COVID-19 updates

[LesPalenik]

One of the first symptoms of corona, they say, is a lost sense of smell. A kind of blessing during illness. Now that I feel better, after 14 days in bed, and with the sense of smell back, I realized the true meaning of “toxic masculinity” 😉

A loss of smell can be caused also as a result of a head injury, for example in a car accident or falling when skating. The head injury can damage or destroy fibers of the olfactory nerves where they pass through the roof of the nasal cavity.
OTOH, it could be due also to aging. Most people notice a partial loss of smell by age 60. After age 70, the loss of smell is almost as serious as the onset of ED. But as long as you are not taking any chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine drugs, you don't have to worry about the toxic masculinity (or any loss in that department).

[Alan Klein]

I watched NYS Gov Andrew Cuomo in a couple of news conferences.  I never liked the Democrat.  I thought he was an opportunist, I guy who'd cut your heart out.  But I have to say, he came off very impressive, intelligent, tough, showing real leadership, a guy who can run things and get the job done unlike Biden who looked like he just got up from a nap.  The democrat party and America would have been a lot better off if Cuomo is nominated.  If Trump loses, we don't need a dope like Biden.

[armand]

Se need to educate patients. We need them to manage their expectations. They need to understand that the primary role of medical specialists is to spend their time on the Internet, hang out in forums, and post gazillion professional opinions, day after day, post after post, thread after thread, about... how bad the President of the US is.

Slobodan, the master of cheap shots. That's all you can do? You've got some nerve really, I got out of line when trying to take your rosy glasses off? Next time maybe Trump will release behavior guidelines; first rule is to not criticize the supreme leader.

Unfortunately or not, I am still off (the advantages of shift work) and we are not yet that busy for me to work extra, key word: yet. So in between things I waste my time here, trying to educate you. I know I will fail, but I you can relate to my profile picture.

[armand]

So what went wrong? How come the USA is now indicated by the WHO to be the next epicentre of the pandemic? Why has the USA not implemented the necessary measures on time?

Yes, the US was better prepared than others on some metrics, this has been posted on the past. Without the Fox spin, really I'm sure you can find better sources but for you guys it's all about the spin.

Problem is the administration took that relatively better preparedness and used it as toilet paper. As WHO said, no country is really prepared for pandemic, talk about a false sense of security.

[Alan Klein]

Congress passed $2 trillion rescue bill for economy last might.  So now we'll have even more money chasing fewer goods.  As prices go up, restaurants and other  businesses already under strain of no income will not recover as people stop buying their products and going out because the prices are too high and unemployment is in double digits.  Suppliers in Asia and Europe will be in the same position as their sales go down.  We could face a world-wide depression.  It's very bleak.  On the other hand, if the disease ends fairly quickly, we could recover.  But prices will still go up forcing many business to close permanently.  What a revolting situation this is.

What's happening in Europe with stimulus funding?  IS each country handling that separately.  Or does the EU have to do it for the whole continent? What is GB doing since they're out of the EU?  Japan?  Australia?

[Alan Klein]

Yes, the US was better prepared than others on some metrics, this has been posted on the past. Without the Fox spin, really I'm sure you can find better sources but for you guys it's all about the spin.

Problem is the administration took that relatively better preparedness and used it as toilet paper. As WHO said, no country is really prepared for pandemic, talk about a false sense of security.

The huge extent of the outbreak made whatever preparations countries did limited.  For example, the US Federal government had 20,000 ventilators in its national emergency storage facility, much less than is needed.  But no one figured on such a problem.  Let's face it, you can't prepare for everything that might happen.  And at some point, there's a limit to how much you can prepare for.  How much preparation did you do at home for such a thing?  My wife and I are having difficulty finding a lot of stuff that we need for day to day things we do. Simple things like detergent to wash clothes, alcohol.  PLus things are 2-4 times the cost on the web because everyone wants to buy from a limited amount available.   Why did you and I not store more stuff for such an emergency?  Well, governments are in the same predicament.  It costs money to store stuff.  No one thinks things will get that bad.  Certainly, I didn't.  It's like war without the shooting.

