Pages: 1 ... 11 12 [13] 14 15 ... 27   Go Down

Author Topic: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?  (Read 52689 times)

BernardLanguillier

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 13983
    • http://www.flickr.com/photos/bernardlanguillier/sets/
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #240 on: January 03, 2019, 11:28:01 am »

But that doesn't change the landscape. They all suffer the smartphone problem, so for marketshare purposes it can be ignored.

Nikon may be talented, but have an extremely long trackrecord for not turning that into more marketshare.

Which leaves Sony and Panasonic, both of which might be able to eat away some marketshare on the basis of video demands. In most other respects, it is not going to replace Canon's professional market and services.

Now, admittedly, that particular marketshare may already be distributed as per your assessment of 30%. It has already been mentioned in this and other threads that we don't really know undiluted numbers...

The only case where the evolution we see wouldn’t result in a significant decrease of market share for Canon is if they are as well represented in the high end segment as they are in the low end.

We lack clear data on this, but we have many partial information pointing to the fact that they have been hit significantly by the faster technical progress made by Sony and Nikon these past 10 years.

If the low end were to disappear completely overnight my guess is that they would probably already be #3 in new camera sales.

Cheers,
Bernard

hogloff

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1187
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #241 on: January 03, 2019, 01:31:48 pm »

The only case where the evolution we see wouldn’t result in a significant decrease of market share for Canon is if they are as well represented in the high end segment as they are in the low end.

We lack clear data on this, but we have many partial information pointing to the fact that they have been hit significantly by the faster technical progress made by Sony and Nikon these past 10 years.

If the low end were to disappear completely overnight my guess is that they would probably already be #3 in new camera sales.

Cheers,
Bernard

2017 Canon's market share in revenue was 48% and Nikon's 22%.

Do you really believe Nikon would overtake Canon's market share if the low end falls out? How much do you think Nikon's revenue is due to the low end?
Logged

32BT

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3095
    • Pictures
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #242 on: January 03, 2019, 02:14:36 pm »

The only case where the evolution we see wouldn’t result in a significant decrease of market share for Canon is if they are as well represented in the high end segment as they are in the low end.

We lack clear data on this, but we have many partial information pointing to the fact that they have been hit significantly by the faster technical progress made by Sony and Nikon these past 10 years.

If the low end were to disappear completely overnight my guess is that they would probably already be #3 in new camera sales.

Cheers,
Bernard

This can't be right: if they were hit in the high end, then they would have been growing in the low end against the trend. How would that fly? Either:
1. There is a low end that was growing for Canon because other manufacturers gave up?
2. Their high-end simply didn't take as much of a hit as estimated?

I think what dilutes the numbers most is the fact that photography as a business proposition has changed a lot with digital and the corresponding write off. It's easy to sell a lot of bodies if a new body is required for each little iteration, but in the long run, that is unsustainable, especially in a professional environment. In addition, most working pros probably appreciate consistency in handling more than any other factor. Sony therefore may have had a 5 year lead, but they don't particularly offer 50 year consistency.
Logged
Regards,
~ O ~
If you can stomach it: pictures

BernardLanguillier

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 13983
    • http://www.flickr.com/photos/bernardlanguillier/sets/
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #243 on: January 03, 2019, 02:37:02 pm »

2017 Canon's market share in revenue was 48% and Nikon's 22%.

Do you really believe Nikon would overtake Canon's market share if the low end falls out? How much do you think Nikon's revenue is due to the low end?

Would you mind providing a link to that info?

I only saw numbers in terms of units produced.

Cheers,
Bernard

hogloff

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1187
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #244 on: January 03, 2019, 03:02:24 pm »

Would you mind providing a link to that info?

I only saw numbers in terms of units produced.

Cheers,
Bernard

Go onto the CIPA website, Canon investors website and Nikon investors website and look at their financial reports for 2017...the data is all there.
Logged

BernardLanguillier

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 13983
    • http://www.flickr.com/photos/bernardlanguillier/sets/
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #245 on: January 05, 2019, 08:32:45 pm »

Go onto the CIPA website, Canon investors website and Nikon investors website and look at their financial reports for 2017...the data is all there.

I can only find unit numbers on CIPA and I am not sure how you compute value share from the Canon and Nikon reports.

