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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 112151 times)

Rob C

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1080 on: November 14, 2019, 04:20:56 am »

Why not? Everything else is. Forest fires? Check. When it is warm - global warming. When it is cold - global warming.


Slobodan, I've already explained that:

"As polar ice melts, the colder waters from there spread across the world's oceans. So, starved of sea-stored heat due to the influx of colder water, for a while, the winter on land becomes colder too. (You can see this effect of sea heating on continents by looking at the effect of the various currents on land masses, with coasts warmer than deeply inland areas during winters:

https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=7YvGXdftL_LKgwf717OABw&q=sea+currents+warming+land&oq=sea+currents+warming+land&gs_l=psy-ab.3..33i160l2.10370.16316..18136...0.0..0.90.1742.25......0....1..gws-wiz.....0..0j0i10j0i22i30j0i333j0i8i13i30j33i22i29i30.3fnH7c9Oqpg&ved=0ahUKEwiXmJSl7dzlAhVy5eAKHfvrDHAQ4dUDCAY&uact=5  )

However, summer radiation is not affected - the Sun pumps out as usual - and so despite what's happening to the seas, the earth mass heats up, and this heating effect is greater because the reflective (and cooling) value of the ice is lessened as it changes from white ice into dark sea and from being a reflector, turns into an absorber of heat.

The longer this continues and the less ice there is to reflect sunlight, the momentum changes from an initial cooling of ocean waters due to the original inflow of melted ice, into a gradual heating, as that colder water is no longer produced as the ice will have lessened until vanished completely."

Nothing has altered that, other than the fires in California and Oz adding to the problem.

Rob

Frans Waterlander

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1081 on: November 14, 2019, 12:59:43 pm »

I've already explained that: "As polar ice melts, the colder waters from there spread across the world's oceans. So, starved of sea-stored heat due to the influx of colder water, for a while, the winter on land becomes colder too.

I guess you haven't really thought that through. If polar ice melts more because of higher global temperatures, then the oceans heat up more because of higher global temperatures as well. So there are at least these two phenomena at work here and I have the sneaking suspicion that the heating effect is greater than the cooling effect at any time of the year.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1082 on: November 14, 2019, 01:12:27 pm »

However, summer radiation is not affected - the Sun pumps out as usual - and so despite what's happening to the seas, the earth mass heats up, and this heating effect is greater because the reflective (and cooling) value of the ice is lessened as it changes from white ice into dark sea and from being a reflector, turns into an absorber of heat.

The longer this continues and the less ice there is to reflect sunlight, the momentum changes from an initial cooling of ocean waters due to the original inflow of melted ice, into a gradual heating, as that colder water is no longer produced as the ice will have lessened until vanished completely."

And in addition to that, climatologists are observing another change in weather systems. The jetstream over the Arctic region, that is instrumental in distributing the heat in the atmosphere just like the oceans are doing with gulf streams, tends to meander in a North/South direction as it travels East.  That meandering caused High-pressure systems to be replaced by Low-pressure and thus a change in precipitation at given locations.

Now, that meandering is slowing down because the heat difference between the equator and the Poles is getting smaller. This then causes High-pressure systems to linger on at certain locations longer than they used to, and thus cause prolonged/more severe heatwaves.

Exactly as predicted, the extremes are becoming more extreme, and it's already noticeable and getting more prominent. Lows are slowly getting a bit higher, and high are getting much higher. So there will still be cold-spells and heat-spells, but their amplitude is increasing and their average is creeping up.
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1083 on: November 14, 2019, 01:31:31 pm »

Only under special circumstances such as war or conflict.  A natural catastrophe.  But not regular business because the government thinks its a good idea.

Well, then you'd better have a chat with Uncle Sam.  According to The Guardian, those subsidies are running at a significant pace.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jul/30/america-spends-over-20bn-per-year-on-fossil-fuel-subsidies-abolish-them
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1084 on: November 14, 2019, 02:02:23 pm »

Well, then you'd better have a chat with Uncle Sam.  According to The Guardian, those subsidies are running at a significant pace.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jul/30/america-spends-over-20bn-per-year-on-fossil-fuel-subsidies-abolish-them
What's that got to do with me? I said I didn't like subsidies. That was your question.

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1085 on: November 14, 2019, 02:10:17 pm »

What's that got to do with me? I said I didn't like subsidies. That was your question.

Everytime you eat a steak, think about the subsidy for that corn-fed cattle.
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Rob C

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1086 on: November 14, 2019, 02:35:24 pm »

I guess you haven't really thought that through. If polar ice melts more because of higher global temperatures, then the oceans heat up more because of higher global temperatures as well. So there are at least these two phenomena at work here and I have the sneaking suspicion that the heating effect is greater than the cooling effect at any time of the year.


The next paragraph went on to say exactly what you have added, above. We were in agreement. I was describing the initial part of the process in that first section of the post.

