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Author Topic: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.  (Read 33017 times)

John Camp

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #580 on: June 12, 2018, 08:00:24 PM »

More unfounded assumptions. I'm too lazy to look up the heat-related Excessive Mortality figures, so feel free to do that yourself.

Besides, you're missing the point. Correlation does not imply causation. It's not necessarily the temperature alone.

Cheers,
Bart

I'm basically on your side, as all sane people are, but I have to interject that correlation DOES imply causation, it just doesn't prove or demonstrate it. But one of the first things you do when looking for a cause of a particular effect is to look for correlations; the cause may well be found among them. In fact how else would you search for a cause? Wander around randomly knocking on tree trunks and shouting at clouds? :-)
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Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #581 on: June 12, 2018, 08:54:31 PM »

More unfounded assumptions. I'm too lazy to look up the heat-related Excessive Mortality figures, so feel free to do that yourself.

Besides, you're missing the point. Correlation does not imply causation. It's not necessarily the temperature alone.

Cheers,
Bart

Bart, it was you who claimed they could be dying from, quote: "reduced resistance due to lack of healthy food, lack of exposure to daylight, are relatively sensitive to respiratory issues combined with dry air, or have cardiovascular problems and difficulties in regulating the body heat temperature, the list goes on?"

These problems are alleviated by warmer temperatures.  So there is a correlation between warmer temperatures and the alleviation of these problems and deaths.  So now you're taking back your original statement that supports the thesis.  Now you're saying there's no causation while before you were claiming causation but with the opposite results.  You can't have it both ways.  It's this kind of thing that makes skeptics like myself question supporters of global warming and the negative results of such changes as being nothing more than a hyperbolic political position. 

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #582 on: June 12, 2018, 09:48:01 PM »

I'm basically on your side...

Please don't*, you are too intelligent for that :)

*at least in regard to the effects of cold weather on mortality.

LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #584 on: June 13, 2018, 04:17:01 PM »

These are staggering numbers - sea levels rising by 0.5mm per year, accelerating to 1 m in 50 years

Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #585 on: June 13, 2018, 04:22:37 PM »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/06/13/antarctic-ice-loss-has-tripled-in-a-decade-if-that-continues-we-are-in-serious-trouble/?utm_term=.9836644f1f74

The scientists in the article say the Antarctica is melting enough ice and snow per year causing a rise of sea level of around  half a millimeter per year.  Which means that in 50 years, 25mm or around 1 inch of sea rise.  Remind me to buy rubber boots in a few decades if I'm still alive.

I'm curious how much snow and ice were in the Antarctica between the last two ice ages? 

Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #586 on: June 13, 2018, 04:30:43 PM »

These are staggering numbers - sea levels rising by 0.5mm per year, accelerating to 1 m in 50 years
Les, the scientists admitted that would require a tripling of melt every decade.  They acknowledge having no proof even admitting that it won't continue at that rate.  We all like to slow down when we pass road accidents and gawk.  But let's not look for unproven, worse case scenarios.  I do that every time I go to the doctor.  So far, fortunately, my predictions have been too dire. 

LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #587 on: June 13, 2018, 04:31:35 PM »

The scientists in the article say the Antarctica is melting enough ice and snow per year causing a rise of sea level of around  half a millimeter per year.  Which means that in 50 years, 25mm or around 1 inch of sea rise.  Remind me to buy rubber boots in a few decades if I'm still alive.

I'm curious how much snow and ice were in the Antarctica between the last two ice ages?

Alan, many of these changes are not linear. There will be years with less melting, and years with more melting. And it's not only adding more water. As the masses of ice diminish, so it will the cooling effct, oceans will warm up, increase the water volume, and the sea levels will rise dramatically higher. The scientists estimate doubling of sea rise levels every decade. In worst case scenario they will triple each decade.

LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #588 on: June 13, 2018, 04:38:16 PM »

Les, the scientists admitted that would require a tripling of melt every decade.  They acknowledge having no proof even admitting that it won't continue at that rate.  We all like to slow down when we pass road accidents and gawk.  But let's not look for unproven, worse case scenarios.  I do that every time I go to the doctor.  So far, fortunately, my predictions have been too dire.

1 m rise was based on doubling the melting every decade. Tripling of the melting would reach the 1 meter water level much quicker.
As to the comparison between the climate scientists and doctors, based on my personal observations I believe that the scientists' prognosis and recommendations are more reliable. They also read and write more.   

BartvanderWolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #589 on: June 13, 2018, 05:15:39 PM »

Bart, it was you who claimed they could be dying from, quote: "reduced resistance due to lack of healthy food, lack of exposure to daylight, are relatively sensitive to respiratory issues combined with dry air, or have cardiovascular problems and difficulties in regulating the body heat temperature, the list goes on?"

These problems are alleviated by warmer temperatures.

