Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine

[jeremyrh]

I suppose you also think vaccines cause Autism, since Autism is diagnosed shortly after infants get their shots.  Makes sense, right? 

Nope, makes no sense at all, but I don't see that stopping you.

Lockdown measures typically are put in place after the spread has already started and is partially on it's way to burn out.  Regardless of lockdowns or not, the second wave this past winter in the USA came in and went out regardless of lockdown status with many similarities between states with and without measures.

Absolute rubbish - what mechanism can you imagine for the infection "burning out"?

[jeremyrh]

You don't like facts, do you?

Sure I do. And what I like better is an honest analysis of the data and not just cherry picked BS

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... just cherry picked BS

 

As a side note, Florida has the oldest demographics in the US. That itself should put it on top of the list, but it didn't. Remember those discussions here on the forum how FL is going to implode, "just wait two weeks," a year ago?

[Alan Klein]

As a side note, Florida has the oldest demographics in the US. That itself should put it on top of the list, but it didn't. Remember those discussions here on the forum how FL is going to implode, "just wait two weeks," a year ago?

A lot of my retired friends, "snowbirds", went to Florida again this winter for the sun. It seems they were able to get vaccinated quicker there as non-residents than here in New Jersey as residents. 

[JoeKitchen]

Nope, makes no sense at all, but I don't see that stopping you.

Absolute rubbish - what mechanism can you imagine for the infection "burning out"?

Well great, we are in agreement that just because something happens around the same time an action is taken, like Autism being detected after an infant gets his shots, the two are not necessarily connected.  Very similar to the notion that just because lockdowns went into effect around the same time C-19 started to decrease that the two are not necessarily connected. 

As to what mechanism other then lockdowns could have caused this, increase in the number of people immune from infection (burning out) or vaccination, better weather conditions, people spending more time outside where it does not spread, etc. 

[jeremyrh]

As a side note, Florida has the oldest demographics in the US. That itself should put it on top of the list, but it didn't.

It should if every other characteristic of Florida was the same as every other state, and there was no travel between states.

[jeremyrh]

As to what mechanism other then lockdowns could have caused this, increase in the number of people immune from infection (burning out) or vaccination, better weather conditions, people spending more time outside where it does not spread, etc.

The numbers of people immune have never approached herd immunity levels, even in places with really high levels of infection. Vaccination had not started last summer or last winter. Reductions in cases following lockdown occurred in summer and in winter.

Want to try again?

[JoeKitchen]

To you. Fair enough. I can't argue against what you find meaningful.

For me, however, it means that if you are one of those 220 million (that is, ⅔ of the US population), your chances of dying from and with Covid are 0.016%. Quite negligible. I think falling in the bathtub is higher than that.

Just to add to this, that is a 1 in 6250 odds of dying from C-19 if you under 55, being beat out by such things as:

Being a Pedestrian, 1/610
Being in a Car or other vehicle, 1/242
Off-roading, 1/4993
Falling out of bed, chair, or some other piece of furniture, 1/5508
Firearms, 1/4613
Chocking to death on food, 1/4812

There are plenty of more. 

https://danger.mongabay.com/injury_death.htm

[jeremyrh]

Just to add to this, that is a 1 in 6250 odds of dying from C-19 if you under 55, being beat out by such things as:

Being a Pedestrian, 1/610
Being in a Car or other vehicle, 1/242
Off-roading, 1/4993
Falling out of bed, chair, or some other piece of furniture, 1/5508
Firearms, 1/4613
Chocking to death on food, 1/4812

There are plenty of more. 

https://danger.mongabay.com/injury_death.htm

You are quoting lifetime odds, comparing with one year of risk from Covid.

Joe - your previous posts on other subjects gave me the impression that you are smarter than this, which makes me think that you are simply being dishonest.  Disappointing.

[JoeKitchen]

The numbers of people immune have never approached herd immunity levels, even in places with really high levels of infection. Vaccination had not started last summer or last winter. Reductions in cases following lockdown occurred in summer and in winter.

Want to try again?

Sure.

Viruses ebb and flow over time for reasons that are not fully understood.  The Flu does this, and it does not disappear because we all suddenly wear masks and lockdown.  It is just a natural thing that happens, just like with C-19. 

