60,000 to 160,000 ventilators (depending on which ones are counted as usable [1]). Several patients can be served in rotation with one ventilator.  Data I linked to above [2] shows that it is highly likely that there will be in total far more cases needing such facilities over the next year or so: 50-fold in the case of IC cases vs IC beds.  Evidence from Italy already indicates that if handled badly leading to a short intense curve, peak demand will greatly exceed supply; and the death toll got far worse there today, so the peak is yet to come (the daily death toll is now far higher than for seasonal flu).

If for example the case load outstrips medical capacity by 10:1, potentially 90% of severe case die "avoidably" for lack of adequate treatment. spread the peak five-fold and the overload is down to 2:1, and the "avoidable" death toll during the longe, wider peak down to about 50%; spread it ten-fold, and maybe everyone who needs such care has a good chance of getting it.  And China is achieving peak reduction by large factors, as seen in sources I cite above.

Some more discussion and facts:

[1] http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/200214-VentilatorAvailability-factsheet.pdf

[2] https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[3] http://www.aast.org/GeneralInformation/mechanicalventilation.aspx (which says that about half of IC cases need ventilation, and so for COVID-19 whose main threat is respiratory it is probably over 50%)

[4] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-intensive-care-unit-shortages-of-ventilators-staff-space-2020-3

[5] https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/13/coronavirus-numbers-we-really-should-be-worried-about/