What next for Canon?

[shadowblade]

The question is how long they can be successful business wise with good products but products that are significantly behind those of their 2 main competitors along most important metrics. Factually, it's been like that for years on the bodies for photography applications (not for video obviously) but, more worryingly for Canon, they have IMHO been losing on the lens front as well. They do of course still have a great line up covering the needs of pros very very well, but their choices of lens roadmap and lens design technical options follows the same philosophy as their cameras: reliable, relevant and good but boring and lacking vision, ambition and character/excitement (we'll see if the 135mm T/S indicates a shift in the right direction or is a anomaly). They seem to be shooting for a Toyota like market positioning but with a 10 years delay and without the Lexus brand equivalent, effective but average. I am not sure this is the right choice when you see the urge of photographers to differentiate themselves.

Canon and Nikon have somehow been switching position these past 5 years. Canon used to do the 85mm f1.2 and Nikon their middle of the road 85mm f1.4... these days Nikon releases their 105mm f1.4 while Canon comes up with a 85mm f1.4...

Canon and Nikon lenses are pretty much equivalent - the better one is generally the newer one, in whichever category. At the moment, Nikon has newer and better telephotos (except the 200-400) while Canon has the newer and better UWAs. When Nikon releases an update to the 14-24, I'd expect it to overtake the Canons. Vice-versa when Canon updates their telephotos to be newer than the Nikons.

The fun part comes next though... Odds are that Nikon will release a breakthrough FF mirrorless body in the next 6 months after they have convinced their DSLR use base to buy a historic amount of D850 bodies. The D850 is the digital F6, the last body DSLR users will need before Nikon moves on to next gen. And that is going when the real trouble may start for Canon if they continue acting the same.

That's why I haven't preordered the D850, despite it being clearly the best camera out there at the moment for my purposes (mostly high-resolution non-action, with occasional wildlife/action). At the moment, I don't own a camera and need to replace most of my destroyed gear, so am relatively free to buy into any system. A super-high resolution body, plus a high-resolution body with good frame rate/AF (the D850) would be ideal. But I don't see F-mount, or at least current F-mount lenses, as having a future - likely the D850 is the end of the road, or at least very close to it. Mirrorless will likely use a different mount, or at least a different flange distance. Even if it doesn't, lenses will need stepping motors to support all the more advanced (not purely PDAF) focus modes. And I don't want to be stuck with a lens collection that will be less than fully functional after just one generation of bodies.

Per my, reasonably educated, guess, Nikon's mirrorless is going to be very high end, a digital rangefinder produced in Sendai with a new range of very high performance lenses and an adapter with embedded AF module enabling to focus their current range of lenses with excellent AF performance.

Cheers,
Bernard

I'd expect the first one to be a replacement for the D610.

Lenses need stepping motors to support focus modes other than on-sensor PDAF. They need to be capable of small, rapid, repeated movements, rather than just single big movements. Very few Nikon lenses have these at the moment.

It would be logical to start with an entry-level body, which isn't expected to perform AF-wise (and can work with old lenses via an adapter and a limited number of new lenses) while they update their lens collection to be fully compatible with mirrorless AF modes, rather than something which needs to compete with SLRs and the A9 right from the start.

The alternative would be a dedicated, super-high-resolution non-action body, which isn't expected to be able to AF anyway. But Nikon would have to source a sensor for that, which brings its own problems.

[BernardLanguillier]

Lenses need stepping motors to support focus modes other than on-sensor PDAF. They need to be capable of small, rapid, repeated movements, rather than just single big movements. Very few Nikon lenses have these at the moment.

You are looking at this assuming that Nikon won't be competitive AFwise even with newly designed lenses.

I prefer to be more positive.

I would bet we will see 2 solutions:
- new mirrorless lenses (I believe FF lenses, but this isn't really the point) that will natively be very fast AF wise on the mirrorless body. It would make no sense for Nikon to release something not as good as Sony and they have proven time and again the quality of their engineering team,
- existing lenses won't be focused with the sensor, they will be focused with an AF mechanism located in the adapter and similar to the current DSLR approach.

You will get the best of both worlds.

Cheers,
Bernard

[BernardLanguillier]

https://photorumors.com/2017/09/05/first-rumored-specifications-for-the-canon-eos-5ds-r-mark-ii-dslr-camera/

Hesitating between hilarious and pathetic.

If someone still doubted the implication of Canon marketing in various rumors spreading this should clarify it once for all. Based on past occurences... the 5DsII will be an early 2019 camera annoucement shipping in summer of that year.