FYI, in logic you only need one counter example to disprove a statement.  FL is my counter to your above statement.  They did not lockdown last summer and the same ebb and flow occurred. 

[JoeKitchen]

You are quoting lifetime odds, comparing with one year of risk from Covid.

Joe - your previous posts on other subjects gave me the impression that you are smarter than this, which makes me think that you are simply being dishonest.  Disappointing.

So dying from C-19 is not a once in a lifetime event? 

Insofar as being dishonest, I wholly feel that we should not have shut down society over this decease, or that we should have realized it was a mistake to do so last May.  Last May is when we knew, without a doubt, that this effected mainly the elderly and that there were ways to keep our economy operating while protecting those whom are vulnerable. 

[Alan Klein]

I think trying to make judgments about cause and effect at this point is fraught with unreliability.  As I said many times, let's wait until the virus has passed, the fat lady has sung, and we can add up numbers and analyze all the statistics.  I think we're going to find some strange relationships as well as very obvious logical cause and effect.  Just yesterday, I was reading that countries with high rates of obesity raise the numbers substantially.  So maybe, we should have shut down all the MacDonald's and Dunkin' Donuts across the country. 

[jeremyrh]

So dying from C-19 is not a once in a lifetime event? 

Insofar as being dishonest, I wholly feel that we should not have shut down society over this decease, or that we should have realized it was a mistake to do so last May.  Last May is when we knew, without a doubt, that this effected mainly the elderly and that there were ways to keep our economy operating while protecting those whom are vulnerable.

You are comparing the risk of a young person dying of Covid over one year with a person dying from a lifetime of driving or whatever.  It would be more honest to assume that everyone will eventually get Covid, and then compare the risk with walking. 

On top of that you are forgetting that we don't know the extent or severity of "long Covid" in young people, or that even if people don't eventually die, the sickness can be very severe with long term implications, and that while they are sick they are occupying hospital beds that are no longer avaiable for other patients with cancer or whatever 

For the rest, it's simply unworkable as well as inhumane to isolate everyone over 65. There will always be "leaks" - who is going to care for these people? Are they never to see their families again?  I realise that you are under this age, so those considerations are of no importance to you, but maybe Alan would not be happy to be sent to some latter day leper colony.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

You are quoting lifetime odds, comparing with one year of risk from Covid...

I am not sure that is correct. Such stats are usually obtained by comparing annual deaths.

[Alan Klein]

You are comparing the risk of a young person dying of Covid over one year with a person dying from a lifetime of driving or whatever.  It would be more honest to assume that everyone will eventually get Covid, and then compare the risk with walking. 

On top of that you are forgetting that we don't know the extent or severity of "long Covid" in young people, or that even if people don't eventually die, the sickness can be very severe with long term implications, and that while they are sick they are occupying hospital beds that are no longer avaiable for other patients with cancer or whatever 

For the rest, it's simply unworkable as well as inhumane to isolate everyone over 65. There will always be "leaks" - who is going to care for these people? Are they never to see their families again?  I realise that you are under this age, so those considerations are of no importance to you, but maybe Alan would not be happy to be sent to some latter day leper colony.

Is my choice of either a leper colony or staying locked up with my wife for a whole year?

Hmmm.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

You are comparing the risk of a young person dying of Covid over one year with a person dying from a lifetime of driving or whatever.  It would be more honest to assume that everyone will eventually get Covid, and then compare the risk with walking. 

On top of that you are forgetting that we don't know the extent or severity of "long Covid" in young people, or that even if people don't eventually die, the sickness can be very severe with long term implications, and that while they are sick they are occupying hospital beds that are no longer avaiable for other patients with cancer or whatever 

For the rest, it's simply unworkable as well as inhumane to isolate everyone over 65. There will always be "leaks" - who is going to care for these people? Are they never to see their families again?  I realise that you are under this age, so those considerations are of no importance to you, but maybe Alan would not be happy to be sent to some latter day leper colony.

I would like to respond, but you are piling up so many stupid statements in a single post that I can't keep up 

[JoeKitchen]

You are comparing the risk of a young person dying of Covid over one year with a person dying from a lifetime of driving or whatever.  It would be more honest to assume that everyone will eventually get Covid, and then compare the risk with walking. 

