Global Cooling. The sky is falling.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

More about the ticks moving northwards.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3556940/lone-star-ticks-that-cause-red-meat-allergies-are-on-their-way-to-canada/

Yes, these are worrisome developments, thanks to global warming.

We see similar things in my country, where e.g. the aggressive Asian Tiger Mosquitoes (which carries dengue and chikungunya fever) have been spotted at latitudes (52 N) similar to the USA/Canada border. Here's a picture of what to expect in Europe:



Aggressive Asian tiger mosquito invades Europe:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3708019/

But that's just one of the many unwanted effects of global warming. There are also other effects that will have very costly consequences.

"Hurricanes are moving more slowly than they used to

Record shows a trend that could mean higher storm rainfall totals."
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/06/hurricanes-are-moving-more-slowly-than-they-used-to/

While the connection between the slower speed of these weather systems is not necessarily directly linked to global warming, yet (!), the larger amounts of precipitation are a result of the warmer air, and the combination predicts trouble for the affected regions.

Cheers,
Bart

[LesPalenik]

Yes, I read about the slower moving hurricanes with a lot of rain. Most likely, that will affect mainly the southern and eastern parts of USA.

In Canada, just this past weekend, we witnessed a brief instance of the hurricane Trump. Although this violent event didn't last long, it created a lot of chaos and as it was leaving Canada, it blew up unexpectedly among other things even the G7 meeting. Some observers stated that this time the origin of this disaster could have been as far as in Russia.

[RSL]

"Skeeters and rainstorms and Trumps, Oh my!" "Skeeters and rainstorms and Trumps, Oh my!" Sounds like Dorothy and her three buddies on their way to see the wizard.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Yes, I read about the slower moving hurricanes with a lot of rain. Most likely, that will affect mainly the southern and eastern parts of USA.

We'll see what this Atlantic Hurricane season brings, although climate looks at longer-term trends.
South-East Asia also gets it share of tropical cyclones.

In Canada, just this past weekend, we witnessed a brief instance of the hurricane Trump. Although this violent event didn't last long, it created a lot of chaos and as it was leaving Canada, it blew up unexpectedly among other things even the G7 meeting. Some observers stated that this time the origin of this disaster could have been as far as in Russia.

LOL,  lots of hot air indeed.

Cheers,
Bart

[Peter McLennan]

"Skeeters and rainstorms and Trumps, Oh my!" "Skeeters and rainstorms and Trumps, Oh my!" Sounds like Dorothy and her three buddies on their way to see the wizard.

We’ll see how flippant you are when you contract dengue fever, Russ.  I had it in Asia, and it ain’t pretty.

[Alan Klein]

I don't doubt that this mosquito will extend it's range if it continues to warm up.  But, how many older people won't die because older people die more in severe winters.  Moderating winters will help not only help deer ticks and mosquitoes live longer and expand their range, but also deer, white footed mice and humans.  The point is that climate change has good and bad effects.  Humans in particular have always done better in warmer weather.  In fact if it wasn't for clothes that modern man has developed, we wouldn't even be living in those areas that were also not good for the mosquito. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

My kind of fever:

[LesPalenik]

My kind of fever:

Hopefully, not as deadly as the other kind.

http://ypradio.org/post/yellow-fever-encroaches-megacities-straining-global-vaccine-supply#stream/0

[LesPalenik]

I don't doubt that this mosquito will extend it's range if it continues to warm up.  But, how many older people won't die because older people die more in severe winters.  Moderating winters will help not only help deer ticks and mosquitoes live longer and expand their range, but also deer, white footed mice and humans.  The point is that climate change has good and bad effects.  Humans in particular have always done better in warmer weather.  In fact if it wasn't for clothes that modern man has developed, we wouldn't even be living in those areas that were also not good for the mosquito.

Absolutely right, something good always comes from something bad. In case of the Lone Star tick and red meat allergy, this could lead to a reduced read meat consumption and also to reduced cow population.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/06/tick-bite-meat-allergy-spreading-spd/

 

[RSL]

We’ll see how flippant you are when you contract dengue fever, Russ.  I had it in Asia, and it ain’t pretty.

Dengue fever was a problem at Ubon in Thailand when I was there, Peter. There had been a mass outbreak shortly before I arrived and I know it ain't pretty. I was lucky enough to have it pass me by. But you're making some pretty far-ranging assumptions about the spread of the stuff. Or at least you're accepting the word of those making far-ranging assumptions.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

I don't doubt that this mosquito will extend it's range if it continues to warm up.  But, how many older people won't die because older people die more in severe winters.

