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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 54706 times)

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #320 on: July 31, 2019, 11:04:05 pm »

... China’s shift from heavy industry to a high tech service economy...

Which has absolutely nothing to do with the shrieks of the climate alarmists, but everything to do with a natural cycle in developing economies.

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #321 on: July 31, 2019, 11:08:11 pm »

A new study suggests China’s shift from heavy industry to a high tech service economy will cause CO2 emissions to peak well before the 2030 goal. The small cities and old industries will be still polluting in the old way, but it would be a significant step in the right direction..

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2211366-china-is-on-track-to-meet-its-climate-change-goals-nine-years-early/
First, that's a lot of speculation.  Even the article states the following:"However, Haikun and colleagues admit they didn’t analyse many small cities, which have the potential to develop more, so the real emissions may end up higher."

Second, I wouldn't believe any information the Chinese give out.  They lie all the time.  The said they wouldn't militarize the South China Sea islands as they were constructing it.  Totally a lie. Today they're all major armed bases.

Third, they had planned to build 850 coal fired electric plants throughout the world over the next decade or so.  So they will be polluting and adding huge amounts of CO2 but in other countries.  The earth doesn;t care who produces the schmutz.

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #322 on: July 31, 2019, 11:22:47 pm »

Alan, I Agree with all your points.
However, it seems that they are moving into the right direction with reducing the pollution in China. After all, even for them wearing the breathing masks on the streets, reduction of pollution is the only way for survival.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #323 on: July 31, 2019, 11:39:27 pm »

Alan, I Agree with all your points.
However, it seems that they are moving into the right direction with reducing the pollution in China. After all, even for them wearing the breathing masks on the streets, reduction of pollution is the only way for survival.

First off, CO2 isn't pollution.  So they could reduce pollution but still have no effect on CO2 production.

Second, what good is if they cut down CO2 in their country but shift the production to other countries with 850 coal fired plants that they plan on selling and building in those nations? 

Third, without a target, like countries were suppose to meet in the PAris Accord, you have to trust them to do something.  Frankly, they will do nothing to stop their economic machine, pollution and CO2 be damned.  Sure they'll cut schmutz in the cities because they have to breathe.  But they won't go beyond that and will do nothing to stop economic progress.  The basic problem with CO2 and pollution is population.  Especially people who want to enter the middle class.  China has another billion of those who are clamoring to match the 400 million that are in the middle class and better.  That means all those little cities they failed to include in their calculations that will grow and add to the increase in CO2.  Then when they don;t meet any standard in 2030, they just say they need an extension to 2035 or 2040.  You can't really believe anything they say. 

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #324 on: July 31, 2019, 11:58:05 pm »

I do my own part in fighting the pollution:
Among other things, not flying to China and reusing the plastics bags.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #325 on: August 01, 2019, 12:49:57 am »

The pythons made it now all the way to Toronto.

The story continues. For the benefit of the international readers, I felt compelled to report new developments in the python episode.

The python was found Tuesday early morning climbing out of the grate at a gas station. All papers, radio and TV stations had a good story for the whole day. Which was improved Tuesday night, as the python was reunited with his guardian, one happy looking lady who was showing off the curled snake and announcing that it will get a bath that night.
She kept her promise and washed the snake, and then she realized that it was not her snake. It was slightly larger, stronger and with different markings. So today, all papers, radio and TV stations rectified the story. Then a man called the lady that it could be his snake. Happy that the snake will be now reunited with the real owner, she requested a photo of his snake, and then after comparing his pictures with the snake in her terrarium she determined that it couldn't be his snake. In the meantime, 30 more people called her, so there must be now quite a few pythons roaming Toronto streets and sewers.   
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #326 on: August 01, 2019, 01:03:19 am »

Damn Canadian snow birds! Why don’t you take, say, sea shells a a souvenir from Florida, instead of pythons?

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #327 on: August 01, 2019, 10:00:14 am »

The story continues. For the benefit of the international readers, I felt compelled to report new developments in the python episode.