Now at least does it confirm the level of agitation the D850 has generated!

Cheers,
Bernard

[shadowblade]

https://photorumors.com/2017/09/05/first-rumored-specifications-for-the-canon-eos-5ds-r-mark-ii-dslr-camera/

Hesitating between hilarious and pathetic.

If someone still doubted the implication of Canon marketing in various rumors spreading this should clarify it once for all. Based on past occurences... the 5DsII will be an early 2019 camera annoucement shipping in summer of that year.

Now at least does it confirm the level of agitation the D850 has generated!

Cheers,
Bernard

That depends largely on its frame rate and AF performance.

5fps, 5D4-level AF and the launch price of the 5Dsr? It's dead even before launch. Given the D850, amd the likely Sony bodies before then, a pure resolution-focused body will need to have 80MP to have any chance. But make it 60MP, 9fps and 1Dx2-level AF (or even better than that, given the delay), with a USD3000-3500 launch price, and it would be a well-placed general-purpose/'balanced' body, and a nice upgrade 15 months down the track from the D850.

Either way, though, it will run into the 'end of SLR' problem, even more than the D850 - that is, it will attract Canon-using upgraders looking to get one more generation of bodies out of their existing lenses, but won't attract new users to the system, since no-one wants to be stuck with a collection of obsolete lenses on an obsolete mount after just one generation of bodies. In a way, this means that it doesn't need to be as good as its rivals, since it would only be marketed at existing Canon users anyway.

What if it had the same specs, but was actually a mirrorless body? As Canon's first-generation full-frame mirrorless body, it would do a fair bit better than as Canon's last-generation SLR. People would be buying into it with the confidence that anything associated with it - lenses, accessories, etc. - would have a long life ahead. If Nikon hasn't released a full-frame mirrorless camera by then, it will give Canon a huge leg up in being first to market a product, as was the case early in the DSLR life cycle - an advantage which persists to today. And Canon's mirrorless AF technology is a lot more mature than Nikon's (dual-pixel AF has been around for a while and improves with every generation).

Ultimately, both Canon and Nikon would have a lot to gain if they could just make a firm statement regarding the future use of EF or F mount in mirrorless cameras, and the viability (or non-viability) of current lenses. Even if current lenses are non-viable, it could still work out positively for them if they keep the same physical mount and make the announcement at the same time as they release a slew of stepping-motor-equipped lenses (e.g. new Canon 400, 500, 600 and 800mm lenses) compatible with both SLR and mirrorless. I'm still at a loss to explain Sony sticking with the same mount when they released their FE-mount cameras and lenses, instead of using a wider one. The shallow flange distance is good; the narrow throat, not so much. EF mount and F mount have a lot more potential in this regard.

[BernardLanguillier]

My comment wasn't about the rumored specs, it was about the purposeful leaking of what can only be misleading information one day before the actual market availability of a competitor's new product.

Canon does it every single time and the implied "soon" ends up taking years.

This is IMHO borderline blatently false advertising.

Cheers,
Bernard

[NancyP]

Depends on how seriously you take these leaked "possible specs", Bernard. I never took these things too seriously until an announcement date appears. And Nikon has the same problem on occasion. My hoped-for 1" sensor DL series never saw the light of day, though I seem to remember you had used a prototype.

I have to say that I look at the dawn of the 850 as a chance to pick up a used 810 and sample the Nikon universe - though all my Nikon lenses are old-fashioned AIS manual lenses.

[BernardLanguillier]

Depends on how seriously you take these leaked "possible specs", Bernard. I never took these things too seriously until an announcement date appears. And Nikon has the same problem on occasion. My hoped-for 1" sensor DL series never saw the light of day, though I seem to remember you had used a prototype.

Yes, you are right of course, a large majority of photographers have learned by now to handle these information carefully, but I still find pretty pathetic the urge apparently felt by Canon to leak such misleading information.

Nikon was a bit different on the DL, they had announced it, published an availability date, shown some pre-production cameras in photoshows,... then they ran into issues later. Pretty pathetic too, for for different reasons.

Cheers,
Bernard

[uaiomex]

60 Mp would not make it for me. A fully articulating screen and a new generation (13+ stop DR) 50Mp sensor certainly would.

https://photorumors.com/2017/09/05/first-rumored-specifications-for-the-canon-eos-5ds-r-mark-ii-dslr-camera/

Hesitating between hilarious and pathetic.

If someone still doubted the implication of Canon marketing in various rumors spreading this should clarify it once for all. Based on past occurences... the 5DsII will be an early 2019 camera annoucement shipping in summer of that year.

