Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[Alan Klein]

Think of it this way - if everyone had to make their own retirement provisions, the ones who hadn’t been able to, due to low wages, ill health or whatever, would be a starving mob at the gates of Klein Mansion and you’d have to spend all that money on security guards.

We never had mobs before social security.  Of course, desperate cases received help.  SS should have been left as an insurance program for diabed.  But they turned it into a retirement program.  Before SS, most people saved.  They were encouraged to save.  You were able to make real interest on your savings. Today those things aren't true. Government taxes so much, there nothing left over for savings.  Tax deductions for SS hurt the poorest people.  It's such a large portion of their income compared to richer people.  Think of all the money they'd have available to save if you didn't deduct 6.2 % off their salary every week.  Also, the 6.2% the employer matches would be available for higher salaries.  When I worked for NYC government, for the first four years, I didn't have to pay SS.  It was a deal NYC made with the IRS so they didn't have to pay their 6.2% either.  I took all that money that would have been otherwise deducted and saved it.  Can you imagine how much I could have saved if I could do that all my working life? All that interest would be compounded for forty or fifty years.  Same with other people.

In addition, you no longer can get any interest on your savings.  Banks used to give 3% for straight savings accounts. Today it's near zero, even less in Europe. Minus interest rates! Incredible.  That hurts people saving for retirement and people in retirement who need that interest to supplement their savings and SS. Government printing devalues their pensions and SS.  If the government got out of this business, people would do better.  They would have no reason to "riot".

[Alan Klein]

Or pay for it the old fashioned way - by printing some money.

Raising taxes gets you un-reelected.  Printing money never does. Of course, inflation is a hidden tax stolen from you in the middle of the night.   It hurts the poorest people the most because inflation raises the cost of real assets owned by richer people.  YOu see that in the stock market today. The poor just pay more for food and shelter.  There's nothing left to save. This is why there's such a huge difference in wealth.  It's all due to printing needed for "free" health care, SS, medicare, defense,  and other programs nations can't afford.  But politicians won't cut because they don't want to lose the vote.  $600?  How about $2000?  Why not $10,000? In America, the Republicans are getting as bad as the Democrats. 

[jeremyrh]

What's the rate of inflation today ?

[LesPalenik]

In addition, you no longer can get any interest on your savings.  Banks used to give 3% for straight savings accounts. Today it's near zero, even less in Europe. Minus interest rates! Incredible.  That hurts people saving for retirement and people in retirement who need that interest to supplement their savings and SS. Government printing devalues their pensions and SS.  If the government got out of this business, people would do better.  They would have no reason to "riot".

The bank accounts are for losers. Enter Elon Musk universe. If you had invested your money in the Tesla stock, it would have appreciated 700% just this year. $10,000 invested in TSLA in 2017 is now worth one million. I know that's not enough to take SpaceX trip to the International Space Station, but it would pay for a number of  exclusive photo safaris and trips to Antarctica.

Those SpaceX trips cost $55 million, but you get to stay at ISS for full 10 days. If Elon keeps making more and more cars, then in a few years TSLA stock could appreciate enough to pay for such a trip. And the best thing that those trips are financed privately, there are no governmental space agencies involved. If you are afraid of heights, you'll be able to take soon instead a much cheaper ride in Elon's Hyperloop underground shuttle in Las Vegas.

[faberryman]

To support some official's perverse arguments the money isn't ours, that they didn't have to keep it in trust for us, is to argue in favor of a thief that he should be allowed to keep his stolen goods.  Why would you support such a thing?

This is yet another strawman, one of the logical fallacies you are so fond of. It just never ends.

[faberryman]

What's the rate of inflation today ?

"The annual inflation rate for the United States is 1.2% for the 12 months ended November 2020, the same increase as previously, according to U.S. Labor Department data published on December 10, 2020."

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

[jeremyrh]

"The annual inflation rate for the United States is 1.2% for the 12 months ended November 2020, the same increase as previously, according to U.S. Labor Department data published on December 10, 2020."

