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Author Topic: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science  (Read 96263 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #300 on: August 18, 2019, 12:15:54 am »

Hardly.  I think if you do the research, the last time CO2 levels were at the current concentration, there was no humanity.
So the higher levels created man?
Why are "the experts" doing that?  Why do they want it to "be bad"?

 
You can't have it both ways, Alan. You can't say that it's too complex to predict, and then do exactly that.



They don;t want to be "bad".  They just want to be on the climate change train.  They go along to get along. 

Regarding a conflict, they can't predict which areas of the world will get better and which will be worse.  What I'm predicting is that overall as an average, more rain will be better.  Will there be spots where it might flood more?  Sure. But more water is good for the planet as is more heat.  The historical record shows that. 

Peter McLennan

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #301 on: August 18, 2019, 12:53:20 am »

They don;t want to be "bad".  They just want to be on the climate change train.  They go along to get along

And yet, that’s precisely what you said:

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”experts" want to use to make it seem like it will be bad.

As for your comment
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“so the higher levels created man?”
I’ll just shake my head in bemusement.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #302 on: August 18, 2019, 01:36:09 am »

So the higher levels created man?
They don;t want to be "bad".  They just want to be on the climate change train.  They go along to get along. 

Regarding a conflict, they can't predict which areas of the world will get better and which will be worse.  What I'm predicting is that overall as an average, more rain will be better.  Will there be spots where it might flood more?  Sure. But more water is good for the planet as is more heat.  The historical record shows that.

What is your view on the pace of the current warming that is described by experts as being tens to hundreds of time faster than past climate variations?

You do not feel that this is going to generate a tremendous amount of stress to various ecosystems with a high predictable impact on biodiversity,...?

As far as I am concerned you guys have convinced me. I should lead a more self centered selfish life, just pretend that the 2% chance left that global warming isn’t man driven mean that it certainly isn’t or that even if it were my neighbors are much worse than me... and that most people will be glad to see their heating bill get cheaper... (I’ll delete “air conditioning bill” from my dictionary in the process to avoid any temptation to consider realistically the most obvious consequences).

Heck... I’ll start by buying this car: https://vmp.ebay.com/ebay/viewAllPhotos.aspx?smid=25284913

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: August 18, 2019, 03:42:25 am by BernardLanguillier »
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #303 on: August 18, 2019, 05:41:18 am »

Bart,
You forgot to mention the great uncertainty about the role of increased water vapour and clouds in a changing climate. It's not well understood at all. You're not biased by any chance, are you?  ;) 

The uncertainty is diminishing as the Scientific understanding improves, and things may turn out to be a little worse than previously thought ...

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The following organization, which I think you'd agree is fairly reliable, is at least attempting to address this issue, but much uncertainty still remains.

International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project  https://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/role.html

Here are a few relevant quotes from the linked article:

"If the climate should change, then clouds would also change, altering all of the effects listed above. What is important is the sum of all these separate effects, the net radiative cooling or warming effect of all clouds on Earth. For example, if Earth's climate should warm due to the greenhouse effect, the weather patterns and the associated clouds would change; but it is not known whether the resulting cloud changes would diminish the warming (a negative feedback) or enhance the warming (a positive feedback)."

Well, recent research hints at an answer as Science gains a better understanding. It's likely to have a slight negative effect, resulting in less cooling.

Aerosol emissions may not cool the planet as much as we thought
They lead to slightly less watery clouds, which means less cooling than suspected.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/08/aerosol-emissions-may-not-cool-the-planet-as-much-as-we-thought/

and an article in Nature about that study:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02287-z

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As regards the heat-trapping effect of CO2, one needs to get this into perspective. On average, every group of 2,500 molecules in the atmosphere contains only one molecule of CO2. The analogy of covering oneself with a blanket, which is often used to describe the heat-trapping effect of CO2, represents a huge exaggeration. A more precise analogy would be covering oneself with a very fine netting. If the threads of the netting represented the CO2, they would be so fine you would need a powerful magnifying glass to see them. How warm do you think such a net would keep you?  :D

Your analogy doesn't hold. The trapping of heat that would otherwise have escaped into space, also causes the most abundant gases in the atmosphere to heat up. So it's not a net, but a closed enveloping layer of warmer gas.

