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Author Topic: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa  (Read 1327982 times)

JoeKitchen

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9820 on: April 09, 2021, 03:25:05 pm »

Most crimes are very different in that they don't involve the same emotional issues which cause people not to report sexual assault. I've owned cars that were parked and damaged by hit and run drivers that left no note or were broken into. I've had break-ins and property stolen in my home twice. I reported them without any of the feelings that victims of sexual assault have reported. I didn't have any mixture of emotions of shame, or guilt, or embarrassment, or fear of recriminations, or of not being believed, etc. in reporting the crimes that I've reported. I don't think that I can imagine how it would make me feel to be assaulted in that way. I doubt if anyone can.

Victims of sexual assault sometimes never come to terms with their emotions in a way that allows them to discuss their experience, let alone report it. For the ones that are able, it sometimes takes years of emotional work to do so.

Seems like you are going out of your way to make any and all stats on the subject completely invalid. 

Although everything you just posted is true, you cant really doing anything about it policy wise if you insist on making the subject arbitrary.  If you want to create policy based on feelings without some type of hard stats or evidence to reference, you will never get any kind of agreement not to mention we will just bounce back and forth from one extreme to the next, like we having been doing. 

I am looking at this not from a personal perspective, but from one to find common ground on policy.  If you want to just use emotion and empathy to determine policy, you'll get nowhere with the other side. 
« Last Edit: April 09, 2021, 03:36:47 pm by JoeKitchen »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9821 on: April 09, 2021, 03:26:58 pm »

That sounds rather narrow and extreme. Do you mean this as hyperbole or can you really not recall any degree of reasonable success in a federal program or action?
Bureaucracies are very inefficient compared to private business.  Everything costs more.  Capital is misallocated.   Programs tend to expand beyond their need.   They never end even when their need is over.  Sure they get things done,  but you have to live with these problems.

JoeKitchen

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9822 on: April 09, 2021, 03:35:04 pm »

That sounds rather narrow and extreme. Do you mean this as hyperbole or can you really not recall any degree of reasonable success in a federal program or action?

I take the Peter Thiel approach on federal government. 

Much like in private business, when a brand spanking new government agency is developed (not expanding an already existent one), it is state of the art and very efficient.  However, as time goes by, just like with private business, the efficiency decreases.  Unfortunately, unlike private business, there is no creative destruction and rebuilding of something new, whether it being from within (Microsoft does a good job of this) or outside.  Instead, it just ossifies over time.  Not on purpose, but because no politicians wants to destroy jobs, which is usually what is needed. 

So, just look at all of the agencies we have today, most of which started during or before the 1960s.  I am sure they worked well then, but not so much anymore. 

On top of that, we really dont have a culture of "ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country" anymore.  Perhaps I am just being a little too apocryphal with this, but I feel like it was more likely in the past that very smart and competent people felt it was duty to work in government, not just here but through out the world.  Now everyone wants those giant paychecks in private business. 

It's a long answer, and I'm not really being clear. 
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9823 on: April 09, 2021, 03:50:22 pm »

We don't have the money.  Unfortunately,  we spent it all and then some.

Thank you, that was my point. There is money to buy F-35s. There is money to give the 1% tax breaks. There is money to keep troops in Afghanistan for 20 years. There is tons of money, always is. You choose what to spend it on, is all.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9824 on: April 09, 2021, 03:55:49 pm »

Lighthearted Friday political diversion: Kansas politician DUI charge and police chase, https://www.startribune.com/criminal-charges-filed-against-kansas-senate-majority-leader/600039238/.

Being a suspicious sort of person, I'd like to keep tabs on what happens in the future to the cop who arrested him and the prosecutors who process him. But that's just me. :)

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TechTalk

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9825 on: April 09, 2021, 03:56:58 pm »

Seems like you are going out of your way to make any and all stats on the subject completely invalid. 

Although everything you just posted is true, you cant really doing anything about it policy wise if you insist on making the subject arbitrary.  If you want to create policy based on feelings without some type of hard stats or evidence to reference, you will never get any kind of agreement not to mention we will just bounce back and forth from one extreme to the next, like we having been doing. 

I am looking at this not from a personal perspective, but from one to find common ground.  If you want to just use emotion and empathy to determine policy, you'll get nowhere with the other side.