[Martin Kristiansen]

The huge extent of the outbreak made whatever preparations countries did limited.  For example, the US Federal government had 20,000 ventilators in its national emergency storage facility, much less than is needed.  But no one figured on such a problem.  Let's face it, you can't prepare for everything that might happen.  And at some point, there's a limit to how much you can prepare for.  How much preparation did you do at home for such a thing?  My wife and I are having difficulty finding a lot of stuff that we need for day to day things we do. Simple things like detergent to wash clothes, alcohol.  PLus things are 2-4 times the cost on the web because everyone wants to buy from a limited amount available.   Why did you and I not store more stuff for such an emergency?  Well, governments are in the same predicament.  It costs money to store stuff.  No one thinks things will get that bad.  Certainly, I didn't.  It's like war without the shooting.

I don’t always agree with you but I totally agree with assessment.

[Robert Roaldi]

According to this, the right wing is beginning to target Dr. Fauci, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/24/anthony-fauci-fringe-maga-target-147401.

I guess this could have been predicted.

[Alan Klein]

I don’t always agree with you but I totally agree with assessment.

I meant to mention also, that local governments weren't prepared either to the extent they should have been.  After all, the US has 50 sovereign states.  Each state has their own taxes. government and laws.  The pay for their own health to a large extent.  Why weren't NYS and NYC prepared?  NYC has 11 government owned and run hospitals.  Why didn't they have stock?   Both the Mayor and Governor blame Trump for not sending them ventilators.  What about their responsibility to be prepared?  Between the two entities, their annual budget is over $250 billion dollars.  It's easy to point fingers.  Meanwhile Trump is getting them the ventilators.

[Alan Klein]

According to this, the right wing is beginning to target Dr. Fauci, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/24/anthony-fauci-fringe-maga-target-147401.

I guess this could have been predicted.

The administration has to deal with medical and economic issues.  Both are paramount.  Yet, trying to figure out the balance of how to handle this without knowing the future is difficult.  Even for experts.  We've never faced anything like this before.   Having discussions about which way to go is important.  Ignoring one side is dangerous.  All options have to be discussed.  To do less isn't acting professionally or creditably.

[Alan Klein]

Congress passed $2 trillion rescue bill for economy last might.  So now we'll have even more money chasing fewer goods.  As prices go up, restaurants and other  businesses already under strain of no income will not recover as people stop buying their products and going out because the prices are too high and unemployment is in double digits.  Suppliers in Asia and Europe will be in the same position as their sales go down.  We could face a world-wide depression.  It's very bleak.  On the other hand, if the disease ends fairly quickly, we could recover.  But prices will still go up forcing many business to close permanently.  What a revolting situation this is.

What's happening in Europe with stimulus funding?  IS each country handling that separately.  Or does the EU have to do it for the whole continent? What is GB doing since they're out of the EU?  Japan?  Australia?

Update to the budget.  The $2 trillion just legislated just includes the aid package.  Another $4 trillion will be "spent" by the Fed - printing, bonds, borrowing.  That's 1/4 of the US GDP and more than the entire budget for one year over already figured $1 trillion.  That's US$7 trillion!!!  Buy gold.  CUrrency is going to be inflated, maybe near worthless.  You think film prices are high now?  And I had to decide to take up 4x5 photography.  Bad timing.  Maybe I can put a digital sensor on the back of my 4x5 camera?

[Alan Klein]

Here's the article on the $6 trillion.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-stimulus-package-to-exceed-6t-larry-kudlow-says/

[armand]

The huge extent of the outbreak made whatever preparations countries did limited.  For example, the US Federal government had 20,000 ventilators in its national emergency storage facility, much less than is needed.  But no one figured on such a problem.  Let's face it, you can't prepare for everything that might happen.  And at some point, there's a limit to how much you can prepare for.  How much preparation did you do at home for such a thing?  My wife and I are having difficulty finding a lot of stuff that we need for day to day things we do. Simple things like detergent to wash clothes, alcohol.  PLus things are 2-4 times the cost on the web because everyone wants to buy from a limited amount available.   Why did you and I not store more stuff for such an emergency?  Well, governments are in the same predicament.  It costs money to store stuff.  No one thinks things will get that bad.  Certainly, I didn't.  It's like war without the shooting.

