Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine

[Alan Klein]

The booster shot should lower the covid infection rate, but not by 100% and not for everyone.

https://www.vox.com/22839742/omicron-covid-19-winter-surge-vaccine-booster-forecast

Some dummies may feel secure and will travel, but many corporations are extending work-at-home plans, cancelling their participation at trade shows and laying off employees. So, indirectly the exploding omicron wave is hurting badly businesses, hospitals, and many innocent bystanders.

The article is four days old, too old for how fast Omicron is moving to conclude effectively.  The data is changing that quickly.    I have a suspicion that this variant is so contagious, it's going to go through populations like sh!t through a goose.  Stay at home, masks, nothing is going to hold it back. In two weeks (Dec 4th to Dec 18th) it went from 0% to 73% dominant variant; 90% in NYC.  It has tripled out here in NJ where I live.

My wife and I use KN95 and N95 masks.  But I wonder just how more effective they are and will be against Omicron?  Most people use cloth, surgical, and other cheap masks, knockoffs from China, more for show than effectiveness.  So many don't wear them properly.  My son-in-law is back 5 days at home rather than switching to 3+2 working in Manhattan.  Buildings are empty there.   Frankly, I don't know if cities and countries will ever recover.  Meanwhile, inflation is hitting everywhere.  My HOA fees went up 7%, coffee 14%, etc. What are people doing who aren't working?  How do they pay for things?

I see even the US Army is developing vaccines.  I didn't even know they were working on them.

US Army claims it is close to developing vaccine against all Covid variants and coronaviruses
Army-developed SpFN vaccine completed phase 1 of human trials earlier this year
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/covid-vaccine-omicron-variants-us-army-b1980687.html

[Chris Kern]

My wife and I use KN95 and N95 masks.  But I wonder just how more effective they are and will be against Omicron?

Assuming they have been properly fitted to your face, respirator-style masks (the Chinese-standard KN95, American-standard N95, and European-standard FFP2) should be as effective in protecting you against the omicron variant as they would against any other of the SARS-CoV-2 mutations.  I haven't seen any reports of evidence that the size of aerosols or other droplets emitted by infected individuals varies with the particular strain of the coronavirus that infected them.

[TechTalk]

Stay at home, masks, nothing is going to hold it back.

I'd like to reassure you that the Omicron variant is no more capable of kicking in the door to your home or ripping the mask off of your face, in order to infect you, than previous variants. Yes, it is more transmissible. The higher transmission rate is all the more reason to follow public health mitigation recommendations to wear masks, preferably better and properly fitted ones; socially distance; avoid large gatherings, particularly indoors; increase ventilation where possible; and regularly wash or sanitize your hands. Most importantly—get vaccinated and get a booster, for anyone that hasn't already.

If you look only at masks, or only at social distancing, or other mitigation efforts in isolation from each other; each plays a relatively small part. When you combine all of the mitigation efforts, they become much more effective. Combined mitigation efforts plus vaccines are your best protection from the virus and disease.

I'm concerned that if people believe that "nothing is going to hold it back", they will give up on these efforts and place themselves at greater risk of being infected as a result.

[TechTalk]

Frankly, I don't know if cities and countries will ever recover.

Given the history of cities and countries recovering from past plagues, pandemics, and the devastation from wars; it's a bit premature to worry that the sky is falling.

[Alan Klein]

Assuming they have been properly fitted to your face, respirator-style masks (the Chinese-standard KN95, American-standard N95, and European-standard FFP2) should be as effective in protecting you against the omicron variant as they would against any other of the SARS-CoV-2 mutations.  I haven't seen any reports of evidence that the size of aerosols or other droplets emitted by infected individuals varies with the particular strain of the coronavirus that infected them.

if the load requirements for Omicron for transmission is less than the other variants, then the masks won't work as efficiently. It has nothing to do with the size of the virus. Those could all be the same. But the quantity becomes a factor. So masks may not be as effective with the Omicron variant.

[Alan Klein]

Given the history of cities and countries recovering from past plagues, pandemics, and the devastation from wars; it's a bit premature to worry that the sky is falling.

If you lost your business, the sky has already fallen.

[digitaldog]

if the load requirements for Omicron for transmission is less than the other variants, then the masks won't work as efficiently.

But they still work far better than NO mask!
But again Alan, don't wear one.

So masks may not be as effective with the Omicron variant.

But they still work far better than NO mask!
But again Alan, don't wear one.

If you lost your business, the sky has already fallen.

Did you ever have your own business or is this another assumption based on no experience?
If you have only imagined it, you haven't experienced it.

[TechTalk]

If you lost your business, the sky has already fallen.

Losing your business may be a heartbreaking disappointment or a financial disaster, but it is not the end of the world. Even in non-pandemic times, businesses fail or go bankrupt with regularity and the investors or owners salvage what they can and move forward. Many successful entrepreneurs have had multiple business failures before achieving lasting success.