I haven't made any attempt to "make any and all stats on the subject completely invalid". Statistics on the total number sexual assaults that occur are difficult to ascertain with a high degree of accuracy due to the under reporting that occurs due to the the emotional responses of the victims resulting from the nature of the crime. I also didn't discuss any policies or policy decisions or how they are made.

What I did do was to inquire as to how and why you made the statement — "For example, many feminist will tell you 20% of college women are sexually assaulted, and believe it to be true.  The actual percentage is around 2%".  Because of you citing a ten-fold difference, it raised suspicion as to how you came up with that. You've explained how you did it and as a result, I can dismiss it due to the way that you arrived at what I think can be reasonably called an apples-to-oranges comparison of statistics. That's all I wanted to know and you explained it.
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TechTalk

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9826 on: April 09, 2021, 04:12:40 pm »

I take the Peter Thiel approach on federal government. 

Much like in private business, when a brand spanking new government agency is developed (not expanding an already existent one), it is state of the art and very efficient.  However, as time goes by, just like with private business, the efficiency decreases.  Unfortunately, unlike private business, there is no creative destruction and rebuilding of something new, whether it being from within (Microsoft does a good job of this) or outside.  Instead, it just ossifies over time.  Not on purpose, but because no politicians wants to destroy jobs, which is usually what is needed. 

So, just look at all of the agencies we have today, most of which started during or before the 1960s.  I am sure they worked well then, but not so much anymore. 

On top of that, we really dont have a culture of "ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country" anymore.  Perhaps I am just being a little too apocryphal with this, but I feel like it was more likely in the past that very smart and competent people felt it was duty to work in government, not just here but through out the world.  Now everyone wants those giant paychecks in private business. 

It's a long answer, and I'm not really being clear.

I understand where you're coming from and appreciate it. I tend to believe that there are usually legitimate concerns expressed in differing opinions on most subjects, including the role of government, and I generally lean toward balancing those concerns.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2021, 04:17:22 pm by TechTalk »
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9827 on: April 09, 2021, 06:04:23 pm »

Someone sent me this, I wouldn't normally come across it. It's a press release from a Coronavirus Crisis Committee wrt political interference at CDC https://coronavirus.house.gov/news/press-releases/chair-clyburn-seeks-interviews-trump-administration-advisors-roles-pandemic.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9828 on: April 09, 2021, 11:22:05 pm »

I take the Peter Thiel approach on federal government. 

Much like in private business, when a brand spanking new government agency is developed (not expanding an already existent one), it is state of the art and very efficient.  However, as time goes by, just like with private business, the efficiency decreases.  Unfortunately, unlike private business, there is no creative destruction and rebuilding of something new, whether it being from within (Microsoft does a good job of this) or outside.  Instead, it just ossifies over time.  Not on purpose, but because no politicians wants to destroy jobs, which is usually what is needed. 

So, just look at all of the agencies we have today, most of which started during or before the 1960s.  I am sure they worked well then, but not so much anymore. 

On top of that, we really dont have a culture of "ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country" anymore.  Perhaps I am just being a little too apocryphal with this, but I feel like it was more likely in the past that very smart and competent people felt it was duty to work in government, not just here but through out the world.  Now everyone wants those giant paychecks in private business. 

It's a long answer, and I'm not really being clear. 
Worse than keeping government agencies going long past their time needed, is that the government is doing the same by bailing out zombie private companies.  Instead of letting these companies fail, the government is propping them up throwing good money after bad.  Why do we need all airlines to survive for example? They're not needed.  Even after COvid is gone, less people will be flying as Zoom reduces the need for business travel.

In free markets and capitalism, marginal companies fail. It's called creative destruction. That leaves remaining companies to grow stronger and employees to move on to do more productive work. Capital wasted in propping up marginal companies could have been spent on new industries like green or industries that haven't even been invented yet.  So private business becomes ossified as well as government agencies and worse, money is wasted instead of being allowed to create and grow new industries.  We become less competitive with foreign nations who spend their capital more wisely. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9829 on: April 09, 2021, 11:33:54 pm »

Thank you, that was my point. There is money to buy F-35s. There is money to give the 1% tax breaks. There is money to keep troops in Afghanistan for 20 years. There is tons of money, always is. You choose what to spend it on, is all.
Yes, we spent it on guns and butter. But there's no longer tons of money.  We're broke.  Half the budget is paid for with borrowed money or printed. Regardless of what we did with the money, it's gone.  We went from the biggest creditor nation in the world in the 1950s to the largest debtor nation in the world currently.  There's not enough tax money available to support the debt and promises the government has made with social security, medicare, and defense, NAto, carriers, F35's, Obamacare, etc.