On top of that you are forgetting that we don't know the extent or severity of "long Covid" in young people, or that even if people don't eventually die, the sickness can be very severe with long term implications, and that while they are sick they are occupying hospital beds that are no longer avaiable for other patients with cancer or whatever 

For the rest, it's simply unworkable as well as inhumane to isolate everyone over 65. There will always be "leaks" - who is going to care for these people? Are they never to see their families again?  I realise that you are under this age, so those considerations are of no importance to you, but maybe Alan would not be happy to be sent to some latter day leper colony.

Perhaps I was being a little deliberately loose with what I was choosing to reference.  However my point stands, C-19 is much less risky then other occurrences we rarely ever think about, such as strolling along the sidewalk.  Who would have thought being a pedestrian came with a 1/610 chance of dying.  That is a 0.16% chance of dying on the side of the road, yet we still take those strolls. 

Meanwhile, the IFR for under 45 is 0.05%.  Note, although my previous comparison may have been a little tongue in cheek, comparing these two stats is statistically sound.  So, 0.16% chance of death and we doing nothing about it, vs. 0.05% and we are suppose to shut down the world.  BTW this does not take into account the chances of catching it first, which if we did, would lower the chances of death from C-19 even more over a lifetime. 

PS
Your second point is well intentioned, but what are your solutions, just hole up for all of time. 

And your third point in contradictory in a few ways.  Just to elaborate on one of them, in essence you are arguing it is inhumane to lockdown seniors, not to mention even if we did some of those pesky bastards would slip out anyway.  So, lets just lockdown all of society instead, much more humane. 

BTW, I am not for locking down anyone, even seniors.  I am for letting people make their own risk assessment, and for those who are in the vulnerable category, provide concessions that will allow them to stay locked up if they so choose to. 

[LesPalenik]

If you move to Cambodia or Greenland, you'll eliminate C-19 dangers altogether. They haven't had any C-19 deaths.

[faberryman]

Perhaps I was being a little deliberately loose with what I was choosing to reference.  However my point stands, C-19 is much less risky then other occurrences we rarely ever think about, such as strolling along the sidewalk.  Who would have thought being a pedestrian came with a 1/610 chance of dying.  That is a 0.16% chance of dying on the side of the road, yet we still take those strolls. 

Meanwhile, the IFR for under 45 is 0.05%.  Note, although my previous comparison may have been a little tongue in cheek, comparing these two stats is statistically sound.  So, 0.16% chance of death and we doing nothing about it, vs. 0.05% and we are suppose to shut down the world.  BTW this does not take into account the chances of catching it first, which if we did, would lower the chances of death from C-19 even more over a lifetime. 

PS
Your second point is well intentioned, but what are your solutions, just hole up for all of time. 

And your third point in contradictory in a few ways.  Just to elaborate on one of them, in essence you are arguing it is inhumane to lockdown seniors, not to mention even if we did some of those pesky bastards would slip out anyway.  So, lets just lockdown all of society instead, much more humane. 

BTW, I am not for locking down anyone, even seniors.  I am for letting people make their own risk assessment, and for those who are in the vulnerable category, provide concessions that will allow them to stay locked up if they so choose to.

You are not helping your position with hyperbolic statements like:

...we are suppose to shut down the world.

...just hole up for all of time.

So, lets just lockdown all of society...

Beyond just sounding dumb, you are employing two logical fallacies: straw man and reduction to absurdity.

[Alan Klein]

I think we all judge risk differently, even with other things beside Covid.  And those change as we age or circumstances change.

For example, now that my wife and I have both shots, and it's been two weeks, we stopped waiting a day before handling mail.  I don't wipe off packages like food anymore.  I don't wash my hands as often.  I'm feeling safer although I'm not ready to get together with anyone other than my wife right now.  (Not sure if that sounded right.)  But I'm sure, the first time I do, well, that will open the doors to feel safer to get together with others.  Sort of like jumping into a cold pool.  Once you do it the water's fine. Next week, I'm going to get a haircut and wash the cars to get a year's worth of mud off.  The cars, not my hair.