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Author Topic: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?  (Read 52692 times)

Dan Wells

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #280 on: January 15, 2019, 04:01:32 pm »

After no cameras at all since February 2018, Sony announces their first APS-C camera since 2016...

An A6300 with a flip screen.

No IS/VR (which they know how to do because the a6500 and most of their full frame models do a nice job).

No BSI sensor (wait a minute, they make all the BSI sensors larger than phone sensors).

No weather sealing (oh, they're Sony, they don't really do that).

No new APS-C lenses (only Fuji does that...)

Where's Sony's innovative camera design team? Are they asleep? Or are they working on something great we haven't seen yet?

More broadly, when did we last see anything really new below full-frame (DSLR or mirrorless) from anyone except Fuji?

The E-M1x will be really new, but it will also be really niche as far as I can see.

Everything else below full-frame seems to be mailed in "upgrades" that are as likely to take away useful features as add them (I'm looking at you, Nikon).


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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #281 on: January 15, 2019, 05:05:33 pm »

After no cameras at all since February 2018, Sony announces their first APS-C camera since 2016...

An A6300 with a flip screen.

No IS/VR (which they know how to do because the a6500 and most of their full frame models do a nice job).

No BSI sensor (wait a minute, they make all the BSI sensors larger than phone sensors).

No weather sealing (oh, they're Sony, they don't really do that).

No new APS-C lenses (only Fuji does that...)

Where's Sony's innovative camera design team? Are they asleep? Or are they working on something great we haven't seen yet?

More broadly, when did we last see anything really new below full-frame (DSLR or mirrorless) from anyone except Fuji?

The E-M1x will be really new, but it will also be really niche as far as I can see.

Everything else below full-frame seems to be mailed in "upgrades" that are as likely to take away useful features as add them (I'm looking at you, Nikon).

Let's not forget to mention the price, under $1,000...not too shabby given it has eye focus tracking something the cameras from CaNikon costing more than twice and up to almost 4 times are struggling with. It's yet another preemptive blow to CaNikon who might be thinking about releasing a mirrorless APS-C camera...setting the bar very much like the A73 set the bar.

I'll bet dollars to donuts the a6400 has better overall focusing than anything so far from CaNikon not to mention speed.

So even at a majorly reduced price, it has features that are blantantly missing from the current flagships of CaNikon.

You might also mention the upcoming FW upgrade to the A7R3, A73 and A9 enabling animal eye focus tracking and realtime image backup to remote devices.
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Dan Wells

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #282 on: January 15, 2019, 06:32:24 pm »

With the recent round of price cuts, the X-T3 and X-H1 are sitting not very far over $1000...

FAR better lenses (not counting much larger Sony FF lenses - if you're going to use Sony FF lenses, why not pick up an A7II body for the same price as an a6400)?

Fast focus - probably not better than the a6400, but probably not worse

Far better ergonomics (to me, also to most reviewers) than any Sony (especially APS-C Sonys)

Full weather sealing

And your choice of the big features, although not both in one camera - the X-H1 has excellent IBIS, and the X-T3 has a newer generation BSI sensor (why the heck does the a6400 not use the Sony 26 MP BSI sensor)?

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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #283 on: January 15, 2019, 07:10:32 pm »

With the recent round of price cuts, the X-T3 and X-H1 are sitting not very far over $1000...

FAR better lenses (not counting much larger Sony FF lenses - if you're going to use Sony FF lenses, why not pick up an A7II body for the same price as an a6400)?

Fast focus - probably not better than the a6400, but probably not worse

Far better ergonomics (to me, also to most reviewers) than any Sony (especially APS-C Sonys)

Full weather sealing

And your choice of the big features, although not both in one camera - the X-H1 has excellent IBIS, and the X-T3 has a newer generation BSI sensor (why the heck does the a6400 not use the Sony 26 MP BSI sensor)?

Big reason...because I also shoot full frame Sony as well and can share a lot between the two cameras. Something you can't do with Fuji as once you are in APS-C land with Fuji you are stuck there.

I love being able to use the same lenses on my full frame as well as APS-C cameras....my A6000 makes a wonderful backup camera as it uses the same batteries, Chargers, memory cards and lenses as my main camera...so for a full backup I have this tiny camera that fits into the corner of my pack and I don't even notice it's there...the perfect backup.
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Dan Wells

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #284 on: January 15, 2019, 09:19:02 pm »

That case certainly makes sense - when an APS-C camera serves as backup (or a high pixel density telephoto option) to full-frame, it makes all the sense in the world to have a compatible system. Canon and Nikon DSLR shooters have done that for years.

What I was questioning was how Sony APS-C is compelling on its own (e.g. not as a body stuck in a case full of Sony FF gear).