[Alan Klein]

Losing your business may be a heartbreaking disappointment or a financial disaster, but it is not the end of the world. Even in non-pandemic times, businesses fail or go bankrupt with regularity and the investors or owners salvage what they can and move forward. Many successful entrepreneurs have had multiple business failures before achieving lasting success.

Easy for you to say.  Meanwhile, it's cold comfort for the thousands who invested their life savings and lost everything. 

[Manoli]

Repost of a twitter thread by a Bob Wachter, Chair at UCSF Dept of Medicine
https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1473787861056901124

Bad news: Omicron has exploded in the U.S., weeks before we thought it would. As recently as 2 weeks ago, most experts thought this would be a January issue, not a December one. The rapid uptick nationally, particularly in cities like NYC, Miami, & Houston, is jaw-dropping

Good news: What goes up must come down, in life & Covid. The new data that Omicron cases in South Africa have peaked and are now falling is comforting. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/586968-south-africa-ground-zero-for-omicron-now-seeing…
Omicron may turn out to be a 6-8 week hurricane, doing a lot of damage but moving through quickly.

More good news: evidence for lower severity is increasingly persuasive, incl. new data from UK.
https://reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/hospital-stay-risk-omicron-is-40-45-lower-than-delta-uk-study-2021-12-22/…
How much less severe is not yet clear – I’m going with a 30-50% lower rate of hospitalization as my governing assumption, subject to change w/ more data.

More good news #2: In late '21, we have tools to “rescue” people, particularly those at-risk, if they get Covid. The main evidence-based tools are monoclonal antibodies and, as of today, the Pfizer drug Paxlovid. The MAbs reduce hospitalization by ~70%, Paxlovid by nearly 90%..

Bad news: The MAbs that your hospital has stocked (likely Regeneron or Lilly) no longer work against Omicron. The one that will work (GSK's Sotrovimab) is in massively short supply. Moreover, lab tests show some loss in GSK's efficacy as well.
https://nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03829-0….

Paxlovid, which got EUA today, is a true game-changer: a 5d pill that reduces risk of hospitalization by 89%.
https://cnbc.com/2021/12/22/fda-authorizes-pfizers-covid-treatment-pill-the-first-oral-antiviral-drug-cleared-during-the-pandemic.html…

But here too there are problems: you’ll need to get diagnosed quickly, & tests (whether PCR or antigen) are incredibly hard to come by and then you’ll need access to the drug. Pfizer anticipates having 180K doses by January 1 – there were 190,000 Americans dxed w/ Covid YESTERDAY! So as Covid cases soar, we'll see real bottlenecks in access to the meds (MAbs & Paxlovid mostly) that can truly lower risk.

Bad news: old incubation period rules (5d) aren’t right anymore. At least from Norway X-Mas party study, it looks shorter than that: 2-3d.
https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.50.2101147…

This’ll put a premium on earlier testing & faster tracing, both hard to do. We still don’t know what Omicron  does to the infectious period – maybe you get sick sooner but clear it faster? Dunno. We need to sort this out stat – if every infected MD/RN is forced to stay home for 7-10 days, I don’t see how we can staff our hospitals & clinics. By report, ( @nyulangone ) has gone to 5 days of isolation for asymptomatic vaccinated healthcare workers (w/ neg rapid tests days 4-5), which seems logical to me, though many will wait for CDC to bless this strategy. Fauci raised this yesterday as a crucial issue, and he’s right.

https://beckershospitalreview.com/infection-control/us-may-trim-isolation-period-for-asymptomatic-healthcare-workers-fauci-says.html… (

Good news: vax (& booster) still works for Omi. Bad news: you really need boost for real protection – 1 or 2 shots won’t cut it, & prior infection is of limited help. And we may end up needing a 4th shot, as Israel has begun for high-risk people.
https://nytimes.com/2021/12/22/world/middleeast/vaccine-booster-israel-covid.html… (1

And more bad news: 40% of our fellow citizens have made the foolish choice not to get a remarkably effective and safe vaccine that has saved hundreds of thousands of lives in the U.S. And if they haven’t taken it yet, I can’t imagine many will do it now, particularly as the “less severe” narrative takes hold (largely without the nuance and caveats it requires). These unvaccinated folks will almost certainly get Omicron. Luckily, the vast majority will survive. But tens of thousands will die unnecessarily, compounding the tragedy.

More bad news: After 2 yrs, we don’t understand much about Long Covid, & don’t know its prevalence w/ Omicron, after vax, etc. It remains a hardship for millions, and a lingering concern for me as I think about the prospect of getting even a “mild” case of Omicron.

