PDN PhotoPlus 2013

[ErikKaffehr]

Hi,

I would guess that Sony's focus is making a capable system with reduced weight and volume. It's not about price, you cannot compete on price and earn a lot of money. Sony things that EVF is the future and builds a system to utilize it.

The Alpha will not work well symmetric wide angle designs, but it will work well with any lens ever made for an SLR. I guess that the best camera for Leica lenses is the Leica M (240) or if you are happy with CCD the Leica ME. I don't see the problem. If you need an MF rangefinder system, go Leica M. If you need a compact system go 4/3. If you need a compact full frame system, consider the A7. Where is the problem?

I don't think video capability is a bad thing. If you want a crippled system, it is OK, but I would assume that creative or open minded photographers embrace the new options we get with new technologies, especially when they come at zero price.

Best regards
Erik

I don't see much threat to Canikon FF DSLR's (A7 isn't any cheaper than rival offerings)
Some Canon users might pick one up if they are desperate for 36mp

Rangefinder lens users...well the samples I've seen are quite abysmal so I think they're out of luck here unless they shoot short tele lenses
Native E mount, the lenses are few, big and expensive as well as not particularly fast the range will grow but I suspect sales will not be great.

The real market is from folks who want FF, buy the body and adaptor and go digging around for 35mm manual focus lenses that cost next to nothing on ebay, and there are plenty around. That's by far the most obvious target, which sadly means Sony are going to have a hard time selling their own lenses. Maybe landscape shooter, or travel photographer.

A7 has no hope at all regarding the pro market, or sports/action/PJ/ type shooters. So I don't see it killing Canikon any time soon. People over estimate the importance of mirror less, it's more about cost savings for makers than "what the market wants" As for small many don't want tiny..again you can't paint people into a corner.

As for the video comments, 4k has very little interest from what I can see bar video shooters. And I expect a slow uptake on 4k sets too. Let's not forget many if not most stills shooters have a minimal interest in video, most couldn't care less about what happens with 4k.
The only company that probably had a major panic is Olympus, trying to sell a micro 4/3 body for the same price as a FF one is about as doomed as you can get!

[barryfitzgerald]

Erik, being creative or open minded has nothing to do with 4k video. I have no problems with video being offered, but it's not a high priority for most "photographers" because erm well we shoot still images and not moving images  Are you suggesting those of us who are not that interested in video are not creative or open minded?

Just because I drive a car, doesn't mean I'm that interested in 4x4 vehicles on off road conditions.
4k is just another attempt to wrangle more cash out of TV and capture device sales it's really not in demand at the moment. If we've learnt anything from 3D TV's it's that consumers don't always want what makers have on offer, that crashed and burned fairly quickly if I say so.

Reality is in recent times the consumer market has fallen rapidly in many areas. Is it any wonder that the camera industry is also in decline?
No it's not, the market was overinflated for some time and the bubble had to burst at some point.

http://www.eoshd.com/content/11409/consumer-dslrs-dead-5-years

The article above raises some valid points, but it's misinformed and no punches pulled missing the point entirely.

- The camera market is down across the board, DSLR's, CSC's, compacts..
- Smartphones might hit compact sales but they're chalk and cheese to DSLR buyers really not even remotely responsible for sales declines here

The points made about satisfaction with current gear/models is reasonable
It's far to early and ill advised to suggest the A7 is a nail in Canon's coffin

Sony have tried some new interesting things, but they also show a lack of understanding as well. The QX shows a lack of grasp about how people want to take photos with smart phones and entirely misses the point. The RX10 is interesting but priced at a point where it's guaranteed to fail.
Canon are not the fall guy here, for one obvious reason..they have a diverse broad business it's not just "cameras". Nikon are more vulnerable here as it makes up far more of the company overall. Both Panasonic and Sony have serious issues in the consumer electronics industry, both makers in severe decline for over a decade. Olympus has serious financial problems too. One model isn't going to boost Sony to defeat the mighty Canon. There are lots of poorly informed articles around at the moment proudly declaring mirror less as the winner.

