Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine

[Robert Roaldi]

... What would Biden do if they have proof China caused the leak from the lab?  What if it was deliberate?

What would Biden do? Beats me. Maybe the current revival of the topic is part of a campaign to apply pressure on China, so maybe he's already doing it. Be a good plot for a spy novel, wouldn't it?

But I am having a hard time imagining a scenario where China would deliberately leak a virus into its own population. What would be the upside of that?

[JoeKitchen]

What would Biden do? Beats me. Maybe the current revival of the topic is part of a campaign to apply pressure on China, so maybe he's already doing it. Be a good plot for a spy novel, wouldn't it?

We have learned, over the last 30 years, through multiple administrations, that the only thing we know China will respond to are tariffs.  Talks behind the scenes have been tried by Obama, Bush and Clinton, and they all failed, just like they will fail with Biden.  Tariffs and sanctions are the only tactic we know of that gets results. 

Furthermore, I was listening to a former Obama admin (leftie), being interview with Ben Shapiro (rightie), suggesting that we should revisit our US corporation charter rules in which we hand out with the assumption that the corporation will get special status for doing good for the country, and start taking away those special statuses if they engage in dealings with China that threatens the country.  Of course the devil is in the details, but it is something that could help as well and could get bipartisan support. 

[Robert Roaldi]

... that the corporation will get special status for doing good for the country, and start taking away those special statuses if they engage in dealings with China that threatens the country  ...

I thought there already were strict rules about electronics, military secrets wrt trade, so what "dealings" would you have in mind here that are not already covered by those rules?

[Alan Klein]

What would Biden do? Beats me. Maybe the current revival of the topic is part of a campaign to apply pressure on China, so maybe he's already doing it. Be a good plot for a spy novel, wouldn't it?

But I am having a hard time imagining a scenario where China would deliberately leak a virus into its own population. What would be the upside of that?

I agree that it doesn't make sense.  Release would boomarang and infect the predator country that released it.  But that begs the question. Why research and adapt these viruses to make them more dangerous in the first place if there is no logic to release them?

[degrub]

Our self interest for the most part - being better prepared for when the next one jumps species.

1) understand how and why the host is not impacted by the virus,
2) understand the structure of the virus to make it easier to construct antibodies with a vaccine,
3) identify hosts that serve as reservoirs
4) understand how the virus infects humans and the impacts on different types of cells in our bodies.
5) have the possibility of earlier detection based on research above
6) reduce the human -  host animal interactions to reduce the chance of virus jumping.

IF the lab workers had gotten infected by accident and unintentionally passed it on to others, while maybe incompetent recognition and mitigation, it very likely would not have been intentional. But we don't have those details and may never. Mild symptoms seem to occur in most cases and very much like the common cold from what i hear.
So they may not have known or suspected anything different until larger number of cases started turning up. By then, due to global travel, the pandemic was on. 

[Alan Klein]

Our self interest for the most part - being better prepared for when the next one jumps species.

1) understand how and why the host is not impacted by the virus,
2) understand the structure of the virus to make it easier to construct antibodies with a vaccine,
3) identify hosts that serve as reservoirs
4) understand how the virus infects humans and the impacts on different types of cells in our bodies.
5) have the possibility of earlier detection based on research above
6) reduce the human -  host animal interactions to reduce the chance of virus jumping.

IF the lab workers had gotten infected by accident and unintentionally passed it on to others, while maybe incompetent recognition and mitigation, it very likely would not have been intentional. But we don't have those details and may never. Mild symptoms seem to occur in most cases and very much like the common cold from what i hear.
So they may not have known or suspected anything different until larger number of cases started turning up. By then, due to global travel, the pandemic was on. 

If the Chinese were innocently studying the virus for all those positive reasons., why did they deny they were studying it? Maybe they had other ulterior reasons such as studying them for biological warfare.  In the old days, attacking conquerors would throw infected human bodies over the town's defensive walls they were attacking to infect their enemy to weaken their soldiers.  This could be just a modern version of it.  China Communist party under Mao killed over twenty million of their own people.  Do you think they care about foreigners? The fact is they hid the dangers of the disease for over five weeks, maybe since October 2019,  sending infected Chinese travelers to the rest of the world while shutting down travel within China.  Doesn't sound like too much concern to me.

[Alan Klein]

Pressure mounts to investigate, from both parties.