Of course nobody is truly prepared for it, I didn't expect this to be a walk in the park. Anybody would have difficulties, there is that much preparedness that you can do.

My issues, and I said before, are mainly 2:
- US ran simulations and knew we are not ready yet nothing extra was done for it, and the people who knew about it or the previously dedicated pandemic response, were disbanded or in disarray. If you don't believe in a central response (which is wrong) then at least share that info with the states. Instead it was locked under key and just recently we found out about it.
- it was clear we will be hit for a very long time yet the administration, Trump in particular, was overly optimistic and in denial making the response delayed. This made a bad situation even worse. And now he has the guts to say he always knew this will be a pandemic although he kept saying it will be fine just until few days before, and amazingly his gullible supporters still believe him.

I don't believe in miracles, and while I might have nitpicks about how and who did what, overall I would have been ok if they here honest from the beginning and try to own it. It couldn't have been stopped but it could have been controlled better. Now in are in chase mode.
Again it's a moot point now, history will determine how much this was screwed up. The only reason I still refer to it it's when I see you saying he's doing such in amazing job.

[Robert Roaldi]

Here's an interesting article about face mask manufacture, https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/05/811387424/face-masks-not-enough-are-made-in-america-to-deal-with-coronavirus.

This highlights the problems of supply chains with items that are (or become) strategically important. Although Econ 101 textbooks present marketplace competition as the ideal for which to strive, one problem with it is that businessmen hate competition. One effect is consolidation in some industries. At each step of the way, when larger corporations but up smaller ones and introduce economies of scale, no one is doing anything wrong. Quite the opposite, they are doing exactly what they are supposed to do, maximize shareholder value. This is a terrific thing that our culture devised. But then you end up with one factory in Puerto Rico that makes 95% (or something like that) of the world's IV bags and a Cat 5 hurricane hits. Because all modern hospitals operate in a just-in-time supply chain environment, then everyone has the same problem at the same time. And people are put in danger.

This system works fine until it doesn't.

Somewhere along the line, it should be the responsibility of someone to ensure that there are alternate sources of strategic items. Individual hospitals can't do it, it's a more global issue. It's probable that hospital procurers don't even know where stuff is made, I am sure they deal with middlemen.

So who steps in to mandate that some items need to be manufactured in-country even though it will cost more. That interferes with the free market and people would freak. But no one would want all the world's gun ammo to be manufactured in only one country, because what if you ever went to war with that country?

How do we deal with this kind of market failure?

[Alan Klein]

Here's an interesting article about face mask manufacture, https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/05/811387424/face-masks-not-enough-are-made-in-america-to-deal-with-coronavirus.

This highlights the problems of supply chains with items that are (or become) strategically important. Although Econ 101 textbooks present marketplace competition as the ideal for which to strive, one problem with it is that businessmen hate competition. One effect is consolidation in some industries. At each step of the way, when larger corporations but up smaller ones and introduce economies of scale, no one is doing anything wrong. Quite the opposite, they are doing exactly what they are supposed to do, maximize shareholder value. This is a terrific thing that our culture devised. But then you end up with one factory in Puerto Rico that makes 95% (or something like that) of the world's IV bags and a Cat 5 hurricane hits. Because all modern hospitals operate in a just-in-time supply chain environment, then everyone has the same problem at the same time. And people are put in danger.

This system works fine until it doesn't.

Somewhere along the line, it should be the responsibility of someone to ensure that there are alternate sources of strategic items. Individual hospitals can't do it, it's a more global issue. It's probable that hospital procurers don't even know where stuff is made, I am sure they deal with middlemen.

So who steps in to mandate that some items need to be manufactured in-country even though it will cost more. That interferes with the free market and people would freak. But no one would want all the world's gun ammo to be manufactured in only one country, because what if you ever went to war with that country?

How do we deal with this kind of market failure?

