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Author Topic: Ignorance  (Read 86999 times)

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #140 on: September 15, 2010, 03:51:42 pm »

...Nah ... not tough luck ... hop a plane, stay out of trouble and within a few years someone will offer blanket immigration amnesty and you can be American, too....

Thanks for the invite, gladly accepted. :) As a matter of fact, I am already in (legally, without amnesty) and eagerly and proudly awaiting citizenship.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #141 on: September 15, 2010, 04:28:29 pm »

... counting trucks from overhead imagery...

... would certainly not qualify you to assess the geopolitical impact of the war... simply beyond your pay grade, as they say. Ever heard of "not being able to see the forest from the trees"? And for the record, I do not mean any disrespect for you or the "truckers". Nor I mean to say there is no sense in counting trucks.

Quote
... If oil were really so central to all this, then why didn't we just take it? Obviously, we didn't. The US only has, I think, two driling contracts with the Iraqis right now. The rest were all let to companies from other countries...

If you read my previous post, on why it is wise not to go into a 100% annihilation of the enemy, you would understand that not taking oil outright is simply a smart strategy of avoiding antagonizing other players in the game (Europe, Russia, China) and forcing them to collude and form alliances against you. Controlling the access to oil is quite enough.

BernardLanguillier

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #142 on: September 15, 2010, 04:34:45 pm »

You are incorrect on so many levels. After the invasion, numerous chemical weapons were discharged. In most cases, they were artillery shells that were used in the assembling of IEDs. The people who did that probably didn't even know what they had. It's unlikey that those devices all came form a single large stockpile of weapons ready for use before the invasion, but there were nevertheless dangerous WMDs in Iraq, and there probably still are.  For some reason, that never seems to be acknowledged by the "there were no WMDs" crowd. So I am not "proved wrong." Feel free to continue your astonishment if you prefer.

How could we have gotten it wrong? We had an oponent who had already used chemical and biological weapons on civilians, and who had the means and the determination to keep the world believing he could still do that at any time. It's that simple.

After Gulf War I, Hussein was required to turn over all documents related to his manufacture of WMDs. Included in that, among other nasty surprises, was detailed documentation of the manufacture of many tons of chemical weapons. Enough to kill everyone in a number of large cities. Hussein never subsequently provided any documentation of the destruction of any of that. Zero.

When the inspectors would arrive at one of his suspected sites, there sually a flury of large moving vehicles and so forth, which indicated to all those watching that he had something to hide. Why did Hussein do that? He said in the weeks before he was executed that he wanted Iran, and to a lesser extent the US, to believe he still had WMDs. He thought, stupidly, that would be the best way for him to ensure that he would not be deposed by outside forces.

Without his cooperation with the inspectors, we would never have been able to prove that he didn't maintain the damn things any longer. Go back to the papers and look at what was going on with the inspecton regime in the summer of 2001. You'll see that Hussein refused to grant the access that might have shown he wasn't maintaining large stockpiles. Why is it so difficut for you to understand that the natural conclusion prior to the invasion was that Hussein had WMDs?

Intelligence work is about making one's best judgement based on the facts one has to work with. The facts suggested Hussein had not destroyed his WMDs. We still don't have any evidence that he did. If you wish to say that all the intelligence services in the western world were therefore "incompetent," well, that's your prerogative. For all anyone knows, those Iraqi WMDs were in the huge train of trucks we saw headed into Syria right before the invasion. We just don't know.


Your version of the facts appears to be highly  one-sided and is mostly built on the same old argument that WMD were there because they had to be there. Regarding the proposition that all the countries agreed with the claims of the US, this is simply totally false.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_and_the_Iraq_War

The scale of the gap between the claims of Colin Powell and the reality on the field is such that it is beyond any possible doubt a lie. Whether General Powell knew he was lying or not is not the point. He had been cornered into a position where he had no choice but to follow the intelligence presented to him that had been manipulated to convey the message defined by the Bush administration. Military does follow civilian order.

