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Author Topic: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine  (Read 82796 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #80 on: February 21, 2021, 08:10:54 am »

When Could the United States Reach Herd Immunity? Itís Complicated.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html

LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #81 on: February 21, 2021, 09:41:03 am »

When Could the United States Reach Herd Immunity? Itís Complicated.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html

Not so much complicated, as false. That myth has been dispelled a long time ago.

Quote
Herd immunity, also known as ďpopulation immunity,Ē refers to the situation when enough members of a population, or ďherd,Ē develop immunity to a pathogen to prevent further outbreaks. But not all infectious diseases can be controlled through herd immunity. Success depends on two factors:
- The percentage of the population that must develop immunity before the disease is controlled
- How long immunity lasts

https://intermountainhealthcare.org/blogs/topics/covid-19/2020/11/debunking-the-myth-of-non-vaccine-herd-immunity-in-covid-19/
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faberryman

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #82 on: February 21, 2021, 10:01:50 am »

Not so much complicated, as false. That myth has been dispelled a long time ago.

https://intermountainhealthcare.org/blogs/topics/covid-19/2020/11/debunking-the-myth-of-non-vaccine-herd-immunity-in-covid-19/

As one epidemilogist explained it:

Herd theory is simply the theory which states that if you do nothing during a pandemic, the people who don't die have immunity. For example, the Plague. Eventually, the pandemic ran it's course, and what followed was the Renaissance. Whose against the Renaissance?
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #83 on: February 21, 2021, 10:19:35 am »

Not so much complicated, as false. That myth has been dispelled a long time ago.

https://intermountainhealthcare.org/blogs/topics/covid-19/2020/11/debunking-the-myth-of-non-vaccine-herd-immunity-in-covid-19/
The article you referenced addresses the issue from the standpoint of natural herd immunity.  It doesn't address adding vaccinations to hardly any degree.  At the time it was published, in Nov 2020, vaccines were not even out yet and they looked at it from a non-vaccination standpoint. 

In America, there have already been over 60 million vaccinations or roughly 18% of the general population, higher if you eliminate children in the population who don;t appear to spread the disease or get infected to a large degree.  Some have estimated we may have 33% infected already naturally, so we're at 50% when you add the vaccinations to date. 

The fact is the spread is down to about half of what it was just a couple of months ago.  We're running out of people to get infected as well.  Finally, herd immunity is a well-established medical understanding.  The writers of that article need to update their predictions.  They're wrong.

Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #84 on: February 21, 2021, 10:22:29 am »

As one epidemilogist explained it:

Herd theory is simply the theory which states that if you do nothing during a pandemic, the people who don't die have immunity. For example, the Plague. Eventually, the pandemic ran it's course, and what followed was the Renaissance. Whose against the Renaissance?
That's exactly what's happening with COvid. However, we're also vaccinating the population.  Also, medical procedures save people today and the disease is not as deadly as the plague. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #85 on: February 21, 2021, 10:27:32 am »

The article you referenced addresses the issue from the standpoint of natural herd immunity.  It doesn't address adding vaccinations to hardly any degree.  At the time it was published, in Nov 2020, vaccines were not even out yet and they looked at it from a non-vaccination standpoint. 
"
"In America, there have already been over 60 million vaccinations or roughly 18% of the general population, higher if you eliminate children in the population who don;t appear to spread the disease or get infected to a large degree.  Some have estimated we may have 33% infected already naturally, so we're at 50% when you add the vaccinations to date. 

The fact is the spread is down to about half of what it was just a couple of months ago.  We're running out of people to get infected as well.  Finally, herd immunity is a well-established medical understanding.  The writers of that article need to update their predictions.  They're wrong."
"

The last two paragraphs from their article provide positive news about vaccines and would provide herd immunity.  So actually, their beliefs are better considering we now have effective vaccines.  The article was published before the vaccines came out in Nov.

The goal of vaccines is to stimulate long-lasting immunity without the collateral damage of natural infection. We donít yet know how long lasting the immunity from the vaccine candidates will be, but if they prove to have a good safety profile, they will represent the only viable way of achieving herd immunity, even if it means yearly vaccination.

Until a vaccine is widely available, we must suppress transmission by limiting contact with non-household members, and wearing masks and distancing when contact with others is unavoidable. These measures work and will limit unnecessary deaths and economic impact while we wait for an effective vaccine.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2021, 11:01:13 am by Alan Klein »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #86 on: February 21, 2021, 10:59:08 am »

Israeli data shows Pfizer vaccine nearly 99 percent effective at preventing COVID-19 death 2 weeks after 2nd dose
The early results on lab-confirmed infections are important because they show the vaccine may also prevent asymptomatic carriers from spreading the virus that causes Covid-19, something that hadnít been clear so far. Stopping transmission in this way is a key factor as countries seek to lift contact restrictions and re-open economies.
https://news.yahoo.com/israeli-data-shows-pfizer-vaccine-185500893.html

LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #87 on: February 21, 2021, 12:32:44 pm »

The article you referenced addresses the issue from the standpoint of natural herd immunity.  It doesn't address adding vaccinations to hardly any degree.  At the time it was published, in Nov 2020, vaccines were not even out yet and they looked at it from a non-vaccination standpoint. 