The python was found Tuesday early morning climbing out of the grate at a gas station. All papers, radio and TV stations had a good story for the whole day. Which was improved Tuesday night, as the python was reunited with his guardian, one happy looking lady who was showing off the curled snake and announcing that it will get a bath that night.
She kept her promise and washed the snake, and then she realized that it was not her snake. It was slightly larger, stronger and with different markings. So today, all papers, radio and TV stations rectified the story. Then a man called the lady that it could be his snake. Happy that the snake will be now reunited with the real owner, she requested a photo of his snake, and then after comparing his pictures with the snake in her terrarium she determined that it couldn't be his snake. In the meantime, 30 more people called her, so there must be now quite a few pythons roaming Toronto streets and sewers.   

That's how the problem started in Florida.  As family pythons got big, people dumped them in the Everglades before they were attacked and eaten by their pets. Of course, it may be too cold for them to survive in the "wild" up there.  YOu could ship them down to my NYC where we could dump them in our warmer subways where they can eat our alligators.

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #328 on: August 01, 2019, 10:04:01 am »

On some Brooklyn street.


Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #329 on: August 01, 2019, 11:48:11 am »

Alan, I Agree with all your points.
However, it seems that they are moving into the right direction with reducing the pollution in China. After all, even for them wearing the breathing masks on the streets, reduction of pollution is the only way for survival.

It indeed looks like it, and maybe even ahead of schedule:
China is on track to beat its peak-emissions pledge
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/07/china-is-on-track-to-beat-its-peak-emissions-pledge/

Quote
A new study led by Haikun Wang, Xi Lu, and Yu Deng doesn't look directly at industry or the grid. Instead, it examines the relationship between economic growth and emissions to project that China's should peak in the early 2020s.

Quote
the researchers see evidence that these metropolises follow an economic relationship known as the environmental Kuznets curve—emissions per capita stops increasing once a certain GDP per capita is reached. The idea is basically that dirty growth eventually provides the resources to switch to cleaner options.

The environmental Kuznets curve is an interesting way to analyze, but it will need backing up with actual emission observations.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 11:51:22 am by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #330 on: August 02, 2019, 03:42:56 am »

Thousands of residents in the Derbyshire town of Whaley Bridge have been evacuated amid fears a dam could collapse after it was damaged by floodwaters.

Quote
There are concerns the village could be levelled if the dam, which dates to 1838, gives way.
"At this time the future of the dam wall remains in the balance and I would remind people of the very real danger posed to them should the wall collapse".



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/08/01/whaley-bridge-dam-collapse-latest-news-derbyshire-town-evacuated/
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #331 on: August 02, 2019, 03:52:52 am »

Hot Map



Heatwave over Europe. The image as captured by Esa-Satelite "Sentinel-3s" shows the record air temperatures on July 25 2019.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #332 on: August 02, 2019, 08:56:24 am »

Why is global warming being claimed as the cause of the heat wave? That doesn't seem correct. Didn't the heat come from Africa and was caused by a particular weather pattern?

"The heat wave was caused by a strong omega block,[5] consisting of hot, dry air from North Africa, trapped between cold storm systems. The high-pressure area of hot air, called Yvonne, stretched from the central Mediterranean to Scandinavia and was pinned between two low-pressure areas, one over western Russia and the other over the eastern Atlantic.[6]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2019_European_heat_wave

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #333 on: August 02, 2019, 09:45:00 am »

Why is global warming being claimed as the cause of the heat wave? That doesn't seem correct. Didn't the heat come from Africa and was caused by a particular weather pattern?

"The heat wave was caused by a strong omega block,[5] consisting of hot, dry air from North Africa, trapped between cold storm systems. The high-pressure area of hot air, called Yvonne, stretched from the central Mediterranean to Scandinavia and was pinned between two low-pressure areas, one over western Russia and the other over the eastern Atlantic.[6]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2019_European_heat_wave

The run of unprecedented temperatures in July – which sent records tumbling in the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany – would have been “extremely unlikely” without climate change.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-made-europes-2019-record-heatwave-up-to-hundred-times-more-likely
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Rob C

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #334 on: August 02, 2019, 09:50:40 am »

Why is global warming being claimed as the cause of the heat wave? That doesn't seem correct. Didn't the heat come from Africa and was caused by a particular weather pattern?

