Glad to see you agree with my analysis of the D850 positioning.
Sony will have to answer, this is the camera 90% of photographers will want.
My view is that Sony will call their answer a7rIII.
Cheers,
Bernard
50MP, 10fps and top-tier AF (1Dx2, D5/D500 or A9-level capability) is probably around the sweet spot for an action body. In fact, if the 46MP, 10fps and D5 AF module rumours are correct, the only reason no-one's calling it an action camera is because the D5 exists and shoots faster. But, provided AF capability is the same, 46MP and 10fps is going to be far more valuable than 20MP and 14fps for most action photography - wildlife and field sports are often focal length limited, making increased pixel density valuable for cropping, while the ability to crop for composition also comes in useful when shooting moving subjects with primes and not being able to zoom or move to change the composition (e.g. head vs upper body vs whole body shots). And the ability to shoot marginally-usable shots at ISO 102400 (or completely useless shots at ISO 3.2 million) is mostly meaningless bragging rights when the vast majority of shots take place at ISO 400-6400, or maybe ISO 12800 at a stretch.
This would make the Canon 5D5 a more likely competitor (beefed up to 45-50MP and with an AF system equal to Canon's best of the day), relegating the 5Ds2 to competing with Sony's 60-80MP body. The alternatives would either mean that the 5Ds2 becomes a 'super 5D', with the 5D4/5D5 being relegated to a lower line, or Canon ignores the D850 entirely, leaving the 1Dx as a fast-shooting but low-resolution body, the 5D line as a slightly higher-resolution body that still lacks the cropability of the D850 and the 5Ds2 becoming a high-resolution body to compete with Sony's, but without the frame rate to make it useful as an action camera, ceding the wildlife and field sports ground to Nikon without a competitive replacement.
Of course, if it can't match the D5 or D500 AF-wise, this all goes out the window.
As for the Sony competitor:
Sony has a 60-80MP sensor in the pipeline. This will almost certainly go into the flagship high-resolution model - Sony intends to own the high-resolution, non-action game. But this camera cannot also have the 8-10fps capability to be an action body, unless it's priced well above the D850/D5/A9/1Dx2/5Ds2, in which case it would lose on price. Even if it had the A9's AF system (and there's really no reason it shouldn't have the best AF Sony can produce), if it shot at 5fps it still wouldn't be a primary action body. It would work well as a second action body (while serving as a primary non-action camera in a two-body kit) and for 'sniping'-type action shots (tracking a target, then triggering the shutter at the right moment); as a primary action body, it wouldn't be embarrassingly unusable (like, say, a D3x, A7r2 or 5D2) but would fall well short of other bodies out there.
The A9's capabilities are well known - it shoots faster than anything else out there that isn't a video camera, and, unlike a video camera, retains full AF tracking while doing so. It shoots faster than necessary most of the time and lacks the cropability of the D850; on the other hand, it's going toe-to-toe with the 1Dx2 and D5 for sports (likely more so after Sony releases a few long telephotos) and has found an interested audience in event and wedding photographers.
Between these two systems, there really isn't anything that covers wildlife and field sports to the same degree as the rumoured D850 specs - the high-resolution body has the resolution but doesn't shoot fast enough, while the A9 has too low a resolution for significant cropping. So there's probably room for something there - again, in the 45-54MP, 10fps range. 45MP cropped by 1.5x would give you 20MP, while 54MP would give you 24MP - similar to the crop-sensor options out there, with more flexibility. Regarding the AF system, it would actually make more sense to put the A9 system (or whatever the top AF system of the day happens to be) into this model rather than into the top-resolution model, since this one is more likely to be used for fast action. Naturally, it would be better to have all three models share the same, top-tier AF system, but if one of them has to have a weaker system (for market segmentation or whatever other reason) it should be the ultra-high-resolution version, rather than this one.
I find it improbable that Sony will find room for four different full-frame lineups. The high-resolution (60-80MP) and resolution-action (45-54MP, 8-10fps) versions seem fairly mandatory, given the competition and Sony's known development of high-resolution sensors (and its own advertising - GM lenses 'capable of handling up to 100MP'), while the A9 has only recently been released and has the unique cachet of being faster than anything else out there.
But Sony also has the A7s line, designed for high-ISO shooting, which either means shooting in the dark or freezing the action of fast-moving subjects. The thing is, with the A7s' AF system, it can't track fast-moving subjects very well, even if it can freeze their action well, and lacks the frame rate to effectively shoot fast subjects - it may be able to freeze the action at ISO 25600, but that doesn't mean it's going to freeze the moment you actually want.
Could it be that the A7s-line sensor is dead, replaced by the A9 with its 24MP sensor, high frame rate and shoot-in-the-dark AF capability? After all, the ability to shoot noise-free shots in the dark is pretty useless without the ability to focus quickly and accurately in the same darkness, the A9's sensor is just about as good with regards to high-ISO detail, and the 12MP sensor hasn't been updated since the first A7s was released.
If so, this would leave the A9 as the high speed/low light camera, a 60-80MP, slow-shooting camera as the resolution king and something in-between, in the 45-54MP range, as the general action camera. Pick and choose your models as required for the job. For a two-body kit, I could personally use a 70-80MP body as my main landscape body (and providing useful backup for wildlife and action), together with a 45-54MP action body for cropable wildlife shots (and retaining sufficient resolution to provide useful backup for landscapes).