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

Exactly. So all this profligate printing of money has had rather little effect on Alan’s savings !!

[faberryman]

Exactly. So all this profligate printing of money has had rather little effect on Alan’s savings !!

The way to save for retirement is to stop buying new cameras. Think if you had stuck with film, you wouldn't have needed to buy a new camera since sometime in the 1970s, and if you had invested all the money you spent on new cameras for the past 50 years in the stock market, you'd be a millionaire.

[Robert Roaldi]

Didn't Reagan decrease corporate taxes? Clinton was nice to Wall Street. Obama bailed out Wall Street. Didn't Bush decrease corporate taxes? Trump did decrease them. I don't get it, all that was supposed to send the economy into orbit, so isn't everyone rich beyond their wildest yet? Why does Alan think the sky is falling then?

Compared to the rest of the world, the US doesn't have an ultra generous welfare state and health car is not publicly funded. Where is all the money going? Shouldn't it have trickled down to everyone by now. 



My mother is in a nursing home. There's no mention of Star Wars there and her bed doesn't flip up into the wall. Maybe that's only in New York where real estate is really expensive. Are those beds motorized? How do those old people lift them up that high. I have trouble lifting my mattress to change the sheets.

[TechTalk]

Social Security is mainly a retirement program.  Sure, there are payments for disabled and survivors, a small percentage of Americans.  But it's sold as a retirement program by the government and most of its payments are just for that.  To support some official's perverse arguments the money isn't ours, that they didn't have to keep it in trust for us, is to argue in favor of a thief that he should be allowed to keep his stolen goods.  Why would you support such a thing?

You continue to exhibit an extreme lack of knowledge about Social Security. The only thing that you got right is that most of the payments go to retirees. However, one-third of those covered receive benefits from Social Security prior to retirement. 26% of all those covered receive disability payments before retiring with the percentage increasing with age.

For decades after its inception, Social Security paid out in benefits approximately what was received in payments to the system. In the vast majority of years, a small surplus went into the Social Security Trust Fund to provide a cushion to continue full benefits in the scattered years where there was a shortfall in the income/payments ratio. In the early 1970s, actuaries looked out over the horizon of the next several decades and projected a shortfall in the future which would require a reduction in benefits. Carter, Regan, and Congress, began to address the issue and began to make adjustments in the system. Regan and Congress created the bipartisan National Commission on Social Security Reform in 1981.

https://en.wikipedia.org/Social_Security_Trust_Fund/Social_Security_Trust_Fund_Chart

https://www.ssa.gov/history/Trust Fund Receipts-Payments-Balance By Year

Thru good faith bipartisan negotiations—first led by commission members Senators Dole and Moynihan and later Regan and Tip O'Neill—legislative reforms were enacted in 1983, with large bipartisan majorities, to dramatically increase the Trust Fund surplus which insured payment stability for the following 50-years. The Social Security Trust Fund has continued to increase ever since and currently stands at a surplus of nearly 3 trillion dollars. There are sufficient reserves to continue the current level of payments until about 2035, but Congress will need to act to continue the current payout level beyond then. There are several years left to do this, but sooner will be better than later. You can expect ever increasing pressure on Congress to act as Social Security is extremely popular and the number of those receiving retirement benefits is growing.

https://www.urban.org/Myth-and-Reality-of-the-Safety-Net-The-1983-Social-Security-Reforms.pdf

https://www.cbpp.org/blog/social-security-its-not-1983

I support Social Security because it has successfully done what was intended—to dramatically reduce poverty among the elderly—for decades and can continue to do so. It's a government program with very low overhead; that is popular; and successful. Those are the things that those of an antigovernment ideology can't stand and they will use any sort of spurious argument to attack the program.

Unfortunately, your kids and mine will most likely never see a dime from the program.

That will depend on the citizens and who they elect. Electing officials with a bipartisan attitude, like Joe Biden, is a good place to begin.

By then, there won't be enough cheese left for a mouse to get a tooth in.

