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Author Topic: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine  (Read 107080 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #300 on: March 07, 2021, 11:00:32 pm »

I would follow the advice in the article and take whatever is available to me first.

Got Questions About Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 Vaccine? We Have Answers

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/03/04/got-questions-about-johnson-johnsons-covid-19-vaccine-we-have-answers

Short excerpt - More at link above

Will I be as well protected against getting super sick with COVID-19 if I get the J&J shot as if I get a two-dose version from Pfizer or Moderna?

"When we look at the thing we probably care about most — making sure that we don't end up in the ICU or dying — the efficacy of the three vaccines is virtually identical," says Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, chair of the department of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco.

The perception that some vaccines may be better than others has to do with the topline numbers from efficacy studies. The mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna were both found to be about 95% effective against preventing symptomatic COVID-19 after the second dose. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine, by contrast, was found to be 66% protective against moderate and severe disease overall worldwide, and 72% protective against such cases in the U.S.

But you can't really compare those numbers head to head, says Pierre, because "these were different trials in different places at different times," and the strains of the coronavirus running around were likely somewhat different. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was tested more recently, including in South Africa and Brazil, at a time when more contagious variants of the coronavirus were widely circulating in those countries. The Moderna and Pfizer clinical studies, meanwhile, were started earlier, before such variants had become widespread.

Given those differences, Bibbins-Domingo says "the number you should probably compare is 85%" — that's how effective the J & J vaccine was found to be at preventing severe disease four weeks after immunization.

Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, agrees that the J&J vaccine seems to be "terrific" at saving lives. He tells NPR he's advising his family members to take whichever vaccine comes their way first.

Why shouldn't I just hold out for the vaccine with the highest efficacy rate?

Get whichever vaccine you can as soon as you're eligible, Pierre, Jha and other infectious disease experts urge. The longer you go unvaccinated, the longer you're at risk of contracting a COVID-19 infection that potentially could kill you.

"I view it as a race against time," Pierre says, based on the data and her own experience with her mom. Pierre scrambled to schedule an immunization appointment for her mother as soon as the older woman became eligible. But before she could get immunized, she was diagnosed with COVID-19.

Pierre's mom recovered from that infection, but more than 500,000 other Americans have not been so fortunate.

The Germans disagreed with you.  They seemed very concerned with efficacies. Their concern about Astra zeneca put them behind the eightball.

Germany should have led the world at handling the pandemic. But experts slam Merkel's vaccine response as a disaster
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/07/europe/germany-vaccine-disaster-grm-intl/index.html

jeremyrh

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #301 on: March 08, 2021, 03:42:37 am »

The Germans disagreed with you.  They seemed very concerned with efficacies. Their concern about Astra zeneca put them behind the eightball.

Germany should have led the world at handling the pandemic. But experts slam Merkel's vaccine response as a disaster
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/07/europe/germany-vaccine-disaster-grm-intl/index.html

You can sort of understand their point that at that moment there was limited complete trial data on over 65s so they were erring on the side of caution. That is maybe not the right call in a pandemic, but the reasoning was clear. What messed things up was that at the same time the EU were having a spat with Astra Zeneca about the contract to supply vaccines and Macron's small brain got overloaded and he described the AZ vaccine as "quasi-ineffective", which led to a lot of confusion, and there is still a lot of negativity about the AZ vaccine in many people who you'd have expected to know better.

On this occasion, it seems that the UK got it right.  Well, you can't be wrong ALL the time.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #302 on: March 08, 2021, 08:56:29 am »

You can sort of understand their point that at that moment there was limited complete trial data on over 65s so they were erring on the side of caution. That is maybe not the right call in a pandemic, but the reasoning was clear. What messed things up was that at the same time the EU were having a spat with Astra Zeneca about the contract to supply vaccines and Macron's small brain got overloaded and he described the AZ vaccine as "quasi-ineffective", which led to a lot of confusion, and there is still a lot of negativity about the AZ vaccine in many people who you'd have expected to know better.

On this occasion, it seems that the UK got it right.  Well, you can't be wrong ALL the time.
Maybe Brexit helped.  Having to think and operate independently worked for you Brits.  It appears from the article that the EU countries were depending  for answers from Germany and a common roadmap while you made your own decisions. 

faberryman

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #303 on: March 08, 2021, 01:01:49 pm »

Here are the new CDC Guidelines for fully vaccinated people.  They are really going to set Joe's hair on fire.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html
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LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #304 on: March 08, 2021, 01:03:13 pm »

Czech Republic went from best to worst in just one year.

Quote
As the virus crept into Europe in early 2020, the Czech government acted. Starting in March of last year, the country of 10.6 million people went into almost total lockdown and stayed locked down for five weeks. Shops, schools, even the borders were shut. Masks had to be worn outside.

