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Author Topic: Climate Change: Science and Issues  (Read 121776 times)

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #340 on: November 27, 2017, 08:06:00 am »

It's true that the lifespan of asphalt roof shingles, commonly used in North America is only 15 to 18 years. It's also incredibly stupid, wasteful and shortsighted to continue using such a material. (For a complete disclosure I have also such shingles on my roof).

Fortunately, Elon Musk comes to the rescue. In addition to his Tesla car company, SpaceX, Hyperloop, Tunnel Boring and Battery Gigafactory, this fairly busy man recently opened also an innovative solar roof tile company. His new glass solar roof tiles, coming to the market next year, will be so durable that they are warrantied for the lifetime of your house, or infinity, whichever comes first. The link below shows a nicely clad tile roof on an attractive home and an atached garage, complete with a sleek aerodynamic car in the driveway.

https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/solarroof
I think most of the newer shingles are a fiberglass composite but still only have a limited lifetime.  We've been in our house for just over 30 years and I've already done two complete replacements mostly because we had a couple of small leaks and I wanted to make sure that we didn't have a greater failure.  Shingle life is also climate dependent and areas where there are extremes of seasonal temperatures are not good. 

Regarding the Musk effort, it will be interesting to see if he can make a go of it.  Dow Chemical created a similar solar shingle some years ago.  Unfortunately it was not cost competitive with the 'traditional' solar panels and Dow got out of the business last year.  A good solar shingle product will be quite useful as it will allow architects to have interesting roof designs and still deliver solar power to the home.  I've see a number of new houses being built in our area with roof styles that while large in total area do not have enough flat space for a solar panel array.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #341 on: November 27, 2017, 08:07:51 am »

Excellent New York Times article on the impact of higher temperatures in Peru causing quick glacier melting:  https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/26/world/americas/peru-climate-change.html?_r=0  the desert region is irrigated by water from the glacier and it might run out sooner than anticipated.  There is likely no other source of water for this region.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #342 on: November 27, 2017, 10:15:07 am »

Using very expensive shingles that have solar built in likeTesla raises the construction costs of a new house. The electric savings will be washed away by the higher mortgage interest payments.  Ditto with addingTesla shingles to an existing home.   Unless you have $60 or $70,000 in cash laying around, you have to finance the installation and the interest charges eat up the electric savings.  Of course,  we may be able to get poorer homeowners to subsidize richer ones by offering tax rebates so the richer ones can save on their high electric usage costs.   Like Al Gore.

Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #343 on: November 27, 2017, 10:34:58 am »

For example,  if a Tesla roof cost $50,000 more than a conventional roof,  the monthly additional mortgage is $250 a month or $3000 a year.  Add maintenance costs , battery replacements,  etc. Its just not economically viable.   Of course,  the cost of electricity will go up so it could become more valuable in later years.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2017, 10:52:12 am by Alan Klein »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #344 on: November 27, 2017, 10:46:49 am »

...Apparently you didn't see the word "here" in my statement, I was talking about "here" which you know for me is Europe. Selective memory doesn't help your credibility.

Except Alan was not talking about Europe, but the US and Australia, and I and several other posters supported his facts. Besides, I did noticed your "here" and even acknowledged it with "maybe in Europe." Nothing "selective" with my memory.

As for Europe, I am aware of the old fashioned, clay-based shingles, that can last 100+ years. But that's because houses in Europe are much older and built with the materials meant to withstand the test of time. Europeans don't move (relocate) much. In America, you never know when the next tornado, hurricane, loss of job, dying of an industry, etc. will force you to move. Hence cheaper buildings.

Which makes me wonder, what is the roof longevity of newly built houses in Europe? Even in my home country, I do not see much of those red-clay roofs, and in my travels through Europe, I noticed much more modern black-shingle roofs, not unlike here.

Care to share any source of European roof longevity stats, like I did for the US?

LesPalenik

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #345 on: November 27, 2017, 07:12:07 pm »

Many clay tile roofs on the traditional European houses are over 100 years old.
Below is a section which shows several types of roofs, the one on the left must be from the pre-war times.

 
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #346 on: November 27, 2017, 09:04:37 pm »

Many clay tile roofs on the traditional European houses are over 100 years old.
Below is a section which shows several types of roofs, the one on the left must be from the pre-war times.

