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Author Topic: Antarctic trip group  (Read 3918 times)

Tklimek

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« on: February 09, 2009, 03:00:48 pm »

For those that were lucky enough to go on this trip, and those who are even LUCKIER to have gone for the past 3 years, how would you describe the climate change if at all?

I apologize if this was discussed elsewhere, but we hear so much about global warming I was wondering if the effects were much more visible in the Antarctic than in our own areas.  I did catch brief mentions in some of the postings by this group, but was interested in hearing specifically about this topic and was wondering how the participants felt about this issue

Someday I hope I can join this group for this trip!

Cheers....

Todd in Chicago (which is now warming up quite nicely!)
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Schewe

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« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2009, 03:18:14 pm »

Quote from: Tklimek
how would you describe the climate change if at all?


The 1st trip was early Dec, the 2nd middle of Feb and the 3rd the beginning of Jan. So, I don't think there's ANYTHING we can actually determine based on the total time we spent (about 40 days) spread out over Dec 05-Jan 09 and the months we went. The changes that are happening don't really show up month-month and year-year. Are we ruining the planet? Yes, of course, obviously. Is there evidence everywhere you look? No, not really.

It's really hard to tell the difference between normal weather cycles, short terms climate cycles and wholesale climate change.
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giles

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« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2009, 04:10:16 am »

Quote from: Tklimek
I apologize if this was discussed elsewhere, but we hear so much about global warming I was wondering if the effects were much more visible in the Antarctic than in our own areas.  I did catch brief mentions in some of the postings by this group, but was interested in hearing specifically about this topic and was wondering how the participants felt about this issue
Global warming is a religious issue.  I foresee a thread being shut down shortly.

There are too many vested interests on both sides of the "debate".  (I say "debate" in quotes because there appears to be more political manouvering and intentional selective quoting of statistics than real debate.)

Has the climate warmed in the last couple of centuries?   Yes, although be wary about what data you rely on in deciding how much.

Has the climate been warmer in the past?  Yes, definitely, even in historical times: the middle ages optimum is historically well recorded. (And human C02 production doesn't explain that, just by the way.) Climate has also been colder in historical times.

Do we have usable computer models?  No.  When I see a model that can handle the middle ages optimum I'll start to consider if it's credible; such models should also take into account solar activity and water vapour as a greenhouse gas to have any chance at being accurate.  (And let's not talk about the debunked hockey stick, please.)

Are humans effecting the climate?  Yes: increased CO2 and changed albedo from changed land use have some effect.  (But CO2 has been higher before, and lower -- it's not static even without human activity.)

Is human activity the main (or even a major) input to climate change?  I think not, but the question is open and worthy of research.  Certainly, continuing to increase CO2 without knowing if it's a good thing or a bad thing is something to  be wary about, but I worry a lot more about global cooling (the bogey man in the 70's and early 80's when I was in high school, and still a real possibility) than in global warming.

Giles
« Last Edit: February 12, 2009, 04:10:40 am by giles »
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Wayne Fox

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« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2009, 05:19:43 pm »

Quote from: giles
Global warming is a religious issue.  I foresee a thread being shut down shortly.

Actually considering Jeff posted this reply several days ago, it appears that perhaps despite differences of opinion, on this forum no one really wanted to go there.  The thread was already headed to the archive.
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Tklimek

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« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2009, 07:54:36 pm »

 

Actually I wasn't trying to create a deep meaningfull debate or a religious war, just was wondering if folks who had been there 3 years in a row at roughly the same time were able to notice a perceptible shift or not.  I don't think I can say (here in Chicago) that I have noticed a shift; however it seems like a do see articles from time to time that indicate that people who live in those nether regions are seeing the climate change more pereceptibly than I am able.

:-)

Thread is dead.

Cheers...

Todd in "still pretty damn cold" Chicago


Quote from: Wayne Fox
Actually considering Jeff posted this reply several days ago, it appears that perhaps despite differences of opinion, on this forum no one really wanted to go there.  The thread was already headed to the archive.
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Tim Gray

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« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2009, 08:49:39 am »

Any apparent change between 2005 2007 and 2009 is weather, not climate.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2009, 08:49:55 am by Tim Gray »
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dmerger

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« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2009, 06:08:33 am »

Here is an interesting photo from the NASA web site that is right on topic.

http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap090215.html

Coincidence or conspiracy?  
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Dean Erger

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« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2009, 03:57:41 pm »

Well, a shift of 1.5 degress is not nessecarily something you would be shocked from in Chicago or even notice it. In arctic or antarctic dimensions however, this is a entirely different story.

The ice is melting at a rate totally unexpected not so long ago, this much is accepted in scientific circles.

Whatever the participation of mankind in the process, the process is happening. What was prediced to happen in around 150-200 years, now has been substantially reduced due to the latest data made available through satellite technology and interdisciplinary exchange.

But such is the nature of predictive models, they change with the increace of available data.

Not to be understimated in my opinion is the data that locals can provide who live there scince generations, and some of the reports are drastic to say the least!

Most fascinating journey I imagine!

Spring Greetings from Irland
 
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