Now at least does it confirm the level of agitation the D850 has generated!

Cheers,
Bernard

[shadowblade]

60 Mp would not make it for me. A fully articulating screen and a new generation (13+ stop DR) 50Mp sensor certainly would.

Improved DR goes without saying. Every recent camera (apart from entry-level lines using the old fab facilities) has it. To not include it in the 5Ds2 - a low-ISO-focused camera - would be so dumb as to be safely discounted.

But a slow 50MP camera with 5D4-level AF, coming 15 months after the D850, isn't going to attract anyone. If it's going to be a non-action camera,  it will need significantly more resolution and other features to make it stand out relative to the D850 and any Sony offerings for that purpose - lower minimum ISO, even higher DR (increased FWC), etc. If it doesn't have that, it will need to compete as an action-capable camera, with top-tier AF and better frame rate. A camera with no IQ advantage over the D850 that's slower, yet priced the same, isn't going to attract anyone.

Perhaps Canon's best bet would be to abandon SLRs altogether and make their next generation of bodies and lenses mirrorless, getting the jump on Nikon and grabbing early market share before they can get their own mirrorless lines out. A switch to mirrorless is inevitable - better to do it first, while your rival is still selling old technology.

[BernardLanguillier]

Perhaps Canon's best bet would be to abandon SLRs altogether and make their next generation of bodies and lenses mirrorless, getting the jump on Nikon and grabbing early market share before they can get their own mirrorless lines out. A switch to mirrorless is inevitable - better to do it first, while your rival is still selling old technology.

They will have to be quick...

Cheers,
Bernard

[shadowblade]

You are looking at this assuming that Nikon won't be competitive AFwise even with newly designed lenses.

I prefer to be more positive.

I would bet we will see 2 solutions:
- new mirrorless lenses (I believe FF lenses, but this isn't really the point) that will natively be very fast AF wise on the mirrorless body. It would make no sense for Nikon to release something not as good as Sony and they have proven time and again the quality of their engineering team,
- existing lenses won't be focused with the sensor, they will be focused with an AF mechanism located in the adapter and similar to the current DSLR approach.

You will get the best of both worlds.

Cheers,
Bernard

Nikon's team is very good at SLRs, and very good at optics. So far, they haven't demonstrated a mirrorless system or other mirrorless technologies that are credible by 2017 standards - no stacked sensor or other solution to EVF lag, no dual-pixel AF or other fast, distance-aware AF solution, etc. Canon has demonstrated their AF capabilities in live-view-capable SLRs, in mirrorless cameras and in video cameras, while Sony has put everything together into the A9, which performs at the same tier as the 1Dx2 and D5. I don't know whether Nikon has any designs in the back office somewhere, but, so far, they haven't demonstrated equivalent capabilities. And expertise in one area of camera-related engineering is no guarantee of expertise in another area. Just look at all the catch-up work Sony's had to do optics-wise, or Canon with sensors.

We already have evidence on how well non-stepping-motor lenses work on mirrorless systems, even with PDAF via an SLR-type approach. Sony has its A-mount adapter, while Canon has an adapter to use EF lenses on EF-M cameras. They're not great... not up to par with native performance even on mid-grade SLRs.

Nikon would need to update almost every single one of its lenses. And, unlike the Canons (which are mostly due for updates anyway), most of the Nikons are fairly recent releases.

[BernardLanguillier]

Nikon's team is very good at SLRs, and very good at optics. So far, they haven't demonstrated a mirrorless system or other mirrorless technologies that are credible by 2017 standards - ...

There we go again... Same answer, check out the 1 series and tell me it doesn't have a top notch AF... although it hasn't been updated for a few years.

Do not confuse the non release of updates to the market with a lack of Nikon internal R&D on these topics.

It is 100% sure that Nikon has maintained a very active internal R&D stream about mirrorless AF expanding what they released with the 1 series.

Cheers,
Bernard

[shadowblade]

There we go again... Same answer, check out the 1 series and tell me it doesn't have a top notch AF... although it hasn't been updated for a few years.

Do not confuse the non release of updates to the market with a lack of Nikon internal R&D on these topics.

It is 100% sure that Nikon has maintained a very active internal R&D stream about mirrorless AF expanding what they released with the 1 series.

Cheers,
Bernard

That's an old, discontinued line of cameras which hasn't received an update in years. Decent AF conpared to other mirrorless cameras of its time, but still with a laggy EVF. It's no A9, that's for sure.