It's your understanding of Social Security that resembles cheese—Swiss cheese with gigantic holes and very little cheese.

[faberryman]

My mother is in a nursing home. There's no mention of Star Wars there and her bed doesn't flip up into the wall. Maybe that's only in New York where real estate is really expensive. Are those beds motorized? How do those old people lift them up that high. I have trouble lifting my mattress to change the sheets.

Well, it is only the back of the bed that goes up and down, from lying down to sitting up, so you do have to use your imagination if you are going to have a dog fight with a TIE Fighter. The motor that raises and lowers the back makes a fairly convincing sound of your X-Wing's wings deploying to fighting position.

My mattress is so heavy I can't pick it up either, so I need to be wearing a truss to change the sheets. Of course, ask yourself: who needs sheets? Won't a blanket do? When I was trying the mattress out at the mattress store, I just lay down on it. Seemed pretty comfortable. I never thought to try to pick it up. I have made a lot of mistakes like that over the course of my life. I try to make only new mistakes, but occasionally I make the same mistake twice. If you only do it occasionally, you can get away with blaming it on your wife. I doubt I'll make the mattress mistake twice. This is probably my last mattress.

[John Camp]

We never had mobs before social security. <BIG SNIP>  If the government got out of this business, people would do better.  They would have no reason to "riot".

With the covid continuing, you have leisure time to read history. You could have the books delivered from Amazon, disease free as far as we know. In any case, you could start with this brief entry, about the "Bonus Army," pre-Social Security.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonus_Army

[Robert Roaldi]

My mattress is so heavy I can't pick it up either, so I need to be wearing a truss to change the sheets. Of course, ask yourself: who needs sheets?

You may have a point. I used to own a sleeping bag, that's one way to avoid sheets. Something happened to it, it's no longer in the house anywhere but for the life of me I can't remember what went wrong with it. There was a time when forgetting something like that would have bothered me, but no more. You just have to let some things go. That's the advice I'd give Alan if I could. He worries way too much.

I'm not that concerned about Star Wars in my nursing home. I was never a big fan.


I saw an article somewhere online about how the "Proud Boys" are bad-mouthing a newly emerging group called "Proud Girls". I didn't read much past the first 2-3 paragraphs, so I can't give you any details. I'm sure Google knows. With their spiritual leader Trump gone soon, I wonder if we'll see more of those groups start to eat each other.

[faberryman]

I saw an article somewhere online about how the "Proud Boys" are bad-mouthing a newly emerging group called "Proud Girls". I didn't read much past the first 2-3 paragraphs, so I can't give you any details. I'm sure Google knows. With their spiritual leader Trump gone soon, I wonder if we'll see more of those groups start to eat each other.

Right. Proud Boys aren't keen on Proud Girls. Proud Boys need someone at home to wash, dry and fold the camo, preferably barefoot, pregnant, and chained to the stove.

"Don’t ride our coattails,” they groused. “Want to support us? Get married, have babies, and take care of your family.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/proud-boys-are-at-war-with-their-proud-girls-female-extremist-wing

Of course, the Girl Scouts are complaining about The Boy Scouts poaching their members. They even sued them. I not sure why anyone would join either group.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/girls-scouts-accuse-boy-scouts-of-poaching-members/ar-BB1cijvN?ocid=uxbndlbing

[Alan Klein]

Exactly. So all this profligate printing of money has had rather little effect on Alan’s savings !!

Government inflation figures are BS.  They keep changing the basket of goods figured to calculate it and keep it low.  That way they don't have to increase SS payments as much as they by law must do every year.  Also, when things like steak get too expensive, they change that item in their calculations to hamburger meat. Then they claim the cost of meat hasn't gone up as much.  Well, that's true.  Except for your standard of living has decreased because you're eating dog food.

Since I moved into my house 7 years ago, the value has gone up 40% according to [Google - Zillow].  Even if they're right by half that's still 20%.  That's inflation.   In seven years my property taxes have gone up 23%.  That's inflation.  THe cost to purchase stocks, just like real estate, has gone up even a larger percent.  That's inflation too. 