"The heat wave was caused by a strong omega block,[5] consisting of hot, dry air from North Africa, trapped between cold storm systems. The high-pressure area of hot air, called Yvonne, stretched from the central Mediterranean to Scandinavia and was pinned between two low-pressure areas, one over western Russia and the other over the eastern Atlantic.[6]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2019_European_heat_wave


You join one step too late: it's the fact of the trappings and what caused them that is the point. It is the inevitable temp/pressure alterations that are happening outwith the natural rhythm of Earth's tilt and the relative seasonal closeness of its parts to the Sun.

You set in motion higher temps in one region and those can't just be restrained to that region: like an unfortunate fart in a restaurant, it can ruin everything from the starter to the final chocolate nibble with your coffee if the room is big enough to permit a slow dispersion. Especially if the place isn't busy and it lacks the critical number of lungs to neutralise the toxic gas.

In like manner to that gas in the restaurant, spreads the heat across the world's areas, and in directions where existing pressures at any given moment dictate.



Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #335 on: August 02, 2019, 09:58:32 am »

Hot Map..l

Clearly localized. Where is the “global” part?

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #336 on: August 02, 2019, 10:06:38 am »

Clearly localized. Where is the “global” part?

Another map, few hours later:
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Rob C

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #337 on: August 02, 2019, 10:25:56 am »

You see what happened there, on that second map? Southern Europe and my little Balearic island; Sicily, the heartland of the Mafia vanished, along with Sardinia and the kidnap kings. Blame the forest fires and the steam arising from the Med: satellite blindness - old tech.

:-(

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #338 on: August 02, 2019, 10:27:49 am »

Clearly localized. Where is the “global” part?

Not really localized (there are maxima and minima until equilibrium is achieved, and there is a night/day cycle), when you realize that the temperature differences are constantly being redistributed around the world. It is also clear that the land mass warms up faster than the immense body of water, and that water, therefore, has a dampening effect on coastal temperatures.

Since most of the landmass is located in the northern hemisphere, this will contribute more to raising the world average, and the southern hemisphere lowers the world average. The global average is increasing, less fast in the southern hemisphere, faster in the northern hemisphere.

Part of the redistribution of heat is done by the air, and part by the ocean currents. For example, in my part of the European continent, by the warm North Atlantic Gulf Stream going from the equator to the northeast in the direction of the Arctic Circle (which also causes more moderate European temperatures in winter). But the multi-decadal trend is almost 2°C higher in my country, over a period of only about 70 years. The extremes are becoming more extreme.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: August 02, 2019, 10:40:01 am by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #339 on: August 02, 2019, 10:38:45 am »

The run of unprecedented temperatures in July – which sent records tumbling in the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany – would have been “extremely unlikely” without climate change.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-made-europes-2019-record-heatwave-up-to-hundred-times-more-likely

I'm not sure it has to do with climate change.  Even the article notes some important differences between Climate Change and heatwaves.  Unfortunately, everyone reacts automatically jumping to conclusions. 


From the linked article.


"This is double the heatwave temperature increase expected by climate models – which are used to make projections about future climate change, van Oldernborgh says:

“The models only predict that heatwaves get warmer at about 1.5C per degree of global warming. So for every degree of global warming, they predict that heatwaves get 1.5C hotter – a little bit faster but not really exceptional.”

The world has seen around 1C of global warming so far – meaning that the models would expect heatwaves to be around 1.5C hotter today than in pre-industrial times. However, temperatures during this heatwave were actually around 3C warmer, he says:

“We really need to do a lot more serious research than we can do within one week to look at why there is such a big discrepancy between the observed trends and the modelled trends.

“But heatwaves are very special. A lot of things come together for a heatwave – heat from the Sahara, local heating due to sunshine, the reaction of vegetation due to very hot conditions – and all these things have to be modelled right. I’m just afraid that these models that have been designed to project the average climate correctly cannot handle these very extreme situations very well.”

The findings are yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. However, the methods used in the analysis have been published in previous attribution studies."
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