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: September 15, 2010, 05:09:49 pm by BernardLanguillier »
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Misirlou

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #143 on: September 15, 2010, 05:11:08 pm »

Yes, I heard that widespread claim that Islam is violent, and Christianity peaceful, turn-the-other-cheek religion. Now, I am definitely not a fan of Islam, and, truth to be told, I am not a fan of any organized religion, but let me offer some food for thought (for some reason I find that metaphor more appetizing than "flies..." :)).

That turn-the-other-cheek religion (and I am, by family tradition, if not practice, a part of it) is, throughout history, responsible for an incredible amount of deaths. From Inquisition, witch hunt, forced conversion (especially in Latin America), Crusaders, Conquistadors, Templars, etc., millions are killed in the name of the "peaceful" religion.

As for Islam, I am sure it had its fair share of forced conversion, but take a look at their method of spreading their influence: they mostly left conquered countries retain their language, culture and religion. How I know? My home country (Serbia) was 500 years under Turks, yet we managed to retain our identity. Similar thing in Spain.

Just a thought.

Slobodan,

I think the distinction is that some of us can still remember what it smelled like at the Pentagon on 9/11, the crusades not so much. I can also remember the money I gave to assorted charities over the years, and particiapating in several wars fought to protect muslims from others. In fact, I had a hand in writing the Bosnia Peace Treaty, and even had the misfortune of meeting one Slobodan Milosevic.

It gets back to my earlier point. We can always tell others how we think, how we feel etc. But when we start telling others how they feel or think, then we risk saying things that the listener knows to be false, and that undermines our credibility rather seriously.
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Misirlou

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #144 on: September 15, 2010, 05:21:41 pm »

... would certainly not qualify you to assess the geopolitical impact of the war... simply beyond your pay grade, as they say. Ever heard of "not being able to see the forest from the trees"? And for the record, I do not mean any disrespect for you or the "truckers". Nor I mean to say there is no sense in counting trucks.

If you read my previous post, on why it is wise not to go into a 100% annihilation of the enemy, you would understand that not taking oil outright is simply a smart strategy of avoiding antagonizing other players in the game (Europe, Russia, China) and forcing them to collude and form alliances against you. Controlling the access to oil is quite enough.



You're making an unwaranted assumption again. I didn't say I was counting trucks in Iraq. In fact, I had nothing to do with mideast intel, as I stated before. I was making a distinction between technical inteligence work and decision making at the highest levels. I've done a bit of both in my time. My point was that the intel said there were WMDs, therfeore the politicians had every reason to believe there were. The fact that there were not WMDs found does not indicate that the politicians lied.

You can't possibly be arguing that the US would spend something like $800 billion on a war to secure a couple of lousy oil contracts? Hell, it would be cheaper for us to simply abandon all mideast oil supplies. We already get most of our oil from Canada and Mexico as it is. I just think you are arguing from a semi-Marxist materialist point of view, but I don't believe that everyone acts on material determinism. That's all.
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Rob C

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #145 on: September 15, 2010, 05:26:11 pm »

I think that an important factor in all of this, in coming to some decision on what is or is not truth, is that we have to buy the person doing the telling. Could I buy Blair? Actually, I would never have voted for him, but he did convince me of the earnestness, the rightness of his position prior to going into battle. I remember thinking how odd it was that I supported a politician of the wrong colour.

But, in the end, I came to believe that he was anything but what he seemed. I came to believe that he was even more devious than poor old Bush, who I think was probably led by the nose all the while thinking he had the leash on the poodle. Take a look at the talk-circuit business and the money to be made there; who needs to stay in politics if a big enough noise can be made to finance your life out of it? Let's not even think about that English weapons guy who 'topped' himself in a field... though the doubts about that have resurfaced of late.

The cold war had nothing on this season's offerings!

