US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)

Biden

14 (66.7%)

Trump

7 (33.3%)

Total Members Voted: 21

Voting closed: November 02, 2020, 06:25:59 pm

[Peter McLennan]

Yes. But that requires an understanding of what polls are and what they are not. Polls give an indication of a probability of a result not a prediction of a result. On average in 2016, national polling was quite accurate regarding the popular vote. At the state level, results were less accurate, as they usually are, but not very far off from average polling error.

Still, the very slim margins (0.2% to 0.8%) in a few key states which were won by Trump were within the margin of polling error. Put another way, if Clinton had received just 1% more of the actual vote in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, she would have won the electoral vote in addition to her win of the popular vote.

One poll is just one sample taken of a moment in time. Individual pollsters vary in their historic accuracy and methodology. Poll aggregators are generally a better indicator of what a result may be... within the margin of error of course. Of the poll aggregators, 538 is my preference. They have a deep understanding of polling and statistical analysis. They have measured the accuracy of various pollsters and have ratings for them. They have sophisticated methods for weighting their poll averages and have a realistic outlook on polling.

Here's the headline of an article that 538 published just a few days before the election in 2016; "Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton" https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/  Their article the day after election day is also revealing... https://fivethirtyeight.com/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes   A 2018 analysis of the state of polling with a lot of data showing past error rates... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/

You can find the latest results from 538 here...  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Pollster ratings are located here...  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings

Excellent.  All of which goes to prove that Trump was elected by an anomaly of arithmetic, not by informed choice of the electorate. 

Hopefully, they'll have learned from their mistake.

[TechTalk]

Excellent.  All of which goes to prove that Trump was elected by an anomaly of arithmetic, not by informed choice of the electorate. 

Hopefully, they'll have learned from their mistake.

When asked about the polls today, part of Trump's stable genius reply was...

"When you look at Florida, as an example, you have thousands of boat out on — boats out in the ocean, out in the Intracoastal.  You look at other states where, likewise, you have thousands of boats, and they’re all waving the Trump sign — Trump-Pence sign — and they’re so proud.  Thousands and thousands.  You’ve seen it — where you have Bikers for Trump with lines that are miles long on highways going along on weekends."

I mean, what can you say in response to that?

[TechTalk]

The usual hype of the radical left.

the Washington Post. Way to go if brainwashing is what you like

There's a kid waiting for you to tell him to get off your lawn.

Just out of curiosity, do you give thoughtful consideration to something before you apply an ideological inflammatory label to it or only afterward?

[Alan Klein]

Yes. But that requires an understanding of what polls are and what they are not. Polls give an indication of a probability of a result not a prediction of a result. On average in 2016, national polling was quite accurate regarding the popular vote. At the state level, results were less accurate, as they usually are, but not very far off from average polling error.

Still, the very slim margins (0.2% to 0.8%) in a few key states which were won by Trump were within the margin of polling error. Put another way, if Clinton had received just 1% more of the actual vote in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, she would have won the electoral vote in addition to her win of the popular vote.

One poll is just one sample taken of a moment in time. Individual pollsters vary in their historic accuracy and methodology. Poll aggregators are generally a better indicator of what a result may be... within the margin of error of course. Of the poll aggregators, 538 is my preference. They have a deep understanding of polling and statistical analysis. They have measured the accuracy of various pollsters and have ratings for them. They have sophisticated methods for weighting their poll averages and have a realistic outlook on polling.

Here's the headline of an article that 538 published just a few days before the election in 2016; "Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton" https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/  Their article the day after election day is also revealing... https://fivethirtyeight.com/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes   A 2018 analysis of the state of polling with a lot of data showing past error rates... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/

You can find the latest results from 538 here...  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Pollster ratings are located here...  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings

You're re-writing electoral history.  Hillary was favored 10 to 1.  No one expected her to lose, including Trump.  Everyone was stunned. 

[budjames]

You're re-writing electoral history.  Hillary was favored 10 to 1.  No one expected her to lose, including Trump.  Everyone was stunned.

And the USA and the world is better for it!

If the armed guard of the Democratic Party (BLM and Antifa) are tearing down statues of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and others because of cancel culture mandates for owning slaves, then the Democratic Party must be canceled for their violent history of slavery, KKK, John Crow and for not giving one single vote to ratify the 14th and 15th amendments to the US Constitution.

Cheers,
Bud

[kers]

Never understood this;  "the winner takes it all "  attitude.
if you win by 0,1 % than you should also respect the wishes of this other part.
At least here in the Netherlands they do.
No wonder the US is getting more and more divided.

[Robert Roaldi]

You're re-writing electoral history.  Hillary was favored 10 to 1. ...

You might be re-writing a little history there yourself.

[faberryman]

I mean, what can you say in response to that?

He's completely lost it?

