Poll

Your prediction, not your vote.

Clinton
- 9 (69.2%)
Trump
- 4 (30.8%)
Hung college
- 0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 13


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Author Topic: Election predictions  (Read 79773 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #180 on: November 11, 2016, 03:17:59 pm »

I think most prime ministers in a parliamentary country have much less power then the president of the US.
Also if there are more then 2 parties he needs to make a coalition with other parties and develop a government program in which something of all these parties comes back (otherwise they won't join his coalition). So it's more a matter of accepting a complete (multi party) government vs. just accepting one man in charge. Examples I'm thinking of here are Belgium and the Netherlands (two countries I have lived in).
I'm not saying this is better or worse then the US system, but I'm trying to answer your question of how the people accept the outcome of the elections and selection of the Prime Minister and his government, despite the fact that the PM (or his party) has a popular vote significantly below 50%

I'm not saying our system is better either.  I'm just pointing out to those who complain that Trump got less than Hillary but almost 50% of the popular vote, that in parliamentary countries the eventual Prime Minister's popular vote is substantially less.  Having Parliamentarians from other parties make back room deals to get certain things from the leading party is not about the popular vote directly.   It's like making a sausage.   So complaints about the Electoral system being archaic is misplaced.  I guess there's no perfect system.

pegelli

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #181 on: November 11, 2016, 03:21:54 pm »

I'm not saying our system is better either.  I'm just pointing out to those who complain that Trump got less than Hillary but almost 50% of the popular vote, that in parliamentary countries the eventual Prime Minister's popular vote is substantially less.  Having Parliamentarians from other parties make back room deals to get certain things from the leading party is not about the popular vote directly.   It's like making a sausage.   So complaints about the Electoral system being archaic is misplaced.  I guess there's no perfect system.
Well, at least in the Netherlands and Belgium it's not a "back room deal", the full government program is published and publicly debated. But I agree it's a sausage ;)
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Rob C

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #182 on: November 11, 2016, 03:26:16 pm »

I'm not saying our system is better either.  I'm just pointing out to those who complain that Trump got less than Hillary but almost 50% of the popular vote, that in parliamentary countries the eventual Prime Minister's popular vote is substantially less.  Having Parliamentarians from other parties make back room deals to get certain things from the leading party is not about the popular vote directly.   It's like making a sausage.   So complaints about the Electoral system being archaic is misplaced.  I guess there's no perfect system.


Absolutely not if you wish to include some sort of liberty in it. But wait, there are interesting things going down in Turkey, press freedom being one of them. Perfection may be close! Hasn't that been tried before, though?

Rob

myotis

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #183 on: November 11, 2016, 03:40:33 pm »

I'm curious about those who live in a Parliamentary country.  The Prime Ministers get a much smaller percent of the total popular vote than in the US but becomes leader with the support of people who voted for someone else.  Yet don't you accept your leader regardless of his or her tiny popular vote? 

In the UK, we have no say in who the Prime Minister is. We vote for a local member of parliament (MP). The party with the most MPs becomes the Government and the party decides who leads it and hence becomes Prime Minister.  Having said that, you do know before you vote who 'current" the leader of each party is, so you could allow that to influence your vote, but I suspect most people vote for the party and just accept who the party leader is. The party can also change the leader whenever they want, even when in power.

The winning party often only gets around 1/3rd of the votes, but that is just how the system works, and you need some sort of system.

Minority parties can do very badly e.g. Nigel Farage's UKIP  party got 12.6 % of the votes, but only 1 (out of 650) parliamentary seats, with this system, and there is some pressure from some quarters for proportional representation, raher than first past the post, but there doesn't seem to much enthusiasm for it.

But it does mean that in the UK we are nearly always run by a Government that the majority don't want to be there !!

Cheers,
Graham



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myotis

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #184 on: November 11, 2016, 03:52:32 pm »

I'm not saying our system is better either.  I'm just pointing out to those who complain that Trump got less than Hillary but almost 50% of the popular vote, that in parliamentary countries the eventual Prime Minister's popular vote is substantially less. 

In terms of who is elected in a specific election there is no purpose in complaining, as that is just how the system works. You could however complain about the system, and propose  a change to proportional representation, but I think that brings its own problems.

