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Author Topic: Nikon imaging division in trouble  (Read 9354 times)

JaapD

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #60 on: November 26, 2019, 06:41:36 am »

As in nature in order to survive you’ll need be adaptive to change. This is what Nikon is going through. Revenue dropping through the roof is one of the side effects to achieve this.

Personally I don’t give a bleep what size the company will be next couple of years compared to its heydays, as long as the new company structure will be financially ‘in balance’. I have no doubts Nikon is going to realize this, not in the last place because Nikon is active in other business segments as well.


Regards,
Jaap.
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chez

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #61 on: November 26, 2019, 09:10:31 am »

As in nature in order to survive you’ll need be adaptive to change. This is what Nikon is going through. Revenue dropping through the roof is one of the side effects to achieve this.

Personally I don’t give a bleep what size the company will be next couple of years compared to its heydays, as long as the new company structure will be financially ‘in balance’. I have no doubts Nikon is going to realize this, not in the last place because Nikon is active in other business segments as well.


Regards,
Jaap.

That's all and good but if Nikon tends toward a niche market...expect Leica prices in order to survive. Those prices might be fine with you...but I'd venture it will be a problem with many others.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #62 on: November 26, 2019, 10:30:22 am »

That's all and good but if Nikon tends toward a niche market...expect Leica prices in order to survive. Those prices might be fine with you...but I'd venture it will be a problem with many others.

There is a whole spectrum of options between their current condition, becoming a new Leica and going bankrupt.

Being a Nikon hater you like to focus on those options that paint the future Nikon in a bad light.

What’s in it besides a waste of time?

Cheers,
Bernard

chez

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #63 on: November 26, 2019, 11:04:52 am »

There is a whole spectrum of options between their current condition, becoming a new Leica and going bankrupt.

Being a Nikon hater you like to focus on those options that paint the future Nikon in a bad light.

What’s in it besides a waste of time?

Cheers,
Bernard

Bernard, I'm not a Nikn hater...just a realist that removes my rose coloured glasses when viewing things. You on the other hand is a Nikon fanboi which I guess get your kicks out of cheerleading.

I provide an alternate view to your "everything Nikon touches is golden"...best in class. Otherwise we can just all get in a circle and hold hands singing kumbaya when Nikon is discussed.
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Rob C

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #64 on: November 26, 2019, 11:38:45 am »

It's not only slow AF with adapters...but they typically are limited to the centre part of the image for AF...which really limits their usefulness. Back to the focus and recompose days of 10 years ago.

And the minute you recompose you have lost yourself that great original focus, because the lens tries to retain a flat field, and when you put the focussed point somewhere else in the viewfinder by swinging the camera around its vertical axis to point somewhere else, you have changed the plane on which focus was originally made. Your original point of focus will always be nearer, i.e. on a closer flat plane now at an angle to the original plane.

You can only keep roughly the same focus plane (that still includes your original subject), if you shift the lens sideways on a stationary camera to put the subject into its new position, because once the camera itself is swung fom a central point to a different angle, you have changed the planes upon which the lens has been focussed, rendering all those wonderful focussing aids irrelevant.

You need a front with movements in order to retain the same plane of focus if you twist the camera from is original position. Real life sometimes sucks.

;-)

Rob

Rob C

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #65 on: November 26, 2019, 12:53:04 pm »

I can see that iPhones will become the generally accepted face of photography.

Back in the 50s when I was starting to burn up with photo lust, the way to learn, if you didn't have a rich friend with a darkroom, was via the magazines that ran series of how-to articles; that kept them selling and you learning. The same publications ran camera and lens reviews, and so you were exposed to both sides of the game in a single publication, and the camera ads were all there in great numbers.

As the mags died, and I suppose they died because the readers drifted away into other things, or had reached the top level of what the mags could teach via reading, camera and lens manufacturers became less willing to buy advertising space at the very same time as other forms of amusement came along, the net interest in photography falling to a level that could not sustain the camera people as before. New blood is essential for sustaining readership or camera sales, and as competition increases for available time and people, numbers fall and critical mass with them. Digital did throw in a golden period of growth, but it is now facing the same problems as film: interest is shifting elsewhere: to cellphones with lenses.

When you realise that that's where many people's image aspirations rest, it's not surprising traditional camera styles are in decline. A part of the problem is that the places where people want to view their snaps have changed, too, and an iPad is a great way of looking at them. Advertising seems to agree with that too, and print may end up as a rarity, which if that comes to pass, will reduce the quality that cameras need to provide. I have abandoned printing completely simply because it costs more than it's worth to me. Is that position so rare? I don't think so. Once you have a few boxes of wonderful prints, why will you keep building up more to no clear purpose? When you know you can do it, there seems little point in proving that to yourself all the time.