But by March 2021, the situation was catastrophic. According to World Health Organization statistics, the Czech Republic now leads the world in new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population — 1,597 as of Saturday.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/czech-republic-europe-covid-19-1.5938504
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TechTalk

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #305 on: March 08, 2021, 01:47:18 pm »

The Germans disagreed with you.  They seemed very concerned with efficacies. Their concern about Astra zeneca put them behind the eightball.

I've never had a discussion with "The Germans", or anyone else, about the efficacy of the AstraZeneca vaccine or any concern they may have, or had, about it.

I am involved in a discussion about the three currently available vaccines in the United States and the currently available data on their efficacy and effectiveness relative to each other and the differences in the way in which the various clinical trials were conducted for those vaccines.

All three are highly efficacious and effective at providing protection against serious to critical illness and death. All three are relatively scarce in availability relative to the adult population that would benefit from being vaccinated with any of them. The wise choice is to take whichever is available to you as early as possible rather than take the risk of becoming infected, and the concomitant risk of serious illness or death, while waiting for a specific vaccine to become available to you.

It's difficult to make anything other than broad comparisons between the vaccine choices from Pfizer, Moderna, and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson / J&J) because they were tested at different times and in different places with different variants of the virus. Comparison is also difficult as the currently available data is derived from the limited clinical trials conducted prior to Emergency Use Authorization. Due to the immediate need for a means of slowing the spread of the virus, they were put into use under Emergency Use Authorization without lengthy clinical trials to produce more granular data. For instance, the J&J vaccine was tested in Brazil and South Africa at a time when variants of the virus were widespread and was shown to be protective against those variants. That data is limited at present for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Much more will be learned over time regarding the various vaccines as they are administered over a wider population. However, what is known is that all three have demonstrated highly effective protection against serious to critical illness from COVID-19 and as a result reducing deaths.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/how-the-different-covid-vaccines-will-handle-variants

In the case of the Janssen (Johnson & Johnson / J&J) vaccine, which is the principle point of discussion in the Q&A article that I linked and the few comments that I made regarding it, the FDA conclusion was...

Efficacy against severe/critical COVID-19 (key secondary efficacy endpoint):
• Onset ≥14 days after vaccination: 76.7% (54.6, 89.1)
• Onset ≥28 days after vaccination: 85.4% (54.2, 96.9)

Reduction in COVID-19 requiring medical intervention:
• Onset ≥14 days after vaccination: 2 in vaccine group vs. 29 in placebo group
• Onset ≥28 days after vaccination: 0 in vaccine group vs. 16 in placebo group
 
Whatever conversation is happening inside your head regarding Germany and the AstraZeneca vaccine is not one I am a part of nor do I wish to be. Take that discussion to "The Germans".
« Last Edit: March 08, 2021, 03:29:08 pm by TechTalk »
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Chris Kern

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #306 on: March 08, 2021, 01:52:36 pm »

Here are the new CDC Guidelines for fully vaccinated people.

An accompanying background article summarizes the rationale and evidence for the guidance:

Quote
COVID-19 vaccines currently authorized in the United States are effective against COVID-19, including severe disease.

Preliminary evidence suggests that the currently authorized COVID-19 vaccines may provide some protection against a variety of strains, including B.1.1.7 (originally identified in the United Kingdom). However, reduced antibody neutralization and efficacy have been observed for the B.1.351 strain (originally identified in South Africa).

A growing body of evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are less likely to have asymptomatic infection and potentially less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. However, further investigation is ongoing.

Modeling studies suggest that preventive measures such as mask use and social distancing will continue to be important during vaccine implementation. However, there are ways to take a balanced approach by allowing vaccinated people to resume some lower-risk activities.

Taking steps towards relaxing certain measures for vaccinated persons may help improve COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake.

The risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in fully vaccinated people cannot be completely eliminated as long as there is continued community transmission of the virus. Vaccinated people could potentially still get COVID-19 and spread it to others. However, the benefits of relaxing some measures such as quarantine requirements and reducing social isolation may outweigh the residual risk of fully vaccinated people becoming ill with COVID-19 or transmitting the virus to others.

While the scientific understanding of SARS-CoV-2 is evolving, so is the virus.  We're in a worldwide race between the effort to get the pandemic under control by achieving mass immunity and the spread of mutated variants that appear at least partly to evade the protective effects of the vaccines.  And, ominously,

Quote
According to a survey conducted right as the first COVID-19 vaccine was authorized in the United States, most people expected it would take at least 6 months after vaccine rollout before they were able to resume activities such as going out to dinner, going to a gym class, or staying in a hotel.  However, a survey conducted less than 2 months into the vaccination program suggest that over half of the general U.S. adult population have already started resuming some of these activities despite the risk of COVID-19 because they “just want their life back.”  Reasons for taking fewer COVID-19 precautions than they did a month ago included COVID-19 fatigue, belief that population-based immunity has been achieved through vaccination or disease, belief about reduced disease risk for themselves as others get vaccinated, belief that they no longer pose a threat to high-risk people because high-risk groups are receiving protection through vaccination, and receipt of the vaccines themselves.  [Citations omitted.]

