Poll

Your prediction, not your vote.

Clinton
- 9 (69.2%)
Trump
- 4 (30.8%)
Hung college
- 0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 13


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Author Topic: Election predictions  (Read 79681 times)

James Clark

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #80 on: November 10, 2016, 11:27:05 am »

You have hit on what is probably THE most divisive issue in US politics that no one knows about or understands.

As Americans we are generally pragmatic. We want things to get done. Pragmatism connotes sleeves rolled up, full steam ahead. It sounds like a character asset.

But pragmatism has another side. For most liberal leaders pragmatism trumps principle. For most conservatives principle trumps pragmatism. Principle is often times less effective and less efficient. Pragmatism often steps on constitutional freedoms and pushes ethical limits to get the job done.

Conservatives will tolerate great risk to preserve freedom. Liberals will concede freedoms for security.

So the way we look at pragmatism is, to me, incredibly important and always telling.

I believe you are incorrectly defining liberal pragmatism, and romanticizing conservative pragmatism.  I suspect we could compromise somewhere in the area of "meddle in American's lives as little as possible" if you could convince conservatives that some Americans will have lifestyles and make choices you may not like, and I could convince liberals that equality of opportunity is no guarantee of equality of outcome.  Of course, we'd probably still disagree on was "as little as possible" means, but greater minds than mine have managed to bridge that issue before.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 11:35:29 am by James Clark »
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James Clark

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #81 on: November 10, 2016, 11:33:27 am »

Well, we do not really know what that popular vote is. Or, to be precise, what it could have been had the campaigns fought for the popular vote, instead of the electoral college one. The current statistic on the popular vote is simply a byproduct of the current game rules.

I've honestly never heard that particular rationalization before.   As I said above, I don't dispute the legitimacy of our electoral methodology - it is what it is, and for the most part it's worked as intended with a few wrinkles along the way.   But people, attitudes, needs, wants and values spread across all borders, real and those that are just drawn on a map.  I could easily move some arbitrary lines a few miles one direction or another and come up with a wholly different outcome - that's basically gerrymandering, and it happens all the time.  But as a cohesive whole, the raw vote says what the raw vote says, and that message is that you should not assume that Trump's ideas are favored by most Americans.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #82 on: November 10, 2016, 11:45:06 am »

...  I could easily move some arbitrary lines a few miles one direction or another...

The argument that I put forward is not about doodling, but about federalism. This is the United States of America, a federal organism, with 50 individual states, that have certain elements of sovereignty. Hence the electoral college. You want a popular vote? Get rid of the states first.

Election campaigns concentrate time, money and resources toward winning the electoral college. Has the game been to win the popular vote, time, effort, money, and resources would have been deployed differently. Therefore, we do not really know what the popular vote would be in such a case. Simple, no?

Rhossydd

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #83 on: November 10, 2016, 11:50:54 am »

Recently younger physicians in England threatened to strike because of pay differentials.
Wrong. It was a far more complicated issue than that.
In fact they did go on strike. No one died and a few people were inconvenienced on a few days.
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India has a huge, growing industry of cash only medicine designed for Europeans, mainly Brits, who could not get desired care at home.
I really don't know where you get your information from, but this is pretty much insignificant.
The only significant amount of Brits going overseas for 'treatment' are those seeking cosmetic and dental surgery which is cheaper overseas. It's hardly critical healthcare and only a tiny minority of the total amount of healthcare done on Brits.

The National Health Service is not perfect, but most of it's issues are due to underfunding. The vast majority of us would happily pay more tax to help fund the NHS, but successive governments are too scared to put taxes up and the problem of underfunding continues.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #84 on: November 10, 2016, 12:05:50 pm »

I've honestly never heard that particular rationalization before.   As I said above, I don't dispute the legitimacy of our electoral methodology - it is what it is, and for the most part it's worked as intended with a few wrinkles along the way.   But people, attitudes, needs, wants and values spread across all borders, real and those that are just drawn on a map.  I could easily move some arbitrary lines a few miles one direction or another and come up with a wholly different outcome - that's basically gerrymandering, and it happens all the time.  But as a cohesive whole, the raw vote says what the raw vote says, and that message is that you should not assume that Trump's ideas are favored by most Americans.

It's not a rationalization because you never heard of it.  I learned about it decades ago when I was a kid.  The reason you shouldn't put too much faith in measuring the popular vote against the electoral vote  is because as was said the candidates don't campaign the same way they do as with an Electoral system.  With Electoral, they spend most of their time in swing states like Ohio and Florida.  For example, take states like California, Oregon and Washington.  Everyone knew they were going electorally Democrat.  So Trump spent no time there trying to change voters minds. However, if the President was elected by popular vote, Trump would have campaigned there and there could have been more people going Republicans raising his popular vote.  So with an electoral system, raw popular vote is distorted and does not equate necessarily to Electoral vote. although most of the time it does. 

