Extreme weather

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

That's true, in that time frame the line goes down. But as Warren Buffers advocates, you have to ignore the noise and look at the long term trend.

Which, for the climate, is 5 billion years, not just since 1880 or 1960.

[LesPalenik]

5 billion years is totally unimaginable for me. It's difficult to imagine the world even in the next 100 years. And for most of us, our time frame is shorter still. Quite depressive.

[petermfiore]

5 billion years is totally unimaginable for me. It's difficult to imagine the world even in the next 100 years. And for most of us, our time frame is shorter still. Quite depressive.

We all get our day in the sun. Until the sun is no more.

Peter

[Rob C]

Which, for the climate, is 5 billion years, not just since 1880 or 1960.

There are also those who will tell you that life began no more than six thousand years ago.

Why, then, should one be surprised that others choose to deny the effects of man-made pollution and claim that it makes no difference? To the best of our understanding, nobody before us had gasolene or plastic; I have no idea how badly ty rex farted, and whether he and his pals made up the shortfall. I leave that to those better informed to let us know.

[RSL]

Absolutely, Rob. Let's hear from someone who was there.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Absolutely, Rob. Let's hear from someone who was there.

Humans didn't walk with dinosaurs.

[faberryman]

Humans didn't walk with dinosaurs.

You mean The Flintstones wasn't real?

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

You mean The Flintstones wasn't real?

It may come as a shock, to some, and I hate to be the one breaking the news to you but, they were fictional.

[LesPalenik]

Can anybody predict the year 2084? What will be the biggest changes compared with today?
And how about 2884?

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Can anybody predict the year 2084?..

Oh, I can: Democrats would be still blaming Russia for 2016, 2020, 2024, etc. defeats.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Can anybody predict the year 2084? What will be the biggest changes compared with today?
And how about 2884?

Good question, but we need not wait that long before the shit hits the fan.

The cheapest climate target to hit?
Around 2°C
Action costs money, but so do the consequences of inaction.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/01/the-cheapest-climate-target-to-hit-around-2c/

Quantifying the continuing cost of the increasing threat of climate change is, roughly speaking, impossible. Even just focusing on the financial impacts is daunting, much less putting a number on human suffering and species extinctions. But there are still things we can learn in the attempt. For example, some oppose action to reduce emissions as “too expensive.” Is that a good argument?

Building on previous efforts, a new study led by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research scientists Nicole Glanemann and Sven Willner attempts a full-on cost-benefit calculation. Like a classic optimization problem, their analysis finds the cheapest combination of mitigation costs and damages—and finds that it’s around 2°C warming.

It would be foolish to not act, even when in doubt.

[LesPalenik]

Oh, I can: Democrats would be still blaming Russia for 2016, 2020, 2024, etc. defeats.

I was more interested in what kind of animals and vehicles will be roaming the Earth at that time.

As to the US political scene, the Democrats will be by then a harmless fringe party, pushed aside by the coalition of Greens, Muslim Brotherhood and Anti-abortionists.
As to the other developments, foldable 7G iPhone75 with its 8x11 superthin screen will cost $9,995, although you'll be still able to find perfectly working second-hand iPhone 4 and Samsung 5 devices.
The aging Greta Thunberg will be still heading UN which will be located by then in Norway.

[Alan Klein]

Good question, but we need not wait that long before the shit hits the fan.

The cheapest climate target to hit?
Around 2°C
Action costs money, but so do the consequences of inaction.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/01/the-cheapest-climate-target-to-hit-around-2c/
It would be foolish to not act, even when in doubt.

Have you installed a sprinkler system in your house?  Do you even have smoke detectors?  Have you acted or are you foolish because you doubt the cost vs. the possible benefit? 

[RSL]

Can anybody predict the year 2084? What will be the biggest changes compared with today?
And how about 2884?

How about next week?

[JoeKitchen]

I was more interested in what kind of animals and vehicles will be roaming the Earth at that time.

As to the US political scene, the Democrats will be by then a harmless fringe party, pushed aside by the coalition of Greens, Muslim Brotherhood and Anti-abortionists.
As to the other developments, foldable 7G iPhone75 with its 8x11 superthin screen will cost $9,995, although you'll be still able to find perfectly working second-hand iPhone 4 and Samsung 5 devices.
The aging Greta Thunberg will be still heading UN which will be located by then in Norway.

