COVID-19 updates

[Chris Kern]

The actual infections may be ten times that dropping the mortality to 0.13%  As soon as possibly feasible, large scale testing of the US populace needs to take place; only then will we know the true statistics.

Also, in order to make accurate estimates of both the extent of infection and the death rate, won't it also be necessary to check a sample of the population for antibodies to the COVID-19 virus in order to determine how many people already have been infected and have recovered?  My impression is that to date the only tests that are being performed―at least in the United States―are to determine which individuals are currently infected.

[Craig Lamson]

Wow, some of you guys are really taking hysteria and conspiracy theories to the next level. 

Quick question, why would you be upset by this, are you not for bigger government?  Or is it upsetting that through the past 3 years of Trump, the constant talk about how he is a tyrant, yet not taking any tyrannical power, driving the media so mad they need to run stories like this? 

Anyway, spoke to an interior designer I know today.  She has appointments for residential projects that she is still going to, even though the city put in place a shelter in place order.  She wants the projects and the money, end of story. 

So, I'll say it again, people are not going to listen to these stay inside orders and will conduct business.  After looking at more and more info, I still feel we are going totally overboard on this.  Put in place procedures to protect the elderly and those at risk, and allow everyone else to get back to work and not loose their jobs or businesses. 

I will be very curious to see what the suicide and overdose rate is during this period, and if those who insisted we take these measures will apologize if those go up by a considerable amount.

Everyone is different and quite frankly that designer should be ashamed of herself for taking the chance of perhaps infecting people, all for a buck.

Just an hour ago I took a call from a very good client.  He wants to sell his 2018 Gulfstream G280. It’s a very nice aircraft and he wanted me to shoot images of the quality that I produced a few years ago when he sold his a Lear 60.  He wants to list this plane ASAP.

The problem, Indiana shelter in place goes in effect tomorrow at midnight and the plane is not back until Weds.  it’s a very pricy assignment and they offered a bonus.

I declined, not because I wanted too, and despite of the great billing and quick pay, but rather because it was the right thing to do.  They are an essential industry and I could have gotten a letter to allow me to travel. 

But it’s still not right.

[Jonathan Cross]

After the UK behaviour last weekend with people flouting social distancing, it was inevitable that closing down all but essentials tomorrow to prevent social interaction and movement would happen.  'Stay at Home' is the mantra.  The thrust in the UK is to stop people mixing and transmitting the virus.  It is important that medics do not catch it, and that the elderly do not either, so that the health system is not swamped and people with other health problems are not put at risk as well.  See the Belfast plea, going viral

https://www.facebook.com/BelfastTrust/videos/208441737094967/

That said there is a very expensive package in place to keep the economy going so that companies of all sizes do not go under, unemployment rise, and even more money paid out in benefits through the compulsory close down, with sanctions to enforce.  This is helped by the cost of borrowing being so cheap.

Hey ho, if it goes on for long, we will all have hair down to our waist - hairdressing is not essential.  Amazon will be loving it, as long as they can get stock to deliver.  The fact that the virus can stay on hard surfaces means that cash is being used less and less, contactless card transactions are rocketing.  Its all change, no pun intended.

Best wishes,

Jonathan

[Alan Klein]

John, remember that is based on tested individuals.  The actual infections may be ten times that dropping the mortality to 0.13%  As soon as possibly feasible, large scale testing of the US populace needs to take place; only then will we know the true statistics.

The woman virologist at the President's news conference tonight reported that approximately 20% of the people tested in New York are positive compared to 8% in other parts of the US. She claims that apparently the virus had been going around a couple of weeks sooner and that closer socialism added to the higher infection rate in NY.  She also mentioned that based on European figures, 99% of the dead are over 50.  Trump used these figures to make the point I made here a few days ago that the cure may be worse than the disease (He called it "worse than the problem").  I see him opening things up economically at the end of the 15 day period declared a week ago.  That may be bad for old guys like me with some medical problems.  But I think the country has to pick between the virus and starving to death by not being able to get resources to eat.  Frankly, the rest of the world is going to have to make that same decision.

[JoeKitchen]

Everyone is different and quite frankly that designer should be ashamed of herself for taking the chance of perhaps infecting people, all for a buck.

Just an hour ago I took a call from a very good client.  He wants to sell his 2018 Gulfstream G280. It’s a very nice aircraft and he wanted me to shoot images of the quality that I produced a few years ago when he sold his a Lear 60.  He wants to list this plane ASAP.