Indeed, although there are many different types of construction around. Most types of construction last a long time, especially when they are protected from direct sun radiation by e.g. Photo Voltaic (solar) panels. One does need to be careful with the mounting points of the PV panels on the traditional roof surface, those will become the critical spots to monitor.

In general, the roofs here outlive the expected useful life of solar panels, so Alan K's scare tactics are just to justify inaction.
In fact, the roof covering of the apartment complex I'm living in, was replaced (as a precautionary matter) some 15(?) years ago (they were from the '70s, so some 30 years old at the time.

And in addition to financially breaking even in something like 7-10 years, out of the 20 or so years that PV solar panels are expected to last (with warrantied efficiency), one immediately starts contributing one's bit to the reduction of CO2 emissions (and starts saving money after break-even). And with improving PV-panel quality/efficiency and rising energy taxes, the break-even period is likely to get even shorter, to the point that the government is getting worried about that steady stream of income.
 
And NO, there are no Diesel-fueled generators required to cover for the times with low solar irradiation. The existing power plants just run at a reduced output level (or some of them are decommisioned/retired early), thus immediately polluting less. In (economically justified) time, even those will be replaced by (probably) Wind energy farms (in my case probably most of them at sea), or by Geothermal power generation (which provides direct heat, additionally converts water to steam for turbines, and produces Hydrogen through hydrolysis with the excess of energy).

Cheers,
Bart
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #347 on: November 27, 2017, 09:50:14 pm »

Indeed, although there are many different types of construction around. Most types of construction last a long time, especially when they are protected from direct sun radiation by e.g. Photo Voltaic (solar) panels. One does need to be careful with the mounting points of the PV panels on the traditional roof surface, those will become the critical spots to monitor.

In general, the roofs here outlive the expected useful life of solar panels, so Alan K's scare tactics are just to justify inaction.
In fact, the roof covering of the apartment complex I'm living in, was replaced (as a precautionary matter) some 15(?) years ago (they were from the '70s, so some 30 years old at the time.

And in addition to financially breaking even in something like 7-10 years, out of the 20 or so years that PV solar panels are expected to last (with warrantied efficiency), one immediately starts contributing one's bit to the reduction of CO2 emissions (and starts saving money after break-even). And with improving PV-panel quality/efficiency and rising energy taxes, the break-even period is likely to get even shorter, to the point that the government is getting worried about that steady stream of income.
 
And NO, there are no Diesel-fueled generators required to cover for the times with low solar irradiation. The existing power plants just run at a reduced output level (or some of them are decommisioned/retired early), thus immediately polluting less. In (economically justified) time, even those will be replaced by (probably) Wind energy farms (in my case probably most of them at sea), or by Geothermal power generation (which provides direct heat, additionally converts water to steam for turbines, and produces Hydrogen through hydrolysis with the excess of energy).

Cheers,
Bart
Bart, I'm not trying to scare anyone.  Being in the energy conservation business, I try to assess actual value.  I don't know Europe.  Costs there for electricity may be higher than in the US.  That would make solar payback quicker where you live. 

Our roofs don't last 50 years.  So if you for example want to put in a solar system on a roof that's ten years old, you have a tough decision to replace the roof early or wait another ten years and have to deal with removing and re-installing the solar system.  Warranties for the solar system are great.  Does that include the batteries?  What if the roofer damages the solar panels?  How much to clean snow and dirt off the panels? I wouldn't think your apartment buildings do not have enough roof space to provide enough solar electricity for all the tenants.  Do you people use air conditioners? 

In America in many states, there are huge tax incentives, rebates, etc.  So the so-called savings may benefit the home owner who installs.  But the rest of the taxpayers who cannot take advantage of solar wind up paying for his "free" electricity.  That's neither good economics nor is it fair socially when rich people use poorer people's money to improve their lives.  I'm befuddled that liberal minded Europeans would be in favor of such social policies.  You surprise me.  :)

Finally, do you have studies that show the 7-10 years payback and proof the system last 20 years?  I didn't know they have been around that long to prove your point. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #348 on: November 27, 2017, 10:52:14 pm »

Bart, I was just checking the Netherland's climate.  It's cold latitude at 52 degrees is higher than all of the 50 American states except for Alaska.  Where I live, New Jersey, latitude 40 degrees and a pretty high northern state, everyone uses A/C for the most part.  Going south you can't live without air conditioning.  Florida would belong to the alligators and pythons without A/C.    So it appears you don't use much air conditioning except for American tourists in hotels.  :)  Do you and your friends and family have A/C's?