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Martin Kristiansen

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #285 on: January 16, 2019, 12:38:02 am »

That case certainly makes sense - when an APS-C camera serves as backup (or a high pixel density telephoto option) to full-frame, it makes all the sense in the world to have a compatible system. Canon and Nikon DSLR shooters have done that for years.

What I was questioning was how Sony APS-C is compelling on its own (e.g. not as a body stuck in a case full of Sony FF gear).

I work with exactly that scenario. Sony full frame and APSC.  Can tell you why I like the system

In a previous post you speak of a 6300 with a flip screen saying it’s the first Sony APSC since 2016 and then give its specs. True what you say but misleading since the camera launched in 2016 was the 6500. Touch screen, IBIS and other upgrades on the 6300. That is the camera I own.

I love the form factor of the Sony 6500. I go places where photography isn’t exactly encouraged and no one looks up when I shoot on this little camera. It doesn’t look serious. Yet a good sensor, good auto focus, high frame rate, full silent shooting, IBIS, 24 MP. When weight and stealth is an absolute neccisity it woks way better than the Fuji and Olympus offerings which look like scaled down SLR cameras. I put the 6500, or 6300 which I also own, in a small sling bag with 4 little primes and I’m good to go. Concerts where they stop people going in with “serious cameras” I have no issue.

My apsc Sony cameras take the same lenses as my FF. A A7RII. Sometimes I even use an APSC lens on FF and the camera crops automatically. I do the same in the other direction. 90mm Sony macro gives me 135mm macro on the APSC in an easily managed configuration. Controls are all more or less the same, flash all works the same. I have been reluctant to upgrade the A7RII beacause it uses the same batteries as the APSC. I have handfuls of them and I’m fine with the 200 to 300 frames I get per battery. On a commercial shoot if I’m shooting FF the APSC is is very light second body that uses all the same lenses and batteries.

I realize this is quite specific to me. I sometimes need 40 plus MP in studio on tripod and I sometimes need a small camera in dangerous street locations. Sometimes I am shooting product for litho and sometimes for web. Sometimes I shoot video and sometimes I’m shooting on a 4 day wilderness hike in the desert or the Himalayas at over 5000 m. I shoot commercially and for pleasure. The Sony system with APSC and FF has been  incredible versatile and easy to use. 
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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #286 on: January 16, 2019, 08:34:38 am »

I work with exactly that scenario. Sony full frame and APSC.  Can tell you why I like the system

In a previous post you speak of a 6300 with a flip screen saying it’s the first Sony APSC since 2016 and then give its specs. True what you say but misleading since the camera launched in 2016 was the 6500. Touch screen, IBIS and other upgrades on the 6300. That is the camera I own.

I love the form factor of the Sony 6500. I go places where photography isn’t exactly encouraged and no one looks up when I shoot on this little camera. It doesn’t look serious. Yet a good sensor, good auto focus, high frame rate, full silent shooting, IBIS, 24 MP. When weight and stealth is an absolute neccisity it woks way better than the Fuji and Olympus offerings which look like scaled down SLR cameras. I put the 6500, or 6300 which I also own, in a small sling bag with 4 little primes and I’m good to go. Concerts where they stop people going in with “serious cameras” I have no issue.

My apsc Sony cameras take the same lenses as my FF. A A7RII. Sometimes I even use an APSC lens on FF and the camera crops automatically. I do the same in the other direction. 90mm Sony macro gives me 135mm macro on the APSC in an easily managed configuration. Controls are all more or less the same, flash all works the same. I have been reluctant to upgrade the A7RII beacause it uses the same batteries as the APSC. I have handfuls of them and I’m fine with the 200 to 300 frames I get per battery. On a commercial shoot if I’m shooting FF the APSC is is very light second body that uses all the same lenses and batteries.

I realize this is quite specific to me. I sometimes need 40 plus MP in studio on tripod and I sometimes need a small camera in dangerous street locations. Sometimes I am shooting product for litho and sometimes for web. Sometimes I shoot video and sometimes I’m shooting on a 4 day wilderness hike in the desert or the Himalayas at over 5000 m. I shoot commercially and for pleasure. The Sony system with APSC and FF has been  incredible versatile and easy to use.

Martin, exact same reasons I use the A6000 as my backup. I just would never buy into an APS-C system which basically dead ended you if you choose or require a full frame system. When shooting Canon, I used both a full frame camera and a crop camera, but never bought crop lenses as that limits their use.

Fuji is a great crop system...but it's a dead end if you want / need more. Fine for some obviously...but I like the flexibility of being able to use both crop and full frame depending on what I'm shooting.
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Martin Kristiansen

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #287 on: January 16, 2019, 08:38:01 am »

Martin, exact same reasons I use the A6000 as my backup. I just would never buy into an APS-C system which basically dead ended you if you choose or require a full frame system. When shooting Canon, I used both a full frame camera and a crop camera, but never bought crop lenses as that limits their use.