To spell it out more clearly, obviously there is some sort of a correlation with temperature, but it is not the temperature that is causing the Excess Winter Mortality. It is, amongst various other factors e.g. Influenza which thrives in conditions that people have reduced resistance and  interact and stay indoors more, have an irritated respiratory tract (due to wrong heating practices), so Influenza can lead to additional pneumonia, housing that is inadequately insulated etc. that leads to that dry air (and additionally wastes a lot of heat) that kills a lot of extra people.

So in that specific case it's the influenza versus EWM correlation that explains the actual cause and effect. And a lot can be done to improve the situation without heating up the entire environment during the whole year round (which cause all sorts of even more unwanted effects, like pests, flooding, Droughts, social unrest, wars, and even more global warming).

As the Scandinavian example shows, fewer EWM cases can be achieved, and more effectively, without increasing global temperature warming with its ill side effects.

Besides, what effect do you think that a 3 degree Celsius global temperature rise by the end of the century has on Excess Winter Mortality? If any, it can be achieved much faster and more efficiently, and without the negative effects that global warming has, by learning from and doing what the Scandinavians do.

Cheers,
Bart
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Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #590 on: June 13, 2018, 05:20:48 PM »

To spell it out more clearly, obviously there is some sort of a correlation with temperature, but it is not the temperature that is causing the Excess Winter Mortality. It is, amongst various other factors e.g. Influenza which thrives in conditions that people have reduced resistance and  interact and stay indoors more, have an irritated respiratory tract (due to wrong heating practices), so Influenza can lead to additional pneumonia, housing that is inadequately insulated etc. that leads to that dry air (and additionally wastes a lot of heat) that kills a lot of extra people.

So in that specific case it's the influenza versus EWM correlation that explains the actual cause and effect. And a lot can be done to improve the situation without heating up the entire environment during the whole year round (which cause all sorts of even more unwanted effects, like pests, flooding, Droughts, social unrest, wars, and even more global warming).

As the Scandinavian example shows, fewer EWM cases can be achieved, and more effectively, without increasing global temperature warming with its ill side effects.

Besides, what effect do you think that a 3 degree Celsius global temperature rise by the end of the century has on Excess Winter Mortality? If any, it can be achieved much faster and more efficiently, and without the negative effects that global warming has, by learning from and doing what the Scandinavians do.

Cheers,
Bart
I suppose we can have our children marry Scandinavians so their children can better handle the weather.  Sounds like more fun that installing solar panels. :)

BartvanderWolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #591 on: June 13, 2018, 05:24:55 PM »

I'm basically on your side, as all sane people are, but I have to interject that correlation DOES imply causation, it just doesn't prove or demonstrate it.

Hi John,

I agree that there seems to be 'some sort of correlation', but we could also say that a similar correlation is there with the average amount of daylight, i.e. shorter days. But as I tried to explain to Alan K., it's not that which causes the EWM rates. And it can be proven by comparing with the Scandinavians, who have even shorter days and lower average temperatures but also lower EWM rates.

So it makes no sense to raise temperatures as a 'solution', if it is not causing that problem.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: June 13, 2018, 05:42:48 PM by BartvanderWolf »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #592 on: June 13, 2018, 06:48:57 PM »

Hi John,

I agree that there seems to be 'some sort of correlation', but we could also say that a similar correlation is there with the average amount of daylight, i.e. shorter days. But as I tried to explain to Alan K., it's not that which causes the EWM rates. And it can be proven by comparing with the Scandinavians, who have even shorter days and lower average temperatures but also lower EWM rates.

So it makes no sense to raise temperatures as a 'solution', if it is not causing that problem.

Cheers,
Bart
There's certainly more proof that warmer weather preserves more lives then warmer weather is caused by CO2.


Why do you keep pointing to Scandinavians?   They've lived in the cold so long their genetic makeup has adapted to the colder weather over many generations.  Just like their blue eyes and blonde hair.  However, most people are not Scandinavian.  They don't have time for DNA changes.  So they just will live longer and do better if it warmed up a littler.  If you don't believe me, ask a Canadian like Les what he thinks?  :)

LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #593 on: June 13, 2018, 07:39:41 PM »

Most Canadians got shocked and irritated by the recent blow of hot air in Malbaie, Quebec over the last weekend. It blew in from south but fortunately didn't linger long enough in Canada.

Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #594 on: June 14, 2018, 12:47:01 AM »

Les, What about warmer weather in the winter?

Chairman Bill

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #595 on: June 14, 2018, 01:14:21 AM »

Because I don't like playing chess with pigeons, I'll just post this here & not comment further - 

"Ice in the Antarctic is melting at a record-breaking rate and the subsequent sea rises could have catastrophic consequences for cities around the world, according to two new studies.

A report led by scientists in the UK and US found the rate of melting from the Antarctic ice sheet has accelerated threefold in the last five years and is now vanishing faster than at any previously recorded time.