The problem, Indiana shelter in place goes in effect tomorrow at midnight and the plane is not back until Weds.  it’s a very pricy assignment and they offered a bonus.

I declined, not because I wanted too, and despite of the great billing and quick pay, but rather because it was the right thing to do.  They are an essential industry and I could have gotten a letter to allow me to travel. 

But it’s still not right.

Each has their own risks to way, and I do not judge anyone who happens to find it riskier to give up work then catch this thing.  You're in a different position then her and what works for you is not the same as what works for her. 

I am not for everyone going out, partying in a crowded bar and hugging random people, but engaging in meetings to still maintain your business is different.  After all we have to come out of this with viable lives as well.  Having everyone to stay inside for a few months is not only impractical, but not something we can expect people to do. 

A photographer in NYC jumped to his death this week and one can only guess loosing lots of work was, partly, a reason for it.  Stopping the economy dead also costs lives. 

[LesPalenik]

The woman virologist at the President's news conference tonight reported that approximately 20% of the people tested in New York are positive compared to 8% in other parts of the US. She claims that apparently the virus had been going around a couple of weeks sooner and that closer socialism added to the higher infection rate in NY.  She also mentioned that based on European figures, 99% of the dead are over 50.  Trump used these figures to make the point I made here a few days ago that the cure may be worse than the disease (He called it "worse than the problem").  I see him opening things up economically at the end of the 15 day period declared a week ago.  That may be bad for old guys like me with some medical problems.  But I think the country has to pick between the virus and starving to death by not being able to get resources to eat.  Frankly, the rest of the world is going to have to make that same decision.

Closer or farther, socialism is never a good thing.

[Alan Klein]

When you work, you're not only feeding your family, you;re helping others to feed theirs as well.  I was watching the news conference.  So you had the President, VP, AJ, and other people in close proximity reporting to the public.  The woman reported she had to be tested because see ran a fever Satur .  Turned out negative.  The president stepped away and laughed.  The point is they're taking risks because that;s their job.

Well, we all have a job to do.  If you're a doctor and staying home, you're not in your office helping sick people.  My nephew, a anesthesiologist was sent home from the hospital when they cancelled elective surgery which is practically everything not like a car accident. A teacher isn't teaching the young.  Truck drivers are not delivering food, medicine, and other things that keep the public alive and healthy.  I ran a business that services fire alarm systems in high rise office building in MAnhattan that protected people and property.  I know people who are not getting their cancer treatments now because of this.  If you're a photographer not working and helping to sell product of others, than you're taking food off the table of the workers of that company.  In other words, work not only helps us but the rest of society as well.  Let's not shoot ourselves in the foot.

[Alan Klein]

Closer or farther, socialism is never a good thing.

I meant socialization not socialism. 

[LesPalenik]

I meant socialization not socialism. 

That makes more sense. Although, these days too much of socialization could be even more dangerous than the socialism.

[BernardLanguillier]

Indeed... I am appalled by the reaction of some people here. China, together witht some other Asian countries like south Korea and Japan, have shown how to tackle this problem: a lot of testing and effective quarantine. They are at the forefront of the scientific testing. Those countries have a lot of experience from previous epidemics like the SARS-COV1 in 2002 and 2003.

Euh... Korea I agree 100%. China so so... Japan has done very very little. In fact I would argue that Japan has been by far the worst among developed countries.

Besides closing the schools and discouraging large gatherings, they have taken zero coercive measures.

On the contrary, they have taken a clear policy of doing as few tests as possible, only 1,300 per day vs their capacity of 6,000.

The official contamination numbers are probably not lies, but considering how little they test, we can only assume that the real numbers are tens of times higher. The horrible consequence is that many Japanese people have stopped to wear masks.

I hate to be pessimistic, but I am afraid Japan could be the next major WW victim. And that will be 100% the result of the decisions of Abe. Needless to say, the motivation was to try to save the Olympic games.

Cheers,
Bernard

[Alan Klein]

That makes more sense. Although, these days too much of socialization could be even more dangerous than the socialism.

I know what you mean.  When I got divorced, my first wife took more from me than Sanders wants too. 

[LesPalenik]

A photographer in NYC jumped to his death this week and one can only guess loosing lots of work was, partly, a reason for it.  Stopping the economy dead also costs lives.

He was a street photographer and left behind a note "How do you enjoy life?" So maybe it was not so much lack of money as poor prospects for street shooting.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11235622/haunting-suicide-note-left-by-photographer-64-who-jumped-to-his-death-from-the-16th-floor-of-luxury-apartments/

[Alan Klein]

Euh... Korea I agree 100%. China so so... Japan has done very very little. In fact I would argue that Japan has been by far the worst among developed countries.