We can only judge the state of manufacturers' technology by what they release, not what they promise. Canon and Sony have demonstrated ongoing development and prowess in mirrorless-related technologies (whether they're actually being used in a mirrorless camera, or as part of a video camera or live view system). Apart from a one-off, now-abandoned effort, Nikon has not. Until they demonstrate otherwise,  e.g. by including a lag-free display or super-fast live view AF in the D850, there's no reason to believe they even have that capability. Anything else is just rhetoric or corporate marketing.

That goes for every company. No-one expected the A9 to AF as well as the top tier of SLRs (1Dx2/D4s/D5). Then they released it. There's no demonstration like a released product showing the capability.

[BernardLanguillier]

There's no demonstration like a released product showing the capability.

Agreed. Future will tell.

I propose to bookmark this thread and to come back to it in a few months and assess whose assessment was the closest.

Unless I am mistaken, you had been predicting insistently the inability of Nikon to source a good sensor for the D850, right?

For now, here are the latest Nikon patents for mirrorless Full Frame lenses: https://nikonrumors.com/2017/09/07/new-nikon-patents-nikkor-52mm-f0-9-and-36mm-f1-2-full-frame-mirrorless-lenses.aspx/

It seems pretty obvious based on these that Nikon has a strategy quite different from Sony's for mirrorless. Instead of going for compact, they have decided to go for super high end and to leverage the optical advantages delivered by the lack of mirror. They are not going to try to only sell those to existing Nikon lens owners, they are going to come up with lenses that every single photographer will want to own.

Cheers,
Bernard

[Hans Kruse]

As a mainly landscape shooter, I have seen the mirrorless cameras and looked into the view finders and I have to say that it will take quite a while before I would like what I see. Until the quality of what I see is close to an OVF I'm not going to like it. If DSLR's disappear I will be using the last ones until they don't work anymore or the mirrorless cameras will have a very good EVF. I'm looking forward to see the view finder on the D850 because the D810 always disappointed me a bit since it is so dark on an f/4 lens. The 5DSR is way brighter even on an f/5.6 lens. I see the flaws of the D810 (which is still a very good camera) has been fixed on the D850 so I preordered one in a split second. I expect that handling wise it will be very similar or maybe even better than the 5DSR.

It is often mentioned by people who promote or like mirrorless cameras that the advantage is all the things you can see in the viewfinder like focus and exposure information. But really what I want to see in the view finder is what I'm shooting and not overlaid by tons of information that I don't really need. What really counts for me is a camera that can be shot in a way so that I have a technically perfect shot every time I compose an image. I can do this with the 5DSR and can do this with the D810 and expect this to be even better with the D810 because of the electronic shutter.

The old nerd in me thinks it is fantastic with all the advances in technology and I can appreciate this very well, but what really counts for me is the above. For Canon and Nikon the diminishing market is more of a concern although I think sensor tech is actually benefitting a lot from mobile devices.

[kers]

...
It is often mentioned by people who promote or like mirrorless cameras that the advantage is all the things you can see in the viewfinder like focus and exposure information. But really what I want to see in the view finder is what I'm shooting and not overlaid by tons of information that I don't really need. ...

+1
It is a good thing Nikon has put in a better OVF; the OVF is very important to me as well.
It is a pity autofocus i causes the fact that a half translucent mirror is used - it would be nice if they could make one again with a perfect mirror. Like in the old days.

[shadowblade]

Agreed. Future will tell.

I propose to bookmark this thread and to come back to it in a few months and assess whose assessment was the closest.

Unless I am mistaken, you had been predicting insistently the inability of Nikon to source a good sensor for the D850, right?

No - I said their sensor wouldn't be as good as Sony's best. Not that it wouldn't be any good. That Sony wouldn't sell Nikon the best sensor they could develop - only the second best one, or the best one that Nikon themselves developed (that Sony would then make).

And it doesn't appear to be as good as Sony's best possible sensor at the moment. Sony managed 42MP, with base ISO performance equivalent to a D810 and high-ISO performance equivalent to a D5, more than two years ago. The next generation isn't far away and should be much better - at least in resolution (60-80MP range), possibly in other aspects as well. Meanwhile, the D850 has gained all of 4MP over the A7r2 in the 27 months since the latter's release, and early DR measurements at various ISOs suggest it is not much different from the A7r2 in that regard either.