Rob C

Misirlou

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #146 on: September 15, 2010, 05:41:08 pm »

Your version of the facts appears to be highly  one-sided and is mostly built on the same old argument that WMD were there because they had to be there. Regarding the proposition that all the countries agreed with the claims of the US, this is simply totally false.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_and_the_Iraq_War

The scale of the gap between the claims of Colin Powell and the reality on the field is such that it is beyond any possible doubt a lie. Whether General Powell knew he was lying or not is not the point. He had been cornered into a position where he had no choice but to follow the intelligence presented to him that had been manipulated to convey the message defined by the Bush administration. Military does follow civilian order.

Cheers,
Bernard


Of course I'm arguing from one side, because I was involved. I'm not going to take up Sadam Hussein's point of view, or entertain discussions where anyone else tries to tell me what I said, thought, or did. I don't mind hearing what others might think, but I will again state that, from my point of view, having been there, the assertion that you were lied to is not correct.

Essentially, according to that article, some countres felt the evidence was not strong enough to justify a war. It does not say that other countries felt that there was no evidence of WMDs, or more precisely evidence that there were no WMDs. You need something of that nature if you're going to make the claim that the US administration lied.

If the evidence had been completely solid one way or the other, things would have been different, and we wouldn't be having this conversation. But it wasn't, so we can.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #147 on: September 15, 2010, 05:47:46 pm »

...or more precisely evidence that there were no WMDs. You need something of that nature if you're going to make the claim that the US administration lied...

Evidence there were no WMDs? You should know it is a logical impossibility, i.e., it is impossible to prove non-existence of something.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #148 on: September 15, 2010, 05:50:47 pm »

... I just think you are arguing from a semi-Marxist materialist point of view...

Oh, you got me... I am sure PNAC was full of semi-Marxists too.

JohnKoerner

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #149 on: September 15, 2010, 05:54:57 pm »

I like that you relativized your own statement with words like "should" and "theoretically". Economist would typically add to such assumptions the "ceteris paribus" phrase, i.e., "all other things being equal".

I am pleased to learn you liked something I said.




So, in your example, if there are only two countries in the world, and they are at war, the superior country would win if they use "every means at [their] disposal to do so". In game theory, that model would be described as a two-player, single-stage game.

Okay, but war is not a game. A game is based on fair play, with the idea of fun.

War is based on irreconciable differences and a desire to use lethal force to impose one's position upon the other.




In reality, however, "other things" are rarely being equal, so  games are much more likely to be multiple-player, multiple-stage ones. So, while in your single stage of the game in your model you might win, the reality is that you would most likely face further resistance, maybe even years down the road, from children that grew up to hate your guts, and the game would turn into a multiple-stage one (as the history of human conflict is so readily showing us through "hundred year wars", Northern Ireland, Middle East, etc.).

Again, war is not a game. It should only be waged if one is 100% sure of the ethical and survival need of the act.

The Germans and Japanese do not hate us, precisely because we were right to wage war on them. Perhaps we are hated by others because in these other instances we were not in the right to wage war to begin with ...




Your only solution to prevent it, to bring your model to its logical conclusion, is to be 100% resolved to completely, utterly, obliterate and annihilate the entire population of the enemy... and not only its army and male population, but specifically fertile women and every and any child. Human history is littered with such attempts, known as "scorched earth", "take no prisoners", "final solution",  etc.

That is your twisted misunderstanding of what I said. In truth, I never said any such thing.




And here is when the game becomes rally interesting (pardon the rhetorical coldness): it stops being a two-payer game at that point. Other players, seeing the destruction of one side, would go into alliances to protect themselves from the same fate or to further their interest. The West went into the "unholy" alliance with communists, for instance.

Again, war is not a game.

Further, you again misunderstand the gist what I said. One should only go into war if it is the BEST long-term option, not to wantonly kill people just because you can.

You are simply building a straw man to knock down.




