Sony A1 announced

[shadowblade]

I don't expect the price to stay at the current level, either.

Right now, it has no real competition - there is no camera out there, SLR or mirrorless, that can match it for both resolution and speed/AF simultaneously. Many can do one or the other, but not both.

But Canon isn't going to take this lying down. They will release a competitor, probably within the next year. Quad-pixel AF is in the wings. The Olympics this year may or may not go ahead, but there will be a soccer World Cup next year, providing incentive to release a similar camera, as well as a few mirrorless superteles. We don't know what the A1's weather sealing and construction will be like, but it's a safe bet that the sealing on Canon's top-of-the-line model will be solid and the mechanical parts reliable

With the release of these cameras, slowing development in SLRs and existing action SLRs starting to get older and wear out, there will be many end-users considering their future direction on the hardware front and a move into mirrorless, and the decision on which lens/accessory ecosystem to buy into is one of the biggest decisions, with the potential to influence sales and brand loyalty for the next 20 years Canon knows this from their own experience with digital SLRs, where they got an early market share advantage, then kept it, even when their cameras no longer technically kept up. Sony surely knows this, too, from watching Canon's experience with DSLRs, and from their own experience getting early points in the mirrorless game. If Canon can release an equivalent body for 5000-5500 USD, it could create a real price incentive for customers to move in Canon's direction, and put huge pressure on Sony to reduce the price of the A1, not for profits now, but for market share down the track. And, of course, it means that Sony needs to get the weather sealing, mechanical reliability and firmware/UI right. You can afford to have an A7-series body that isn't as sealed as a 5D or D850, if it has other advantages. But you can't afford this with the A1, when you have a competitor you know is going to get it right and are targeting customers who will care about these things.

[shadowblade]

I don't think comparing early digital cameras' prices with today's models is meaningful. Some of first Kodak digital cameras in the '90s (on Canon or Nikon bodies) were going initially for $20K+.

I would agree - as soon as a competitor to the A1 exists.

The D850 and A7r4 brought the price of high-resolution cameras with solid AF systems down to 'normal' levels. Previously, the price of such cameras was stratospheric - you could have resolution or AF at a reasonable price, but, if you wanted both, you were looking at extreme prices for the 1Ds3 or D3x.

The A1 is a step above these cameras AF-wise, and also has 8k video. As long as it has no competitor, its price will remain high. Once Canon brings out an R1, though, competition will bring prices down, and there may be added pressure from a future A7r5, with high resolution and an AF system even better than the A7r4 (not A1 level, but probably approaching original A9 level)

[mcbroomf]

I don't think comparing early digital cameras' prices with today's models is meaningful. Some of first Kodak digital cameras in the '90s (on Canon or Nikon bodies) were going initially for $20K+.

I deliberately left the early (exorbitant) CCD cameras out and just listed full frame CMOS bodies which I think is reasonable.  YMMV of course ...

[chez]

I don't expect the price to stay at the current level, either.

Right now, it has no real competition - there is no camera out there, SLR or mirrorless, that can match it for both resolution and speed/AF simultaneously. Many can do one or the other, but not both.

But Canon isn't going to take this lying down. They will release a competitor, probably within the next year. Quad-pixel AF is in the wings. The Olympics this year may or may not go ahead, but there will be a soccer World Cup next year, providing incentive to release a similar camera, as well as a few mirrorless superteles. We don't know what the A1's weather sealing and construction will be like, but it's a safe bet that the sealing on Canon's top-of-the-line model will be solid and the mechanical parts reliable

With the release of these cameras, slowing development in SLRs and existing action SLRs starting to get older and wear out, there will be many end-users considering their future direction on the hardware front and a move into mirrorless, and the decision on which lens/accessory ecosystem to buy into is one of the biggest decisions, with the potential to influence sales and brand loyalty for the next 20 years Canon knows this from their own experience with digital SLRs, where they got an early market share advantage, then kept it, even when their cameras no longer technically kept up. Sony surely knows this, too, from watching Canon's experience with DSLRs, and from their own experience getting early points in the mirrorless game. If Canon can release an equivalent body for 5000-5500 USD, it could create a real price incentive for customers to move in Canon's direction, and put huge pressure on Sony to reduce the price of the A1, not for profits now, but for market share down the track. And, of course, it means that Sony needs to get the weather sealing, mechanical reliability and firmware/UI right. You can afford to have an A7-series body that isn't as sealed as a 5D or D850, if it has other advantages. But you can't afford this with the A1, when you have a competitor you know is going to get it right and are targeting customers who will care about these things.

With a decreasing market the camera business is in, prices will go up, not down. That's just how markets work. I highly doubt Canon's flagship will be in the $5,000 range...more like $7,000.

As far as the A1 being tough enough...AP has selected Sony as their provider and I'm sure AP had a huge influence on the A1 camera.

[shadowblade]

With a decreasing market the camera business is in, prices will go up, not down. That's just how markets work. I highly doubt Canon's flagship will be in the $5,000 range...more like $7,000.

As far as the A1 being tough enough...AP has selected Sony as their provider and I'm sure AP had a huge influence on the A1 camera.

It's not the high-end market that's decreasing. It's the low-end market that's collapsing. Essentially, consumers are segregating into two camps - 'I need proper gear' vs 'Phone cameras are good enough' - with little in between.

The high end has always been low-volume, high price. If anything, volume at the high end (A7r/A9/D850/5D/R5) has increased, as some of those who were previously in the middle joined the 'I need proper gear' camp, even as the majority joined the iPhone camp.