Senate passes bill requiring Biden admin to declassify intel on COVID-19 origins
The Senate has unanimously approved a measure requiring the federal government to declassify intelligence on the origins of COVID-19.
https://nypost.com/2021/05/27/senate-approves-measure-forcing-declassification-of-covid-intel/

[degrub]

If the Chinese were innocently studying the virus for all those positive reasons., why did they deny they were studying it? Maybe they had other ulterior reasons such as studying them for biological warfare.  In the old days, attacking conquerors would throw infected human bodies over the town's defensive walls they were attacking to infect their enemy to weaken their soldiers.  This could be just a modern version of it.  China Communist party under Mao killed over twenty million of their own people.  Do you think they care about foreigners? The fact is they hid the dangers of the disease for over five weeks, maybe since October 2019,  sending infected Chinese travelers to the rest of the world while shutting down travel within China.  Doesn't sound like too much concern to me.

Never mind. 

[TechTalk]

Never mind.

Often the best choice when you don't want to ride an endless merry-go-round or become stuck in the mud.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Unraveling China's "sinister plan" to "unleash coronavirus"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-A_OPWa5VI

[TechTalk]

Unraveling China's "sinister plan" to "unleash coronavirus"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-A_OPWa5VI

Outstanding find! Thanks for sharing it! I only hope everyone watches it as it is very revealing.

[Robert Roaldi]

Interesting summary article about the new calls to investigate the Wuhan lab, https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-wuhan-lab-leak-theory-1.6042038. Basically, no new real information has emerged recently to revive this issue, so why is it back. There might be a good reason and there might not. Feels like I'm witnessing a propaganda war. Am I too cynical?

[Chris Kern]

Basically, no new real information has emerged recently to revive this issue, so why is it back. There might be a good reason and there might not. Feels like I'm witnessing a propaganda war. Am I too cynical?

I think there is a fairly straightforward explanation for the revived interest in the "lab escape" theory and it is precisely because no new real information has emerged.

Once again we have senior appointive officials in the U.S. federal government who are experienced in dealing with scientific findings and intelligence analyses.  It's natural for them to ask whether there is definitive evidence for the presumed zoonotic origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.  The answer from the scientists is "no."  The answer from the intelligence agencies reportedly is "we cannot rule out the 'lab escape' theory."

"No definitive evidence" and "can't rule out" should be interpreted literally.  These are the consensus judgments of experts whose expertise consists, among other things, in being able to distinguish between what they know and what they think is probable.

Understanding the origin of this new coronavirus is an important element in developing policies for preparing for the next new pathogen.  Since the pandemic is suspected to have been caused by animal-to-human transfer but the evidence is not yet definitive, rational policy-makers inevitably would request that both sets of experts continue to research the issue.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Outstanding find! Thanks for sharing it! I only hope everyone watches it as it is very revealing.

Peter Hadfield (potholer54) is a science journalist who takes a methodical approach that, in this age of disinformation, is refreshing. I try to use the same methods, finding the source document. Even the conclusions of scientific papers can be misquoted in news media. It's just time-consuming, having to do the work that serious media should do.

He has already made a series of videos about Covid19, that are interesting to watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-A_OPWa5VI&list=UUljE1ODdSF7LS9xx9eWq0GQ

One of them is only too recognizable, "Another side-effect of Covid-19: Stupidity":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5inXVPS1Is

[Alan Klein]

I think there is a fairly straightforward explanation for the revived interest in the "lab escape" theory and it is precisely because no new real information has emerged.

Once again we have senior appointive officials in the U.S. federal government who are experienced in dealing with scientific findings and intelligence analyses.  It's natural for them to ask whether there is definitive evidence for the presumed zoonotic origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The answer from the scientists is "no."   The answer from the intelligence agencies reportedly is "we cannot rule out the 'lab escape' theory."

"No definitive evidence" and "can't rule out" should be interpreted literally.  These are the consensus judgments of experts whose expertise consists, among other things, in being able to distinguish between what they know and what they think is probable.

Understanding the origin of this new coronavirus is an important element in developing policies for preparing for the next new pathogen.  Since the pandemic is suspected to have been caused by animal-to-human transfer but the evidence is not yet definitive, rational policy-makers inevitably would request that both sets of experts continue to research the issue.

The evidence is the opposite.  There are no animals in the wild found to have the disease. The state of mutation of the virus that infected humans does not have animal markers expected at this stage of infection.  That leaves development in a lab. The Chinese are lying.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

The evidence is the opposite.  There are no animals in the wild found to have the disease. The state of mutation of the virus that infected humans does not have animal markers expected at this stage of infection.  That leaves development in a lab. The Chinese are lying.

They are not alone.