In fact, the huge effects that a relatively small amount of CO2 has on the global temperature should cause even more concern. Without the (as stressed by you) small amount of CO2, our earth would not have an average air temperature of about 15 °C but be several degrees colder.

It wouldn't be quite as bad as on our moon (average surface temperature is -36.5  °C, and approx. the same distance from the sun as our earth) which has absolutely no atmosphere to mitigate the amplitudes and distribute the heat over its surface, but that situation does show us the importance of an atmosphere, and why its dangerous to mess it up.
Temperatures on the moon are very hot in the daytime, about 100 degrees C. At night, the lunar surface gets very cold, as cold as minus 173 degrees C. This wide variation is because Earth's moon has no atmosphere to hold in heat at night or prevent the surface from getting so hot during the day, and the surface is a poor conductor for the distribution of heat.

So again, I suggest to not blindly believe what deniers want you to believe. Instead, follow what respected scientists are saying, and be assured that their understanding of the issues is improving all the time. The biggest variable in models is becoming; What are we going to do about it.

Cheers,
Bart
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jeremyrh

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #304 on: August 18, 2019, 05:51:12 am »

So the higher levels created man?

Alan - this is an example of why I don't bother to address your "arguments".
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #305 on: August 18, 2019, 06:48:02 am »

Alan - this is an example of why I don't bother to address your "arguments".

It indeed does look like a waste of time. Yet, as an optimist, I remain hopeful that Alan K. can improve his understanding if he exposes himself to better information sources. That could help in reducing the number of stupid remarks.

For Alan:
What Was It Like When The First Humans Arose On Earth?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2019/05/15/what-was-it-like-when-the-first-humans-arose-on-earth/

And to address the historic CO2 levels being the same as they are now:
Graphic: The relentless rise of carbon dioxide
https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/graphic-the-relentless-rise-of-carbon-dioxide/

Which shows that current CO2 levels are A) Unpresedented in human existence, and B) Accelerating at an unprecedented rate.

This means that the effects may well be more dramatic than humanity as a species can stand (save for a few individuals who live indoors in a controlled climate where they can also grow enough food for themselves).

Cheers,
Bart
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #306 on: August 18, 2019, 08:37:34 am »

I don't buy it.  The argument (extra) rain won't fall in the right places is just an phony explanation the "experts" want to use to make it seem like it will be bad.  As you said, it's too complex to decide exactly what's going to happen in each area of the world.  But the truth is there will be more rain and snow stored in mountains for Spring runoffs generally because there will be more evaporation from warmer temperature. More places will stand a better chance to benefit from the extra rain.  This is another benefit the global warmists don't want to talk about.
Did you not notice the severe flooding that took place in many agricultural areas this past spring in the US.  Some farmers were unable to plant row crops on time.  We have had several huge storms within the past two months that dropped 4-6 inches (10-15cm of rain) in one hour's time resulting in severe flooding of some urban areas.  This is extra rain that I really don't want to see.
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Alan Klein

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #307 on: August 18, 2019, 09:10:33 am »

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As for your comment
Quote
“so the higher levels created man?”
I’ll just shake my head in bemusement.

That was a joke.  You guys are too serious.  Do I need to put the smiley face on every time I'm winking?  ::)

Alan Klein

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #308 on: August 18, 2019, 09:11:59 am »

Alan - this is an example of why I don't bother to address your "arguments".
Jeremy:  That was a joke. ::)

Alan Klein

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #309 on: August 18, 2019, 09:12:45 am »

It indeed does look like a waste of time. Yet, as an optimist, I remain hopeful that Alan K. can improve his understanding if he exposes himself to better information sources. That could help in reducing the number of stupid remarks.