Time to put this simplistic idea to the test with some science and rational thought ...

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jan/20/older-person-dying-winter-fuel-poverty

"Weather seems to be a minor factor in explaining these deaths. Across Europe, England and Wales have some of the highest rates of excess mortality in winter months. All Nordic countries have far lower winter mortality rates, despite much harsher weather. Norway’s rate is a quarter that of England and Wales, while Finland reports no difference in mortality rates between the summer and winter months. In contrast, Spanish and Portuguese climates are milder than Britain’s, yet excess winter deaths are far higher."

"Of course, fuel poverty isn’t the only reason for excess winter deaths. The main problem with these statistics is that the measure itself is simplistic. The myriad factors that exacerbate illness, vulnerability or susceptibility aren’t collated. Inequality levels, access to hospitals and social care, loneliness and poverty worsen physical and mental health, and increase people’s vulnerability to dying during the winter months."

And there is this more in depth source:
"What causes excess winter mortality?"
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2016to2017provisionaland2015to2016final#what-causes-excess-winter-mortality

A couple of degrees milder winters is not the solution, but hey, some people seem to prefer to die from tropical decease, than to isolate their house better, wear more suitable clothing, and save on heating expense ...

Cheers,
Bart

[LesPalenik]

Not only people, even other mammals can suffer during unseasonally cold winters. Surprisingly, also in subtropical regions.
This year’s cold snap in January killed 35 of Florida’s manatees - five times as many as last January.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article198194079.html

[Alan Klein]

Not only people, even other mammals can suffer during unseasonally cold winters. Surprisingly, also in subtropical regions.
This year’s cold snap in January killed 35 of Florida’s manatees - five times as many as last January.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article198194079.html

You're articles of signs of global cooling will upset Bart.   Stop it.   

[Alan Klein]

Time to put this simplistic idea to the test with some science and rational thought ...

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jan/20/older-person-dying-winter-fuel-poverty

"Weather seems to be a minor factor in explaining these deaths. Across Europe, England and Wales have some of the highest rates of excess mortality in winter months. All Nordic countries have far lower winter mortality rates, despite much harsher weather. Norway’s rate is a quarter that of England and Wales, while Finland reports no difference in mortality rates between the summer and winter months. In contrast, Spanish and Portuguese climates are milder than Britain’s, yet excess winter deaths are far higher."

"Of course, fuel poverty isn’t the only reason for excess winter deaths. The main problem with these statistics is that the measure itself is simplistic. The myriad factors that exacerbate illness, vulnerability or susceptibility aren’t collated. Inequality levels, access to hospitals and social care, loneliness and poverty worsen physical and mental health, and increase people’s vulnerability to dying during the winter months."

And there is this more in depth source:
"What causes excess winter mortality?"
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2016to2017provisionaland2015to2016final#what-causes-excess-winter-mortality

A couple of degrees milder winters is not the solution, but hey, some people seem to prefer to die from tropical decease, than to isolate their house better, wear more suitable clothing, and save on heating expense ...

Cheers,
Bart

Warmer winters will also reduce the amount of carbon fuel needed to heat homes.  Less schmutz and less CO2.  You'll be able to open your windows and breathe clean, cooler air.  Double winner. 

In any case, I can't imagine Americans or Europeans thinking, "Gee, I better not open my windows.  I might get dengue fever." 


There are other advantages.  A couple of degrees warmer during the winter means the roads freeze up less often.  The reduced amount of automobile deaths and injuries has to be considerable worldwide.  The point is everyone is cherry picking outcomes to fit their political stance.  The media never discusses the positives causing people like me to feel there whole thing is biased.  If you want people to get on board with climate change incentives, present all the evidence in a fair and unbiased way.  Then maybe you'll get more converts.


In the meanwhile, less and less people are caring about climate change nor will governments spend real money on it, just enough to make them look politically acceptable.  No one's discussing global warming in America since Trump pulled out of Paris except the few who still have a fever about it (no pun intended).

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Time to put this simplistic idea to the test with some science and rational thought ...
...

A couple of degrees milder winters is not the solution, but hey, some people seem to prefer to die from tropical decease, than to isolate their house better, wear more suitable clothing, and save on heating expense ...