When I suggested here to let Germany meet their 2% NATO commitment and pay for two more divisions of their own troops so American divisions can go home to save Americans money, everyone here laughed at me.  And now the administration is promising more trillions for infrastructure, green development, energy rebates, health care, etc.  There's not enough green ink.  The bill's come due.

Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9830 on: April 09, 2021, 11:43:39 pm »

Someone sent me this, I wouldn't normally come across it. It's a press release from a Coronavirus Crisis Committee wrt political interference at CDC https://coronavirus.house.gov/news/press-releases/chair-clyburn-seeks-interviews-trump-administration-advisors-roles-pandemic.
Meanwhile we now have the CDC getting involved in politics and social policy by claiming health is affected by systemic racism.  You know she was put to this by the Biden Administration.

This adds to the questions people raise about CDC politics and why their edicts aren't trusted.  Birx and others winged stuff under Trump pressure and now Walensky of the CDC is doing the same under Biden.  The CDC is becoming politicized and will lose its authority and trust.

Media Statement from CDC Director Rochelle P. Walensky, MD, MPH, on Racism and Health
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0408-racism-health.html

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9831 on: April 10, 2021, 09:17:28 am »

Yes, we spent it on guns and butter. But there's no longer tons of money.  We're broke.  Half the budget is paid for with borrowed money or printed. Regardless of what we did with the money, it's gone.  We went from the biggest creditor nation in the world in the 1950s to the largest debtor nation in the world currently.  There's not enough tax money available to support the debt and promises the government has made with social security, medicare, and defense, NAto, carriers, F35's, Obamacare, etc.

When I suggested here to let Germany meet their 2% NATO commitment and pay for two more divisions of their own troops so American divisions can go home to save Americans money, everyone here laughed at me.  And now the administration is promising more trillions for infrastructure, green development, energy rebates, health care, etc.  There's not enough green ink.  The bill's come due.

You could save a lot by shutting down half of your 700 military bases. That will still leave you a lot. And given that they're run by the government, they're probably very inefficient anyway so you won't be losing much.

Leaving aside all the polemics about wasteful inefficient government, a boring clichéd meme by now, the idea of comparing what government does to what the private sector does is a bit nonsense to begin with, though, isn't it? I mean, of course it's true that the government would do a lousy job of designing and building a smartphone (generally speaking), and that's why you don't assign those kinds of tasks to government. Much the same reason that you don't let real estate developers make long-term zoning decisions for a city, since they don't represent the citizens of that city.

It is true that the developers would not spend years and years trying accommodate the needs and desires of all the stakeholders the way a government has to, but you either believe in democratic decision making or you don't. It's often messy and time-consuming, nature of the beast. Applying the same metrics to the two sectors make little sense.

Your mantra "private good, government bad" is simple-minded and not useful. Also, as an aside, the attempts above to paint the federal government as especially bad is quite funny given the hilarious track record of incompetent state legislatures. I mean, guys, are you serious? Didn't one of your states attempt to redefine the value of 𝛑 once?

But I don't believe that you will solve these problems anytime soon. So long as you believe that it's ok to allow large corporate money to dominate political fund-raising, you are guaranteeing that governments will not be neutral, which is the aspirational ideal, imo. You yourself gave away your thinking on this a few pages ago. I forget the exact context buy you accused the Biden government of catering to unions, as though that were, in and of itself, a bad thing. That's an interesting point of view, it's as if you are a priori deciding that the wants and desires of one group of your fellow citizens, those who belong to unions, are not as important as the wants/desires of others. If you think it's ok, then, for some citizens to be more important than others, then your society is toast, since that more or less goes against the very idea of the American experiment, doesn't it? Or do you actually believe that rich people and large corporations really ARE more important than everyone else? Because, you know, that's not democracy, is it.
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faberryman

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9832 on: April 10, 2021, 09:53:20 am »

When I suggested here to let Germany meet their 2% NATO commitment and pay for two more divisions of their own troops so American divisions can go home to save Americans money, everyone here laughed at me.  And now the administration is promising more trillions for infrastructure, green development, energy rebates, health care, etc.  There's not enough green ink.  The bill's come due.