Fortunately (for the world), most leaders are aware of the complexities of the 100% wars, and are justifiably right to avoid them (and I guess their bathrooms are kept cleaner, so they do not build their view of the world on urinal "philosophy"  ;) (cheap shot, I admit... just could not resist  :))

You really shouldn't speak of "awareness" of the complexities, since you don't even understand the point I was making. Went right over your head.

Further, the bathroom saying that I used ("If your hose is too short, and your pump is too weak, stand a little closer dude or you'll piss on your feet.") was available for reading by me, because I have the luxury of being able to "stand back" and read it while taking care of business ... so, if you have never read this saying before yourself, it is only because you are of the unfortunate "minority" whose modest dimensions force you to stand-up close to the urinal, limiting your peripheral vision

Jack




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jeremypayne

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #150 on: September 15, 2010, 06:05:55 pm »

>>> Again, war is not a game.

Nobody is saying war is a game in that sense ... You are using a definition of a "game" that is different that Slobodan ... and you can't win the argument by re-defining the the words used by your opponent ... or maybe you just don't know what Game Theory is ...

Game Theory is a specialized field of economics that IS a good intellectual framework for analyzing complex strategic entanglements with competing, independent actors.
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JohnKoerner

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #151 on: September 15, 2010, 06:12:59 pm »

Nobody is saying war is a game in that sense ... You are using a definition of a "game" that is different that Slobodan ...

Exactly right. The definition of war is different from anything having to do with a game.




and you can't win the argument by re-defining the the words used by your opponent ...

Yes you can, if the words used by your opponent have nothing to do with the point of the discussion.



or maybe you just don't know what Game Theory is ...
Game Theory is a specialized field of economics that IS a good intellectual framework for analyzing complex strategic entanglements with competing, independent actors.

I admit to my ignorance of game theory, and (unless demonstrated otherwise) I don't think it has anything to do with war.

Jack




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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #152 on: September 15, 2010, 06:22:54 pm »

... My point was that the intel said there were WMDs, therfeore the politicians had every reason to believe there were...

And now something completely different, this time from the Vietnamese Propaganda Ministry... NOT:

1. "(CBS)  When no weapons of mass destruction surfaced in Iraq, President Bush insisted that all those WMD claims before the war were the result of faulty intelligence. But a former top CIA official, Tyler Drumheller — a 26-year veteran of the agency — has decided to do something CIA officials at his level almost never do: Speak out.

He tells correspondent Ed Bradley the real failure was not in the intelligence community but in the White House. He says he saw how the Bush administration, time and again, welcomed intelligence that fit the president's determination to go to war and turned a blind eye to intelligence that did not... http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/04/21/60minutes/main1527749.shtml

2. "Vice President Cheney and his most senior aide made multiple trips to the CIA over the past year to question analysts studying Iraq's weapons programs and alleged links to al Qaeda, creating an environment in which some analysts felt they were being pressured to make their assessments fit with the Bush administration's policy objectives, according to senior intelligence officials...." http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A15019-2003Jun4?language=printer

3. "MI6 told Tony Blair before the invasion of Iraq that a high-placed Iraqi source said that Saddam Hussein had no weapons of mass destruction. The intelligence was passed to the US but was buried by the White House, according to a new book.

The book claimed that the former Prime Minister sent a top British spy to the Middle East in 2003 — three months before the invasion — to dig up enough intelligence to avoid war but that President Bush and Dick Cheney, the Vice-President, dismissed any claims or possible evidence that would stop military action..." http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article4466512.ece

4. Shall I continue?







« Last Edit: September 15, 2010, 08:24:00 pm by Slobodan Blagojevic »
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RSL

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #153 on: September 15, 2010, 06:29:50 pm »

Yes, I heard that widespread claim that Islam is violent, and Christianity peaceful, turn-the-other-cheek religion. Now, I am definitely not a fan of Islam, and, truth to be told, I am not a fan of any organized religion, but let me offer some food for thought (for some reason I find that metaphor more appetizing than "flies..." :)).

