Poll

Your prediction, not your vote.

Clinton
- 9 (69.2%)
Trump
- 4 (30.8%)
Hung college
- 0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 13


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Author Topic: Election predictions  (Read 79712 times)

Rob C

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #60 on: November 10, 2016, 04:58:25 am »

Medical problems used be a theory for me; at the age of sixty-five they came home to roost.

For years we paid for private insurance in Spain, and eventually it saved my life. It also saved that of my wife on several occasions, but one such time she was rushed to a state hospital because it was closer to us - and we were eligible - and the treatment she discovered there was every bit as good as that we'd been paying through the nose to get. So we cancelled the private policy.

My opinion? I think that the private system kept me in hospital far longer than I needed to be so as to milk the insurance company. I also remember the time when my wife was taken down to the operating theatre and a while later I was called from her room, where I was waiting, to the reception office. When I got there, they told me there was a problem with the insurance, and that they couldn't get clearance for the operation... Eventually they sorted it out and the op went ahead. Afterwards, my wife told me she lay there on the table, listening to a verbal fight about her going down in the anteroom where the medics were. Wonderful stuff. So much for money and medicine, insurance companies and doctors and private hospitals.

I have come to believe that a state-funded (meaning paid for by taxation) system, is the only one with any sense of morality attached. Most things cost so much money in medicine that only the well off can hope to pay what it takes. That can't be right where health is concerned. Having said which, I most certainly would prevent health tourism from happening. I would also exclude people who indulge in self-harm, which in my book, covers smoking, alcohol abuse and the cola products. A start could be made by putting bloody high taxes on the latter pair, and banning tobacco altogether, as it has absolutely nothing going for it that's positive.

It's so easy to be clinical and harsh about people and rights, but just wait if you ever happen to be in life-or-death need yourself. Sweet theory flies off to hide somewhere else.

Rob

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #61 on: November 10, 2016, 07:56:21 am »

The problem with the insurers having a stake in the policy decision making is the same issue we've had with them for years. They have a single-directed end goal: to make as much money as they possibly can...

Insurers, like other enterprises, maximize profit in two ways: by increasing revenue or by lowering cost (and, obviously, any combination of the two). Their revenues are consumer premiums and their cost are charges by medical providers. In other words, even as they keep rising our premiums, they are simultaneously our defense against sky-rocketing medical costs, as it is equally in their interest to pay less to hospitals etc.

scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #62 on: November 10, 2016, 07:59:15 am »

The other referendum: Obamacare. America has spoken.
I (white, male, legal immigrant, college degree, registered Democrat, never was unemployed in USA, etc) voted for Trump and I have nothing against "ObamaCare" in principle (I actually pro such kind of program with much more legal enforcement for people to sign up instead of taking their good chances w/o insurance) and I voted for Trump for other reasons (but I do understand that voting such might end up as well in ending "ObamaCare" instead of making it better)... there are certainly people who voted for the Crooked H and who are against "ObamaCare", but "America has spoken" lacks any logic...
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Chris Calohan

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #63 on: November 10, 2016, 08:25:28 am »

America farted in a closed room and now they are forced to live with the stench for four years.
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Rob C

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #64 on: November 10, 2016, 08:43:15 am »

America farted in a closed room and now they are forced to live with the stench for four years.


As Buddy Bolden sang: "Open up the windows, let the bad air out!"

Rob C
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 10:49:15 am by Rob C »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #65 on: November 10, 2016, 08:55:17 am »

I'd be careful about assuming a conservative mandate when the popular vote isn't reflective of the electoral outcome...

Well, we do not really know what that popular vote is. Or, to be precise, what it could have been had the campaigns fought for the popular vote, instead of the electoral college one. The current statistic on the popular vote is simply a byproduct of the current game rules.

N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #66 on: November 10, 2016, 09:25:05 am »

The popular vote thing is the sour grapes of every loser and given the tenets of the electoral college it is utterly irrelevant. Last I saw the delta was about 200k. Mighty slim. The mandate occurred elsewhere. The House and the Senate come to mind. The bigger mandate is evidenced by Hillary's defeat despite the enormous political machinery at her disposal through the liberal media. Prior to the election a study done by the mainstream media showed a 91% media bias for her. The mandate is also evidenced by who beat her: a dirty little egomaniac.