Cheers,

Graham
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Chairman Bill

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #185 on: November 11, 2016, 04:01:42 pm »

This kind of thinking is why Trump won.  You laugh at people's core beliefs.  You don't get it.  Oh well.
He's perfectly entitled to his beliefs & opinions, but this man is set to be one bullet away from being President, and if he's so utterly ignorant of science, so divorced from reality ...

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #186 on: November 11, 2016, 04:58:02 pm »

Hold on, Bill, evolution IS a theory, isn't it?

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #187 on: November 11, 2016, 05:02:18 pm »

... one bullet away from being President..

Just noticed that. Is that a not-so-thinly vailed hope for a Trump's assassination?

Telecaster

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #188 on: November 11, 2016, 05:29:20 pm »

Hold on, Bill, evolution IS a theory, isn't it?

Theory. It's a term used loosely in popular parlance, and even by some scientists when communicating with the general public. But in the doing of science it has a precise meaning: a theory is an explanation of known facts, a coherent accounting of gathered data.

Natural selection is a theory. A theory of evolution. It's been much refined and updated since Darwin's time and will continue to be so in response to more data and more thorough analysis. Evolution itself, though, is an observable parameter of biological reality. It's visible in the fossil record and in the DNA of past & present lifeforms. We can make it happen in the laboratory. It's as real as liquid water is wet.

Political implications of this, if any? IMO that's for politicians to deal with.

-Dave-
« Last Edit: November 11, 2016, 05:46:48 pm by Telecaster »
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Telecaster

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #189 on: November 11, 2016, 05:53:55 pm »

Some data for those of you who might be interested. The 2016 numbers aren't final but are pretty close to it.

Voter Turnout 2012
Total: 129.2m
Obama: 65.9m
Romney: 60.9m
3rd party: 2.4m

Voter Turnout 2016
Total: 127.5m (so far)
Clinton: 60.6 (-5.3m)
Trump: 60.1 (-824K)
3rd party: 6.8m (+4.4m)
   Johnson: 4.1m
   Stein: 1.3m
   Other: 1.4m

-Dave-
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #190 on: November 11, 2016, 09:33:57 pm »

You got to watch this:

Who's to blame for Trump? The left!

https://www.facebook.com/viralthread/videos/598130190359668/

Zorki5

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #191 on: November 11, 2016, 10:34:05 pm »

You got to watch this:

Who's to blame for Trump? The left!

https://www.facebook.com/viralthread/videos/598130190359668/

So f*** true. And yet they keep looking elsewhere -- in fact, everywhere except in a mirror.

Good Lord, we even have this: 'Crazy' to say Facebook helped Trump win - Zuckerberg

 ::)
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Alan Klein

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #192 on: November 11, 2016, 11:49:21 pm »

You got to watch this:

Who's to blame for Trump? The left!

https://www.facebook.com/viralthread/videos/598130190359668/

Thank God for the secret ballot.  Funny that Trump didn't care.  His thumbing his nose at political correctness was refreshing even if grating.  It often made you feel queasy. 

But now that he's won, he has corrected his speech.  Note how he mainly complements everyone.  Many years ago, long before he got into politics, I noticed how he always seemed to complement people even if they disagreed with him, even with competitors.   He seemed to operate on the principal that you catch more flies with honey than vinegar.  As a businessman myself, I took notice because I saw he was very successful and wondered how he operated.   Now he's falling back into that way of expressing himself.  Complementing Obama, Hillary, Bill and others.  Even Putin.  Building up their ego.  Making them feel good about themselves and Trump.  I think you're going to see a lot more of that.  He will build bridges to Congress, especially the Democrats.  Sane with foreign leaders.  People are going to realize what an act he put on for the election.  His persona was all hyperbole.

Tarnash

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #193 on: November 12, 2016, 02:29:41 am »

You got to watch this:

Who's to blame for Trump? The left!

https://www.facebook.com/viralthread/videos/598130190359668/
Wow!  I think he absolutely nailed that.  Thanks for the link.
As for the current status of evolution as `theory'.... Well yes, yes it is.   But so is our current understanding of gravity......hummmm!   
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Zorki5

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #194 on: November 12, 2016, 02:40:29 am »

You got to watch this:

Who's to blame for Trump? The left!

https://www.facebook.com/viralthread/videos/598130190359668/

Same thing on YouTube (the original, I guess), I find it more comfortable to watch there (I have to admit I watched it several times...):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG9g7BcjKs

And, yes, if one still blames Facebook, FBI, moon phase etc., they have to watch this.
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Manoli

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #195 on: November 12, 2016, 06:00:44 am »

Good to see an American appreciation of English humour some much needed levity...