As said ILC sales declined even more than DSLR sales so how that makes it the way forward is a complete mystery.
We will have less makers, less models, longer upgrade paths, and cheaper prices. That's great for all of us too much stuff out there and something has to give.

[Osprey]

Sony, an electronics company in decline that bought a camera company in decline.  Minolta couldn't crack Canon and Nikon in decades, and Sony's billions haven't made much headway... despite being a sensor manufacturer.  Their switching from system to system when they have yet to build out any of their systems adequately is also a concern.  The traditional Minolta based SLR/SLT Alpha series is likely already dead.

The digital camera market in mature markets will decline as the expansion of photography that digital engendered slows and stops.  The consumer market will likely be happy with cell phone cameras.  There will, however, be a serious enthusiast and pro market that will probably be bigger than that market was in the film era.  There are laws of physics that cell phones will not overcome, and enthusiasts will need dedicated cameras.  That market will be served by the camera manufacturers.  Is it enough for manufacturers of mirrorless cameras to exceed old guard Canikon only in size?  Don't they need to be better at some technical metric to be anything other than attractive as an additional system or for consumers whose main focus is size?  It's telling that Nikon is the manufacturer that debuted fast on sensor autofocus for mirrorless cameras.  Canikon likely don't feel its time to start to cannibalize their own sales at this point.

[hjulenissen]

I am with Erik here. System cameras used to be a niche for pros and enthusiasts. Normal people had cheap compacts.

Then came digital, and normal people purchased significantly more expensive (digital) compacts. Then came digital system cameras, and surprisingly many soccer mums, regular people into nature and wildlife, or single men with cats purchased a (relatively) expensive DSLR.

The reasons are obvious: digital gives you instant feedback, zero running costs, good integration with digital tools (photoshop, printers, tvs,…), and system cameras gives you flexibility, quality and some brag-factor. But what is next? My uncles and aunts all have ok digital compacts and/or Canikon crop DSLRS. And a dusty DV handicam sitting on the shelf. And a large part of the time they are using their iPhones because they are not photographers or enthusiasts, they are regular people who want to document things that matter to them (and brag about their kids/holliday/cats) with minimum effort.

The GoPro cameras shows that it is possible to innovate and to create a new category where _you_ get to decide the terms (instead of having to compete with mature video cameras, improving SNR by 2dB).

_I_ will perhaps be satisfied with more DR, more resolution, better AF performance etc. But I am in a minority, and things like that takes significant R&D. So what is it that camera manufacturers are going to offer the regular people, generating the revenue (Canon may sell 100 700D for each 70D, and probably a 100 70D for each 1D-X). Facebook integration? PictBridge technology? Android cameras that can run 2012 cellphone apps in a choppy manner? I am no market research guy, but I don't think that making a camera into a (poor) cellphone is the answer, and I certainly don't think that Canon can make (camera-centric) cellphones to compete with the established cellphone players.

It seems that one niche that have been neglected is "I want good quality images, but I want water-proof, dust-proof and fall-proof as well". This has caught on in cellphones, so why are we not seeing (more) rugged compact/system cameras with larger sensor, raw capabilities (Nikon 1-series being the one exception)? Not talking scuba gear here, but something you can take to the beach without worrying.

If I had to put my bets anywhere, it would be on the good-quality, retro-design, upmarket cameras (Fuji). It may be a niche, but I think there are a significant number of people who wants something that works well (for its purpose), is stylish while compact, but does not want to pay for a Leica. The Sony RX-1 touches into this area, but "fails" on looks.

-h

[ErikKaffehr]

Hi,

Yes, I actually think so. If you don't use the toolset, it is something you miss.

The reson I think 4K is important is that it will change the way we see images. Today, if you want to put an image on the wall in decent resolution you need to print it. In the near future we can hang a display on the wall. A 4K screen does not match the resolution of a good print, but has a much wider contrast range. We can also put motion on a 4K screen.

I sometimes shoot some wildlife. Stills are great but motion adds a dimension, called life.

BCooter here on LuLa says that essentially all commercial they shoot now involves both motion and stills. I am in no way commercial but still I think we are moving in a direction where we mix stills and motion.

