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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 43970 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1740 on: June 09, 2020, 09:22:24 am »

I get a sense from some of the replies, that the confusion still continues about the difference between polluting gases and non-polluting gases.

Densely populated areas tend to have much more pollution than remote areas, mainly due to the huge number of polluting vehicles. As a result of the economic slow down resulting from Covid-19 measures, the air in cities has become noticeably cleaner, especially in highly polluted countries such as India where in some places people for the first time can get a clear view of the near-by Himalayan mountains.

However, CO2 is a perfectly clear and odourless gas; not a pollutant at current levels.
The haze around NYC usually rises to 1000-2000 feet.  It's really noticeable from an airplane seat when you take off and land.  It would be interesting to see what the sky looks now if you could find a plane to fly in. 

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1741 on: June 09, 2020, 09:31:15 am »

Unfortunately, there was no decrease in the methane in the air.

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Kayrros estimates that at any given time, there are about 100 high-volume methane leaks around the world. The good news is that once identified, a methane leak is relatively easy to stop. The International Energy Agency estimates that about 75% of current worldwide methane emissions could be avoided—about 40% of that at no net cost. Leaks cost the industry about $30 billion a year in lost revenue, so there are strong incentives for gas companies to detect them early.

Reducing methane emissions by 40% would have an effect in global warming equivalent to the immediate shutdown of 60% of the world’s coal-fired power plants, according to the IEA. “Reducing CO₂ emissions is important for reducing the magnitude of climate change. Reducing methane emissions is important to reduce the rate of climate change."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/as-carbon-recedes-due-to-virus-methane-will-likely-increase

Even worse, in many areas in North America, skunk populations have been lately on increase. Although their gas output doesn't affect the world climate to a large degree, their smell can ruin a walk in the park.

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1742 on: June 19, 2020, 11:48:12 pm »

Siberia has recently experienced record heat waves. The last winter was the hottest in Siberia since records began 130 years ago and the summer temperatures are also breaking all time records.These extreme temperatures affect not only the climate in Siberia, but on the entire planet.

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A prolonged heatwave in Siberia is “undoubtedly alarming”, climate scientists have said. ... On a global scale, the Siberian heat is helping push the world towards its hottest year on record in 2020, despite a temporary dip in carbon emissions owing to the coronavirus pandemic.

Russian towns in the Arctic circle have recorded extraordinary temperatures, with Nizhnyaya Pesha hitting 30C on 9 June and Khatanga, which usually has daytime temperatures of around 0C at this time of year, hitting 25C on 22 May. The previous record was 12C.

In May, surface temperatures in parts of Siberia were up to 10C above average, according to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Martin Stendel, of the Danish Meteorological Institute, said the abnormal May temperatures seen in north-west Siberia would be likely to happen just once in 100,000 years without human-caused global heating.

Thawing permafrost was at least partly to blame for a spill of diesel fuel in Siberia this month that led Putin to declare a state of emergency. The supports of the storage tank suddenly sank, according to its operators; green groups said ageing and poorly maintained infrastructure was also to blame.

www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/17/climate-crisis-alarm-at-record-breaking-heatwave-in-siberia

Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1743 on: June 21, 2020, 11:41:33 am »

Many industrial structures on the north slope in Alaska have foundations of permafrost.  I watched and filmed them mixing just gravel and water and letting it freeze into “concrete” as support for huge buildings.  Crew residences, (some so large they included swimming pools), admin buildings, warehouses, pipelines and storage tanks were built this way.

The day of reckoning has arrived.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1744 on: June 21, 2020, 01:01:40 pm »

The water temperatures of the nearby lakes in southern Ontario warmed up earlier and are higher this year than in other years.
Below is a June comparison between 2020 and 2019 in Lake Simcoe, a rather large lake north of Toronto.

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1745 on: June 21, 2020, 05:47:49 pm »

More ticks.

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1746 on: June 21, 2020, 05:57:28 pm »

More ticks.
Indeed, the ticks and Lyme disease are spreading out in Ontario, especially in the Thousand Islands area.
Surprisingly, in my neighbourhood we don't have now as many mosquitoes as in the previous summers. Most probably because of the dry hot weather. Could be different in the bush country.

hogloff

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1747 on: June 21, 2020, 06:27:39 pm »

Indeed, the ticks and Lyme disease are spreading out in Ontario, especially in the Thousand Islands area.
Surprisingly, in my neighbourhood we don't have now as many mosquitoes as in the previous summers. Most probably because of the dry hot weather. Could be different in the bush country.

Tons of mosquitos here in BC...damp June...but no forest fires.
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1748 on: June 21, 2020, 07:15:49 pm »

...but no forest fires.

Spectacularly clear air here in the Kootenays.
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1749 on: June 22, 2020, 03:04:55 pm »

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2014/12/05/china-used-more-concrete-in-3-years-than-the-u-s-used-in-the-entire-20th-century-infographic/#45e90b004131


Concrete production is extremely CO2 intensive.  China used more concrete in three years than the USA used in the entire 20th century.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1750 on: June 25, 2020, 03:23:51 pm »

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2014/12/05/china-used-more-concrete-in-3-years-than-the-u-s-used-in-the-entire-20th-century-infographic/#45e90b004131


Concrete production is extremely CO2 intensive.  China used more concrete in three years than the USA used in the entire 20th century.
Yet the Paris Accord requires no limitation on China until 2030 although they produce 30% of the world's total CO2. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1751 on: June 25, 2020, 03:52:00 pm »

This is an interesting time, lapse one hour movie showing the sun through a ten year period.  The 11 year sun cycle is observable.  That brings out an interesting question.  How much does the sun's cycling effect weather and climate.  Are there changes over longer periods than 11 years that are having longer term affects on climate like ice ages and warming periods?