« Last Edit: November 12, 2016, 06:13:03 am by Manoli »
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jeremyrh

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #196 on: November 12, 2016, 09:03:33 am »

I have no problem with Pence stating this as his belief
I have no problem with Pence stating this as his belief. I have a big problem with someone in power having such a stupid belief.
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jfirneno

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #197 on: November 12, 2016, 09:48:03 am »

Some data for those of you who might be interested. The 2016 numbers aren't final but are pretty close to it.

Voter Turnout 2012
Total: 129.2m
Obama: 65.9m
Romney: 60.9m
3rd party: 2.4m

Voter Turnout 2016
Total: 127.5m (so far)
Clinton: 60.6 (-5.3m)
Trump: 60.1 (-824K)
3rd party: 6.8m (+4.4m)
   Johnson: 4.1m
   Stein: 1.3m
   Other: 1.4m

-Dave-

Looks to me like >4MM Obama voters preferred third party voting to Hillary.  That's a pretty big protest vote (possibly the hard core Bernie voters).  Interesting thing will be to see what happens when you subtract the illegal voters.  2020 will be a good test.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #198 on: November 12, 2016, 10:10:55 am »

Same thing on YouTube (the original, I guess), I find it more comfortable to watch there (I have to admit I watched it several times...):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG9g7BcjKs

And, yes, if one still blames Facebook, FBI, moon phase etc., they have to watch this.

Hi,

While I agree with large parts of his analysis rant, he skips one important reason why Trump got elected. He was the nominated presidential candidate of the Republican party, so they are to blame for not coming up with a better candidate.

In addition, they are also partly to blame for the disgruntlement of large groups in the population, because they tried everything possible to block any progress that could have come from an across-the-aisle / bi-partisan cooperation in congress, with the sole purpose of making Obama fail. Thus a monster of Frankenstein, Trump, was created and he got out of their control.

Other very valid reasons for Trump's election are indeed the superficial one-sided 'information' (due to so-called bubble filtering) people tend to get from the internet (Facebook/Google search hides alternative opinions/views based on one's prior searches/likes), and the simple fact that large groups of persons didn't vote for Trump, but they voted for the Republican candidate (regardless, or despite, of who that was). It seems that very few Republicans voted for a non-republican candidate. I think that the total turnout of voter numbers (as a percentage of growing population) was even lower than the previous election(s), so that would magnify the motivated (in part protest) voter's influence.

That is not to say that there is no reason for being disappointed in previous governments, but that's the USA for ya. A dwindling middle class is the result, and the gap between haves and have-nots is only going to increase. Blaming only one of the flavors of government is too simple, both are responsible for neglecting the people and going after personal gain and future lobbying positions. I do encourage to take notice of the TED talks by Lawrence Lessig, like the one about Lesterland.

A basically 2 party system is also something that is not really helpful in mitigating the ill-thought through (or dubiously motivated) plans of either ruling party, so decisions (that could have been amended prior to implementation) by one government can be overturned by the next. This is not good for efficiency, predictability, and trust in government. In a somewhat different political system where coalitions (between several parties that in total represent a larger majority of the population) need to be forged to get laws to pass, there tends to be a more predictable evolution in lawmaking, gradually adapting to progressive insights that come with experience.

Anyway, Trump got elected, and that's what the system produced. People often tend to get the government that they deserve..., too bad that the rest of the world (that obviously had no say in the matter) also get to endure some of the negative consequences.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: November 12, 2016, 01:04:22 pm by BartvanderWolf »
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Chairman Bill

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #199 on: November 12, 2016, 10:15:07 am »

Just noticed that. Is that a not-so-thinly vailed hope for a Trump's assassination?

How do you get from a simple statement of fact, to the idea that I might be hoping for it? I meant precisely what i said. I might have said a heart attack, a stroke, alien abduction & a failure to return him. The point is that one event could leave Pence in charge, a man for whom evidence means very little (despite his law background), at least where it contradicts his mythological fancies. Evidence-based policy on climate change? Forget it; Jesus is coming to take the good boys & girls off to a special place, so why worry about the future of the planet? At least Trump is able to understand that it doesn't make good business sense to utterly trash the place.
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