Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[Alan Klein]

The reason to bring it up is simply to poiint out that Serbia is now in the grip of a 2nd wave, and that even though they fared well up to this point, they haven't found the miracle solution, slivovitz or other. 

As for the UK, we have the misfortune to be governed by an incomptent populist. You will be familiar with the way that goes.

Ah.  But you're an island.  You should do better. 

[jeremyrh]

Ah.  But you're an island.  You should do better. 

We should indeed, but we didn't. Direct flights from Wuhan were landing at Heathrow with no check of passengers.

[Alan Klein]

You still haven't got it - if you don't do something to slow or stop the disease, an exponentially increasing number of people will get it, of which a percentage will need hosptalisation and a percentage will die.  So there is no parallel with the highways, where a roughly constant number of people die per year.

What does increasing stats have to do with anything?  If you're dead, you're dead.  35,000 or so Americans die on the highways every year.  Stop driving and save 35,000 lives annually.  That's 350,000 in ten years.  A third of a million people. More than COvid to date.  Is it worth it? 

How's this as an in-between approach?  No personal cars.  Everyone has to use public transportation.  We'll save let's say 25,000 lives annually.  Why shouldn't we do it?  Isn't it worth it?  Apparently, most people don't think so.  They're willing to take a chance to drive to work to feed their families.  Well, people are willing to take a chance with Covid to go to work so they can feed their families.  So the in-between approach is to wear masks, for the most part, and try t isolate.  We're still going to have deaths.  It seems that's as far as governors and citizens want to go.

[Alan Klein]

We should indeed, but we didn't. Direct flights from Wuhan were landing at Heathrow with no check of passengers.

Those are the Chinese passengers Trump didn't stop who went on to NYC to infect New Yorkers.  He only shut down travel direct from China on the west coast.  By the time they figured it out, it was too late.

[Robert Roaldi]

We all know that.  So what do you do?

Instead of endlessly repeatedly asking the same questions, why don't you listen to that Joe Rogan podcast interview with Nicholas A. Christakis that I posted a link to above. He addresses all the issues that you bring up with all the latest and best information available. And before you ask, no, I will not summarize a 2.5 hour conversation for you even if I could. Sometimes there is no summary, you have to listen to all the details because they're relevant. Don't tell me you don't have the time because you spend a lot of time now lecturing us about Keynesian economics and cultural aspects of non-American cultures. If you have the time to learn those things, surely you have the time to listen to someone knowledgeable in the area that you are asking questions about.

The preceding assumes that you actually want to know the best current thinking and that you're not just trolling. Only you can know that.

[chez]

The dilemma is do you shut down the entire economy to avoid it?  That's the question and debate.  Do you shut down driving to avoid death on the highways?   Similar question.

What about something as simple as wearing masks, keeping your distance, staying away from crowds and washing your hands. Surely people could have done these without shutting down any economy. Not doing these, IE: following Chetos lead, you get into an out of control mess where further measures need to be used.

Surely Alan you must understand this.

[Robert Roaldi]

Those are the Chinese passengers Trump didn't stop who went on to NYC to infect New Yorkers.  He only shut down travel direct from China on the west coast.  By the time they figured it out, it was too late.

Please let this go. We live in a modern world where people travel a lot.

[kers]

If you're dead, you're dead.

agreed !

35,000 or so Americans die on the highways every year.  Stop driving and save 35,000 lives annually.  That's 350,000 in ten years.  A third of a million people. More than COvid to date.  Is it worth it? 

Following you logic;

everyday a car accident involving 1500-2000 people...

1500 deaths a day= about  550.000 deaths a year... 15 years of car accidents.... in one year.

[chez]

What does increasing stats have to do with anything?  If you're dead, you're dead.  35,000 or so Americans die on the highways every year.  Stop driving and save 35,000 lives annually.  That's 350,000 in ten years.  A third of a million people. More than COvid to date.  Is it worth it? 

How's this as an in-between approach?  No personal cars.  Everyone has to use public transportation.  We'll save let's say 25,000 lives annually.  Why shouldn't we do it?  Isn't it worth it?  Apparently, most people don't think so.  They're willing to take a chance to drive to work to feed their families.  Well, people are willing to take a chance with Covid to go to work so they can feed their families.  So the in-between approach is to wear masks, for the most part, and try t isolate.  We're still going to have deaths.  It seems that's as far as governors and citizens want to go.

But Alan you'd have way more deaths every year on the road except it's been legislated to wear seatbelts and most do...doesn't that sound a lot like people wearing masks to save lives.

[chez]

Those are the Chinese passengers Trump didn't stop who went on to NYC to infect New Yorkers.  He only shut down travel direct from China on the west coast.  By the time they figured it out, it was too late.

You keep saying this...but by far the most people arriving from abroad were Americans coming home...some with the virus attached. There were no plans in place to isolate or at the very least monitor these arrivals...so the virus just spread throughout the USA.

You love to blame China whenever you can...but it was the US poor or non existent processes that was the biggest cause.

[Alan Klein]

What about something as simple as wearing masks, keeping your distance, staying away from crowds and washing your hands. Surely people could have done these without shutting down any economy. Not doing these, IE: following Chetos lead, you get into an out of control mess where further measures need to be used.

Surely Alan you must understand this.

But we're doing that to the best degree we can for who we are.  People are not supposed to speed or drive drunk either.  But they do.  Jumping up and down complaining about it doesn't seem to change behavior very much.  We're not Chinese.