That turn-the-other-cheek religion (and I am, by family tradition, if not practice, a part of it) is, throughout history, responsible for an incredible amount of deaths. From Inquisition, witch hunt, forced conversion (especially in Latin America), Crusaders, Conquistadors, Templars, etc., millions are killed in the name of the "peaceful" religion.

As for Islam, I am sure it had its fair share of forced conversion, but take a look at their method of spreading their influence: they mostly left conquered countries retain their language, culture and religion. How I know? My home country (Serbia) was 500 years under Turks, yet we managed to retain our identity. Similar thing in Spain.

Just a thought.

Slobodan, Read what I said again and see if it becomes clearer. I didn't say Islam is violent. I said that the Koran is a call to war, which is exactly what it is. The Pentateuch contains calls to war too, but it was modified in later gospels, especially in Christianity by what we call the New Testament, which is a call for peace. The difference, as I said, is that there's no follow-on call for peace in the Koran. You left that part out when you clipped my statement.

Yes, in some of the Koran verses there are more or less reasonable passages about how to deal with non-believers, and the caliphs who conquered Serbia and parts of Spain were pretty good politicians as well as very effective warriors, whom, I'd hasten to add, gave no quarter in battle. They were smart enough to pacify the people at their feet by allowing them things that didn't threaten the caliph's power or his suzerainty, which is one reason why Serbia stayed under the Ottomans for 500 years.

Just a thought.

By the way, Slobodan, Tyler Drumheller to the contrary notwithstanding, according to the New York Times, it appears that even Saddam's generals though he had WMD:

According to the Times story, Saddam Hussein wanted the world to believe he possessed WMD in order to create fear and thwart any war plans by the US. The revelation that Saddam's generals believed they would use WMD against American, British and other invading forces explains why the US military found protective gear had been issued to Iraqi soldiers. The top commanders wanted their troops protected from the WMD they intended to use.

"The Iraqi dictator was so secretive and kept information so compartmentalized that his top military leaders were stunned when he told them three months before the war that he had no weapons of mass destruction, and they were demoralized because they had counted on hidden stocks of poison gas or germ weapons for the nation's defense, " stated the New York Times on March 12.

"The Times story supports the testimony of two former Iraqi generals who said that prior to the war, Saddam was in possession of WMD."
« Last Edit: September 15, 2010, 06:37:45 pm by RSL »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #154 on: September 15, 2010, 06:34:20 pm »

...I admit to my ignorance of game theory, and (unless demonstrated otherwise) I don't think it has anything to do with war...

How about this for demonstration:

"... A study by RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) shows how military planners can use game theory to understand the effects of U.S. strategy and capabilities on the enemy in TCT operations. Game theory uses mathematics to model human decisionmaking in competitive situations. It is ideally suited for analyzing military situations because it depicts the realistic situation in which both sides are free to choose their best “moves” and to adjust their strategy over time. Military planners can apply these principles to TCT operations through game theoretic analysis...
 
...This research brief describes work done for RAND Project AIR FORCE and documented in A Simple Game-Theoretic Approach to Suppression of Enemy Defenses and Other Time Critical Target Analyses by Thomas Hamilton and Richard Mesic, DB-385-AF, 2004, 55 pages, ISBN: 0-8330-3259-3. (Full Document). Copies of this research brief and the complete report on which it is based are available by clicking above or through RAND Distribution Services (phone: 1-310-451-7002; toll free in the U.S.: 1-877-584-8642)."

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB108/index1.html

jeremypayne

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #155 on: September 15, 2010, 06:55:31 pm »

I admit to my ignorance of game theory, and (unless demonstrated otherwise) I don't think it has anything to do with war.

Game Theory was the foundation of American nuclear policy from the get go ... John von Neumann ... look him up.