Best regards
Erik

Erik, being creative or open minded has nothing to do with 4k video. I have no problems with video being offered, but it's not a high priority for most "photographers" because erm well we shoot still images and not moving images   Are you suggesting those of us who are not that interested in video are not creative or open minded?

[hjulenissen]

Yes, I actually think so. If you don't use the toolset, it is something you miss.
...
I sometimes shoot some wildlife. Stills are great but motion adds a dimension, called life.

Color also adds a dimension, yet some people choose to remove it.

I think that "artistic expression" can be great or not, depending on the person who did it. They may choose to use all of the tools in the box or only a few, they may base that choice on a thorough understanding of all tools, or a flawed understanding, in the end, it is the end-result that counts.

-h

[ErikKaffehr]

Hi,

Yes, I can agree on that. My point was intended to be a bit provocative, by the way.

Best regards
Erik

Color also adds a dimension, yet some people choose to remove it.

I think that "artistic expression" can be great or not, depending on the person who did it. They may choose to use all of the tools in the box or only a few, they may base that choice on a thorough understanding of all tools, or a flawed understanding, in the end, it is the end-result that counts.

-h

[Paulo Bizarro]

A7 has no hope at all regarding the pro market, or sports/action/PJ/ type shooters. So I don't see it killing Canikon any time soon. People over estimate the importance of mirror less, it's more about cost savings for makers than "what the market wants" As for small many don't want tiny..again you can't paint people into a corner.

Not any time soon, but say in 5 years? For sure today the new Sony's can not compete in fast action shooting, due to AF limitations, and lens line limitations. But just 1 year ago, something like the RX1 was deemed "impossible"; just 1 month ago, the A7R was also deemed "impossible", so give it a few more years. The trend is certain.

[hjulenissen]

Not any time soon, but say in 5 years? For sure today the new Sony's can not compete in fast action shooting, due to AF limitations, and lens line limitations. But just 1 year ago, something like the RX1 was deemed "impossible"; just 1 month ago, the A7R was also deemed "impossible", so give it a few more years. The trend is certain.

Judging from the bulk of posts on photo enthusiast forums, it seems to me that 24x36mm sensor and compact design in one camera is a combination that many people want. I think that their reasons can be multiple, some perhaps easier to understand than others.

I think that quite a few people are willing to live with less-than-perfect AF, limited lens choice and other quirks as long as the price (with a standard zoom) is $1500-$2000 and the best-case quality is good.

-h

[barryfitzgerald]

Do you really see APS-C Canikon shooter with some FF lenses buying an A7 over their own mount FF body?
I don't myself.

It's interesting to have more models out there, and I really do hope FF prices tumble (they need to) Just not sure this is going to have the impact some suggest. Talking about it on forums and buying one are not the same thing.
As for mirror less, until I see Canikon go EVF on their DSLR range..only then will the trend be set. Though I very much doubt they will on higher end APS-C or FF bodies.

[telyt]

Do you really see APS-C Canikon shooter with some FF lenses buying an A7 over their own mount FF body?
I don't myself.

I don't know where you're looking but I see it here:

http://www.fredmiranda.com/forum/topic/1248480

It's a very hot topic on Canon equipment forums.  The A7r is 50% of the weight of a 5DIII with higher resolution, can use EF and many other lenses.  Quoting one typical comment in the above link:

"Hell yes. Great sensor, high mpix and a small package that takes all my existing lens. What's not to like about that?"

[ErikKaffehr]

Hi,

I like the A7r, no question about it. I am just not sure that it is a solution to all problems!

Best regards
Erik

I don't know where you're looking but I see it here:

http://www.fredmiranda.com/forum/topic/1248480

It's a very hot topic on Canon equipment forums.  The A7r is 50% of the weight of a 5DIII with higher resolution, can use EF and many other lenses.  Quoting one typical comment in the above link:

"Hell yes. Great sensor, high mpix and a small package that takes all my existing lens. What's not to like about that?"

[ndevlin]

I was super-excited about the A7r, but in my hand it was just another soulless computer with a lens on it. If it performs brilliantly with my Leica glass I might buy one, but otherwise the forthcoming Nikon DF is much more exciting, to me at least.

- N.