This is important to our discussion because you need a small solar system to provide electricity for your home.  So it's hugely easier for your country to provide solar power.  You just use so much less electricity.  If I could turn my A/C off, I'd reduce my electricity by 70%, maybe more.  (I heat with natural gas).  Add the fact that electricity rates are much higher in your country also provides a quicker payback for solar.

The point is savings are relative to other things and vary enormously by locale, cost for carbon fueled electricity, climate, rebates, taxes, etc.  Each locale has to calculate the return on investments to their local factors.  If I lived in your country, I'd probably go solar too.  But otherwise, we're arguing apples to oranges.  Neither one of us is right or wrong. 

LesPalenik

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #349 on: November 27, 2017, 11:03:59 pm »

Our roofs don't last 50 years.  So if you for example want to put in a solar system on a roof that's ten years old, you have a tough decision to replace the roof early or wait another ten years and have to deal with removing and re-installing the solar system. 

Alan, it's only the asphalt shingles that don't last that long.
Here in Canada, you can get metal roofs lasting 50-70 years, and clay roof tiles lasting up to 100 years (concrete roof tiles last only half as long). However, the cheaper asphalt shingles are still installed on most of the roofs, since most homeowners rotate their homes more frequently than their roof coverings.

In Quebec City, there is a large Ice Hotel built entirely from ice blocks and hard packed snow. That roof lasts only one winter season, but on the other hand, it uses only organic materials which are very enviromentally friendly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGnGpkPYa8k

If you haven't slept in an ice room yet, you'll enjoy the video clip.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2017, 11:22:05 pm by LesPalenik »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #351 on: November 27, 2017, 11:26:10 pm »

Alan, it's only the asphalt shingles that don't last that long.
Here in Canada, you can get metal roofs lasting 50-70 years, and clay roof tiles lasting up to 100 years (concrete roof tiles last only half as long). However, the cheaper asphalt shingles are still installed on most of the roofs, since most homeowners rotate their homes more frequently than their roof coverings.

In Quebec City, there is a large Ice Hotel built entirely from ice blocks and hard packed snow. That roof lasts only one winter season, but on the other hand, it uses only organic materials which are very enviromentally friendly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGnGpkPYa8k

Actually, Les, you raised another issue why solar has hard going here in the US.  Americans tend to move more often then Europeans and other people.  Not sure about Canadians.  In any case, if you think you'll be moving because a change in job, etc., looking at long term return on investments are not as attractive.  The other factor is will you house sell for more money or just about the same as non-solar homes in your neighborhood?  These factors become a turn-off to solar for many people.

Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #352 on: November 27, 2017, 11:39:27 pm »

Another interesting issue with solar is how you pay for it - with outright cash purchase, leasing or financing it.  The latter two can become big problems when you try to sell your home.  How to deal with the leasing and financing issue and the prospective purchaser who now has to provide additional financing and credit checks.  These are things the solar installing companies never tell you about.   
http://www.dailyrepublic.com/projects/home-seller/solar-panel-leases-a-growing-problem-for-home-sellers/

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #353 on: November 28, 2017, 08:16:41 am »

Actually, Les, you raised another issue why solar has hard going here in the US.  Americans tend to move more often then Europeans and other people.  Not sure about Canadians.  In any case, if you think you'll be moving because a change in job, etc., looking at long term return on investments are not as attractive.  The other factor is will you house sell for more money or just about the same as non-solar homes in your neighborhood?  These factors become a turn-off to solar for many people.

Possibly, but that's a little short-sighted thinking (which is the essential problem, I guess), since a long-lasting roof is an asset that increases the value of a house. Anyway, we do this already with shingle roofs, don't we, because we estimate the life left on it when buying a house. It's just the time frame that changes.

We do this kind of inadequate analysis all the time. We don't build subway lines or new roads because taxpayers don't want to spend the money. All people see is cost. But we lose sight of the long-term value to everyone of having that new asset. Some may think that it is difficult to calculate but it's not, we have centuries of experience in evaluating the benefits of infrastructure spending.