In America, there have already been over 60 million vaccinations or roughly 18% of the general population, higher if you eliminate children in the population who don;t appear to spread the disease or get infected to a large degree.  Some have estimated we may have 33% infected already naturally, so we're at 50% when you add the vaccinations to date. 

The fact is the spread is down to about half of what it was just a couple of months ago.  We're running out of people to get infected as well.  Finally, herd immunity is a well-established medical understanding.  The writers of that article need to update their predictions.  They're wrong.

Correct, the number of infected people is estimated at 33% of the total US population and the latest infection and death numbers are about half from a couple months of ago. The steep spike in those numbers was caused primarily by the reckless and absolutely non essential Trump rallies, BLM street protests and riots, and also by the mass travels and get-togethers during Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. The current covid numbers are still more than twice as high as in July. Low points in June - 21K cases, in September 35K and in February 69K.

The covid fiasco is not confined only to US. In Sweden, the herd immunity attempt failed also miserably.

https://news.yahoo.com/sweden-plays-down-immunity-hopes-151842673.html
 
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LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #88 on: February 21, 2021, 12:36:46 pm »

Until a vaccine is widely available, we must suppress transmission by limiting contact with non-household members, and wearing masks and distancing when contact with others is unavoidable. These measures work and will limit unnecessary deaths and economic impact while we wait for an effective vaccine.[/i]

That's the right approach. This is something Trump should have ordered a year ago instead of ridiculing mask wearing and denying the covid pandemic.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #89 on: February 21, 2021, 12:41:17 pm »

Israeli data shows Pfizer vaccine nearly 99 percent effective at preventing COVID-19 death 2 weeks after 2nd dose
The early results on lab-confirmed infections are important because they show the vaccine may also prevent asymptomatic carriers from spreading the virus that causes Covid-19, something that hadnít been clear so far. Stopping transmission in this way is a key factor as countries seek to lift contact restrictions and re-open economies.
https://news.yahoo.com/israeli-data-shows-pfizer-vaccine-185500893.html

Could be due also to mandatory mask wearing.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #90 on: February 21, 2021, 01:23:19 pm »

Correct, the number of infected people is estimated at 33% of the total US population and the latest infection and death numbers are about half from a couple months of ago. The steep spike in those numbers was caused primarily by the reckless and absolutely non essential Trump rallies, BLM street protests and riots, and also by the mass travels and get-togethers during Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. The current covid numbers are still more than twice as high as in July. Low points in June - 21K cases, in September 35K and in February 69K.

The covid fiasco is not confined only to US. In Sweden, the herd immunity attempt failed also miserably.

https://news.yahoo.com/sweden-plays-down-immunity-hopes-151842673.html
 
Herd immunity didn't fail.  It has to reach a certain percentage for it to work.  Once you do, then the rest of the people are safe without the vaccine.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #91 on: February 21, 2021, 01:41:52 pm »

Could be due also to mandatory mask wearing.

I won't repeat what I think of mandatory mask wearing (I am already dangerously near to being banned)...

But I can photographically illustrate non-mandatory masked romance:

LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #92 on: February 21, 2021, 01:54:08 pm »

I won't repeat what I think of mandatory mask wearing (I am already dangerously near to being banned)...

But I can photographically illustrate non-mandatory masked romance:

Wearing a mask is a sound precaution at that stage. Once they move closer, they might need other protective device. Not-mandatory, but highly recommended.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #93 on: February 21, 2021, 02:16:10 pm »

I won't repeat what I think of mandatory mask wearing (I am already dangerously near to being banned)...

But I can photographically illustrate non-mandatory masked romance:
How do you flirt when you wear a mask?

Chris Calohan

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #94 on: February 21, 2021, 04:58:03 pm »

You let your hands do the talking...age old technology still works
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John Camp

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #95 on: February 21, 2021, 05:23:46 pm »

I won't repeat what I think of mandatory mask wearing (I am already dangerously near to being banned)...

But I can photographically illustrate non-mandatory masked romance:

You may have missed it, but I think the guy who would have banned you has been...banned.
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jeremyrh

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #96 on: February 22, 2021, 06:38:54 am »

That's exactly what's happening with COvid.
It's not, because:

Quote
we're also vaccinating the population.   
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jeremyrh

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #97 on: February 22, 2021, 06:41:23 am »

Herd immunity didn't fail.  It has to reach a certain percentage for it to work.  Once you do, then the rest of the people are safe without the vaccine.

But that percentage is very high. If you rely on it happening naturally you will get huge numbers of dead people.

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n394

"Covid-19: Is Manaus the final nail in the coffin for natural herd immunity?"
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #98 on: February 22, 2021, 08:37:43 am »

But that percentage is very high. If you rely on it happening naturally you will get huge numbers of dead people.

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n394

"Covid-19: Is Manaus the final nail in the coffin for natural herd immunity?"
I never advocated not using vaccines.  Anything that gets us up to herd immunity faster is better.

jeremyrh

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #99 on: February 22, 2021, 11:49:40 am »

In case anyone is interested in learning about the virus and how vaccines can help, this seems to be a good article:

https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/n05/rupert-beale/eeek
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