Rob
« Last Edit: November 15, 2019, 03:37:16 am by Rob C »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1087 on: November 14, 2019, 04:36:24 pm »

Everytime you eat a steak, think about the subsidy for that corn-fed cattle.
Well, at least my tax money is being spent for something I use.  :)
« Last Edit: November 14, 2019, 04:44:23 pm by Alan Klein »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1088 on: November 14, 2019, 05:04:14 pm »

And in addition to that, climatologists are observing another change in weather systems. The jetstream over the Arctic region, that is instrumental in distributing the heat in the atmosphere just like the oceans are doing with gulf streams, tends to meander in a North/South direction as it travels East.  That meandering caused High-pressure systems to be replaced by Low-pressure and thus a change in precipitation at given locations.

Now, that meandering is slowing down because the heat difference between the equator and the Poles is getting smaller. This then causes High-pressure systems to linger on at certain locations longer than they used to, and thus cause prolonged/more severe heatwaves.

Exactly as predicted, the extremes are becoming more extreme, and it's already noticeable and getting more prominent. Lows are slowly getting a bit higher, and high are getting much higher. So there will still be cold-spells and heat-spells, but their amplitude is increasing and their average is creeping up.

So why did it happen 107 years ago?  Isn't it possible that it's just another one of Earth's "once in a while" rare weather events. Maybe global warming is just due to all the hot air around here. :)
https://www.skymetweather.com/content/global-news/us-arctic-blast-being-compared-to-blue-norther-of-1911-after-hundreds-of-records-break/

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1089 on: November 14, 2019, 06:27:43 pm »

So why did it happen 107 years ago?

It? There have been weather extremes in the past, but in recent times it is becoming more the norm than the exception.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1090 on: November 14, 2019, 06:33:54 pm »

Well, at least my tax money is being spent for something I use.  :)

It's good also for Monsanto.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1091 on: November 14, 2019, 07:53:15 pm »

It? There have been weather extremes in the past, but in recent times it is becoming more the norm than the exception.
Bart:  You're the one who claimed the one today is caused by global warming because the temperatures are getting closer between  the poles and equator.  But this happened in 1911 as well.  That's 108 years before those changes occured.  So these are just typical Earth occurrences in weather, rare in frequency, but not caused by some sort of catastrophic climate change.  The problem is the supporters of climate change attribute every extreme weather event to global warming. These are phony claims to stir the pot and get more adherents.  You're overplaying your hand and people see it for what it is.  You're actually hurting your arguments because why should anyone believe anything else you say? It creates distrust.

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1092 on: November 14, 2019, 08:09:23 pm »

Bart:  You're the one who claimed the one today is caused by global warming because the temperatures are getting closer between  the poles and equator.  But this happened in 1911 as well.  That's 108 years before those changes occured.  So these are just typical Earth occurrences in weather, rare in frequency, but not caused by some sort of catastrophic climate change.  The problem is the supporters of climate change attribute every extreme weather event to global warming. These are phony claims to stir the pot and get more adherents.  You're overplaying your hand and people see it for what it is.  You're actually hurting your arguments because why should anyone believe anything else you say? It creates distrust.

This year, and it's only early November, the distance between the top of the snow on my driveway and my waist seems shorter. And the air temperature is lower as well.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1093 on: November 14, 2019, 08:41:45 pm »

This year, and it's only early November, the distance between the top of the snow on my driveway and my waist seems shorter. And the air temperature is lower as well.

Well, I've noticed that as I get older, I'm getting shorter.  So that may account for the higher levels of snow.   8)

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1094 on: November 14, 2019, 09:05:50 pm »

Well, I've noticed that as I get older, I'm getting shorter.  So that may account for the higher levels of snow.   8)

In other words, at this extremely early onset of winter, the snow is getting higher, we are getting shorter, our arteries narrower, and the snow shovel seems also heavier.
The good thing about a lot of snow and shorter outdoorsmen is that the falls are less dangerous.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1095 on: November 14, 2019, 09:34:53 pm »

In other words, at this extremely early onset of winter, the snow is getting higher, we are getting shorter, our arteries narrower, and the snow shovel seems also heavier.
The good thing about a lot of snow and shorter outdoorsmen is that the falls are less dangerous.
Fortunately where I live in a 55+ community, the Home owner's association brings in a professional snow removal company to do all the heavy snow removal.  But I do have a snow shovel sitting in view in my garage to show to relatives who visit less they think I'm lazy. When they notice my clean driveway and sidewalks, I just point to the shovel with a smile and say nothing.  :)

 Meanwhile, many of my neighbors here have forsaken the cold weather, jumped into a jet at Newark Airport, and flown to Florida for the duration of the winter.  They figure correctly that it's easier to put up with rising tides due to global warming in the warm weather of Florida then have to deal with anything up here in the cold.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1096 on: November 14, 2019, 11:13:19 pm »

... the snow shovel seems also heavier.
The good thing about a lot of snow and shorter outdoorsmen is that the falls are less dangerous.

Solution:

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1097 on: November 15, 2019, 04:23:31 am »

Solution:

Great!

Turn snow into ice, and burn some more fossil fuel in the process ...
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1098 on: November 15, 2019, 05:18:43 am »

Great!

Turn snow into ice, and burn some more fossil fuel in the process ...

That's what Rambo would do. The guy melted now enough snow to park there his pickup truck.
When I clear my driveway, I generate heat and keep it under my coat instead of warming up the atmosphere.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1099 on: November 15, 2019, 10:56:51 pm »

Why is the flooding in Venice being blamed on climate change?...

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