Do younger folks really want to look at their pix on tv sets? Do they look at a tv in the first place?

Long ago, I metioned here on LuLa that had I been born into the digital age, I might never have become a photographer at all. The visceral kick of making one's first wet print is not matched in digital printing, partly, at least, because that damned image is already seen, and looking better on the monitor, than when it churns out of a machine. It is a cold process with little heart. Where its hook?

I suspect we will end up with Leica doing rangefinders, and Nikon with reflex or mirrorless cameras, both brands at the highest level for a tiny, rich market. Just like watches, then. The top brands survive very well, thank you, selling at a helluva lot more money than most top cameras dream of touching. Think about that.

;-)

Rob

Jonathan Cross

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #66 on: November 26, 2019, 06:41:47 pm »

This reminds me of the transition from analogue to digital audio.  When CDs arrived, they were derided because of the digital sampling.  I put on a cd unbeknown to a friend who was staying.  He is a good musician and has an excellent ear.  He immediately said it was a cd because there was no variation in the spin speed.  Issues over audio quality have all but gone, and analogue recorded music is a small market sector.  Now CDs are disappearing as streamed audio on to phones takes over. 

The same may be happening to recorded images. For many who take images, ease of sharing is important, and the fact that a phone is involved means it is usually on people so they can receive and look.  And let's face it, viewing on most electronic devices do not need loads of megapixels, even at 4K, so 12Mp phones are sufficient. 

Rightly or wrongly IMHO I do not think most of the members of this forum are part of the 'mass market'. We just have to hope that manufacturers will be able to continue to produce the sort of kit we and the professional market use. 

Let's embrace smartphones and see if they stimulate our creativity, and not condemn them because they do not produce pin sharpness at 24"x16"!

Best wishes,

Jonathan
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John Camp

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #67 on: November 26, 2019, 07:48:23 pm »

I'm a photography enthusiast who has occasionally done professional-like work (shooting for news and for niche magazines, etc.) and I think there will always be an interested group of photographers like me, or pure professionals, doing high-quality work, however it is displayed. Eventually, I think, many photos will be viewed on dedicated flat-panel machines that will be like 8K TVs without all the TV guts -- you'll pop in a memory card, or access a wi-fi file, and the photo will be displayed -- or maybe a group of photos, or videos. They may very well be displayed like paintings, on living room walls. Right now, hi res professional cameras are needed for things like the model photos at Victoria's Secret, where the client wants both very smooth skin tones but also fourteen-foot-high prints. Those may eventually be replaced by very large screens, when screen prices fall enough (which they will.) For those screens, 12mp cameras won't be enough. Maybe iPhones will go to 48mp eventually, and they will be enough for very large hi-res, very croppable photos, but I think that's unlikely, because of all the factors that everybody knows about.
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chez

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #68 on: November 26, 2019, 08:16:58 pm »

I'm a photography enthusiast who has occasionally done professional-like work (shooting for news and for niche magazines, etc.) and I think there will always be an interested group of photographers like me, or pure professionals, doing high-quality work, however it is displayed. Eventually, I think, many photos will be viewed on dedicated flat-panel machines that will be like 8K TVs without all the TV guts -- you'll pop in a memory card, or access a wi-fi file, and the photo will be displayed -- or maybe a group of photos, or videos. They may very well be displayed like paintings, on living room walls. Right now, hi res professional cameras are needed for things like the model photos at Victoria's Secret, where the client wants both very smooth skin tones but also fourteen-foot-high prints. Those may eventually be replaced by very large screens, when screen prices fall enough (which they will.) For those screens, 12mp cameras won't be enough. Maybe iPhones will go to 48mp eventually, and they will be enough for very large hi-res, very croppable photos, but I think that's unlikely, because of all the factors that everybody knows about.

I wouldn't count phone cameras out so soon. The amount of R&D going into those phone cameras these days is staggering compared to the pitence camera manufactures are spending on R&D. If the move to viewing images is on large 8k devices...the phones will be driving it...not the traditional cameras that are still deciding where to put buttons on the camera.
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BJL

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #69 on: November 26, 2019, 09:37:45 pm »

Tell this to the CEO's of both Nikon and Canon which are saying their industry is changing with revenues of cameras dropping every year...and for the foreseeable future. Your numbers look somewhat compelling, but they are not playing out in reality.
Perhaps i have given a misleading impression of what I expect, because I have been reacting to over-pessimistic views and so emphasizing the other, more optimistic side of the evidence.