I am sure you kept the numbers somewhere. Would you mind explaining how your got to your 48% value share for Canon?

Thanks.

Cheers,
Bernard

hogloff

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1187
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #246 on: January 06, 2019, 09:57:02 am »

I can only find unit numbers on CIPA and I am not sure how you compute value share from the Canon and Nikon reports.

I am sure you kept the numbers somewhere. Would you mind explaining how your got to your 48% value share for Canon?

Thanks.

Cheers,
Bernard

Have you looked in detail at the CaNikon investor reports?
Logged

phila

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 327
    • www.philaphoto.com
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #247 on: January 09, 2019, 06:16:49 pm »

This might be worth the (long) read for some (basic) insights into Canon's development path/s:

https://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2019/01/08/wheres-canon-going-with-the-eos-r-do-they-have-a-plan

BernardLanguillier

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 13983
    • http://www.flickr.com/photos/bernardlanguillier/sets/
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #248 on: January 09, 2019, 08:25:07 pm »

This might be worth the (long) read for some (basic) insights into Canon's development path/s:

https://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2019/01/08/wheres-canon-going-with-the-eos-r-do-they-have-a-plan

Hum... just read it, I am not sure what information this really adds.

Is there something more to it than:
- The next R body will be even lower end than the initial R but higher end bodies will follow at some point,
- They acknowledge that the R body video is sub-par (crop,...) and its AF is not at the level of the 1DX II,
- They will go 8K some day,
- They will release 24-70 f2.8 and 70-200 f2.8 some time soon (assuming this means 2019).

The lack of clarity about the 24-70mm f2.8 is rather telling... Who will buy both a 24-70mm f2.8 and a 28-70mm f2.0? If you have to pick one, are 95% of people (especially working pros) not going to go for the 24-70mm f2.8 which is a much more useful range of focal lengths for a zoom lens, especially if it is stabilized?

Cheers,
Bernard

phila

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 327
    • www.philaphoto.com
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #249 on: January 09, 2019, 09:06:28 pm »

I guess just that rather than rumoured or logical guesses we now have that info from the "horses's mouth" so to speak. Also the fact that DSLRs still account for 65-70% of the US market helps put the mirrorless sales numbers/share in perspective.

And just like the EF24-70 is available in f2.8 and f4 versions you'll have the choice of smaller/lighter/cheaper or big/best optically/expensive for the RF lens options.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2019, 09:10:59 pm by phila »
Logged

BJL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6600
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #250 on: January 10, 2019, 04:33:39 pm »

@Bernard, that is most of the real news in the long article, but I think you missed one item: Canon will at last add IBIS! So finally Canon and Nikon will be caught up with what Panasonic, Konica-Minolta and Olympus pioneered. (Meaning the ingredients of IBIS, Live View and EVF.)

The order of “entry-level next” makes sense both because of the often denied fact that that is where most of the revenue is once you get past the prestige-posturing needed with the first releases in a new system, and because it seems that more time is needed to gets mirrorless AF up to “no compromises” level. The Z7 doesn’t quite need that, it not being primarily an action photography camera. It does mean that some smaller, more affordable and mainstream lenses are needed after the 28-70/2 and 50/1.2 “look what the new mount lets us do!” show pieces.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2019, 04:37:19 pm by BJL »
Logged

Rado

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 247
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #251 on: January 10, 2019, 06:06:45 pm »

Man that interview was painful to read. There's a language barrier and they give it to a guy who can't get to his point in less than 2 paragraphs (if at all). How do they land an interview with a top company exec with such amateurish skills?

As for the little real info actually provided - 8K video sounds cool, if only for the "with a 10x crop, Canon?" jokes that it started to produce.
Logged

BernardLanguillier

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 13983
    • http://www.flickr.com/photos/bernardlanguillier/sets/
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #252 on: January 10, 2019, 06:49:44 pm »

As for the little real info actually provided - 8K video sounds cool, if only for the "with a 10x crop, Canon?" jokes that it started to produce.

Frankly, 8K is not much more than a buzzword... just like a 28-70 f2.0. Canon has always been great at marketing, but it feels like the machine is now living its own life, very far from the real needs of photographers.

Good raw 4K is an order of magnitude more relevant.

