Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?

[faberryman]

Price wise it sure is. I can walk into Costco today and pick up a rebel with lens for $500. If that low end camera market is wiped out...do you feel someone would plunk down $3,000 for their first camera?

Everyone has a phone with built in camera. I think there is some other motivation for buying your first camera than simply "graduating" from an iPhone.

[BernardLanguillier]

Everyone has a phone with built in camera. I think their is some other motivation for buying your first camera than simply "graduating" from an iPhone.

The thing is that an iPhone X or Pixel 3 typically takes more consistent and technically better pictures than a low end DSLR used in all auto mode.

For many customers it is experienced as a downgrade...

You do that once and then feel never again.

Cheers,
Bernard

[chez]

Everyone has a phone with built in camera. I think their is some other motivation for buying your first camera than simply "graduating" from an iPhone.

Yes...but do you think a $3,000 camera is the answer as the next step from a phone?

[faberryman]

Yes...but do you think a $3,000 camera is the answer as the next step from a phone?

There are certainly a lot of options available for a first camera.

[hogloff]

There are certainly a lot of options available for a first camera.

I believe we are discussing the scenario of the rebel level of cameras being taken out by phones. The next level...which is in the $2,000 and climbing would be the entry level.

[BernardLanguillier]

I believe we are discussing the scenario of the rebel level of cameras being taken out by phones. The next level...which is in the $2,000 and climbing would be the entry level.

There are options in between. Sony could do a killing if they improved the UI and lowered the price of the RX100 for instance.

I love my MkV, my wife is a lot less convinced by its level of usability that she finds plain awful.

Cheers,
Bernard

[hogloff]

There are options in between. Sony could do a killing if they improved the UI and lowered the price of the RX100 for instance.

I love my MkV, my wife is a lot less convinced by its level of usability that she finds plain awful.

Cheers,
Bernard

Well that's the thing. Sony stated they will focus on high end, high margin cameras...which makes total sense in a rapidly declining market. Nikon has done the same with their mirrorless release...same with Fuji and Canon.

When your revenue starts to drop...you better concentrate on product that makes you money in that declining revenue state.

[faberryman]

I believe we are discussing the scenario of the rebel level of cameras being taken out by phones. The next level...which is in the $2,000 and climbing would be the entry level.

There are a lot of good cameras above the Rebels before you get to $2000.

[Dan Wells]

I agree with Bernard and faberryman - saying "the market for Rebels, D3x00s and a5100s is being heavily cannibalized by phones " doesn't mean "the market for dedicated cameras is all over $2000". The options between $800 and $2000 are very, very interesting.

Seeing the casual shooters go to their phones may encourage someone to build even more of a "digital K1000" than we have now. It would emphasize great controls and feature high image quality (e.g. the ubiquitous Sony 24/26 MP APS-C sensor), trading "gee-whiz" features for a really solid basic camera. Sell it for $700-$800 with a good, if slow, lens.

The revenue in it is in that it can attract lots of people who are really interested in photography, but just starting out - and it can sit on the market for years...

[hogloff]

I agree with Bernard and faberryman - saying "the market for Rebels, D3x00s and a5100s is being heavily cannibalized by phones " doesn't mean "the market for dedicated cameras is all over $2000". The options between $800 and $2000 are very, very interesting.

Seeing the casual shooters go to their phones may encourage someone to build even more of a "digital K1000" than we have now. It would emphasize great controls and feature high image quality (e.g. the ubiquitous Sony 24/26 MP APS-C sensor), trading "gee-whiz" features for a really solid basic camera. Sell it for $700-$800 with a good, if slow, lens.

The revenue in it is in that it can attract lots of people who are really interested in photography, but just starting out - and it can sit on the market for years...

So you are trying to entice the gee wiz crowd with a plain Jane camera...good luck with that. I've seen how my 3 children embrace new technology and they all love the gee wiz features...no going back to some nestolgic camera...that ship has sailed.

[Denis de Gannes]

My observation is just reflecting on the original subject of the post.
Both producers have released an initial offering into this segment of the market which is dominated by a relative new entrant to the professional field of photography, who has created a significant impact.
It appears that Nikon has been the first to react and decide to enter the field of mirrorless interchangeable lens camera bodies. Their initial offering appears to be more mature in features and functions. Canon is in a catch up mode, however they are just out of the box and its just much to early as to who will triumph.
They have both been very competitive for several decades and each have significant following.
It is very surprising at the delay in their response.
Agreed the war has started, who is the winner, much to early to say. We only have "Beta" models to test.   

[BJL]

The thing is that an iPhone X or Pixel 3 typically takes more consistent and technically better pictures than a low end DSLR used in all auto mode.

For many customers it is experienced as a downgrade...
..