Here are the real inflation rates if you use original methods from 1980.  Way higher.  They show what happens when the government puts their thumb on the scale.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

[Alan Klein]

The bank accounts are for losers. Enter Elon Musk universe. If you had invested your money in the Tesla stock, it would have appreciated 700% just this year. $10,000 invested in TSLA in 2017 is now worth one million. I know that's not enough to take SpaceX trip to the International Space Station, but it would pay for a number of  exclusive photo safaris and trips to Antarctica.

Those SpaceX trips cost $55 million, but you get to stay at ISS for full 10 days. If Elon keeps making more and more cars, then in a few years TSLA stock could appreciate enough to pay for such a trip. And the best thing that those trips are financed privately, there are no governmental space agencies involved. If you are afraid of heights, you'll be able to take soon instead a much cheaper ride in Elon's Hyperloop underground shuttle in Las Vegas.

You're right about bank accounts. The problem is when you're retired, it's very risky taking chances on other assets like stocks.  You could be dead before a down market recovers.  Of course, the poor have no investment in things like Tesla.  They're trying to get by paycheck to paycheck.  Rich people have money to invest and because the fed prints and drives the price of assets higher, they are the ones making out. The government perverts everything.

[TechTalk]

We never had mobs before social security.

You had 35% or more of the elderly population living in poverty. Now it's under 10% due directly to Social Security.

SS should have been left as an insurance program for diabed.  But they turned it into a retirement program.

Social Security was NOT "an insurance program for diabed [disabled].  But they turned it into a retirement program". It was the opposite—a retirement insurance program which added disability insurance much later. It was not "turned it into a retirement program". It was always a retirement insurance program.

Before SS, most people saved.  They were encouraged to save.  You were able to make real interest on your savings.

And yet, 35% or more of the elderly lived in poverty. You can still make real interest on your savings. There are a wide variety of investments that offer a steady reasonable rate of return, but a traditional bank savings account would be a poor way to invest your savings.

Today those things aren't true. Government taxes so much, there nothing left over for savings.

How do you then explain the tremendous amount of money that pours into 401(k) plans and IRA contributions every year?

[Alan Klein]

You continue to exhibit an extreme lack of knowledge about Social Security. The only thing that you got right is that most of the payments go to retirees. However, one-third of those covered receive benefits from Social Security prior to retirement. 26% of all those covered receive disability payments before retiring with the percentage increasing with age.

For decades after its inception, Social Security paid out in benefits approximately what was received in payments to the system. In the vast majority of years, a small surplus went into the Social Security Trust Fund to provide a cushion to continue full benefits in the scattered years where there was a shortfall in the income/payments ratio. In the early 1970s, actuaries looked out over the horizon of the next several decades and projected a shortfall in the future which would require a reduction in benefits. Carter, Regan, and Congress, began to address the issue and began to make adjustments in the system. Regan and Congress created the bipartisan National Commission on Social Security Reform in 1981.

https://en.wikipedia.org/Social_Security_Trust_Fund/Social_Security_Trust_Fund_Chart

https://www.ssa.gov/history/Trust Fund Receipts-Payments-Balance By Year

Thru good faith bipartisan negotiations—first led by commission members Senators Dole and Moynihan and later Regan and Tip O'Neill—legislative reforms were enacted in 1983, with large bipartisan majorities, to dramatically increase the Trust Fund surplus which insured payment stability for the following 50-years. The Social Security Trust Fund has continued to increase ever since and currently stands at a surplus of nearly 3 trillion dollars. There are sufficient reserves to continue the current level of payments until about 2035, but Congress will need to act to continue the current payout level beyond then. There are several years left to do this, but sooner will be better than later. You can expect ever increasing pressure on Congress to act as Social Security is extremely popular and the number of those receiving retirement benefits is growing.

https://www.urban.org/Myth-and-Reality-of-the-Safety-Net-The-1983-Social-Security-Reforms.pdf

https://www.cbpp.org/blog/social-security-its-not-1983

I support Social Security because it has successfully done what was intended—to dramatically reduce poverty among the elderly—for decades and can continue to do so. It's a government program with very low overhead; that is popular; and successful. Those are the things that those of an antigovernment ideology can't stand and they will use any sort of spurious argument to attack the program.