[Robert Roaldi]

Never understood this;  "the winner takes it all "  attitude.
if you win by 0,1 % than you should also respect the wishes of this other part.
At least here in the Netherlands they do.
No wonder the US is getting more and more divided.

That attitude is bizarre, isn't it. You would think that people would behave differently just because there's another election coming up in a few short years, so instead of only catering to the people who voted for you, you would benefit from establishing links with those who didn't. But these days sometimes it appears as though the emphasis is on punishing those voters instead. Pretty short-sighted, but then our culture is short-sighted.

I think of it as the old geezer syndrome. I'm old and I'm cranky and, goddammit, people are going to do what I tell them to. Religions are prone to this as are privately companies, being strictly hierarchical you can see how people at the top think they are right about everything. Do people want freedom, or do they really want freedom to conform?

[degrub]

He's completely lost it?

isn't that making a big assumption ? 

[faberryman]

isn't that making a big assumption ? 

You mean that he ever had it to begin with?

[Alan Goldhammer]

You're re-writing electoral history.  Hillary was favored 10 to 1.  No one expected her to lose, including Trump.  Everyone was stunned.

I expected her to either win by a slim margin or lose by a slim margin.  I was not stunned at all.

[Alan Goldhammer]

And the USA and the world is better for it!

If the armed guard of the Democratic Party (BLM and Antifa) are tearing down statues of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and others because of cancel culture mandates for owning slaves, then the Democratic Party must be canceled for their violent history of slavery, KKK, John Crow and for not giving one single vote to ratify the 14th and 15th amendments to the US Constitution.

Cheers,
Bud

It is difficult to tell if this post is sarcasm or the reflection of someone who knows very little about American history.

[Peter McLennan]

He's completely lost it?

That has long been the case.  Many simply refuse to acknowledge the fact.

[Peter McLennan]

When asked about the polls today, part of Trump's stable genius reply was...

"When you look at Florida, as an example, you have thousands of boat out on — boats out in the ocean, out in the Intracoastal.  You look at other states where, likewise, you have thousands of boats, and they’re all waving the Trump sign — Trump-Pence sign — and they’re so proud.  Thousands and thousands.  You’ve seen it — where you have Bikers for Trump with lines that are miles long on highways going along on weekends."

I mean, what can you say in response to that?

"Verbal dysentery."

[Alan Klein]

You might be re-writing a little history there yourself.

I was trying to make a point.  OK, so she had an 87% chance of winning one month before the election.  That's about 7 to 1? Then she went down to a still large
2 1/2 to 1  because of the server issue and her lies about her cell phone and lying about secrets.  But even then, no one was expecting her to lose.  Every expert was showing how Trump couldn't put together a way to win.  Until he did. 

[Alan Klein]

Here's the link on the odds. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[Alan Klein]

Never understood this;  "the winner takes it all "  attitude.
if you win by 0,1 % than you should also respect the wishes of this other part.
At least here in the Netherlands they do.
No wonder the US is getting more and more divided.

I assume the Netherlands is a Parliamentary type system where the PM is voted in by his fellow Ministers of Parliament. It doesn;t work that way here.  The COngress can be made up of a total separate party than the president.  So their position can be totally opposite what the president wants.  These checks and balances in our system is limited by a division of power between the legislature (The senate and house of representatives in Congress)and the president.  The Congress represents the people from every congressional district and state who sent them to Washington. Our founders set it up this way because they wanted to limit central power.  A Parliamentary system gives too much power to government because there's no real separation between the legislative and executive branches.  Of course, in America, we have had periods when they were all from the same party.  So unfortunately during those periods, many bad laws were passed as the party ran roughshod over the party out of power.  America is better off when there's a division so it's had to pass these stupid laws. 

[Alan Klein]

That attitude is bizarre, isn't it. You would think that people would behave differently just because there's another election coming up in a few short years, so instead of only catering to the people who voted for you, you would benefit from establishing links with those who didn't. But these days sometimes it appears as though the emphasis is on punishing those voters instead. Pretty short-sighted, but then our culture is short-sighted.

I think of it as the old geezer syndrome. I'm old and I'm cranky and, goddammit, people are going to do what I tell them to. Religions are prone to this as are privately companies, being strictly hierarchical you can see how people at the top think they are right about everything. Do people want freedom, or do they really want freedom to conform?

Nominees for president usually move to the middle right before elections in the hope they can pull off some votes from the other side.  It's why you see Trump wearing a mask and Biden coming out in favor of the working man.  Trump finds this difficult to do because he just started in politics four years ago.  Biden on the other hand, has been in politics so long he can change colors by the second like a chameleon and has forgotten who he is because of it. 

[kers]

... These checks and balances in our system is limited ...

Our PM is not able to get his friends out of jail...
But then there is no reason to put them in jail in the first place...
Our PM does not interfere with the work justice department - it is not possible. Any attempt would be the end of the line.
A man like Trump would not even make it to be chosen chaiman of the local football club, maybe bartender.