We (the royal we) do something similar in other areas. As I have stated before (in this thread or in a previous one) there are an estimated 190,000 abandoned oil and gas wells in Alberta alone. The companies that constructed them were NOT required to take them down at the end of their productive life. The cost for doing that didn't disappear, of course, it is just a legacy passed on to future taxpayers. This is another example of a benefit accrued to a few, the resource companies, but paid for by the many, the rest of us. We choose to calculate the government subsidies paid into the development of solar panels but ignore the century and a half of various subsidies to the resource industries. At best, this is an incomplete calculation.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #354 on: November 28, 2017, 10:31:35 am »

Possibly, but that's a little short-sighted thinking (which is the essential problem, I guess), since a long-lasting roof is an asset that increases the value of a house. Anyway, we do this already with shingle roofs, don't we, because we estimate the life left on it when buying a house. It's just the time frame that changes.

We do this kind of inadequate analysis all the time. We don't build subway lines or new roads because taxpayers don't want to spend the money. All people see is cost. But we lose sight of the long-term value to everyone of having that new asset. Some may think that it is difficult to calculate but it's not, we have centuries of experience in evaluating the benefits of infrastructure spending.

We (the royal we) do something similar in other areas. As I have stated before (in this thread or in a previous one) there are an estimated 190,000 abandoned oil and gas wells in Alberta alone. The companies that constructed them were NOT required to take them down at the end of their productive life. The cost for doing that didn't disappear, of course, it is just a legacy passed on to future taxpayers. This is another example of a benefit accrued to a few, the resource companies, but paid for by the many, the rest of us. We choose to calculate the government subsidies paid into the development of solar panels but ignore the century and a half of various subsidies to the resource industries. At best, this is an incomplete calculation.
I wish my roof was slate.  But I bought a resale and all the houses made in my 55+ community are made cheap, frankly, not only roofs. Yet they are expensive enough that special design is beyond what we would spend in any case.  Unless you're  a multi-millionaire and have an architect who's building to your blank check, you can't buy anything within your price range that is built to such personal standards. 

Regarding infrastructure, I agree that many industries have left their junk after the industry moved on.  Look at Detroit and across the whole rust belt.  Laws could be written.  But states are so happy when new industry moves in to give their people jobs, they're afraid to make it too onerous to enforce such requirements.  They don't want to scare off new industry.  But, the laws are more stringent, sometimes too stringent.  There has to be a balance of sorts.

On a personal note, my wife who was a school teacher in a Queens, NYC public school that had an issue.  A clothes cleaning establishment 5 blocks away had shut down years earlier.  However, the chemicals they used for years  seeped into the ground and migrated to near the school.  Fumes were seeping in to the school's basement.  The  Feds and NYC researched the issue, tested the ground with instruments,  and had to install traps and special exhaust systems to keep the air clear in the school.  The taxpayers paid for the "cleanup". Even so, I told my wife to stay out of the basement.  She worked on the 2nd floor.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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EricV

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #356 on: December 01, 2017, 12:30:14 pm »

No acceleration means a steady increase in global temperature, by 0.1C per decade according to this study.  Compared to other models, I guess this counts as a good result.  But integrated over another 50 years, it still represents very significant global warming.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #357 on: December 01, 2017, 01:51:32 pm »

Why isn't the temperature continuing to go up if CO2 continues to go up? What accounts for the stall or decreasing rates?  If there are other factors affecting it, what are they? Why aren't scientists discussing them?

pegelli

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #358 on: December 01, 2017, 02:15:46 pm »

Why isn't the temperature continuing to go up if CO2 continues to go up?
It is still going up, but less then some other models predict. The paper was published in a scientific journal, so it will be discussed in the scientific community but not by Daily Caller, who has no interest to publish anything that goes against their opinion. Hell, they're known to buy witnesses to make false statements and allegations. There's biased media on the right/conservative side as well it seems.  ;)

Btw, the paper was interesting since it also explains some of the difficulties to make accurate and representative temperature measurements of the atmosphere's temperature and at first blush (granted I'm not an expert) it seems they seem to have done a good job of that aspect.
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pieter, aka pegelli

amolitor

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #359 on: December 01, 2017, 05:58:54 pm »

Once upon a time there was a rich land, with berries and fruits all the summer long. You could hunt game and gather fruits and live well all through fall.

A few people said "we should dry some berries, dry some meat. Perhaps we should plant some crops so that there will be extra food, to be saved for later. For the winter will be very long indeed" but everyone else laughed and said "there's plenty to go around, and in the winter, the free market will sort it all out. It is foolish to expend extra effort now."

And so winter came and there were only a few handfuls of berries that had been dried by accident. And the market did indeed sort it out, the last few berries sold for astronomical sums. But everyone died anyways, because the winter was very long, and very cold.
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