"As rivalry with the Soviet Union heated up, Von Neumann became a strategic adviser on defense policy. He was appointed by President Dwight D. Eisenhower to the Atomic Energy Commission, which oversaw the postwar buildup of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Von Neumann's game theory became a tool to analyze the unthinkable--global nuclear war--and led to the doctrine of "mutually assured destruction," which would shape U.S. strategy for the next two decades. Von Neumann also became an icon of the cold war. Disabled with pancreatic cancer, he stoically continued to attend AEC meetings until his death in 1957. The wheelchair-bound scientist with the Hungarian accent who mathematically analyzed doomsday is said to have been a model for Stanley Kubrick's Dr. Strangelove."

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,21839,00.html#ixzz0zdqNjK3E
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JohnKoerner

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #156 on: September 15, 2010, 06:57:03 pm »

Jack,
I think you need to retract that statement. We've been having a mostly civil discussion and debate so far and I, for one, do not want to see a moderator shut it down because of a personal attack on someone.


Lighten up, it was a joke.


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JohnKoerner

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #157 on: September 15, 2010, 06:58:01 pm »

Game Theory was the foundation of American nuclear policy from the get go ... John von Neumann ... look him up.
"As rivalry with the Soviet Union heated up, Von Neumann became a strategic adviser on defense policy. He was appointed by President Dwight D. Eisenhower to the Atomic Energy Commission, which oversaw the postwar buildup of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Von Neumann's game theory became a tool to analyze the unthinkable--global nuclear war--and led to the doctrine of "mutually assured destruction," which would shape U.S. strategy for the next two decades. Von Neumann also became an icon of the cold war. Disabled with pancreatic cancer, he stoically continued to attend AEC meetings until his death in 1957. The wheelchair-bound scientist with the Hungarian accent who mathematically analyzed doomsday is said to have been a model for Stanley Kubrick's Dr. Strangelove."
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,21839,00.html#ixzz0zdqNjK3E


How about this for demonstration:
"... A study by RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) shows how military planners can use game theory to understand the effects of U.S. strategy and capabilities on the enemy in TCT operations. Game theory uses mathematics to model human decisionmaking in competitive situations. It is ideally suited for analyzing military situations because it depicts the realistic situation in which both sides are free to choose their best “moves” and to adjust their strategy over time. Military planners can apply these principles to TCT operations through game theoretic analysis...
 ...This research brief describes work done for RAND Project AIR FORCE and documented in A Simple Game-Theoretic Approach to Suppression of Enemy Defenses and Other Time Critical Target Analyses by Thomas Hamilton and Richard Mesic, DB-385-AF, 2004, 55 pages, ISBN: 0-8330-3259-3. (Full Document). Copies of this research brief and the complete report on which it is based are available by clicking above or through RAND Distribution Services (phone: 1-310-451-7002; toll free in the U.S.: 1-877-584-8642)."
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB108/index1.html

Very interesting. I do see the application of Game Theory, so I stand corrected in some sense.

However, in another sense, I feel validated. For example, of particular interest to my whole point of why using 100% full force is so effective, one of the main advantages of applying Game Theory to war was stated thus: "If both sides correctly ascertain the situation, then the losing side may decide not to participate."

If I recall correctly, I stated the use of our uttermost capabilities in destroying Japan accomplished three key elements: (1) it minimized casualties to our own American lives; (2) it brought our enemy to its knees as quickly as possible; and (3) it made our other enemies fear us enough NOT to want to get into war with us.

How is that for some "game theory?" The whole point I have been making is, in consistently NOT applying our uttermost capabilities, not only does the U.S. put itself in a position to lose, but it has encouraged lesser countries to come out of the woodwork and try us.

In the end, I don't think your familiarity with game theory changes the fact you completely misunderstood my point, nor do I think my lack of prior exposure to Game Theory minimizes my own. It merely reinforces it.

Jack




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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #158 on: September 15, 2010, 07:09:11 pm »


Lighten up, it was a joke.

Accepted as such... no problem.

Joe Behar

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Re: Ignorance
« Reply #159 on: September 15, 2010, 07:11:58 pm »

Accepted as such... no problem.

In which case I will delete my post asking for the retraction
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