Fuji is a great crop system...but it's a dead end if you want / need more. Fine for some obviously...but I like the flexibility of being able to use both crop and full frame depending on what I'm shooting.

You get my point. Having essentially two systems that work so well together is very useful to me.
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BJL

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Mirrorless war – or another digression into "APS-C and MFT are dying"?
« Reply #289 on: January 27, 2019, 06:37:37 pm »

https://photorumors.com/2019/01/27/canon-sees-a-grim-future-for-the-camera-business-the-digital-camera-market-is-likely-to-shrink-by-half-in-the-next-two-years/

There you go... it looks like Canon themselves agree with my forecast that low end is dead... ;)

Little news there: we have all known for a long time that the market for "dedicated cameras" as a whole (as opposed to cameras embedded into smart phones) is shrinking, predominately but not only in the lower roughly half of that market that consists of fixed-lens so-called "compact" cameras, as opposed to the higher level sector of ILCs. But do you see in that Canon comment any hint that the mainstream ILC formats (APS-C and MFT) are part of the dying "low end", as you seem to view them? It seems that I have to keep restating that from the point of view of a company like Canon or Nikon, a substantial part of the market for digital cameras is those fixed lens models (which only recently dropped below half of all camera sales revenue, and still take the majority of camera unit sales last time I looked). Meanwhile, a lot of advanced amateurs are happily using gear in formats smaller than the 35mm film format, where also a clear majority of the ILC revenues come from: 60–70% by my reckoning. In the context of camera-that-are-not-phones as a whole, formats smaller than 35mm format probably generate about 80% of revenue; is that revenue base soon to be small enough to abandon?
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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war – or another digression into "APS-C and MFT are dying"?
« Reply #290 on: January 27, 2019, 09:09:05 pm »

Little news there: we have all known for a long time that the market for "dedicated cameras" as a whole (as opposed to cameras embedded into smart phones) is shrinking, predominately but not only in the lower roughly half of that market that consists of fixed-lens so-called "compact" cameras, as opposed to the higher level sector of ILCs. But do you see in that Canon comment any hint that the mainstream ILC formats (APS-C and MFT) are part of the dying "low end", as you seem to view them? It seems that I have to keep restating that from the point of view of a company like Canon or Nikon, a substantial part of the market for digital cameras is those fixed lens models (which only recently dropped below half of all camera sales revenue, and still take the majority of camera unit sales last time I looked). Meanwhile, a lot of advanced amateurs are happily using gear in formats smaller than the 35mm film format, where also a clear majority of the ILC revenues come from: 60–70% by my reckoning. In the context of camera-that-are-not-phones as a whole, formats smaller than 35mm format probably generate about 80% of revenue; is that revenue base soon to be small enough to abandon?

It's interesting that Sony just released a so called low end APS-C camera, the A6400. Bet it will sell like hot cakes!

What you are going to see in the market is the price of cameras will increase...we are already seeing this. There will still be the lower end of the ILC market and the higher end. It's just the low end will not be as low as before as far as price goes and the higher end will be even higher.

And like before the manufactures will get most of their revenues from their lower end products. Always have...always will.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Mirrorless war – or another digression into "APS-C and MFT are dying"?
« Reply #291 on: January 28, 2019, 12:00:02 am »

It's interesting that Sony just released a so called low end APS-C camera, the A6400. Bet it will sell like hot cakes!

There is going to be one generation that may still be reasonably successful, that won't change the overall downwards trend.

As far as low end selling more than high end. Yes, that certainly will remain true. It seems we mostly agree when you write that the positioning of the low end will be much higher, both in price and in capabilities.

As a result the low end will sell in much lower numbers than it once did. Which basically is exactly what I have been saying. ;)

Which pretty much means that the recent market share numbers we have been seeing these past years are pretty much irrelevant. What will matter is the ability of Canon and Nikon to motivate their FF users to stay on board/attract new users. If the numbers we are seeing in Japan about Z vs R are representative, at the moment it looks like we will see a significant change of balance with Nikon gaining important market shares over Canon in a higher end FF centric market.

This could of course still change if Canon decides to become more serious about mirrorless.

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: January 28, 2019, 12:26:14 am by BernardLanguillier »
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Dan Wells

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #292 on: January 28, 2019, 12:55:17 am »

I'm not sure the high end will get higher (unless you count weird collectibles from Leica and friends). Phase One may continue to push further and further into the stratosphere, but that's a negligible number of units per year. The mainstream manufacturers have actually abandoned their highest price point (the $8000 high-resolution FF bodies are gone).