So in addition to the race between mass immunity and the mutations, there's a parallel contest taking place between the empirical evidence and the personal emotional reactions people are experiencing to the protracted restrictions.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2021, 02:04:23 pm by Chris Kern »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #307 on: March 08, 2021, 03:05:15 pm »

I've never had a discussion with "The Germans", or anyone else, about the efficacy of the AstraZeneca vaccine or any concern they may have, or had, about it.

I am involved in a discussion about the three currently available vaccines in the United States and the currently available data on their efficacy and effectiveness relative to each other and the differences in the way in which the various clinical trials were conducted for those vaccines.

All three are highly efficacious and effective at providing protection against serious to critical illness and death. All three are relatively scarce in availability relative to the adult population that would benefit from being vaccinated with any of them. The wise choice is to take whichever is available to you as early as possible rather than take the risk of becoming infected, and the concomitant risk of serious illness or death, while waiting for a specific vaccine to become available to you.

It's difficult to make anything other than broad comparisons between the vaccine choices from Pfizer, Moderna, and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson / J&J) because they were tested at different times and in different places with different variants of the virus. Comparison is also difficult as the currently available data is derived from the limited clinical trials conducted prior to Emergency Use Authorization. Due to the immediate need for a means of slowing the spread of the virus, they were put into use under Emergency Use Authorization without lengthy clinical trials to produce more granular data. For instance, the J&J  vaccine was tested in Brazil and South Africa at a time when variants of the virus were widespread and was shown to be protective against those variants. That data is limited at present for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Much more will be learned over time regarding the various vaccines as they are administered over a wider population. However, what is known is that all three have demonstrated highly effective protection against serious to critical illness from COVID-19 and prevention of death.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/how-the-different-covid-vaccines-will-handle-variants

In the case of the Janssen (Johnson & Johnson / J&J) vaccine, which is the principle point of discussion in the Q&A article that I linked and the few comments that I made regarding it, the FDA conclusion was...

Efficacy against severe/critical COVID-19 (key secondary efficacy endpoint):
• Onset ≥14 days after vaccination: 76.7% (54.6, 89.1)
• Onset ≥28 days after vaccination: 85.4% (54.2, 96.9)

Reduction in COVID-19 requiring medical intervention:
• Onset ≥14 days after vaccination: 2 in vaccine group vs. 29 in placebo group
• Onset ≥28 days after vaccination: 0 in vaccine group vs. 16 in placebo group
 
Whatever conversation is happening inside your head regarding Germany and the AstraZeneca vaccine is not one I am a part of nor do I wish to be. Take that discussion to "The Germans".
I didn't suggest you shouldn't take what you can get.  I'm just stating that J&J's vaccine is not as effective as the other two.   

Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #308 on: March 08, 2021, 03:13:21 pm »

New CDC recommendations for Americans who have been vaccinated.

Given the current state of research, the C.D.C. advised:

-Fully vaccinated Americans may gather indoors in private homes in small groups without masks or distancing. Vaccinated people may gather in a private residence without masks or distancing with unvaccinated people, so long as they are from a single household and are at low risk for developing severe disease should they contract the coronavirus.

-Vaccinated Americans need not quarantine or get tested if they have a known exposure to the virus, as long as they do not develop symptoms of infection. If they do develop symptoms, they must isolate themselves, get tested and speak with their doctors.

-In public, vaccinated people must continue to wear masks, maintain social distance and take other precautions, such as avoiding poorly ventilated spaces, covering coughs and sneezes, washing hands often and following any other protocols that are in place.

-Vaccinated people should avoid gatherings with multiple households, as well as large and medium-sized gatherings. (The agency did not specify what size constitutes a medium or large gathering.)

The C.D.C. did not revise its travel recommendations, continuing to advise that all Americans stay home unless necessary. Dr. Walensky noted that virus cases have surged every time there has been an increase in travel.

“We are really trying to restrain travel,” she said. “And we’re hopeful that our next set of guidance will have more science around what vaccinated people can do, perhaps travel being among them.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/03/08/world/covid-19-coronavirus#covid-vaccine-cdc-guidelines

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #309 on: March 08, 2021, 03:23:17 pm »

Down with the CDC! Down with fascist lockdowns and mask mandates! Live free or die!

faberryman

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #310 on: March 08, 2021, 03:28:30 pm »

New CDC recommendations for Americans who have been vaccinated...