Too many people are still drinking the Obamacare kool-aid. No matter how you feel about it, it is not and never was sustainable. It was shriveling up after just a few years. This ridiculous mantra about 20 million people being insured is a joke. I see these people in my office every day since I accept all of the ACA exchanges. Their deductibles are huge and they are already poor. They can't afford anything outside of a simple office visit and most of them are unhappy since Obama lied about them being able to keep their doctor. Most other physicians in the area do not take the exchanges (because they pay poorly).And none of them have this mythical $75 dollar a month plans. They are paying at a level nearly as high as just getting regular high deductible plans. What will happen to these 20 million if Obamacare goes away? Well, the obvious think is to allow catastrophic care plans again. Duh. The other issue with the ACA is that it burdened physicians with MOUNTAINS of meanigless bureaucratic paperwork. Net result? Our ability to see patients went down by 20%. That means that there are 20% fewer appointments available. The burden became such that we quit working on nights and weekends. It does not matter what kind of insurance you have if you lose access to your physician. All as a direct result of the ACA.

Now, if you feel that what we need is a single payer system then say so. Demand it. Straight up. Quit hiding behind hybrid bureaucratization and just socialize the system. But, it did not work for Hillary the first time and after the ACA Americans will not stomach it. And here's a hint: They shouldn't. you want to know what socialized medicine will look like in the US? The Veterans Administration. It is THE model for how the US does socialized medicine and it is quite simply a nightmare and a disgrace. And it has been for 40 years! Need another vision of socialized medicine in the US? Just think about your typical experience at the DMV or the Social Security Office. That's all you need to know. But, if that's how liberals think we can solve our health care issues, by all means, go for it.

Frankly, it is so bad, it needs to go regardless whether we have a plan to replace it or not. And that is no less insane than saying "pass the bill, then read it", right?
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 09:31:20 am by N80 »
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scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #67 on: November 10, 2016, 09:57:20 am »

The popular vote thing is the sour grapes of every loser and given the tenets of the electoral college it is utterly irrelevant. Last I saw the delta was about 200k. Mighty slim. The mandate occurred elsewhere. The House and the Senate come to mind. The bigger mandate is evidenced by Hillary's defeat despite the enormous political machinery at her disposal through the liberal media. Prior to the election a study done by the mainstream media showed a 91% media bias for her. The mandate is also evidenced by who beat her: a dirty little egomaniac.

Too many people are still drinking the Obamacare kool-aid. No matter how you feel about it, it is not and never was sustainable. It was shriveling up after just a few years. This ridiculous mantra about 20 million people being insured is a joke. I see these people in my office every day since I accept all of the ACA exchanges. Their deductibles are huge and they are already poor. They can't afford anything outside of a simple office visit and most of them are unhappy since Obama lied about them being able to keep their doctor. Most other physicians in the area do not take the exchanges (because they pay poorly).And none of them have this mythical $75 dollar a month plans. They are paying at a level nearly as high as just getting regular high deductible plans. What will happen to these 20 million if Obamacare goes away? Well, the obvious think is to allow catastrophic care plans again. Duh. The other issue with the ACA is that it burdened physicians with MOUNTAINS of meanigless bureaucratic paperwork. Net result? Our ability to see patients went down by 20%. That means that there are 20% fewer appointments available. The burden became such that we quit working on nights and weekends. It does not matter what kind of insurance you have if you lose access to your physician. All as a direct result of the ACA.

Now, if you feel that what we need is a single payer system then say so. Demand it. Straight up. Quit hiding behind hybrid bureaucratization and just socialize the system. But, it did not work for Hillary the first time and after the ACA Americans will not stomach it. And here's a hint: They shouldn't. you want to know what socialized medicine will look like in the US? The Veterans Administration. It is THE model for how the US does socialized medicine and it is quite simply a nightmare and a disgrace. And it has been for 40 years! Need another vision of socialized medicine in the US? Just think about your typical experience at the DMV or the Social Security Office. That's all you need to know. But, if that's how liberals think we can solve our health care issues, by all means, go for it.

Frankly, it is so bad, it needs to go regardless whether we have a plan to replace it or not. And that is no less insane than saying "pass the bill, then read it", right?

Hillary's defeat does not have Obamacare as a primary reason likewise Trump's victory does not have whatever he said about Obamacare as a primary reason...
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RSL

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #68 on: November 10, 2016, 10:16:46 am »

Sounds to me more like a threat . . .
-Dave-

You'd better believe it's a threat, Dave.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #69 on: November 10, 2016, 10:21:38 am »

Hillary's defeat does not have Obamacare as a primary reason...

Here is a chart that might explain her defeat better. Relative to Obama, she lost women's vote (!!!), young vote, the poor vote, rural vote and Hispanic vote.

While Trump, relative to Romney, gained the poor, rural and Hispanic vote (!)

Alan Klein

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #70 on: November 10, 2016, 10:23:28 am »

Hillary's defeat does not have Obamacare as a primary reason likewise Trump's victory does not have whatever he said about Obamacare as a primary reason...

Getting rid of Obamacare was one of Trump's main arguments for people to vote for him.  So Yes, is has to be assume it was a primary reason. Other main reasons were trade, immigration and getting the economy going by reducing regulation and taxes.  Did I miss anything?