Just as an aside, I was listening to an interesting podcast on population demographics and growth/decay.  In the USA, progressives and liberals have a birth rate of 1.5, below the minimum of 2.1 to maintain the population.  So, people being raised in a progressive household will decrease over time.  However, conservative and religious peoples have a birth rate of 2.6, a growing population.  On top of that, the vast majority raised in a religious household remain religious later in life. 

In 2084, the USA just may be majority conservative. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... In the USA, progressives and liberals have a birth rate of 1.5...

We certainly want them to implement their own #1 solution for the climate and not have children

[Alan Klein]

Just as an aside, I was listening to an interesting podcast on population demographics and growth/decay.  In the USA, progressives and liberals have a birth rate of 1.5, below the minimum of 2.1 to maintain the population.  So, people being raised in a progressive household will decrease over time.  However, conservative and religious peoples have a birth rate of 2.6, a growing population.  On top of that, the vast majority raised in a religious household remain religious later in life. 

In 2084, the USA just may be majority conservative. 

We might not make it to then.  The country is in trouble now.  Huge debt and demands for more and more freebies that push printing of money that causes inflation that devalues currency, savings, salaries, and savings.   Not a good prescription for success.  We might not make it out of the election before recession, certainly something going to happen bad in next four years. 

The founders understood democracy was very dangerous.  Hence, presidents were to be selected by electors and Senators by the state legislatures, the latter changed to popular vote about 80 years ago.  People are foolishly greedy and will demand free schooling and everything else free.  It's already here and will get worse whether Sanders gets elected or not.  Just look at Europe.  Adding a lot more poor people who don;t speak English and have little acceptance of America as their country is not going to help.  Hopefully their children will be more patriotic.  The [problem is the government has to many freebies they give away.  That's why Bernie just won big in Nevada.  Many newly arrived people there expect big handouts and Bernie promises them all in spades. 

[Rob C]

I was more interested in what kind of animals and vehicles will be roaming the Earth at that time.

As to the US political scene, the Democrats will be by then a harmless fringe party, pushed aside by the coalition of Greens, Muslim Brotherhood and Anti-abortionists.
As to the other developments, foldable 7G iPhone75 with its 8x11 superthin screen will cost $9,995, although you'll be still able to find perfectly working second-hand iPhone 4 and Samsung 5 devices.
The aging Greta Thunberg will be still heading UN which will be located by then in Norway.

And probably representing nobody but itself.

Europe will be much the same but without the Greens and Liberals. All the Moslems in Europe will have returned to what was Palestine, and find themselves in constant conflict with their neighbours who will always consider them outsiders. (See below.)

The Middle East will, as ever, remain an uneasy compromise between Moslems and Moslems, Israel having been exchanged with the Jews for a newly created state in the US. Bordering US states will keep alive a running feud to regain control of their "stolen" lands, but Trump's Latest New Plan (TLNP) will have been implemented, so waddya gonna do? Whatever you say, the guy was a god, and the money spent in America making it great again and so inclusive.

The two remaining and competing (not really competing) British parties will be the Super Starboards (SS) on the far right and the Communist Reaction Party (CRP) on the left; they will have an agreed pact and change ownership of government every second year thus saving time and money on electioneering. New towns will be built to house prisoners in more humane conditions, and they will be able to earn longer, free stays (that save them from working for a living) by agreeing to submit to medical and dietary experiments.

All natural food will be grown under glass. Fish will be more expensive than diamonds, and passports will be abolished because there will be no way to go anywhere else due to the minefields. European forests will have become more dangerous due to heat-encouraged gigantism that affected colonies of stray cats and dogs, and instead of fleas and ticks people will be dreading the super tarantulas that will have taken over the hedgerows, killing all other life that once flourished there, so relatively quiet and peaceful if you are indeed one of the few still stranded out in the sticks.

Much to which to look forward.

[LesPalenik]

The recent strong winds in Europe helped to generate more electricity from the wind farms.

In the past week, more than 69 percent of the total net electricity generation in Germany came from renewable energies, reported by Fraunhofer Institute. That was also a record. The share of wind energy in electricity generation was more than 55 percent.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/sturm-yulia-blaest-windstrom-zu-neuem-rekord-a-14cff10f-fa1f-45e9-be17-4f167de04c06

[Alan Klein]

The recent strong winds in Europe helped to generate more electricity from the wind farms.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/sturm-yulia-blaest-windstrom-zu-neuem-rekord-a-14cff10f-fa1f-45e9-be17-4f167de04c06

If we can do away with night, just think of all the free electricity we could make.