I agree with what Canon and Nikon are indicating about the shrinkage that the ILC (DSLR + MILC) market is facing, but that leaves room more a more nuanced vision than that of "All except us few, proud, dedicated photographers will make do with a phone-camera for both taking and viewing photographs". There is a big gap between "most" and "all" in a market as big as photography.

On one hand, Canon has [IIRC] predicted ILC unit sales getting down to about 5 million per year with a few years, which would be less than half the number at "peak DLSR", and it seems that Nikon is heading for having to write off surplus production capacity (and probably not alone).

On the other hand, Canon and Nikon have between them introduced eight or nine "consumer level", APS-C format ILCs this year and last, and industry-wide the total for "consumer" ILCs is about 19 to 22, roughly matching the total of higher-end models released, by which I mean all in the larger formats (35mm format and up) plus high-end models in the smaller formats (4/3" and APS-C). And that predicted 5 million/year is in line with the best that film SLRs ever achieved, back in an era that supported about four mainstream brands (Canon, Minolta, Nikon, Pentax) along with a few fringe players (Olympus, Konica, ...)

So, industry words and actions point to a  substantial shrinkage of "casual/amateur" usage of ILCs, not its disappearance.
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chez

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #70 on: November 26, 2019, 10:21:40 pm »

Perhaps i have given a misleading impression of what I expect, because I have been reacting to over-pessimistic views and so emphasizing the other, more optimistic side of the evidence.

I agree with what Canon and Nikon are indicating about the shrinkage that the ILC (DSLR + MILC) market is facing, but that leaves room more a more nuanced vision than that of "All except us few, proud, dedicated photographers will make do with a phone-camera for both taking and viewing photographs". There is a big gap between "most" and "all" in a market as big as photography.

On one hand, Canon has [IIRC] predicted ILC unit sales getting down to about 5 million per year with a few years, which would be less than half the number at "peak DLSR", and it seems that Nikon is heading for having to write off surplus production capacity (and probably not alone).

On the other hand, Canon and Nikon have between them introduced eight or nine "consumer level", APS-C format ILCs this year and last, and industry-wide the total for "consumer" ILCs is about 19 to 22, roughly matching the total of higher-end models released, by which I mean all in the larger formats (35mm format and up) plus high-end models in the smaller formats (4/3" and APS-C). And that predicted 5 million/year is in line with the best that film SLRs ever achieved, back in an era that supported about four mainstream brands (Canon, Minolta, Nikon, Pentax) along with a few fringe players (Olympus, Konica, ...)

So, industry words and actions point to a  substantial shrinkage of "casual/amateur" usage of ILCs, not its disappearance.

The professional photographer's market has also tanked big time...so both the top end and bottom has dropped. Let's also not forget that with the emergence of disposable income coming to Asia and China...achieving the same levels of sales as the 90's is really nothing to squawk about...it is in fact heading backwards...especially for a product that is basically an electronic device now.


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BJL

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #71 on: November 26, 2019, 11:48:26 pm »

Let's also not forget that with the emergence of disposable income coming to Asia and China...achieving the same levels of sales as the 90's is really nothing to squawk about...it is in fact heading backwards...especially for a product that is basically an electronic device now.
Absolutely! The big growth in number of people who can afford an interchangeable lens camera (or a gold iPhone) is saving camera makers from a far worse fate, because it is clear that, of those who _could_ afford an ILC, a far smaller fraction actually buy them.
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Rob C

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #72 on: November 27, 2019, 04:28:38 am »

If anyone is in doubt about the iPhone taking over lots of pro work, look no further than Nick Knight, who now uses it almost exclusively.

He runs Showstudio.com, which you can view on youtube. If it works for him at his level of success, which is stellar, why not for the rest of us people? I have been going through a lot of his videos of late, and his enthusiasm and logic about using the cellphone for his main photography and filming is compelling. In one, he mentions an app that he uses for making huge enlargements from the iPhone.

Rob

Manoli

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #73 on: November 27, 2019, 06:04:36 am »

... his enthusiasm and logic about using the cellphone for his main photography and filming is compelling. In one, he mentions an app that he uses for making huge enlargements from the iPhone.

Do you have a link to that video ( and the name of the app ?)
He's uploaded almost 400 videos in the past year alone, so a specific link to that video would be helpful.
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Manoli

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #74 on: November 27, 2019, 06:08:51 am »

*/ off topic

Richard Prince ran a series of 60" prints he 'nicked' off Instagram and then sold for $90,000 a print, but guessing that he projected the image and (re)photographed the projected image on a hi-res MF ...