The R&D that used to go into $500 cameras seems to be going into $1000-$3500 cameras now. Canon, Nikon and Sony continue to make $500 cameras, and to sell a lot of them, but they are getting mailed-in updates that don't add anything. Meanwhile everything from $1000 on up to $3500 is getting a lot of attention, and we're seeing real updates and new models ranging from the X-T3 to the Z7.

I strongly suspect we're going to see three new APS-C action-oriented cameras in the $1000-$2000 range in the next year or so (Canon, Nikon and Sony - very likely all mirrorless). I'm also expecting two new lower-end FF mirrorless models from Canon and Nikon - in the same price range as the action-oriented cameras, but FF and lower speed. We may well see an updated Sony high-resolution body and/or a  brand-new Canon high-resolution mirrorless to go with the Panasonic high-res body we already know about. Two new speed demons, if not three, will stalk the Tokyo Olympics in a year and a half. Fuji's promising the first 100 MP camera under $30,000 - and they're likely to get it in under $10,000. At least a couple of new video-oriented cameras are coming as well.

Hardly a time of no development effort - but nothing much in the Rebel/D3x00/a5100 range. Everything listed above is going to be $1000+, and very little of it (the Canon and Nikon speed demons, and the medium format Fuji, but  that's all) will be over $3500.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Mirrorless war – or another digression into "APS-C and MFT are dying"?
« Reply #293 on: January 28, 2019, 07:43:01 am »


As far as low end selling more than high end. Yes, that certainly will remain true. It seems we mostly agree when you write that the positioning of the low end will be much higher, both in price and in capabilities.

As a result the low end will sell in much lower numbers than it once did. Which basically is exactly what I have been saying. ;)

Which pretty much means that the recent market share numbers we have been seeing these past years are pretty much irrelevant. What will matter is the ability of Canon and Nikon to motivate their FF users to stay on board/attract new users. If the numbers we are seeing in Japan about Z vs R are representative, at the moment it looks like we will see a significant change of balance with Nikon gaining important market shares over Canon in a higher end FF centric market.

Cheers,
Bernard

What will be interesting to see for Nikon is how much new lens sales for Z cameras adds to their bottom line.  Yes, the adapter is great for those who have legacy lenses (I can even use my really old 50 & 105mm lenses on my Z 6) but it adds some bulk to the camera/lens set up.  Will those who are moving to Z cameras, end up replacing their F mount lenses with the newer ones as they get rolled out.  I really like the 24-70 zoom on my Z 6 and it's really tempting to purchase primes as they are issued.
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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war – or another digression into "APS-C and MFT are dying"?
« Reply #294 on: January 28, 2019, 09:37:25 am »

There is going to be one generation that may still be reasonably successful, that won't change the overall downwards trend.

As far as low end selling more than high end. Yes, that certainly will remain true. It seems we mostly agree when you write that the positioning of the low end will be much higher, both in price and in capabilities.

As a result the low end will sell in much lower numbers than it once did. Which basically is exactly what I have been saying. ;)

Which pretty much means that the recent market share numbers we have been seeing these past years are pretty much irrelevant. What will matter is the ability of Canon and Nikon to motivate their FF users to stay on board/attract new users. If the numbers we are seeing in Japan about Z vs R are representative, at the moment it looks like we will see a significant change of balance with Nikon gaining important market shares over Canon in a higher end FF centric market.

This could of course still change if Canon decides to become more serious about mirrorless.

Cheers,
Bernard

The only reason we are seeing more Nikon mirrorless sales in Japan is because of the low end Z6 which is outselling the high end Z7 by a magnitude...which is exactly how it always was...low end outselling high end by bucket loads. Canon has yet to release their high end and in fact their low end. We'll see how things settle out once more Canon cameras are released.
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faberryman

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Re: Mirrorless war – or another digression into "APS-C and MFT are dying"?
« Reply #295 on: January 28, 2019, 11:27:18 am »

We'll see how things settle out once more Canon cameras are released.
By then, things will have changed. Playing catch up is not a good strategy.
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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war – or another digression into "APS-C and MFT are dying"?
« Reply #296 on: January 28, 2019, 11:56:47 am »

By then, things will have changed. Playing catch up is not a good strategy.

The full frame mirrorless market has been in swing for years now. CaNikon are both desperately playing catch up.
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Guillermo Luijk

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #297 on: January 28, 2019, 01:19:32 pm »

Canon has yet to release their high end and in fact their low end. We'll see how things settle out once more Canon cameras are released.

Lower than Canon R? what would you drop from its current features?.

Regards

Rado

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #298 on: January 28, 2019, 01:34:47 pm »

It probably means lower quality components - lower spec display/EVF, the ever so popular 6D2 sensor...
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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #299 on: January 28, 2019, 02:03:33 pm »

Lower than Canon R? what would you drop from its current features?.

Regards

They will release an APS-C camera which will fall below their existing EOS-R camera.
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