If true, then true for any ILC. Let’s instead look at people who want more than a phone because they (a) want the advantage of controls beyond full auto mode (b) want telephoto reach beyond wide–normal (before heavy cropping to few, small pixels) (c) want better low light/high shutter speed performance than the tiny lens of a phone can ever offer.

A lot will achieve big advantages in those areas with a $1000 kit, but not in 35mm format

[Dan Wells]

And want an image that reflects what was in front of them (possibly to edit in any way they desire - see the beautiful digital art of John Paul Caponigro, which starts as one or more photographs), rather than heavy-handed baked-in digital processing.

[hogloff]

If true, then true for any ILC. Let’s instead look at people who want more than a phone because they (a) want the advantage of controls beyond full auto mode (b) want telephoto reach beyond wide–normal (before heavy cropping to few, small pixels) (c) want better low light/high shutter speed performance than the tiny lens of a phone can ever offer.

A lot will achieve big advantages in those areas with a $1000 kit, but not in 35mm format

I guess the ultimate question is how large is this market? Will the people versed on the phone for photography and its ease of posting their images onto the net and the ever increasing abilities of these phone cameras ever want or need another device to take pictures?

One huge drive of new phones is their photography capabilities along with advanced image processing abilities...lots of R&D heading into phone photography.

[BJL]

I guess the ultimate question is how large is this market?

ILC sales give us a hint: a small fraction of the several billion phone-photographers, but still about ten million per year—and still with the c. $1000 kit buyers far more numerous than those willing to pay two or three times asthat much for the performance increment of an “entry level 35mm format” kit over the already impressive performance of the mainstream ILC formats

[BernardLanguillier]

https://photorumors.com/2018/12/28/2018-digital-camera-award-by-dc-watch/

The Z (Z6 + Z7) getting 2.5 times as many popular votes as the R in Japan for camera of the year award.

Cheers,
Bernard

[hogloff]

https://photorumors.com/2018/12/28/2018-digital-camera-award-by-dc-watch/

The Z (Z6 + Z7) getting 2.5 times as many popular votes as the R in Japan for camera of the year award.

Cheers,
Bernard

And the A7III still kicking ass. 

No wonder Sony didn't release anything for the Xmas season...it didn't need to.

[BernardLanguillier]

And the A7III still kicking ass. 

No wonder Sony didn't release anything for the Xmas season...it didn't need to.

Indeed.

But the Zs still get more total votes than the Sony by a wide margin.

Cheers,
Bernard

[hogloff]

Indeed.

But the Zs still get more total votes than the Sony by a wide margin.

Cheers,
Bernard

Yes, the new shiny toys get the most attention...obviously. Do you really think the Z6 is better than the A7R3 which did not even make the list...even your beloved D850 is missing. Must be a dog...right?

Popularity in a poll where it doesn't cost you anything is totally different than putting your money down. I'd love to see a breakdown like this by actual sales rather than an unanimous poll.

Really, meaningless numbers.

[BernardLanguillier]

Yes, the new shiny toys get the most attention...obviously. Do you really think the Z6 is better than the A7R3 which did not even make the list...even your beloved D850 is missing. Must be a dog...right?

Popularity in a poll where it doesn't cost you anything is totally different than putting your money down. I'd love to see a breakdown like this by actual sales rather than an unanimous poll.

Really, meaningless numbers.

I don’t think they are meaningless at all if you try to understand them.

They are focusing on cameras newly introduced in 2018 I believe.

They very clearly convey the lukewarm welcome of the Canon R.

A few months back a majority of observers were deeply convinced that Canon would hit it out of the park with their new super strategic mirrorless offering.

And Canon marketing is still desperately trying to convince the world that they have... 

The reality is vastly different.

As far as the comparison of Nikon to Sony (topics that you brought in), I see the a7rIII as the best mirrorless body for applications where AF matters and the Z7 as the best for all other applications, including landscape, still, architecture,... and the R is... best at nothing... just a mirrorless platform for Canon users still hoping that their heavy investment in excellent glass will some day be rewarded by the release of cameras able to let them express fully their talent.

If you insist on adding DSLRs to this discussion then the D850 is indeed IMHO the best all rounder on the market.

I was reading yesterday discussions at FM about a world famous bird photographer having moved to Nikon who was providing very detailed info about how the D5 (and D850) were ahead of the 1DxII (the 5DIV being far behind) in terms of auto-focus and about how happy he was about the Canon until he found out how much better the D5 is. 

I feel for the many talented photographers who went the Canon route because it was the obvious one and now find themselves in the uncomfortable position to somehow have to defend a brand that has consistently let them down compared to competition for nearly 10 long years. And now Sony is adding another layer of frustration.

Cheers,
Bernard