I guess Alan has me on ignore, since I posted a link to the new CDC guidelines an hour or so ago.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #311 on: March 08, 2021, 03:32:48 pm »

Down with the CDC! Down with fascist lockdowns and mask mandates! Live free or die!
Switzerland just voted against masks.

Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #312 on: March 08, 2021, 03:33:52 pm »

I guess Alan has me on ignore, since I posted a link to the new CDC guidelines an hour or so ago.
Didn't see your post for some reason.  Sorry if I stepped on your toes. 

faberryman

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #313 on: March 08, 2021, 03:36:39 pm »

Damn.
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faberryman

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #314 on: March 08, 2021, 03:42:34 pm »

Down with the CDC! Down with fascist lockdowns and mask mandates! Live free or die!

They are guidelines. You don't have to follow them.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #315 on: March 08, 2021, 03:49:37 pm »

Switzerland just voted against masks.

Nothing to do with C-19. To clarify, the Swiss voted against wearing burkas by Muslim women in public.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56314173
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TechTalk

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #316 on: March 08, 2021, 03:51:58 pm »

I'm just stating that J&J's vaccine is not as effective as the other two.

Unnecessary. The currently known data was already covered in the article which you described as doublespeak. In addition, the article indicated that based on currently limited data you can't really make head to head comparisons among them.

But you can't really compare those numbers head to head, says Pierre, because "these were different trials in different places at different times," and the strains of the coronavirus running around were likely somewhat different. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was tested more recently, including in South Africa and Brazil, at a time when more contagious variants of the coronavirus were widely circulating in those countries. The Moderna and Pfizer clinical studies, meanwhile, were started earlier, before such variants had become widespread.

Given those differences, Bibbins-Domingo says "the number you should probably compare is 85%" — that's how effective the J & J vaccine was found to be at preventing severe disease four weeks after immunization.

How the effectiveness of each will be judged over a longer period of time and a broader population is unknown. Efficacy and effectiveness of vaccines are two different measures. At the moment, all we have is limited data on efficacy and and even less data on effectiveness as new variants emerge.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/how-the-different-covid-vaccines-will-handle-variants

So far, studies suggest that the vaccines currently in use can recognize the emerging variants — but they don’t provide as much protection against these new strains. The variant from South Africa, for example, reduced Pfizer-BioNTech’s antibody protection by two-thirds, according to a February study. Moderna’s neutralizing antibodies dropped six-fold with the South Africa variant.

(Experts say that it’s worth noting that Johnson & Johnson’s trials took place when the new variants had already become the dominant strains in South Africa and Brazil, while Moderna’s and Pfizer’s trials took place before that happened.)

Pfizer says South African variant could significantly reduce protective antibodies

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-variants/pfizer-says-south-african-variant-could-significantly-reduce-protective-antibodies

A laboratory study suggests that the South African variant of the coronavirus may reduce protective antibodies elicited by the Pfizer Inc/BioNTech SE vaccine by two-thirds, and it is not clear if the shot will be effective against the mutation, the companies said on Wednesday.

The study found the vaccine was still able to neutralize the virus and there is not yet evidence from trials in people that the variant reduces vaccine protection, the companies said.


https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/what-is-vaccine-efficacy

Vaccine efficacy is the percentage reduction in a disease in a group of people who received a vaccination in a clinical trial. It differs from vaccine effectiveness, which measures how well a vaccine works when given to people in the community outside of clinical trials.

Vaccine efficacy only provides information about how well a vaccine works under the conditions of the clinical trial. Scientists usually base it on factors that they can quantify, such as numbers of laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19.

But the ideal conditions of a clinical trial do not necessarily reflect what is happening in the real world outside of clinical trials.

Vaccine effectiveness tells us how well a vaccine works under real-world conditions once people outside of clinical trials receive the vaccine.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2021, 04:34:48 pm by TechTalk »
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TechTalk

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #317 on: March 08, 2021, 03:54:25 pm »

Down with the CDC! Down with fascist lockdowns and mask mandates! Live free or die!

Down with ignorance of science and rigid ideology!
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LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #318 on: March 08, 2021, 03:55:38 pm »

Down with the CDC! Down with fascist lockdowns and mask mandates! Live free or die!

Actually, it should be worded as - live free AND die!
As pointed out in my previous post, Czech Republic went from best place to worst place in C-19 spread simply by lifting the lockdown restrictions and stopping the mask wearing starting in summer 2020.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2021, 04:59:36 pm by LesPalenik »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #319 on: March 08, 2021, 07:08:17 pm »

Nothing to do with C-19. To clarify, the Swiss voted against wearing burkas by Muslim women in public.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56314173
You're right.  Additionally, I posted in the wrong thread.  It belongs in the other thread about politics, racism, and other issues about man's inhumanity to man. 
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