Also, this isn't a 'business as usual' time for the camera market. Canon and Nikon are just getting into the high-end mirrorless game, with neither having a mirrorless answer to the A1 (among SLRs, the D850 probably comes closest). There is market share up for grabs, and, even at the high end, buyers who are not yet locked into a particular lens/accessory ecosystem are still price-sensitive. Existing SLR market share counts for nothing, since buyers will need new lenses to make the most of the new cameras anyway. Canon will want to gain as much market share as possible - they were top dog during the DSLR era, and won't like going back to second fiddle. Sony will want to maintain their market position. 'Business as usual' is for when market shares are more or less stable, when Canon users are locked into their systems and Sony users into theirs, when a new Sony A1iii body isn't really competing for the same buyers as a new Canon R1iii or Nikon Z9ii. Right now, it's a race for market share, not profit on camera bodies. And camera bodies aren't a hugely profitable business anyway - it's the lenses that make money.

[chez]

It's not the high-end market that's decreasing. It's the low-end market that's collapsing. Essentially, consumers are segregating into two camps - 'I need proper gear' vs 'Phone cameras are good enough' - with little in between.

The high end has always been low-volume, high price. If anything, volume at the high end (A7r/A9/D850/5D/R5) has increased, as some of those who were previously in the middle joined the 'I need proper gear' camp, even as the majority joined the iPhone camp.

Also, this isn't a 'business as usual' time for the camera market. Canon and Nikon are just getting into the high-end mirrorless game, with neither having a mirrorless answer to the A1 (among SLRs, the D850 probably comes closest). There is market share up for grabs, and, even at the high end, buyers who are not yet locked into a particular lens/accessory ecosystem are still price-sensitive. Existing SLR market share counts for nothing, since buyers will need new lenses to make the most of the new cameras anyway. Canon will want to gain as much market share as possible - they were top dog during the DSLR era, and won't like going back to second fiddle. Sony will want to maintain their market position. 'Business as usual' is for when market shares are more or less stable, when Canon users are locked into their systems and Sony users into theirs, when a new Sony A1iii body isn't really competing for the same buyers as a new Canon R1iii or Nikon Z9ii. Right now, it's a race for market share, not profit on camera bodies. And camera bodies aren't a hugely profitable business anyway - it's the lenses that make money.

But for manufactures like Canon, they've taken a big hit on revenues which much of was brought in by the low end cameras. With decreasing unit sales, the only way to keep the revenue high is to increase prices. You'll be seeing camera and lens prices going up...they have no choice. Simple economics at play.

I don't believe it's a race for market share...just look at the über expensive glass Canon has been releasing. Do you really think $3,000 28-70 lens is designed to attract market share? How about a $2,300 50 1.2 lens? A $2,600 85 1.2. Notice the price of all these lenses...

[SimonB]

I don't think comparing early digital cameras' prices with today's models is meaningful. Some of first Kodak digital cameras in the '90s (on Canon or Nikon bodies) were going initially for $20K+.

You're paying for the class of device though, it's no accident that the A1 is priced in exactly the same region as a D6 or 1D.

I don't see anything especially noteworthy about the price of the A1.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

You're paying for the class of device though, it's no accident that the A1 is priced in exactly the same region as a D6 or 1D.

I don't see anything especially noteworthy about the price of the A1.

You are right.

I never really paid attention to those cameras, as I always saw them as niche, specialty tools for professional sport photographers.

[KLaban]

I really don't see a problem with the A1 pricing.

It'll be bought by those who need it, for example sports photographers and those who need to capture their kids irises at a zillion frames a second, etc, etc.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

I really don't see a problem with the A1 pricing.

It'll be bought by those who need it, for example sports photographers...

For instance:

[BernardLanguillier]

I really don't see a problem with the A1 pricing.

It'll be bought by those who need it, for example sports photographers and those who need to capture their kids irises at a zillion frames a second, etc, etc.

Exactly.

Besides the value delivered per $ is impressive.

Cheers,
Bernard

[faberryman]

I really don't see a problem with the A1 pricing.

It'll be bought by those who need it, for example sports photographers and those who need to capture their kids irises at a zillion frames a second, etc, etc.

And it will be bought by those who don't need it, but want it, for whatever reason, rational or irrational.

[faberryman]

Besides the value delivered per $ is impressive.

Kind of depends on how you measure value for what is offered.

[BernardLanguillier]

Kind of depends on how you measure value for what is offered.

Indeed.

I guess I was referring to the range of situations in which the camera will be proficient at capturing images matching the intent of the photographer.

But I agree with you. The value will be poor if the range of situations your intent generates is well within the scope much cheaper cameras can handle well. And many photographers producing creative photography will be not see enough value.

Then there is more symbolic value resulting from the satisfaction of owning one of the best cameras on the market.

Cheers,
Bernard

[chez]

And it will be bought by those who don't need it, but want it, for whatever reason, rational or irrational.

Like all sports cars and many high end trucks driving around the city. So what!

[kers]

Like all sports cars and many high end trucks driving around the city. So what!

I want!

[faberryman]

Like all sports cars and many high end trucks driving around the city. So what!

When Klaben said "It'll be bought by those who need it...", I drew the inference that he thought it would not be bought by those who did not need it. Which is why I said a lot of people who don't need it, but want it, will buy it. I apologize if I drew the wrong inference.

[kers]

I remember i was angry at some person with money that bought a camera as a luxury item, while I, the photographer, could not afford it.
( in that case please buy a Gold Edition Leica- i will not care)

[KLaban]

When Klaben said "It'll be bought by those who need it...", I drew the inference that he thought it would not be bought by those who did not need it. Which is why I said a lot of people who don't need it, but want it, will buy it. I apologize if I drew the wrong inference.

Far from it, I was, I thought, subtly hinting otherwise.

 

[KLaban]

Jeremy, please forgive the lack of description of the link below, but to do so would kind of ruin the point. GFX 100S related.
https://youtu.be/z35eiJ8eFmE