But the sensor was never meant to be the strong point of the D850. It's a balanced camera, not a sensor-centric one. And the sensor is extremely strong for an action camera. Remember, I said nothing about the rest of the camera - frame rate, autofocus, build, battery life and other features. Only the sensor. Nikon obviously did the smart thing, took the best sensor they could get and built a high-speed, fast-focusing body around it, rather than simply jamming a slightly-better sensor into a D810-type body and keeping it as a slow-shooting non-action camera that would struggle to compete against Sony's next generation. Were they forced into this because they couldn't get a better sensor, or was it a voluntary decision to sacrifice resolution to make it a faster and more general-purpose camera? Who knows - it's certainly a very good product for what it is. But do they have an ultra-high-resolution studio/landscape/non-action body in the works - say, 72MP/5fps rather than 46MP/9fps? I doubt it.

For now, here are the latest Nikon patents for mirrorless Full Frame lenses: https://nikonrumors.com/2017/09/07/new-nikon-patents-nikkor-52mm-f0-9-and-36mm-f1-2-full-frame-mirrorless-lenses.aspx/

It seems pretty obvious based on these that Nikon has a strategy quite different from Sony's for mirrorless. Instead of going for compact, they have decided to go for super high end and to leverage the optical advantages delivered by the lack of mirror. They are not going to try to only sell those to existing Nikon lens owners, they are going to come up with lenses that every single photographer will want to own.

You realise everyone has a ton of patents for gear which never comes to fruition?

Also, lenses were never going to be the problem for Nikon. If there's one thing they're good at, it's optics. But, unless they're going to compete with Zeiss and Sigma and  start making lenses for Canon and Sony mirrorless cameras, those lens designs aren't going to do them any good until they have a mirrorless camera that can focus just as fast and accurately, and has as little viewfinder lag, as a current-generation Sony or Canon mirrorless body. And where are Nikon's patents for those, let alone any actual examples?

[shadowblade]

As a mainly landscape shooter, I have seen the mirrorless cameras and looked into the view finders and I have to say that it will take quite a while before I would like what I see. Until the quality of what I see is close to an OVF I'm not going to like it. If DSLR's disappear I will be using the last ones until they don't work anymore or the mirrorless cameras will have a very good EVF. I'm looking forward to see the view finder on the D850 because the D810 always disappointed me a bit since it is so dark on an f/4 lens. The 5DSR is way brighter even on an f/5.6 lens. I see the flaws of the D810 (which is still a very good camera) has been fixed on the D850 so I preordered one in a split second. I expect that handling wise it will be very similar or maybe even better than the 5DSR.

It is often mentioned by people who promote or like mirrorless cameras that the advantage is all the things you can see in the viewfinder like focus and exposure information. But really what I want to see in the view finder is what I'm shooting and not overlaid by tons of information that I don't really need. What really counts for me is a camera that can be shot in a way so that I have a technically perfect shot every time I compose an image. I can do this with the 5DSR and can do this with the D810 and expect this to be even better with the D810 because of the electronic shutter.

The old nerd in me thinks it is fantastic with all the advances in technology and I can appreciate this very well, but what really counts for me is the above. For Canon and Nikon the diminishing market is more of a concern although I think sensor tech is actually benefitting a lot from mobile devices.

As a landscape shooter, those are precisely the reasons I prefer mirrorless or live view over an OVF. Even my old 5D2s were never taken out of live view mode.

Regardless of how dark it is, they always give me a big, bright image that accurately reflects the exposure of the image, rather than the brightness of the scene. An image that takes an 8-second exposure looks very different from the scene's appearance in an OVF, yet, with an EVF, what I see is what I'll get. By zooming in, I can see exactly what's in focus and what's out of focus, especially when using tilt-shifts. I can see which highlights and shadows will be blown out. In situations where DR isn't a concern, I can accurately expose to the right without fear of blowing out, for improved noise. I can instantly see what a scene will look like with various white balance settings, rather than not knowing until after the shot. And a big, bright LCD screen that can be zoomed in and out is always going to let me see a lot more detail than a relatively tiny OVF, no matter how good.

[BernardLanguillier]

Shadowblade,

Your ability to build stories around your beliefs if quite remarkable. I honnestly think that you should consider writing fiction novels if you have not done so yet.

Do you really believe for a second that Nikon, a company not doing well according to you, would waste precious resources patenting designs they have no intention to release? That's what you do when you have cash to burn.

Besides, what makes you think they would invest in mirrorless at this point without a winning product, whch must mean a product with great focusing abilities. Why would they go from dominating the DSLR AF technology to going subpar in the mirrorless world?

Cheers,
Bernard

[kers]

.... And a big, bright LCD screen that can be zoomed in and out is always going to let me see a lot more detail than a relatively tiny OVF, no matter how good.

yes, one detail at a time...
I prefer both; a good OVF ( screen + loop) + a good EVF - since both have their strengths and weaknesses