Also, keep in mind that if you go only with the popular vote, then you could argue that since neither candidate had more than 50% or a majority, then neither candidate actually got a majority.  Both Hillary and Trump got less than 50%.   That would create an argument for even less of a mandate for the winner.  The Constitution using the Electoral system is set up so that it takes  a majority percent to win.  You have to get more than 50% so there's actually a public view that a majority did elect the President.   Of course the losers always point to the popular vote when these things happen.  But popular has its problems too. 


Background: The US is a Federal system of  sovereign states.  So there is some bias built into the Electoral system to equal out the strength of each state despite population.  That's similar to the Senate where each state has two senators regardless of how many people live in the state.  That's where the House of representative work as it's based on population of each state.  So small states have more electoral votes than their population would dictate. There would have to be a change in  the Constitution to amend it.  Small states won't vote for changing the Constitution and lose come of their power so it's not going to happen.
In any case, there's no way to now switch the vote to the popular.

RSL

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #85 on: November 10, 2016, 12:11:02 pm »

Hi George, The reason Trump did so well in this election is that the establishment, Democrats and Republicans, had turned on its people. Oh, not with military attacks and citizen roundups, but in what they thought were subtle ways. Turns out people were smart enough to penetrate the "subtlety."
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jfirneno

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #86 on: November 10, 2016, 12:14:41 pm »

I've honestly never heard that particular rationalization before.   As I said above, I don't dispute the legitimacy of our electoral methodology - it is what it is, and for the most part it's worked as intended with a few wrinkles along the way.   But people, attitudes, needs, wants and values spread across all borders, real and those that are just drawn on a map.  I could easily move some arbitrary lines a few miles one direction or another and come up with a wholly different outcome - that's basically gerrymandering, and it happens all the time.  But as a cohesive whole, the raw vote says what the raw vote says, and that message is that you should not assume that Trump's ideas are favored by most Americans.

Well actually since we have a winner take all situation in places like California or New York where the proportion of democrats is prohibitively high, many republicans will fail to vote because it is futile.  That is how the current electoral college system would make it impossible to say whether any particular national vote total is definitive.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #87 on: November 10, 2016, 12:15:06 pm »

One more note about Electoral.  .  Electors making up the "college" were voted for as decided by each state.  In the beginning many state had the legislators in their state elect the electors.  There was no popular vote.  States have changed that now allow electors by popular vote.  Although interesting, Maine split the elector vote.  Not sure about other states.  But this i another major effect of the final vote since almost all state electors for their state vote the same way even though only one side has one more vote than the other.  If we had a popular vote nationally, the power of large state like California would be diminished as the votes would  go to each candidate as the popular votes went. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #88 on: November 10, 2016, 12:18:32 pm »

Well actually since we have a winner take all situation in places like California or New York where the proportion of democrats is prohibitively high, many republicans will fail to vote because it is futile.  That is how the current electoral college system would make it impossible to say whether any particular national vote total is definitive.
  That's a great point that I forgot about.  Thanks for reminding me.  As a New Yorker who votes Republican,  I've been voting for years for no point.  But there are plenty of NY Republicans who just don't vote because they know their vote isn't going to matter.  If we went to a popular vote, they would vote changing the final popular count.

N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #89 on: November 10, 2016, 12:22:22 pm »

But it's fundamentally incorrect to assume that the American people as a whole (or even as a majority) are behind the Trump agenda.

Agreed. America was not voting for Trump as much as they were voting against Obama and HRC and the status quo. You can debate this all day but right or wrong that is the way that the left and the right are reading this election. Again, I voted for neither of them so I'm not defending a position.

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We concur - saying "pass the bill, then read it" would be insane if that's what was said in chambers.  Of course, that's not accurate.  Here's what was actually said (to a nonprofit association, not to Congressional lawmakers, by the way).

Irrelevant. It is not so much that a sound bite is taken out of context. The truth is that most lawmakers who passed this bill had little or no idea what was in there and most still do not. I spoke, one-on-one, sit down, in person with a powerful House Democrat prior to the bill passing. He was stumping all over the state in support of the bill. He knew very little about the nuts and bolts of it and admitted it. He knew far less about it than I did. (He lost his seat that year, by the way. He'd held it for several decades)

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That said, I hope you will accept that from my position (again, as an employer,  multiple business owner, and annual group plan administrator) that there are fundamental aspects of the ACA that people do appreciate, and will be problematic to eliminate.

I certainly cannot deny that. But at what cost? How many others were hurt? Just look at the stats quoted by the Huffington Post in the article I cited.

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So here's my takeaway.  First, I by and large disagree with many typical conservative positions.  Second, that said, my disagreements fall heavily on the social side of issues, not necessarily the fiscal or administrative side.  My sincere hope is that, freed of being the "opposition party" who is forced to oppose ideas simply because they come from Democrats, the Republican congress can do a better job of actually governing, rather than impeding, and that they will prioritize things that can, and should benefit most Americans, and not waste time pushing a social agenda that frankly, most of America disagrees with.  If they are really for small government, and efficient government, let's see it.