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/jul/18/instagram-artist-richard-prince-selfies
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/20/arts/design/richard-prince-instagram-copyright-lawsuit.html
https://www.theverge.com/2015/5/30/8691257/richard-prince-instagram-photos-copyright-law-fair-use
« Last Edit: November 27, 2019, 06:17:36 am by Manoli »
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Rob C

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #75 on: November 27, 2019, 04:10:17 pm »

Do you have a link to that video ( and the name of the app ?)
He's uploaded almost 400 videos in the past year alone, so a specific link to that video would be helpful.



That's my problem too: can't remember which particular video it was on. I have been looking mainly at the model interviews, but now that I remember, he also pushed the iPhone on one of those interviews he's done before live audiences - which could be anywhere.

Wish I'd made a note, if only for the future when I might get a new cellphone as my current one no longer makes pix that used to be so useful for when shopping, one pic always better than words in a hardware store!

Rob

gkroeger

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #76 on: November 27, 2019, 05:48:29 pm »

Over the last 20 years I've invested in Hasselblad, Leica and now Nikon. Despite the constant whining of armchair CEOs and naysayers the manufacturers have survived and the cameras have served me well. Long may it continue.

Back to making images...

Over the past 40 years I've invested in Hasselblad, Nikon and LF lenses. Of course they haven't appreciated in value, and most are now gone. I do worry a bit more about investing in the newest AF lenses. Something like a Nikon Z 24-70 f/2.8 has two motors and lots of electronics that need to work just to focus. I am still drawn to more mechanical lenses like the Voigtlanders. At least if their electronics fail I can still get an image. That said, they are not investments, but tools for use and the optical quality of many of the recent crop is amazing.

As for Nikon, they need to focus on products that have decent profit margins. Why they continue to work on compact point-n-shoots is beyond me. Filling out the Z lens roadmap as rapidly as possible seems absolutely key to their success, and sometime in the next year to 18 months, they need to demonstrate the ability to iterate or extend the FX Z line of bodies.
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Manoli

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #77 on: November 27, 2019, 08:08:47 pm »

That's my problem too: can't remember which particular video it was on...

Thank you, Rob.
Had to ask, just in case ... :)

M
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KLaban

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #78 on: November 28, 2019, 02:15:33 am »

Over the past 40 years I've invested in Hasselblad, Nikon and LF lenses. Of course they haven't appreciated in value, and most are now gone. I do worry a bit more about investing in the newest AF lenses. Something like a Nikon Z 24-70 f/2.8 has two motors and lots of electronics that need to work just to focus. I am still drawn to more mechanical lenses like the Voigtlanders. At least if their electronics fail I can still get an image. That said, they are not investments, but tools for use and the optical quality of many of the recent crop is amazing.

As for Nikon, they need to focus on products that have decent profit margins. Why they continue to work on compact point-n-shoots is beyond me. Filling out the Z lens roadmap as rapidly as possible seems absolutely key to their success, and sometime in the next year to 18 months, they need to demonstrate the ability to iterate or extend the FX Z line of bodies.

Just to be clear, I'm no longer invested in Hasselblad or Leica.

Rob C

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Re: Nikon imaging division in trouble
« Reply #79 on: November 28, 2019, 05:51:19 am »

I used to feel that I had holdings in Nikon, Hasselblad 500 series and Rolex.

And I chose my words above carefully, too. Those three items are/were far more than just stuff you use to make snaps and tell the time. When you were at a particular level in your career - or at least en route to getting to where you felt your personal glass ceiling might hang suspended, those items became visible signifiers to clients that you took the job seriously, had achieved a certain level of success, and that they could feel relatively comfortable spending a few score grand with you. Worked for me. The thing about it is this: nobody asks you about your watch, but they notice, especially if they, too, are wearing one. It's perhaps akin to being blonde and having a beautiful face and a great figure, if you see what I mean. It just is.

Today, the 'blads are no more and the Nikons sit pretty much neglected, and the Rolex was stolen in October.

Quite apart from the fact that I am now retired, the watch will never be replaced by another of equal status if only because I find that kind of money too much for me to spend - no longer an investment at this time of life. It has lost its third-party significance now, because after losing my wife I retreated into a fairly solitary world of photography and music appreciation. For me, the Jones no longer exist.

You might be forgiven for believing that going way, way downmarket in the watch replacement saga might prove a simplification of life. Far from it. The new one arrived yesterday by scooter and cellphone call, and I must say, it's a handsome beast, but unfortunately, it arrived with a tease: the steel band (wrist) is huge! I have made an appointment with a friendly old jeweller that I have known for decades - an Italian, which gets my vote - and tomorrow, short of further glitches, links will be removed and I will be able to wear the thing. He suggested I wear longer sleeves this time.

;-(
« Last Edit: November 28, 2019, 05:57:37 am by Rob C »
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