For Alan:
What Was It Like When The First Humans Arose On Earth?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2019/05/15/what-was-it-like-when-the-first-humans-arose-on-earth/
...
Cheers,
Bart
Bart: That was a joke.  ::)

Alan Klein

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #310 on: August 18, 2019, 09:22:06 am »

...

And to address the historic CO2 levels being the same as they are now:
Graphic: The relentless rise of carbon dioxide
https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/graphic-the-relentless-rise-of-carbon-dioxide/

Which shows that current CO2 levels are A) Unpresedented in human existence, and B) Accelerating at an unprecedented rate.

This means that the effects may well be more dramatic than humanity as a species can stand (save for a few individuals who live indoors in a controlled climate where they can also grow enough food for themselves).

Cheers,
Bart

Bart, Thanks for giving us a new chart on the increase of CO2.  Your old one was getting pretty boring seeing it all the time. :) (Note the smiley face indicating I was trying to be amusing. )
However, as you said  "...may well be..."), that doesn't mean a one for one correlation to the rise in earth's temperature even assuming it continues at the pace you've indicated previously.  In any case, without researching all the pros and cons, we should ascertain these before spending all our resources trying to stop climate change.  (No smiley face indicating I was not telling a joke.)

Alan Klein

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #311 on: August 18, 2019, 09:39:31 am »

Apparently, climate change is good for seals and great white sharks.  Way more of both.  Cape Cod in Massachusetts is practically shark heaven. It's the new normal.  I haven't decided if that's a good or bad outcome of global warming, assuming it's caused by global warming. 

https://www.wcvb.com/article/popular-cape-cod-beach-in-orleans-closed-after-confirmed-shark-sighting-attack-on-seal/28728207
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cape-cods-new-normal-sharks-are-everywhere-11566034200

Alan Klein

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #312 on: August 18, 2019, 09:55:59 am »

As if there were one America... The America that has achieved most of what you are talking about is pretty much California, Massassuchets, Oregon and Washington states...

I am obviously over simplifying, but had the guys who are unwilling to face the situation about global warming today been in charge, little of that would have happened...

And, once again, China and India have both ratified the Paris agreement. Only the US hasn't and you know as well as I do that a very large part of the population in the US is strongly unhappy about this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parties_to_the_Paris_Agreement

Cheers,
Bernard
Yes, they ratified it.  But China and India don;t have to do anything about pollution and CO2 emission until 2030.  How can you expect the earth to reduce CO2 emission without CHina who's CO2 production increased from 27% to 30% of the total world's production, and India at 7%?  And it's getting worse especially in India and the rest of the third world.  Here's an article that shows just how bad China is:
"...The world’s juggernaut, though, is China. The country consumes half the world’s coal. More than [/font][/size]4.3 million Chinese[/font][/size] are employed in the country’s coal mines. China has added 40 percent of the world’s coal capacity [/font][/size]since 2002[/font][/size], a huge increase for just 16 years. [/font][/size]“I had to do the calculation three times,” said Carlos Fernández Alvarez, a senior energy analyst at the International Energy Agency. “I thought it was wrong. It’s crazy.”..."[/font][/size]
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/24/climate/coal-global-warming.html?module=inline


Another article how Australia, India and Bangladesh are going coal bigtime.  Where is Paris in all this?  How could you let China and India off the hook in Paris?  ANd what about Australia?  They signed the agreement.  Yet, they opened a huge new area for coal mining.  What's the point of Paris?
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/climate/coal-adani-india-australia.html





Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #313 on: August 18, 2019, 09:59:23 am »

Bart, Thanks for giving us a new chart on the increase of CO2.

You're welcome. I did it with Russ in mind, as he seems to like the charts and graphs I post to make matters easier to grasp.  ;)

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Your old one was getting pretty boring seeing it all the time.