That will depend on the citizens and who they elect. Electing officials with a bipartisan attitude, like Joe Biden, is a good place to begin.

It's your understanding of Social Security that resembles cheese—Swiss cheese with gigantic holes and very little cheese.

Of course people depend on Social Security.  After all, how can people save when 6.2% of their salaries are taken from them for it?  Plus another 6.2% that employers contribute in matching funds.  That's 12.4% and a lot of cheese to save it they let you.  If you and I could save that 6.2%, we'd have triple the amount with interest available in retirement.  A lot more than SS gives you.  And you could leave anything left when you die to your heirs. 

That's the way the government work.  First, they break your legs.  Then they tell you only they can provide the crutches to help you.  They did that with Covid shutting down businesses.  Then they tell you only they can save your business (which they can't).  It's the same with SS.  They take your money so you can't save for retirement.  Then you have to believe in SS because the government has the crutches.  So now we're all dependent on jerk bureaucrats who care little about us.  To believe that Biden or some other government official is going to save you, well, you're kidding yourself.  Good luck.  They can't print enough to do that. 

[TechTalk]

When I worked for NYC government, for the first four years, I didn't have to pay SS.  It was a deal NYC made with the IRS so they didn't have to pay their 6.2% either.

No... It was not "a deal NYC made with the IRS". There was an exemption in the Social Security law for workers that were covered under local or state government pensions. You and New York City were covered under that exemption in the law. No "deal" was made with the IRS.

[faberryman]

Government inflation figures are BS.  They keep changing the basket of goods figured to calculate it and keep it low.  That way they don't have to increase SS payments as much as they by law must do every year.  Also, when things like steak get too expensive, they change that item in their calculations to hamburger meat. Then they claim the cost of meat hasn't gone up as much.  Well, that's true.  Except for your standard of living has decreased because you're eating dog food.

Are you eating dog food? I could have sworn you said your wife encouraged you to stock up on those special steaks you like before the price went up back in the spring when the meatpacking plants were getting hit hard by the coronavirus. I think you said you liked lamb chops too.

I haven't done a deep dive but the first site I came to when I googled "basket of goods" said that the government checks the price of 80,000 items each month. Seems like swapping hamburger for steak wouldn't have much effect on the aggregate price of 80,000 items.

I just go to the grocery store and buy regular stuff. Prices seem pretty stable to me. I've got nothing to complain about on the inflation front. Except maybe smartphones. Have you seen the price of smartphones? I won't be buying a new smartphone anytime soon. My smartphone is smart enough for me. It's a phone, right? It sits in the charger most of the day. My wife makes me carry it with me when I walk my dogs in case I get hit by a truck or something. I'm not sure why she thinks I am going to be able to call her and ask her to come pick me up if I get hit by a truck, but I have mostly learned not to ask questions.

Price of real estate probably goes up more than general items, and when the value of your home goes up your property taxes go up. That's just kind of the way it is. If you figured inflation based on a can of beans instead of real estate, you might come up with a lower number. I think that's why they use a basket of goods to determine inflation, you know, so one item doesn't skew the results. I am happy the value of my house is going up. When my wife and I die, my kids will get a little financial boost. But, they'll earn it. They'll have to haul all my photographs down to the dump in order to sell it.

Price of stocks have gone up. You are right about that. Most people think that's a good thing. If you buy low and sell high you can make some money and only pay capital gains tax. You are the only person I have ever met who has complained when the stock market went up.

I am sorry you have gotten gypped all your life, and the government has stolen all your money. I guess I'd be bitter too.