That is a noble hope. I am not optimistic. I too view most if not all politicians with contempt and much of our current government with apprehension. I expect Trump to be a terrible leader. I expect the elected Republicans to continue to profiteer just as their Democrat counterparts do and to take the easy road on most matters of principle.  My hope is mostly to be left alone. (And to defer any thought that I'm not civic minded, I've served in the military, have been involved with local government and donate a large chunk of my income to church and charities). Like most conservatives I just want the government out of my house, off my property and out of my work place. That cannot be, of course, but it is all a matter of degree.
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George

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N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #90 on: November 10, 2016, 12:27:35 pm »

Wrong. It was a far more complicated issue than that.

Just because there was an actually strike and that it was more complicated than I stated hardly makes me wrong. Beside the point anyway. It happened.

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The only significant amount of Brits going overseas for 'treatment' are those seeking cosmetic and dental surgery which is cheaper overseas. It's hardly critical healthcare and only a tiny minority of the total amount of healthcare done on Brits.

Incorrect. Heart transplants, aneurysm repairs, cholecystectomies, reconstructive breast surgery after mastectomy, just to name a few.

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The National Health Service is not perfect, but most of it's issues are due to underfunding.

That is the mantra of all government shortcoming.

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George

"What is truth?" Pontius  Pilate

N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #91 on: November 10, 2016, 12:29:45 pm »

Hi George, The reason Trump did so well in this election is that the establishment, Democrats and Republicans, had turned on its people. Oh, not with military attacks and citizen roundups, but in what they thought were subtle ways. Turns out people were smart enough to penetrate the "subtlety."

Agreed.
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George

"What is truth?" Pontius  Pilate

scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #92 on: November 10, 2016, 12:31:02 pm »

Background: The US is a Federal system of sovereign states. 
the last time some of them tried to actually exercise some sovereignty it ended up with a bloody mess... so whom you are kidding ?
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scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #93 on: November 10, 2016, 12:43:07 pm »

The argument that I put forward is not about doodling, but about federalism. This is the United States of America, a federal organism, with 50 individual states, that have certain elements of sovereignty. Hence the electoral college. You want a popular vote? Get rid of the states first.

"elements of sovereignty" does not preclude a popular vote for the federal president for as long as there will be a simple change in constitution ...
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #94 on: November 10, 2016, 12:49:00 pm »

... a simple change in constitution ...

Yes, easy-peasy! But it should be real simple, so that every time one side is unhappy about the current rules of the game, they should be able to change it back and forth real simple and quick.

scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #95 on: November 10, 2016, 12:49:27 pm »

  That's a great point that I forgot about.  Thanks for reminding me.  As a New Yorker who votes Republican,  I've been voting for years for no point.  But there are plenty of NY Republicans who just don't vote because they know their vote isn't going to matter.  If we went to a popular vote, they would vote changing the final popular count.

and you forgot that at the same time many people who 'd otherwise vote Dem in a federal popular vote are not going to vote in NY or CA because they think it will be their candidate anyways... it goes both ways
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scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #96 on: November 10, 2016, 12:51:19 pm »

Yes, easy-peasy!

not easy in the sense of actually passing that change using the current system how US constitution is amended of course ...

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pegelli

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #97 on: November 10, 2016, 02:00:28 pm »

and you forgot that at the same time many people who 'd otherwise vote Dem in a federal popular vote are not going to vote in NY or CA because they think it will be their candidate anyways... it goes both ways
And it also applies to democrats not voting in iron-clad republican states. How motivated do you think a democratic Texan is to cast his vote for the democratic presidential candidate?

But, I agree with what others said here, popular vote is an unimportant byproduct in this election because the campaigns and results would be totally different when the rules would be that the president is elected by popular vote. It's just another indication that the US is a divided country with two camps who can't stand each other and as long as that remains about half the people will feel frustrated and not represented, but without looking at popular vote that is clear as well.

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pieter, aka pegelli

Rhossydd

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #98 on: November 10, 2016, 02:09:53 pm »

Just because there was an actually strike and that it was more complicated than I stated hardly makes me wrong.
It does because you stated that it was about pay differentials, it wasn't at all.
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Incorrect. Heart transplants, aneurysm repairs, cholecystectomies, reconstructive breast surgery after mastectomy, just to name a few.
Yes, some of this does happen in isolated cases, but it's such a tiny percentage of the overall numbers of those procedures performed to UK residents it's insignificant.

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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #99 on: November 10, 2016, 02:37:52 pm »

This is how my vote didn't count:

As I moved from Illinois to Indiana, I had the option to register to vote in IN. I didn't for this election, as it would not matter. Regardless who I voted for, my vote didn't matter (note: IL votes predominantly Democrats, and IN predominantly Republican).

If I wanted to vote for Hillary, she would win in IL and lose in IN anyway

If I wanted to vote for Trump, he would lose in IL and win in IN anyway

I did vote in IL as a matter of principle, as it was my first vote in the States.

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