Besides closing the schools and discouraging large gatherings, they have taken zero coercive measures.

On the contrary, they have taken a clear policy of doing as few tests as possible, only 1,300 per day vs their capacity of 6,000.

The official contamination numbers are probably not lies, but considering how little they test, we can only assume that the real numbers are tens of times higher. The horrible consequence is that many Japanese people have stopped to wear masks.

I hate to be pessimistic, but I am afraid Japan could be the next major WW victim. And that will be 100% the result of the decisions of Abe. Needless to say, the motivation was to try to save the Olympic games.

Cheers,
Bernard

If true about Japan, their mortality numbers must be actually very high do to the advanced age of their population.

[Alan Klein]

He was a street photographer and left behind a note "How do you enjoy life?" So maybe it was not so much lack of money as poor prospects for street shooting.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11235622/haunting-suicide-note-left-by-photographer-64-who-jumped-to-his-death-from-the-16th-floor-of-luxury-apartments/

The TV showed a young street drummer in Time Square who plays on plastic cans.  He gets tips from the passing public.  Because of the new regulations, he only makes $20 a day.  In normal times he makes $200 a day.  Cash.   No taxes.  Fresh air.

[Jonathan Cross]

The last few posts show how different America is from some other countries.  Europe is looking at Italy and not liking what it sees in the north of that country.  If the virus goes wide scale, then even with a death rate of 2% to 5% there will be a lot of deaths.  If a significant number of medics are put out of action, then that would affect many more.  It is interesting to note that the youngest to die in the UK was 18 years old.

Plans to convert large premises to emergency hospitals indicate that scenario planning is looking at the possibility of many succumbing.  How America would deal with the effect on the economy of that may be different from how other countries would given differences in the benefit systems. The effect of the virus on the economy cannot be dodged.  It will be interesting to see how it pans out in different countries.

Jonathan

[elliot_n]

He was a street photographer and left behind a note "How do you enjoy life?" So maybe it was not so much lack of money as poor prospects for street shooting.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11235622/haunting-suicide-note-left-by-photographer-64-who-jumped-to-his-death-from-the-16th-floor-of-luxury-apartments/

How sad. He was a good photographer. This artist's talk was posted on Lula a few months back (by Rob C?):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmZ5WIqxAZ4&t=

[Craig Lamson]

Each has their own risks to way, and I do not judge anyone who happens to find it riskier to give up work then catch this thing.  You're in a different position then her and what works for you is not the same as what works for her. 

I am not for everyone going out, partying in a crowded bar and hugging random people, but engaging in meetings to still maintain your business is different.  After all we have to come out of this with viable lives as well.  Having everyone to stay inside for a few months is not only impractical, but not something we can expect people to do. 

A photographer in NYC jumped to his death this week and one can only guess loosing lots of work was, partly, a reason for it.  Stopping the economy dead also costs lives.

Right now this has zero to do with each person and their own level of risk.   In this case is not just about her and her”level of risk”. It the level level risk SHE imposed upon others without their convent. It selfish, arrogant and down right greedy at the expense of others.

The rules are not that hard to obey at this point.  It’s not that much to ask this of people in an honorable society.  There is no way to excuse it, no way to rationalize it, no way do anything but to object to it.

[LesPalenik]

Right now this has zero to do with each person and their own level of risk.   In this case is not just about her and her”level of risk”. It the level level risk SHE imposed upon others without their convent. It selfish, arrogant and down right greedy at the expense of others.

The rules are not that hard to obey at this point.  It’s not that much to ask this of people in an honorable society.  There is no way to excuse it, no way to rationalize it, no way do anything but to object to it.

Can't find a connection between the quoted part and reply. Can you clarify?

[hogloff]

A photographer in NYC jumped to his death this week and one can only guess loosing lots of work was, partly, a reason for it.  Stopping the economy dead also costs lives.

Yes...and who knows what caused this person to take their life...but the 43 people in NY today that took their last julp of air after fighting so hard for that breath had no choice of whether to see tomorrow's sunrise.

How do you know this person would not have taken his life irregardless of the virus and measures. Surely he had mental problems far more than some anxiety due to lock downs.

[Craig Lamson]

Can't find a connection between the quoted part and reply. Can you clarify?

You need to go back a few posts to Joes story about an interior designer.  Its a continued comment from that conversation.