Well, the government isn't the answer.  Hasn't this emergency shown us that.  That's why I'm opposed to government sponsored medical care and most other things.  Frankly, they don't care.
 They get elected and go about their business ignoring these things.  Sure there are certain items like tanks and missiles that require government control of sorts. But they're the only buyer.  For the rest, private competition is the best source of getting goods and services.  Of course,there's no reasons not to add medicine to that list and have more storage and force companies to manufacture in the US let's say 25%.  We can consider it a security necessity like tanks.  This crisis only supports Trump's complaint all along about letting China take all our manufacturing.  He was right.

I was on the web.  There are dozens of places to buy masks (well, the surgical ones, not the N95, yet).  That's because enterprising people and companies will start outputting them.  Sure they're high in price now.  But prices will come down as competition increases. 

Regarding consolidation, that's not a problem  First, there are laws against too much.  If big companies consolidate too far, they aren't allowed.  I forget which federal department handles that, but it's exercised when needed, but it's rare that it's needed. 

The problem in Puerto Rico was caused by government not private industry.  Government got rid of taxes there for companies who would move there.  They were trying to help PR economically getting them more business and jobs.  So the drug companies moved there and consolidated operations.  The government is always the cause of problems.  They printed a lot of money in 2001 because of the recession then.  That causes the real estate boom and bubble and subsequent collapse in 2008.  They're doing it again with the new $6 trillion spending that's going to happen now.  We'll pay for that in a few years, maybe sooner.  And it will be worse than 2008 or what's going on now.The more government does, the more they screw things up.  They always want to kick the can down the road.  Pay now or pay more later.  we always want to put off pain.  But it's like pulling off a band aide or jumping into cold water.  Just do it and get it done. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

...

My issues, and I said before, are mainly 2:
- US ran simulations and knew we are not ready yet nothing extra was done for it, and the people who knew about it or the previously dedicated pandemic response, were disbanded or in disarray. If you don't believe in a central response (which is wrong) then at least share that info with the states. Instead it was locked under key and just recently we found out about it.
- it was clear we will be hit for a very long time yet the administration, Trump in particular, was overly optimistic and in denial making the response delayed. This made a bad situation even worse. And now he has the guts to say he always knew this will be a pandemic although he kept saying it will be fine just until few days before, and amazingly his gullible supporters still believe him.

I don't believe in miracles, and while I might have nitpicks about how and who did what, overall I would have been ok if they here honest from the beginning and try to own it. It couldn't have been stopped but it could have been controlled better. Now in are in chase mode.
Again it's a moot point now, history will determine how much this was screwed up. The only reason I still refer to it it's when I see you saying he's doing such in amazing job.

More of your Monday-Morning-Quarterbacking and hindsight bias. Plus, "disbanded or in disarray" already debunked by fact checkers, as per the link I posted.

[armand]

More of your Monday-Morning-Quarterbacking and hindsight bias. Plus, "disbanded or in disarray" already debunked by fact checkers, as per the link I posted.

I disagree and debunked it was not. Of course we have hindsight but people had some of the info in their face and did nothing with it.

Anyway I don't think I can convince you otherwise so all this is not going to change anything. The only reason I'm still doing it at some extent is that after a week of staying home I can only find so many things to do.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

I disagree and debunked it was not. Of course we have hindsight but people had some of the info in their face and did nothing with it.

Anyway I don't think I can convince you otherwise so all this is not going to change anything. The only reason I'm still doing it at some extent is that after a week of staying home I can only find so many things to do.

And your insights are appreciated. 

More than some others'  , but that would be setting the bar very low.

[armand]

And your insights are appreciated. 

More than some others'  , but that would be setting the bar very low.

Thank you Bart!


A chilling article, this one hits home for me and many others in a similar position: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/were-failing-doctors/608662/?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share

[Alan Klein]

Thank you Bart!


A chilling article, this one hits home for me and many others in a similar position: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/were-failing-doctors/608662/?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share

Of course they should be protected.  The government has shipped and will be shipping a lot more stuff first to the affected areas, then elsewheres.  This issue is being addressed.  What to do about the virus and the economy are the big issues.  The whole thing is a crap shoot.