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #71 on: November 10, 2016, 10:25:34 am »

Getting rid of Obamacare was one of Trump's main arguments for people to vote for him...

Nope. Not even remotely.

And you missed getting rid of PC lunacy.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #72 on: November 10, 2016, 10:42:47 am »

Too good not to share... reactions to Trump's win across the world: :D

Alan Klein

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #73 on: November 10, 2016, 10:44:46 am »

However, my sense is that the overall  reason Trump won is something less tangible, not from any specific policies.  Enough people were fed up with the elite classes in business. the media and politics who have conspired with each other to feather their own nest at the expense of the general public.  The general public has been lied too and sold a bill of goods.  Fortunately enough people were smart enough to see through the bias and smoke and mirrors.  The vote for Trump, the Outsider, loudmouth, bull-in-the-china shop, was what his voters wanted to shake up the entrenched classes and both the Democrat and Republican establishments.  Sometimes you have to tear things down and start fresh. 

Think about it.  A single individual, with no real support from his own party beat first the Bush dynasty then the Clinton dynasty and 16 other people of various political stripes along the way.  He beat the media and all those lined up against him.  He did it spending very little money.  To argue that he got free media exposure just shows how smart he is.  The people were ready after years of being lied too and used by all these forces aligned against them.  Even the many people who voted for Hillary knew she was part of the problem of the establishment.  Of course they bought into the name calling against Trump supported by a biased media.  But I think once Trump takes over, they're gong to see him as a generally reasonable man that's going to help the country.  The way he thanked Hillary for her service to the country in his acceptance speech and his other calm statements show that much of his bravura speech during the campaign was done for effect, just to show the world and the voters that he can shake things up and get things done.  In any case, let's all be patient and see how it all develops.

N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #74 on: November 10, 2016, 10:52:02 am »

Hillary's defeat does not have Obamacare as a primary reason likewise Trump's victory does not have whatever he said about Obamacare as a primary reason...

That is patently absurd. Trump campaigned constantly citing repeal of Obamacare. That is simply undeniable. Further, most of the House and Senate Republican victories were based, in part, on repeal of Obamacare. Hillary was silent on the issue. To deny Obamacare as 1) a divisive issue in the nation AND 2) a major part of this campaign is beyond bizarre.

But take a look here if you are still confused. This is from that right wing rag the Huffington Post:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-geyman/affordable-care-act-implo_b_12894720.html

Of course, the conclusion is that because the ACA was a huge unmitigated disaster that we should socialize the system the way Europe has. Again, Americans will not buy that. At least not in the face of the ACA snafu. And the reporter above continues the foolish comparison with Europe's socialized medicine as if it was all peaches and cream in Europe. It is not. Recently younger physicians in England threatened to strike because of pay differentials. India has a huge, growing industry of cash only medicine designed for Europeans, mainly Brits, who could not get desired care at home. Many, if not most, European economies are buckling under the weight of their social programs. And then there is the elephant in the room so many people overlook: Europe has the money to fund socialized medicine only because they do not have huge fiscal needs for the large standing armies that would be required to keep Russia out of their back yards. The US foots that bill. This was pointed out by a BBC journalist about a year ago. If the US was not there keeping the Russian's in check, Germany and France would need very large, very expensive militarys that would put huge constraints on their economies.

But if its socialized medicine the US public wants, well, let's go for it. It will be the last great governmental power grab. What else is left? But don't forget, the same folks that brought you the ACA, your elected government, will be in charge of your only source for healthcare. Have fun with that.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 11:06:22 am by N80 »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #75 on: November 10, 2016, 10:55:05 am »

Too good not to share... reactions to Trump's win across the world: :D
  Love it.

N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #76 on: November 10, 2016, 11:09:02 am »

America farted in a closed room and now they are forced to live with the stench for four years.

Nah, after the last 8 years most Americans are nose blind. We can't smell a thing anymore.
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N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #77 on: November 10, 2016, 11:20:39 am »

I'd list "unbridled pragmatism" as an asset, not a shortcoming :)

You have hit on what is probably THE most divisive issue in US politics that no one knows about or understands.

As Americans we are generally pragmatic. We want things to get done. Pragmatism connotes sleeves rolled up, full steam ahead. It sounds like a character asset.

But pragmatism has another side. For most liberal leaders pragmatism trumps principle. For most conservatives principle trumps pragmatism. Principle is often times less effective and less efficient. Pragmatism often steps on constitutional freedoms and pushes ethical limits to get the job done.

Conservatives will tolerate great risk to preserve freedom. Liberals will concede freedoms for security.