Yes, indeed, some people seem to prefer to have less money than other people. Sheesh! Seriously, Bart!?

The underlying logic in the stats and statements that you quoted is so far from a rational thought that it is mind boggling!

Southern European countries have a higher rate of winter deaths than northern ones!? And that is a proof that it is not low-temperature related? Really!? Who would have thought? Harsh winters are the norm in the north, and an aberration in the south. When something is the norm, you prepare for it. When I was living in Barcelona, a vast number of older apartments did not have any heating provisions. The same with some houses here in Florida.

All other factors but temperature are irrelevant. Loneliness, social safety net, inequality, etc. are the same all year long. However, unexpected, unprepared-for lower temperatures make poverty and illness harder to survive.
                                       

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Southern European countries have a higher rate of winter deaths than northern ones!? And that is a proof that it is not low-temperature related? Really!?

You disappoint me with another strawman's argument, Slobodan. All that it shows is that Alan's premise is false. Temperature alone is not sufficient to explain the Excessive Winter Mortality (EWM). So higher temperatures are not the solution either.

Cheers,
Bart

[Alan Klein]

Cold weather kills far more people than hot weather
Date:May 20, 2015
Source:The Lancet
Summary:Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings also reveal that deaths due to moderately hot or cold weather substantially exceed those resulting from extreme heat waves or cold spells.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150520193831.htm

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Cold weather kills far more people than hot weather
Date:May 20, 2015
Source:The Lancet
Summary:Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings also reveal that deaths due to moderately hot or cold weather substantially exceed those resulting from extreme heat waves or cold spells.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150520193831.htm

And not a word about Influenza, to name only one variable of many in explaining/understanding the number of people who die during colder weather.

Correlation does not imply causation.

They do not only die more often because it's colder (older people die more often anyway ...), but maybe they also have reduced resistance due to lack of healthy food, lack of exposure to daylight, are relatively sensitive to respiratory issues combined with dry air, or have cardiovascular problems and difficulties in regulating the body heat temperature, the list goes on?

That's why one should not look at mortality alone, but in particular look at Excess Winter Mortality, and its multiple possible causes. Cold alone does not seem to be an adequate explanation, especially given that Scandinavian people have much lower EWM rates.

Cheers,
Bart

[Alan Klein]

And not a word about Influenza, to name only one variable of many in explaining/understanding the number of people who die during colder weather.

Correlation does not imply causation.

They do not only die more often because it's colder (older people die more often anyway ...), but maybe they also have reduced resistance due to lack of healthy food, lack of exposure to daylight, are relatively sensitive to respiratory issues combined with dry air, or have cardiovascular problems and difficulties in regulating the body heat temperature, the list goes on?

That's why one should not look at mortality alone, but in particular look at Excess Winter Mortality, and its multiple possible causes. Cold alone does not seem to be an adequate explanation, especially given that Scandinavian people have much lower EWM rates.

Cheers,
Bart

Bart. The international study analyzed over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries.   Most people don't live in the climes of Scandinavia where the people may have genetically grown impervious to the colder weather.   I suppose arctic foxes don't have these problems either.  But most people live in more temperature areas and are more negatively effected by the cold rather than the heat.

In addition, you arguing supports the points that warmer air means less deaths.  You said about it being colder, "...reduced resistance due to lack of healthy food, lack of exposure to daylight, are relatively sensitive to respiratory issues combined with dry air, or have cardiovascular problems and difficulties in regulating the body heat temperature..."

Most of these situations that cause deaths would be reduced if the temperature was warmer.  Heathy food would be more abundant due to longer and bigger food crops.  Dry air and subsequent respiratory issues would be reduced as warmer air holds more water vapor than drier air which is why people use humidifiers in the winter.  Also, cardio problems and other bodily issues are reduced if it's warmer.  Your argument does not refute the article's point.  Actually it supports it. 

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Bart. The international study analyzed over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries.   Most people don't live in the climes of Scandinavia where the people may have genetically grown impervious to the colder weather.   I suppose arctic foxes don't have these problems either.  But most people live in more temperature areas and are more negatively effected by the cold rather than the heat.

More unfounded assumptions. I'm too lazy to look up the heat-related Excessive Mortality figures, so feel free to do that yourself.

Besides, you're missing the point. Correlation does not imply causation. It's not necessarily the temperature alone.

Cheers,
Bart