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Author Topic: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.  (Read 107952 times)

RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #960 on: July 08, 2018, 03:49:34 pm »

Yes, like multi-decadal trends (which tends to flatten out the solar-cycles, which makes the trends easier to see).

Cheers,
Bart

In other words, amplify the baloney.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #961 on: July 08, 2018, 03:57:26 pm »

Don't you know that the hockey stick ruse has been dispelled a looooong time ago?

No Frans, tell us all about it:
http://www.temperaturerecord.org/
and
https://www.skepticalscience.com/broken-hockey-stick.htm

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: July 08, 2018, 04:05:23 pm by BartvanderWolf »
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #962 on: July 08, 2018, 03:58:44 pm »

In other words, amplify the baloney.

Averaging does not amplify (in fact it does the opposite), so I'm at a loss to what you mean.

Cheers,
Bart
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #963 on: July 08, 2018, 04:09:58 pm »

...so I'm at a loss to what you mean.

GIGO

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #964 on: July 08, 2018, 04:44:58 pm »

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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #965 on: July 08, 2018, 05:05:21 pm »

So, if the trend was a global cooling before we spoiled it with the industrial revolution, we might have slowed down another ice age, after all. Yay!

Chairman Bill

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #966 on: July 08, 2018, 05:22:27 pm »

So, if the trend was a global cooling before we spoiled it with the industrial revolution, we might have slowed down another ice age, after all. Yay!



Oh, for heaven's sake ...

Ray

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #967 on: July 08, 2018, 08:05:07 pm »

Yes, but they're individual, isolated events, notable for being exceptions. Hence the need to look at trends instead.

Isolated? Surely as a psychologist you would understand that everything is connected. If a butterfly flaps its wings in South America, a storm might eventually result in Europe. (Not to be taken literally, of course. It's just an exaggeration to get the point across that everything is connected in some way and to some degree.)  ;)

The impression I get from reading that detailed history of the weather in Great Britain, is that the hot or cold, and dry or wet spells are not exceptions but are fairly regular occurrences which continue to the present day, despite the slight, average warming trend that is claimed to be caused by CO2 emissions.

Here's an example of the 4 years from 1651-1654, a period which was broadly within the Little Ice Age.

Four successive fine (i.e. often dry / hot) summers but that of 1651 appears to have been 'fine' only across England; Scotland though is specifically included for the other years in the various chronicles. 1651 in particular across England (only?) was noted as being dry with a 'scorching' summer - a 'great' drought with excessive heat. Kent is specifically mentioned (continental influence). It may be that only the southern half of Britain was so favoured, as there are notes that in Scotland, this year (1651) was subject to even 'greater dearth' than the preceding year. In 1652, the summer of this year was noted for 'extraordinary drought' across the whole of Scotland, with high temperatures and little rain - great impact upon agricultural production, both good and bad; in England, 1652 saw a good harvest, particularly as regards fruit. The summer of 1653 was also described as being one of 'great drought & excessive heat' across England. From October 1653 until 21st March 1654 (i.e. across nearly the entire 'winter-half' of the year), the weather was apparently benign, mild & dry; likened to a 'second summer'. In Scotland, the extended winter period 1653-1654 was notably dry, which of course would have been a disaster for autumn/winter-sown crops. The summer of 1654 was 'dry & scorching'. Although drought would have impacted on some arable crops (and farm animals depending upon the feed), other agriculture, such as fruit growers, had a bumper harvest during 1654. From Edinburgh & Fife, great lack of water (wells drying up), with lesser problems in the west.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2018, 08:13:41 pm by Ray »
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #968 on: July 08, 2018, 08:33:00 pm »

Isolated? Surely as a psychologist you would understand that everything is connected.

[Snipped for brevity ...]

Quote
Here's an example of the 4 years from 1651-1654, ...

YES, isolated.

You exhibit a typical denier's cherry-picking mode of operation.
Not much of a challenge for a psychologist, I'd imagine.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: July 08, 2018, 08:40:40 pm by BartvanderWolf »
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Chairman Bill

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #969 on: July 09, 2018, 03:46:24 am »

[Snipped for brevity ...]

YES, isolated.

You exhibit a typical denier's cherry-picking mode of operation.
Not much of a challenge for a psychologist, I'd imagine.

Cheers,
Bart

Quite. Isolated bits of data. Physicists, geologists, meteorologists & climatologists have been examining the data across millennia.

Ray

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #970 on: July 09, 2018, 05:14:06 am »

YES, isolated.

You exhibit a typical denier's cherry-picking mode of operation.
Not much of a challenge for a psychologist, I'd imagine.

One observation that contributes to my skepticism about the validity of the AGW hypothesis, is the quality and rationality of the arguments presented by those who support and believe in the hypothesis.

For example, on this forum, I provided a link to a very detailed record of past weather events in Great Britain, going back as far as 4000 BC. In more recent centuries, such as the 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th century, the record summarized the weather for almost every single year in each century.

The detail presented would fill a large book, or would represent a 6 hour video, or maybe 10 hours, depending on how fast the presenter spoke.

So to give readers an idea of the sorts of details and descriptions that are presented on the site, I extracted an example which covered a four year period in the middle of the 17th century, and which also revealed the limitations of the available evidence, because the records for Scotland during part of that 4 year period were lacking.

So now I am accused of cherry picking, even though the weather during those 4 years was not conducive to the growth of cherries.  ;D

However, since I'm a rational and naturally inquisitive person, I'd like to learn how I could have better chosen an extract as an example, which wouldn't have resulted in the criticism 'typical denier's cherry-picking mode of operation'.