Watch a 10-Year Time Lapse of Sun From NASA’s SDO
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/watch-a-10-year-time-lapse-of-sun-from-nasa-s-sdo

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1752 on: July 02, 2020, 12:40:05 am »

Extreme temperatures coupled with high humidity flowing from the Gulf of Mexico are coming to the central and southern US. Temperatures in Dallas will be hotter than in Death Valley, California. Dallas reach a heat index of 110 degrees both on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

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The seriousness of excessive heat cannot be overstated. Although hurricanes and tornadoes gain the most notoriety in the world of weather, many are surprised to learn that it is heat that is the top weather killer.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/01/weather/deadly-heat-forecast-central-us-texas/index.html

Craig Lamson

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1753 on: July 02, 2020, 08:36:01 am »

Extreme temperatures coupled with high humidity flowing from the Gulf of Mexico are coming to the central and southern US. Temperatures in Dallas will be hotter than in Death Valley, California. Dallas reach a heat index of 110 degrees both on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/01/weather/deadly-heat-forecast-central-us-texas/index.html

It not unusual for Dallas to get really hot.  Temp records by month.

https://vocal.media/wander/hottest-temperature-record-for-each-month-of-the-year-for-dallas-texas
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1754 on: July 02, 2020, 09:02:28 am »

I've been to Dallas and Austin in the middle of the summer and it was indeed hot.
But 110-113F temperatures mentioned in your link were the absolute record temperatures which occurred in the last 100 years only a few times. It looks like those records might be exceeded this year.

Craig Lamson

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1755 on: July 02, 2020, 11:29:41 am »

I've been to Dallas and Austin in the middle of the summer and it was indeed hot.
But 110-113F temperatures mentioned in your link were the absolute record temperatures which occurred in the last 100 years only a few times. It looks like those records might be exceeded this year.

Well thats how weather goes.  :)
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1756 on: July 19, 2020, 06:32:26 am »

Siberia’s hot 2020 “effectively impossible” without global warming
Rapid analysis shows this event is hard to explain without climate change.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/siberias-hot-2020-effectively-impossible-without-global-warming/

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Generally speaking, 2020 has been a hell of a year. But in Siberia, there is an additional reason to make comparisons to the inferno: record-breaking warmth and its consequences. Wildfires have burned about 8,000 square miles, aided by a bumper crop of silk moths consuming the needles off conifers. And slumping permafrost also contributed to a massive diesel spill when a tank on unstable ground burst.

The immediate cause of this extreme year was last winter’s jet stream pattern, which kept Siberia mild from later winter into spring, melting ice and snow early and boosting the warmth further. Then in June, a stubborn high pressure set up, as a northward wiggle of the jet stream brought warmer air from the south into Siberia. It was during this heatwave that the Russian town of Verkhoyansk apparently hit 38°C (100°F)—a first for any station above the Arctic Circle.

As with many extreme weather events in recent years, a team of scientists has completed a rapid analysis of the role of climate change in all this. The scientists analyzed both that record high temperature and the warm January-to-June across the region, concluding “in both cases that this event would have effectively been impossible without human-induced climate change.”
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== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1757 on: July 19, 2020, 09:41:39 am »

Well thats how weather goes.  :)

Just in the interests of time-saving, Craig, could you please list the areas in which your view differs from Trump's?  Then you won't need to post on any topics other than those, since we already will know your position on the vast majority of issues.

Thanks.
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TechTalk

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1758 on: July 19, 2020, 06:04:04 pm »

You can't really discuss the subject intelligently with someone until they have the ability to understand the meaning of words like weather and climate. For those that can't understand words, you can always try using elementary school picture examples... https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/infographic-weather-versus-climate-illustrated-with-clothes.png

Sadly, sometimes even that won't help!
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1759 on: July 19, 2020, 10:09:46 pm »

You can't really discuss the subject intelligently with someone until they have the ability to understand the meaning of words like weather and climate. For those that can't understand words, you can always try using elementary school picture examples... https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/infographic-weather-versus-climate-illustrated-with-clothes.png

Sadly, sometimes even that won't help!

I think the general intelligence of the readers of this forum is greater than you imply with that post. I think most readers, here, understand that climate is a composite of the prevailing weather conditions in a particular region, averaged over a number of years. Such weather conditions consist of temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind, cloudiness, sunshine, and the frequency and severity of certain weather events such as storms, droughts and floods.

Climate is always changing. It always has done in the past, and it will continue to do so in the future. That is certain.

However, what is uncertain is the role that human activity has in the current changing climate. To what degree are we contributing to the current, average warming, and how long will such warming continue, and so on?

Even that politically biased, great authority on climate, the IPCC, admits that predictions of future changes in climate are still an unsolved problem, for the reasons they state in the following article.

"The climate system is particularly challenging since it is known that components in the system are inherently chaotic; there are feedbacks that could potentially switch sign, and there are central processes that affect the system in a complicated, non-linear manner. These complex, chaotic, non-linear dynamics are an inherent aspect of the climate system.

As the IPCC WGI Second Assessment Report (IPCC, 1996) (hereafter SAR) has previously noted, “future unexpected, large and rapid climate system changes (as have occurred in the past) are, by their nature, difficult to predict. This implies that future climate changes may also involve ‘surprises’. In particular, these arise from the non-linear, chaotic nature of the climate system …"


https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/TAR-14.pdf
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