Two comments: first, we could spend less on NATO even if the European members don't spend more; and second, even when some of our European allies spend more on defense as happened in the past couple of years, our defense budget goes up, not down. It sounds a lot like you are blaming European NATO members for our own lack of fiscal discipline.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2021, 09:59:15 am by faberryman »
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9833 on: April 10, 2021, 10:10:21 am »


When I suggested here to let Germany meet their 2% NATO commitment and pay for two more divisions of their own troops so American divisions can go home to save Americans money, everyone here laughed at me.  And now the administration is promising more trillions for infrastructure, green development, energy rebates, health care, etc.  There's not enough green ink.  The bill's come due.

You have been harping on this aspect for a long time now. If it's a bad deal, walk away. Is it the case that Germany asks you to stay there, but then refuses to pay? Is it the case you want to be there? I'm sure the answer is not that clearcut, since it lies in post WW2 history. But you know, that was a long time ago now, maybe the whole thing needs a rethink.

If Germany wants to defend its borders, maybe that should be Germany's responsibility. Otherwise, in some sense what's going on is that the US government is treating its own military as some kind of profit-centre mercenary army that it rents out to other countries. If you're not getting paid enough for that service, that's on you. Shouldn't Trump have been the kind of guy who would have done something about that? I mean, what the hell was Hannity advising him on during those daily phone calls, TV make-up?

This brings up something else that I thought of. Does the US pay land rental on those German bases? I'm not saying they should pay retail, I would understand a sweetheart government to government deal, but I bet there are a lot of German real estate developers who might want that land to build condos, strip malls, bowling alleys and such. Couldn't those US soldiers do all work on the web back at home, free up the land for private commercial use, you know, create jobs and such. Could it be that the cheap land rental offsets the costs of military deployment there? Maybe it's not the case that Germany owes the US money for Nato defence, maybe the US needs to pay up some rent arrears. Which is it?
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9834 on: April 10, 2021, 10:11:21 am »

... We're broke.  ...

No, you're not.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9835 on: April 10, 2021, 10:11:28 am »

You could save a lot by shutting down half of your 700 military bases. That will still leave you a lot. And given that they're run by the government, they're probably very inefficient anyway so you won't be losing much.

Leaving aside all the polemics about wasteful inefficient government, a boring clichéd meme by now, the idea of comparing what government does to what the private sector does is a bit nonsense to begin with, though, isn't it? I mean, of course it's true that the government would do a lousy job of designing and building a smartphone (generally speaking), and that's why you don't assign those kinds of tasks to government. Much the same reason that you don't let real estate developers make long-term zoning decisions for a city, since they don't represent the citizens of that city.

It is true that the developers would not spend years and years trying accommodate the needs and desires of all the stakeholders the way a government has to, but you either believe in democratic decision making or you don't. It's often messy and time-consuming, nature of the beast. Applying the same metrics to the two sectors make little sense.

Your mantra "private good, government bad" is simple-minded and not useful. Also, as an aside, the attempts above to paint the federal government as especially bad is quite funny given the hilarious track record of incompetent state legislatures. I mean, guys, are you serious? Didn't one of your states attempt to redefine the value of 𝛑 once?

But I don't believe that you will solve these problems anytime soon. So long as you believe that it's ok to allow large corporate money to dominate political fund-raising, you are guaranteeing that governments will not be neutral, which is the aspirational ideal, imo. You yourself gave away your thinking on this a few pages ago. I forget the exact context buy you accused the Biden government of catering to unions, as though that were, in and of itself, a bad thing. That's an interesting point of view, it's as if you are a priori deciding that the wants and desires of one group of your fellow citizens, those who belong to unions, are not as important as the wants/desires of others. If you think it's ok, then, for some citizens to be more important than others, then your society is toast, since that more or less goes against the very idea of the American experiment, doesn't it? Or do you actually believe that rich people and large corporations really ARE more important than everyone else? Because, you know, that's not democracy, is it.
I don't believe in welfare for the rich and crony capitalism any more than I believe in government bailing out unions.  That's just a misallocation of capital as when the government decides that green energy is the up-and-coming industry.  Let free markets decide.  It, not government, has made social media and cameras what they are today.  Let crappy corporations fall by the wayside when they no longer are producing.  That would free up investment capital for better and new industries.  The employees who lost their jobs would move to other companies and create more wealth for themselves and the country instead of wasting their time in a marginal or dead "zombie" company. Many would start their own businesses hiring even more people.