A separate study warns that unless urgent action is taken in the next decade the melting ice could contribute more than 25cm to a total global sea level rise of more than a metre by 2070. This could lead eventually to the collapse of the entire west Antarctic ice sheet, and around 3.5m of sea-level rise.
"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/13/antarctic-ice-melting-faster-than-ever-studies-show

LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #596 on: June 14, 2018, 01:20:39 AM »

Les, What about warmer weather in the winter?
In Canada or Antarctica?
This winter was bitterly cold in Ontario. In January it got so cold, that after two days of freezing, I grabbed my shorts and a few sandwiches and drove to Florida. It took me another two days until I got to Georgia that I thawed out. Usually as I drive on the i77 straight south, the outside temperature sensor shows about every 100 miles about 1-2 degrees warmer air, but on that drive I was already in Virginia and it was still below zero (Fahrenheit). I drove from my home 1500km straight to Orangeburg, SC, and they still had a fresh dusting of snow on the ground.
 
It must have been 30C (86F) in Toronto today. About the same as in Miami. That could be the reason the Toronto Zoo decided to ship out a young polar bear to Winnipeg.

Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #597 on: June 14, 2018, 01:34:11 AM »

In Canada or Antarctica?
This winter was bitterly cold in Ontario. In January it got so cold, that after two days of freezing, I grabbed my shorts and a few sandwiches and drove to Florida. It took me another two days until I got to Georgia that I thawed out. Usually as I drive on the i77 straight south, the outside temperature sensor shows about every 100 miles about 1-2 degrees warmer air, but on that drive I was already in Virginia and it was still below zero (Fahrenheit). I drove from my home 1500km straight to Orangeburg, SC, and they still had a fresh dusting of snow on the ground.
 
It must have been 30C (86F) in Toronto today. About the same as in Miami. That could be the reason the Toronto Zoo decided to ship out a young polar bear to Winnipeg.

Something you just said that reminded me I was thinking about it a few months ago.   But I forgot and never mentioned it here.  And that's the fact that it's 1-2 degree warmer for every 100 miles you travel south. So if you lived in NYC and suddenly global warming increased average temperatures 2-4 degrees as if you lived in let's say North Carolina, people in NYC would adapt and there would be no harm done.  You'd have to use more A/C but warmer winters would mean less oil or natural gas to heat.  More importantly, we as humans would do just fine.  We'd  acclimate and adapt. 

So if you applied the two degrees across the world, people would adapt as well there too.  Why not the rest of nature?  Why do we feel that birds, and cows, and trees, and ferns and polar bears and everything else won't adapt too?  If New Yorkers can move to North Carolina and do well, why not everything else?  After all, people 200 miles south of us are already experiencing global warming.  We just have to wait a few decades to have the experience too.

LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #598 on: June 14, 2018, 02:01:21 AM »

Two degrees temperature difference can be tolerable in a certain range, and deadly in another range.

As mentioned somewhere else, on my Alaska trip some years ago I swam at the Chena Hot Springs in a small hot lake where normally the water temperature is kept around 106F (41C). They mix natural hot water intake (165F) with cold water from another spring. 106F can be tolerated for a brief wading in the lake, but they don't recommend swimming. On my second day there, their cold water pump didn't work, and the lake temperature reached about 110F (4 degrees difference in Fahrenheit and 2 degrees in Celsius). At that temperature the water was too hot just to enter the pool.

I operate best in a rather narrow temperature range. Somewhere between 18 and 25C.

Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #599 on: June 14, 2018, 02:06:12 AM »

Because I don't like playing chess with pigeons, I'll just post this here & not comment further - 

"Ice in the Antarctic is melting at a record-breaking rate and the subsequent sea rises could have catastrophic consequences for cities around the world, according to two new studies.

A report led by scientists in the UK and US found the rate of melting from the Antarctic ice sheet has accelerated threefold in the last five years and is now vanishing faster than at any previously recorded time.

A separate study warns that unless urgent action is taken in the next decade the melting ice could contribute more than 25cm to a total global sea level rise of more than a metre by 2070. This could lead eventually to the collapse of the entire west Antarctic ice sheet, and around 3.5m of sea-level rise.
"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/13/antarctic-ice-melting-faster-than-ever-studies-show
What "urgent action" can possibly be done?  If CO2 is the culprit, it will continue to increase because the population is increasing.  America pulled out of Paris and China and India do not have to start meeting any CO2 reductions until 2030. China (30%), America (14%) and India (7%) contribute about half the world's total CO2 emissions.  Even Europe is not meeting their Paris commitments.  Meanwhile, the population is expanding and the people want to use more carbon, not less, as they enter the middle classes more and more. 

The idea that somehow, we are going to stop the glaciers, ice and snow from melting in the Antarctica is a pipe dream.  Better off investing in a rubber boot factory. 
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