How could it? It automatically updates, and thus is always different (and more alarming). 8)

Quote
However, as you said  "...may well be..."), that doesn't mean a one for one correlation to the rise in earth's temperature even assuming it continues at the pace you've indicated previously.

Correct, it depends on human activity.

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In any case, without researching all the pros and cons, we should ascertain these before spending all our resources trying to stop climate change.

It makes no sense to keep one's foot on the gas-pedal when the edge of the cliff is rapidly getting closer. There is no need to come to a full stop either, while there is an option to adjust ones direction.

Cheers,
Bart
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #314 on: August 18, 2019, 10:01:29 am »

But China and India don;t have to do anything about pollution and CO2 emission until 2030.

You can repeat it as often as you like, but that remains untrue.
Their emission levels will plateau, BECAUSE they are doing something.

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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #315 on: August 18, 2019, 10:05:02 am »

Another article how Australia, India and Bangladesh are going coal bigtime.  Where is Paris in all this?

Wrong question. It's better to ask; Where is Australia in all this? Their coal exports seem to be their economy's life-line.

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/aus/
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In 2017 Australia exported $243B, making it the 20th largest exporter in the world. During the last five years the exports of Australia have decreased at an annualized rate of -0.6%, from $249B in 2012 to $243B in 2017. The most recent exports are led by Iron Ore which represent 19.8% of the total exports of Australia, followed by Coal Briquettes, which account for 19.3%.

That's possibly also an explanation for Ray's exposure to the (local) media.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2019, 10:11:46 am by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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Alan Klein

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #316 on: August 18, 2019, 10:14:53 am »

You're welcome. I did it with Russ in mind, as he seems to like the charts and graphs I post to make matters easier to grasp.  ;)
 

How could it? It automatically updates, and thus is always different (and more alarming). 8)

Correct, it depends on human activity.

It makes no sense to keep one's foot on the gas-pedal when the edge of the cliff is rapidly getting closer. There is no need to come to a full stop either, while there is an option to adjust ones direction.

Cheers,
Bart

Glad to see you're getting into the swing of being jovial.  Now, doesn't that feel good?   :)

Alan Klein

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #317 on: August 18, 2019, 10:17:33 am »

You can repeat it as often as you like, but that remains untrue.
Their emission levels will plateau, BECAUSE they are doing something.



Heroin addicts plateau as well.  Can you imagine another billion middle class Chinese with cars, homes, air conditioning, etc?  At that point, changing the climate will be like shoveling s$$t against the tide.

Alan Klein

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #318 on: August 18, 2019, 10:23:26 am »

Wrong question. It's better to ask; Where is Australia in all this? Their coal exports seem to be their economy's life-line.

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/aus/
That's possibly also an explanation for Ray's exposure to the (local) media.

Climate control politics is local.  Australia is ignoring their Paris promises because there's money to be made in those thar hills, coal hills I mean.  America dropped out and Canada has too much oil and is looking the other way.  What about liberal Norway?  I can't see the Norwegians giving up oil that's making them all rich and paying for "free" health care.  That's the problem with Paris.  Everyone's got an angle.  That's why Trump dropped out.  You see America would in it's stupidity follow what it promised while others just ignore their promises or like China and India don't have to do anything anyway. 

Alan Klein

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Re: How media over-represents 15 times climatosceptiks fake science
« Reply #319 on: August 18, 2019, 10:30:36 am »

This might not have occurred to you, but the value of the car at the end of the term is factored into the lease rate.
Taken over from the wrong thread. 

Anyway, a normal lease ends in three years.  when you buy a car, you usually hold it a lot longer.  And that's where the real risk is.  Just how much will these cars depreciate after 5, 7 or 9 years?  Will a gas car depreciate less? There's a lot of risk with electrics because of the unknown.  You might be buying an Edsel. 
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