Much of the money the American government gives out has nothing to do with democracy, or shouldn't.  We're a constitutional republic, not a democracy.  Giving out the money to corporations and unions in my opinion is unconstitutional.  The founders worried that the public would vote for themselves all this "free" stuff.  That's exactly what's happening and it's breaking the bank and the printing presses.  It all seems good until you wake up the next morning with an awful hangover.

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9836 on: April 10, 2021, 10:15:11 am »

I don't believe in welfare for the rich and crony capitalism any more than I believe in government bailing out unions.  That's just a misallocation of capital as when the government decides that green energy is the up-and-coming industry.  Let free markets decide.  It, not government, has made social media and cameras what they are today.  Let crappy corporations fall by the wayside when they no longer are producing.  That would free up investment capital for better and new industries.  The employees who lost their jobs would move to other companies and create more wealth for themselves and the country instead of wasting their time in a marginal or dead "zombie" company. Many would start their own businesses hiring even more people.

Much of the money the American government gives out has nothing to do with democracy, or shouldn't.  We're a constitutional republic, not a democracy.  Giving out the money to corporations and unions in my opinion is unconstitutional.  The founders worried that the public would vote for themselves all this "free" stuff.  That's exactly what's happening and it's breaking the bank and the printing presses.  It all seems good until you wake up the next morning with an awful hangover.

I don't know what you mean by "government bailing out unions".

But aren't you contradicting yourself because in the past you have been ok with governments paying money in various forms to attract Amazon to move?
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9837 on: April 10, 2021, 10:16:20 am »

Two comments: first, we could spend less on NATO even if the European members don't spend more; and second, even when some of our European allies spend more on defense as happened in the past couple of years, our defense budget goes up, not down. It sounds a lot like you are blaming European NATO members for our own lack of fiscal discipline.
I've suggested pulling out of NATO totally.  It's no longer the 1950s.  WWII is long over.  The Soviet Union is gone.  Eastern Europe is free.  All of Europe is wealthy.  They can afford to protect themselves.  China's a bigger problem.  We should be making deals with Russia. Trump's gone. Let's start acting smart.

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9838 on: April 10, 2021, 10:22:53 am »

I've suggested pulling out of NATO totally.  It's no longer the 1950s.  WWII is long over.  The Soviet Union is gone.  Eastern Europe is free.  All of Europe is wealthy.  They can afford to protect themselves.  China's a bigger problem.  We should be making deals with Russia. Trump's gone. Let's start acting smart.

If everything is hunky dory, why are you complaining about Germany only spending 2% on defense?
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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #9839 on: April 10, 2021, 10:25:55 am »

I don't know what you mean by "government bailing out unions".

But aren't you contradicting yourself because in the past you have been ok with governments paying money in various forms to attract Amazon to move?
The US government bailed out the Autoworkers Union in the 2008 crisis by supporting GM.  I think it was around one billion, chicken feed by today's standards.

Frankly, the new giveaway of $86 billion for employee pensions might help me and my wife. I'm not sure, so maybe I shouldn't complain.  See how we all want free stuff?  Even me.  :)

Rescue Package Includes $86 Billion Bailout for Failing Pensions
Democrats pushed through a big aid measure for multiemployer pensions whose problems predate the pandemic.

Tucked inside the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill that cleared the Senate on Saturday is an $86 billion aid package that has nothing to do with the pandemic.

Rather, the $86 billion is a taxpayer bailout for about 185 union pension plans that are so close to collapse that without the rescue, more than a million retired truck drivers, retail clerks, builders, and others could be forced to forgo retirement income.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/07/business/dealbook/bailout-pensions-stimulus.html
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