Good news: it's possible that – when dust settles from this Omicron surge – we’ll find ourselves in a fairly good place: with a dominant virus that is, in fact, milder than Delta, with virtually everybody having some immunity from either infection or vaccination, and with ready access to testing and oral antivirals to help us manage a small number of ongoing cases – leading to lower rates of transmission and fewer bad outcomes.

And on that, boys & girls, I wish all fellow contributors, a safe and healthy holiday period.

[TechTalk]

Easy for you to say.  Meanwhile, it's cold comfort for the thousands who invested their life savings and lost everything. 

We've heard the complaint. What's your solution?

[Alan Klein]

We've heard the complaint. What's your solution?

You posited that the sky hasn't fallen yet.  I was only pointing out that the sky has fallen already for many people. 

[TechTalk]

What do people normally do when their business fails?

"According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as reported by Fundera, approximately 20 percent of small businesses fail within the first year. By the end of the second year, 30 percent of businesses will have failed. By the end of the fifth year, about half will have failed. And by the end of the decade, only 30 percent of businesses will remain — a 70 percent failure rate."

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/The True Failure Rate of Small Businesses

[Alan Klein]

What do people normally do when their business fails?

"According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as reported by Fundera, approximately 20 percent of small businesses fail within the first year. By the end of the second year, 30 percent of businesses will have failed. By the end of the fifth year, about half will have failed. And by the end of the decade, only 30 percent of businesses will remain — a 70 percent failure rate."

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/The True Failure Rate of Small Businesses

Well, let's hope they have a better year next year.

[TechTalk]

One last question, my original reply was to your concern that...

Frankly, I don't know if cities and countries will ever recover.

When I replied that...

Given the history of cities and countries recovering from past plagues, pandemics, and the devastation from wars; it's a bit premature to worry that the sky is falling.

You immediately changed the subject from your concern over whether "cities and countries will ever recover" to individuals losing businesses instead. Why did you deflect to another topic?

* By the way, I did acknowledge that: "Losing your business may be a heartbreaking disappointment or a financial disaster". Did you deflect because you didn't want to acknowledge "the history of cities and countries recovering from past plagues, pandemics, and the devastation from wars"?

[Alan Klein]

One last question, my original reply was to your concern that...

When I replied that...

You immediately changed the subject from your concern over whether "cities and countries will ever recover" to individuals losing businesses instead. Why did you deflect to another topic?

* By the way, I did acknowledge that: "Losing your business may be a heartbreaking disappointment or a financial disaster". Did you deflect because you didn't want to acknowledge "the history of cities and countries recovering from past plagues, pandemics, and the devastation from wars"?

I was just trying to point out that a lot of people have suffered much financially.  It's not just a matter of losing a business but feeding your family, paying rent or a mortgage, etc.  Of course, life goes on.  But some of us, myself included, have done OK, so far, through these troubled times. I'm sure you agree that we shouldn't forget those who haven't, especially in this holiday season.

[TechTalk]

I have sympathy year-round for people who have lost their business or their job and for others struggling to recover their lives, whatever the reason. I also have deep sympathy for the over 800,000 Americans that have died during the pandemic, who will never have a chance to recover their lives, and the 5.4 million that have died worldwide for whom life will not go on.

The sympathy that I have, for those grieving over their lost loved ones this holiday season, is beyond words.

[Manoli]

*The power of R()*

Considering the Omicron variant was first reported at the end of November in but a handful of cases in the UK, was there ever a better example of the need to be both pre-emptive and proactive ?
• In England around 1.2 million people were infected with Covid last week, or one in 45 of the population – a pandemic record. London estimated one in 30 people were infected last week. Active cases are currently guesstimated at circa double that.

And a postscript to Alan Klein on the J&J/AZ vaccine:
• An Oxford University lab study on AstraZeneca’s vaccine, Vaxzevria, showed that after a three-dose course of the vaccine, neutralising levels against Omicron were broadly similar to those against the Delta variant after two doses.

[Alan Klein]

*The power of R()*

Considering the Omicron variant was first reported at the end of November in but a handful of cases in the UK, was there ever a better example of the need to be both pre-emptive and proactive ?
• In England around 1.2 million people were infected with Covid last week, or one in 45 of the population – a pandemic record. London estimated one in 30 people were infected last week. Active cases are currently guesstimated at circa double that.

And a postscript to Alan Klein on the J&J/AZ vaccine:
• An Oxford University lab study on AstraZeneca’s vaccine, Vaxzevria, showed that after a three-dose course of the vaccine, neutralising levels against Omicron were broadly similar to those against the Delta variant after two doses.

I have a feeling that Omicron is going through the populations so quickly, we won't have time to do much about it.

[LesPalenik]

Omicron infections are exploding also in USA. 267K cases yesterday, which is more than in December 2020. That compares with a low of 13K Delta cases in July 2021.
The peak last year (actually early this year) was on Jan 5, 2021 with 306K cases. Based on the shape of the current infection curve, the infections in the first week of January could reach 350-400K.