Did SARS-Cov-2 start in a Chinese lab?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ab-r0capbzk&list=UUljE1ODdSF7LS9xx9eWq0GQ&index=12

[Robert Roaldi]

I think there is a fairly straightforward explanation for the revived interest in the "lab escape" theory and it is precisely because no new real information has emerged.

Once again we have senior appointive officials in the U.S. federal government who are experienced in dealing with scientific findings and intelligence analyses.  It's natural for them to ask whether there is definitive evidence for the presumed zoonotic origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.  The answer from the scientists is "no."  The answer from the intelligence agencies reportedly is "we cannot rule out the 'lab escape' theory."

"No definitive evidence" and "can't rule out" should be interpreted literally.  These are the consensus judgments of experts whose expertise consists, among other things, in being able to distinguish between what they know and what they think is probable.

Understanding the origin of this new coronavirus is an important element in developing policies for preparing for the next new pathogen.  Since the pandemic is suspected to have been caused by animal-to-human transfer but the evidence is not yet definitive, rational policy-makers inevitably would request that both sets of experts continue to research the issue.

I can accept all that. Now that we seem to be on the downslope side of this, good time for a debrief, see what went wrong. Difficult to sort things out though in an environment when everyone has an axe to grind, not easy to extract a signal from the noise. I hope that the science can withstand the politics.

[TechTalk]

Peter Hadfield (potholer54) is a science journalist who takes a methodical approach that, in this age of disinformation, is refreshing. I try to use the same methods, finding the source document. Even the conclusions of scientific papers can be misquoted in news media. It's just time-consuming, having to do the work that serious media should do.

He has already made a series of videos about Covid19, that are interesting to watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-A_OPWa5VI&list=UUljE1ODdSF7LS9xx9eWq0GQ

One of them is only too recognizable, "Another side-effect of Covid-19: Stupidity":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5inXVPS1Is

Thanks again. I took the opportunity, when watching the first video that you linked, to watch a few other recent videos on the channel. I was unaware of his YouTube channel, but I look forward to watching more of his content.

[Alan Klein]

I can accept all that. Now that we seem to be on the downslope side of this, good time for a debrief, see what went wrong. Difficult to sort things out though in an environment when everyone has an axe to grind, not easy to extract a signal from the noise. I hope that the science can withstand the politics.

Unfortunately, in an effort to make Trump look bad and blame him for the death and sickness because it was an election year particularly, Democrat's and the anti-Trump press ignored the real culprit - China.  Because of that, there's a huge incentive to bury the truth going forward rather than embarrassing all those who blamed the victims of the pandemic rather than the cause of it. So after Biden's 90 day investigation is done, they'll come up with no conclusive evidence.  After all China buried all that months ago.  Then everyone can forget what really happened and move on to the 2022 elections and blame Trump again.

[TechTalk]

While actual scientists continue to research the origins of COVID-19—which may continue for years—it's certainly been interesting to watch the current uncertainty weaponized into accusations against scientists by those with an axe to grind. Here's an interesting article...

https://massivesci.com/articles/sars-cov-coronavirus-covid19-lab-leak-hypothesis

If the question is “are both hypotheses possible?” the answer is yes. Both are possible. If the question  is “are they equally likely?” the answer is absolutely not. One hypothesis requires a colossal cover-up and the silent, unswerving, leak-proof compliance of a vast network of scientists, civilians, and government officials for over a year. The other requires only for biology to behave as it always has, for a family of viruses that have done this before to do it again. The zoonotic spillover hypothesis is simple and explains everything. It’s scientific malpractice to pretend that one idea is equally as meritorious as the other. The lab-leak hypothesis is a scientific deus ex machina, a narrative shortcut that points a finger at a specific set of bad actors. I would be embarrassed to stand up in front of a room of scientists, lay out both hypotheses, and then pretend that one isn’t clearly, obviously better than the other.

Besides the hazy science, there is an undeniable political aspect to this argument. When violence against Asian people in the US is spiking, it’s naive at best and violent gaslighting at worst to pretend that supporting an evidence-free hypothesis that clearly adds fuel to the idea that China inflicted COVID-19 upon the world, that they did this to us, is noble scientific dispassion. There’s a choice being made here between two ideas — one that falls neatly within the world of biology, and the other that knots together conspiracy theory, political intrigue, and xenophobia.

* Deus ex machina - a plot device whereby a seemingly unsolvable problem in a story is suddenly and abruptly resolved by an unexpected and unlikely occurrence. Its function is generally to resolve an otherwise irresolvable plot situation, to surprise the audience, to bring the tale to a happy ending, or act as a comedic device.