Cheers.
Bernard
« Last Edit: January 10, 2019, 07:42:59 pm by BernardLanguillier »
Logged

hogloff

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1187
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #253 on: January 10, 2019, 09:04:32 pm »

Frankly, 8K is not much more than a buzzword... just like a 28-70 f2.0.

Cheers.
Bernard

Sort of like the 58 0.95 from Nikon? Seems to me CaNikon is in a pissing contest.
Logged

BernardLanguillier

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 13983
    • http://www.flickr.com/photos/bernardlanguillier/sets/
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #254 on: January 10, 2019, 09:15:49 pm »

Sort of like the 58 0.95 from Nikon? Seems to me CaNikon is in a pissing contest.

Fair enough. But that's pretty much the only aspect in Nikon Z's annoucements that isn't of immediate and obvious practical use.

I would argue though that. Although the 58mm f0.95 is obviously a niche product, it may enable the creation of images not easily achievable before. I don’t see what the 28-70mm f2.0 brings besides boasting rights.

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: January 10, 2019, 09:46:35 pm by BernardLanguillier »
Logged

hogloff

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1187
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #255 on: January 10, 2019, 10:32:36 pm »

Fair enough. But that's pretty much the only aspect in Nikon Z's annoucements that isn't of immediate and obvious practical use.

I would argue though that. Although the 58mm f0.95 is obviously a niche product, it may enable the creation of images not easily achievable before. I don’t see what the 28-70mm f2.0 brings besides boasting rights.

Cheers,
Bernard

Well Sigma makes 24-35 f2 which seems to be heralded by many wedding shooters. Personally I see way more use for a 28-70f2 than a $6,000 58 0.95 lens. If I was a betting man, I'd say the 28-70 will outsell the 58 by at least an order of magnitude.
Logged

BernardLanguillier

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 13983
    • http://www.flickr.com/photos/bernardlanguillier/sets/
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #256 on: January 11, 2019, 12:33:47 am »

Well Sigma makes 24-35 f2 which seems to be heralded by many wedding shooters. Personally I see way more use for a 28-70f2 than a $6,000 58 0.95 lens. If I was a betting man, I'd say the 28-70 will outsell the 58 by at least an order of magnitude.

That's very likely, the price will be much lower also.

Fortunately the Z will have a 24-70 f2.8 by end of Q3 that will be used by most wedding shooters working with the Z and is IMHO a lot more useful than a 28-70, be it f2.0.

Cheers,
Bernard

Rado

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 247
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #257 on: January 11, 2019, 05:47:50 am »

I don't do video so I don't care if Canon offers usable 4K 8K or 19K. But I'd happily shoot with the 28-70 f2 zoom, it seems to be a great lens - sadly outside of my budget.
Logged

BernardLanguillier

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 13983
    • http://www.flickr.com/photos/bernardlanguillier/sets/
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #258 on: January 11, 2019, 07:53:50 am »

I don't do video so I don't care if Canon offers usable 4K 8K or 19K. But I'd happily shoot with the 28-70 f2 zoom, it seems to be a great lens - sadly outside of my budget.

Just out of curiosity, for what applications would you consider a 28-70mm f2.0 superior to a 24-70mm f2.8?

As far as I recall all the people I know who used to shoot with 28-70mm f2.8 zooms very quickly switched to the 24-70mm f2.8 after they became available because those 4mm make a huge difference for all the applications where you prefer to use a zoom over an f1.4 or f1.2 prime.

So I am a bit at a loss to understand how f2.0 changes that...

Cheers,
Bernard

kers

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4388
    • Pieter Kers
Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #259 on: January 11, 2019, 07:59:46 am »

... Personally I see way more use for a 28-70f2 than a $6,000 58 0.95 lens...
Comparing apples with peares?
I see the 58mm 0,95 as a technological statement - and a liberation for Nikon engineers to leave the small F-Bajonet making this possible.
The 28-70 f2 seems already possible for the DSLR- it is a pity a lot of Canon shooters can't use it without buying a Canon-R body.
In this i agree with Bernard that 24mm is a very nice focal length to have- one of my most favourite.
Logged
Pieter Kers
www.beeld.nu/la
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 [13] 14 15 ... 27   Go Up