So the way we look at pragmatism is, to me, incredibly important and always telling.
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James Clark

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #78 on: November 10, 2016, 11:21:43 am »

The popular vote thing is the sour grapes of every loser and given the tenets of the electoral college it is utterly irrelevant. Last I saw the delta was about 200k. Mighty slim. The mandate occurred elsewhere. The House and the Senate come to mind. The bigger mandate is evidenced by Hillary's defeat despite the enormous political machinery at her disposal through the liberal media. Prior to the election a study done by the mainstream media showed a 91% media bias for her. The mandate is also evidenced by who beat her: a dirty little egomaniac.

Not sour grapes at all - I'm not denying the legitimacy of the election.  I'm making the point that, on the whole, more Americans voted for HRC than Donald Trump.  Assigining arbitrary state line boundaries around certain grouping so people doesn't change that fact.  As for the House and Senate, Democrats picked up seats in both chambers.  Note that I'm certainly not claiming that this is an overwhelming mandate in the other direction - it's not.  But it's fundamentally incorrect to assume that the American people as a whole (or even as a majority) are behind the Trump agenda.

Too many people are still drinking the Obamacare kool-aid. No matter how you feel about it, it is not and never was sustainable. It was shriveling up after just a few years. This ridiculous mantra about 20 million people being insured is a joke. I see these people in my office every day since I accept all of the ACA exchanges. Their deductibles are huge and they are already poor. They can't afford anything outside of a simple office visit and most of them are unhappy since Obama lied about them being able to keep their doctor. Most other physicians in the area do not take the exchanges (because they pay poorly).And none of them have this mythical $75 dollar a month plans. They are paying at a level nearly as high as just getting regular high deductible plans. What will happen to these 20 million if Obamacare goes away? Well, the obvious think is to allow catastrophic care plans again. Duh. The other issue with the ACA is that it burdened physicians with MOUNTAINS of meanigless bureaucratic paperwork. Net result? Our ability to see patients went down by 20%. That means that there are 20% fewer appointments available. The burden became such that we quit working on nights and weekends. It does not matter what kind of insurance you have if you lose access to your physician. All as a direct result of the ACA.

Now, if you feel that what we need is a single payer system then say so. Demand it. Straight up. Quit hiding behind hybrid bureaucratization and just socialize the system. But, it did not work for Hillary the first time and after the ACA Americans will not stomach it. And here's a hint: They shouldn't. you want to know what socialized medicine will look like in the US? The Veterans Administration. It is THE model for how the US does socialized medicine and it is quite simply a nightmare and a disgrace. And it has been for 40 years! Need another vision of socialized medicine in the US? Just think about your typical experience at the DMV or the Social Security Office. That's all you need to know. But, if that's how liberals think we can solve our health care issues, by all means, go for it.

Frankly, it is so bad, it needs to go regardless whether we have a plan to replace it or not. And that is no less insane than saying "pass the bill, then read it", right?

We concur - saying "pass the bill, then read it" would be insane if that's what was said in chambers.  Of course, that's not accurate.  Here's what was actually said (to a nonprofit association, not to Congressional lawmakers, by the way).

Quote
“You’ve heard about the controversies, the process about the bill…but I don’t know if you’ve heard that it is legislation for the future – not just about health care for America, but about a healthier America,” she told the National Association of Counties annual legislative conference, which has drawn about 2,000 local officials to Washington. “But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it – away from the fog of the controversy.”

As to your other contentions, I defer to your expertise and first-hand experience regarding the effects you've seen.   For what it's worth, and I believe I conceded this before, I believe implementation has been poor.  I believe that fault falls on both sides of the isle - on the Democrats for promising things that could not reasonably be delivered, and on Republicans for trying to hamstring and impede the deliverables that actually were possible. That said, I hope you will accept that from my position (again, as an employer,  multiple business owner, and annual group plan administrator) that there are fundamental aspects of the ACA that people do appreciate, and will be problematic to eliminate.

So here's my takeaway.  First, I by and large disagree with many typical conservative positions.  Second, that said, my disagreements fall heavily on the social side of issues, not necessarily the fiscal or administrative side.  My sincere hope is that, freed of being the "opposition party" who is forced to oppose ideas simply because they come from Democrats, the Republican congress can do a better job of actually governing, rather than impeding, and that they will prioritize things that can, and should benefit most Americans, and not waste time pushing a social agenda that frankly, most of America disagrees with.  If they are really for small government, and efficient government, let's see it.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 11:28:39 am by James Clark »
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N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #79 on: November 10, 2016, 11:24:51 am »

You'd better believe it's a threat, Dave.

I have always been amazed that Americans cannot conceive of their government ever becoming their enemy. We have a great government now and have had for a long time. But there are very few examples of large national governments that never turned on their citizens in some catastrophic way. To deny the possibility and fail to see the signs is short sighted, historically blinded, foolish and dangerous. Our forefathers knew this and said so, explicitly.
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