[Isaac]

Before they were a soulless computer with a lens they were a soulless machine, especially suited to modernist portrayal of the machine age. But once we shake-on that retro pixie-dust... :-)

[OldRoy]

This is an interesting piece.
http://visualsciencelab.blogspot.co.uk/
Roy

[dreed]

This is an interesting piece.
http://visualsciencelab.blogspot.co.uk/
Roy

Love it! And that article is why I think Nikon's upcoming "photography only" target is wrong - it is aiming at a shrinking portion of the market (the "grey beards" of photography.)

The camera market is in the doldrums now because it is conflicted. Go with the aging money? Or go with the maturing new markets? Go with a shrinking but loyal market or blaze a new trail based on new cultural parameters? The spoils will go to the companies that get it right.
...
Is my advice any good? Naw. I'm as trapped into my generation as anyone else. But I do know that the first step to freedom is to throw off the resistance to change. You'll never change the momentum of the overall market but you can always change your own focus. And then you may open new doors of perception that allow you to do your own work....but in a new way. Like a bridge.

[barryfitzgerald]

Grey beards?
Actually I know a few folks who are quite young (20's) who seem fairly interested in these types of cameras (ie retro Nikon/Fuji models)
People are not on the streets marching and chanting death to the DSLR

It's nice to have choices and different tools for different needs/people
As for the Canon forums, it re-enforces my point. Add a Sony A7, use their existing lenses with an adaptor. Quite a limited potential for Sony to sell their E mount FF lenses.
A7 will do ok, but it's not likely to dominate the FF Market

The real meat and gravy is the $600-$1000 range buyers, FF is nowhere near that. The first maker to offer a genuinely affordable FF body will clean up. There are a lot of APS-C users just dying to get a FF if the price is right. For most the A7 doesn't really change anything.

Like I said watch Canikon and see who brings out a really affordable FF, that will be a turning point in the industry

[hjulenissen]

The real meat and gravy is the $600-$1000 range buyers, FF is nowhere near that. The first maker to offer a genuinely affordable FF body will clean up. There are a lot of APS-C users just dying to get a FF if the price is right. For most the A7 doesn't really change anything.

The (original) Canon 5D, the Nikon D600, the Canon 6D, the Sony RX1 and now the Sony A7(-r) seems to have been important milestones towards the craved $1000 FF digital camera. The fact that people weigh these (quite dissimilar) cameras up against each other for (almost) no other apparent reason than their sensor size seems to suggest that quite a few people are really interested in FF sensors at bargain prices.

Of course, soccer-mums with crop DSLRs (or MILFs) that don't know or care about sensor size outnumber these by 10:1 or 100:1, they still seem to be a significant number of people, willing to shell out considerable money.

-h

[telyt]

... the forthcoming Nikon DF is much more exciting, to me at least.

I wonder if you'll feel the same once you lay your hands on it.

As for the Canon forums, it re-enforces my point. Add a Sony A7, use their existing lenses with an adaptor. Quite a limited potential for Sony to sell their E mount FF lenses.

I suppose this is a glass-half-full / glass-half-empty question.  I don't see that it makes your point at all.

[dreed]

Grey beards?
Actually I know a few folks who are quite young (20's) who seem fairly interested in these types of cameras (ie retro Nikon/Fuji models)
People are not on the streets marching and chanting death to the DSLR

They don't have to march, they just have to not pull out their credit card.

Like I said watch Canikon and see who brings out a really affordable FF, that will be a turning point in the industry

No, it won't. Why not? Because it won't make a lick of difference to those that are happy snapping away with their phones and uploading to facebook a second later. Even if you added a 3G or 4G interface to a FF camera it won't make a difference because the size of the thing is going to make it that much more inconvenient for people to have with them. People bought compact cameras in droves because they fitted in the purse, handbag, jacket pocket, etc. This applies to both film and digital cameras.

What impact will an affordable FF camera have? It'll tempt a lot of "fanbois" of other brands to switch. It'll tempt a lot of APS-C owners to upgrade but it will not make a dent in phone-camera sales or win back market share. If the camera+sensor is good enough, it may tempt a lot of FF owners to "buy another."