[jeremyrh]

What does increasing stats have to do with anything?  If you're dead, you're dead.  35,000 or so Americans die on the highways every year.  Stop driving and save 35,000 lives annually.  That's 350,000 in ten years.  A third of a million people. More than COvid to date.  Is it worth it? 

Driving kills 35K per year - this year, next year, every year.  Covid with shutdown killed 250k this year and without a vaccine etc we might expect it to kill 250k every year. Without shutdown those figures are higher and get higher and higher every year until everyone's had it, some probably many times. Which part don't you follow?

[Robert Roaldi]

35,000 or so Americans die on the highways every year.  Stop driving and save 35,000 lives annually.  That's 350,000 in ten years.  A third of a million people. More than COvid to date.  Is it worth it?

What a silly analogy.

How many more people would have died without air bags and seat belts and modern emergency departments serviced by professional paramedics and even modern highway design. Are those costs worth it? Maybe we shouldn't do those things? You tell me, do you think they are worth it.

The question really is why are YOU drawing the line at Covid. We spend all kinds of money on all kinds of things to improve our lives. Why, all of a sudden, should we stop spending the money for Covid? Why make that arbitrary distinction. if you're not going to take some steps to avoid mass contagion, then why bother putting air bags in cars. 35,000 deaths per year isn't THAT many, why not just let them die. Why bother enforcing standards of aircraft maintenance, in the big picture only a small percentage people fly.

[kers]

But we're doing that to the best degree we can for who we are.  People are not supposed to speed or drive drunk either.  But they do.  Jumping up and down complaining about it doesn't seem to change behavior very much.  We're not Chinese.

following your logic about drunk driving:

So you think it is a good idea to give people a fine when they do not follow anti covid rules ...

[Alan Klein]

Instead of endlessly repeatedly asking the same questions, why don't you listen to that Joe Rogan podcast interview with Nicholas A. Christakis that I posted a link to above. He addresses all the issues that you bring up with all the latest and best information available. And before you ask, no, I will not summarize a 2.5 hour conversation for you even if I could. Sometimes there is no summary, you have to listen to all the details because they're relevant. Don't tell me you don't have the time because you spend a lot of time now lecturing us about Keynesian economics and cultural aspects of non-American cultures. If you have the time to learn those things, surely you have the time to listen to someone knowledgeable in the area that you are asking questions about.

The preceding assumes that you actually want to know the best current thinking and that you're not just trolling. Only you can know that.

So you expect me to listen to your 2 1/2 hour podcast after calling me a troll?  Good psychology.   

In any case, no one is asking to summarize every point.  I don't do that either when I post an article and discuss it.  I pick out one or two salient points.  Can't you do that?  After all, if I did listen, I wouldn't want to discuss every point he made nor would you want to.

[Alan Klein]

agreed !

Following you logic;

everyday a car accident involving 1500-2000 people...

1500 deaths a day= about  550.000 deaths a year... 15 years of car accidents.... in one year.

You're playing games with statistics. Slobodan explained this earlier.  You're using the worse daily statistic and multiplying by 365 days.  It's the total count that's important and so far it's 250,000.  Hopefully, with the vaccines, it will end soon.  The regular annual flu kills an average of around 35,000 annually.    No one even gets excited about it and it occurs every year.  It won't stop as Covid will. Everyone shrugs their shoulders.

[Alan Klein]

But Alan you'd have way more deaths every year on the road except it's been legislated to wear seatbelts and most do...doesn't that sound a lot like people wearing masks to save lives.

I agree with you.  But most people do wear masks when they're with other people.  Just like most people wear seat belts.  Maybe what we need is a bell to go off like in a car when you don't put on your seat belt. It drives you crazy until you do.  Come up with a product like that for masks, and you'll make millions. 

[chez]

You're playing games with statistics. Slobodan explained this earlier.  You're using the worse daily statistic and multiplying by 365 days.  It's the total count that's important and so far it's 250,000.  Hopefully, with the vaccines, it will end soon.  The regular annual flu kills an average of around 35,000 annually.    No one even gets excited about it and it occurs every year.  It won't stop as Covid will. Everyone shrugs their shoulders.

Don't forget there is a yearly vaccine for the flu...so people do care about it.

[Alan Klein]

I agree with you.  But most people do wear masks when they're with other people.  Just like most people wear seat belts.  Maybe what we need is a bell to go off like in a car when you don't put on your seat belt. It drives you crazy until you do.  Come up with a product like that for masks, and you'll make millions. 

Here's one that might help.  A mask with two breath detectors.  One for the nose and one for the mouth.  When it doesn't sense them, the mask vibrates until you put it on properly.  That should help Biden a lot.  You can have a built-in solar sensor to provide power. 

[Robert Roaldi]

So you expect me to listen to your 2 1/2 hour podcast after calling me a troll?  Good psychology.   

In any case, no one is asking to summarize every point.  I don't do that either when I post an article and discuss it.  I pick out one or two salient points.  Can't you do that?  After all, if I did listen, I wouldn't want to discuss every point he made nor would you want to.

So, you don't actually want answers to your questions. Because they're all there, available for free. Instead, you want other people to read and listen and then summarize it all for you so you can reject the info and ask the same questions again the next day. Aren't you basically admitting that you're deliberately trying to waste everyone's time.