Stretching my imagination, the only completely unbiased method I can think of, would be to print out every description of every weather summary on that website, which would be several hundred, or a thousand or more, fold up the printed paper for each description, place them all in a box, then extract one of them, as in a lottery.

The result could be a very brief and banal description of average weather for a particular year, or it could be the one I actually chose.

What method would you recommend, Bart?
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jeremyrh

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #971 on: July 09, 2018, 05:21:20 am »

You could start by getting a clue about the difference between climate and weather, and follow up with the difference between data and anecdotes.

Get back to us when you've got those sorted.
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Ray

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #972 on: July 09, 2018, 07:47:18 am »

You could start by getting a clue about the difference between climate and weather, and follow up with the difference between data and anecdotes.

Get back to us when you've got those sorted.

As I wrote to Bart, my skepticism about climate change is reinforced by the inane comments by many people who support the AGW hypothesis.

Your above comment adds to that. How on earth could you possible think that I don't know the difference between weather and climate?  :o

In post #944, the moderator, Jeremy, wrote:
"We had a similar, although more severe, heatwave in 1976. I remember it well, as I was taking my A-levels at the time and conditions in the examination hall were less than pleasant. There was a widespread drought, with water supplies to homes cut off and standpipes the only source. The government appointed a "minister for drought", who did a rain dance; within a short time half the country was flooded.

That was more than 40 years ago. Beware of confusing weather and climate."


I responded with a post beginning, "Good point, Jeremy. A major problem that causes so many people, especially younger people, to be alarmed about extreme weather events, from a climate perspective, is their lack of personal memories of similar events in the past."

Of course I understand that climate is an average of weather over a particular period. Climate is an average of weather over a 10 year period, a 20 year period, a 50 year period, a 100 year period, a thousand year period, a million year period, and so on.

Whatever period you choose to examine, the climate will be different, within that period of time compared to another period of time, just as the weather will likely be different in the shorter period of time, such as each year.

Of course there's a difference between precise, instrumental data, and anecdotes. But that doesn't mean that anecdotes, personal accounts by observers, newspaper reports, and so on, are not true. They are just not necessarily as precise as instrumental records, although sometimes they might be more precise, as in the case of a thermometer at an airport or urban environment producing an exaggerated reading due to the Urban Heat Island effect.

If the Thames in London freezes over, during a particularly cold winter, we know from anecdotes that the temperature must be below 0 degrees C. However, thermometers are required to measure precisely how much below 0 degrees C the temperature was.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #973 on: July 09, 2018, 12:01:15 pm »

As I wrote to Bart, my skepticism about climate change is reinforced by the inane comments by many people who support the AGW hypothesis.

It's not a hypothesis. The Carbon isotope ratio proves that the warming is caused by CO2 that originates from old fossil plant sources and the Carbon / Oxygen ratio shows that it comes from the burning of that fossil fuel. These are facts, measurable facts, whether you choose to deny them or not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PrrTk6DqzE&t=13s

Our land 'management' doesn't help the process of recapturing that Carbon either, and while the oceans continue the slow process of acidification by absorbing almost half of that CO2 from the air, the increasing water temperature cannot absorb as much as colder water could.

Cheers,
Bart
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #974 on: July 09, 2018, 12:28:26 pm »

In the comments section just below Bart's referenced YouTube video, this:

I have dedicated my life to debunking global warming hoaxers. The hoaxers are religiously liberal. Liberal fundamentalism is responsible for most of the world's suffering. Liberals have invaded science for their own political gains with global warming hoaxing.

How do you counter this kind of thinking?  Is there any reason to even try?
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jeremyrh

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #975 on: July 09, 2018, 01:32:05 pm »

As I wrote to Bart, my skepticism about climate change is reinforced by the inane comments by many people who support the AGW hypothesis.

Your above comment adds to that. How on earth could you possible think that I don't know the difference between weather and climate?  :o

Because, amongst other things, you wrote stuff like this:

Quote
Of course there's a difference between precise, instrumental data, and anecdotes. But that doesn't mean that anecdotes, personal accounts by observers, newspaper reports, and so on, are not true. They are just not necessarily as precise as instrumental records, although sometimes they might be more precise, as in the case of a thermometer at an airport or urban environment producing an exaggerated reading due to the Urban Heat Island effect.

where you missed the whole point. An anecdote is a single data point, dubious in itself (as you managed to grasp) and also dubious if it is selected by an observer and not forming part of a consistent suite of measurements. Bart has presented such data countless times but you don't seem to have got the message.  Peter has it right when he says "How do you counter this kind of thinking?  Is there any reason to even try?"


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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #976 on: July 09, 2018, 02:44:18 pm »

In the comments section just below Bart's referenced YouTube video, this:

I have dedicated my life to debunking global warming hoaxers. The hoaxers are religiously liberal. Liberal fundamentalism is responsible for most of the world's suffering. Liberals have invaded science for their own political gains with global warming hoaxing.

How do you counter this kind of thinking?  Is there any reason to even try?

You might enjoy the book Fantasyland by Kurt Andersen https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/209776/fantasyland-by-kurt-andersen/9780812978902/.
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Robert

Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #977 on: July 09, 2018, 03:11:38 pm »

You might enjoy the book Fantasyland by Kurt Andersen https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/209776/fantasyland-by-kurt-andersen/9780812978902/.

Another liberal's belief that only liberals know the Truth.  The rest are Deplorables who live in flyover country. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #978 on: July 09, 2018, 03:12:38 pm »

Hillary must have gotten advice from Anderson which is why she lost.

Peter McLennan

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #979 on: July 09, 2018, 03:25:07 pm »

Another liberal's belief that only liberals know the Truth.  The rest are Deplorables who live in flyover country.

You’ve read it?
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